acowa - Sure the cost of grading had something to do with your three examples. The guy started the auctions at $5.99. Why did he choose to start them at $5.99? If a guy like you needs a card you would have been willing to pay more if you had to. A few cards will always fall through the cracks at minimums, be it $5.99, $7.99, or $9.99. A guy sends in cards, keeps the ones he wants or needs, and then blows the rest out "at his cost". The only reason he is willing to put $5.99 on it is because he didn't pay $8 or $10 to grade it.
Also, gemint writes - I may wait and see if a $5 grading special ever appears for vintage commons. regarding his common 72's.
Gemint has the ability to pay $5 or $6 for his 72's in PSA 8. He won't get all the ones back that he needs in 8's, but he will get a nice chunk. Since he knows this is what it will cost him, he's not going to be an eager buyer of 72's at any price until he sees what he needs after sending his own stuff in.
I'm not saying that low grading fees are the only reason explaining the "drop" in price of the most common cards in a set. Buyers take everything into consideration when they decide to place a bid, and how much that bid will be. Their cost to "do it themselves" comes into consideration. Eventually they get down to needing the tougher cards which they haven't been able to do themselves, and those are the kinds of cards you consistently see selling for above average prices.
I recently deleted my 1965 set from the registry and will be selling them (all 8's) on ebay over the course of the next two weeks..starting tonight actually. I have turned my attention towards smaller sets....1954 Red Hearts, 1963 Fleer and 1964 Giants in PSA 8 or better.
I figured that was the way you were going. I just picked up a really sweet Giants set, and will be grading it out soon. Send me an email with your price requirements on the Red Hearts. I know of some sources.
Brian psa1965topps@yahoo.com
Where have you gone Dave Vargha CU turns its lonely eyes to you What's the you say, Mrs Robinson Vargha bucks have left and gone away?
I had a number of reasons to bail out of the 65's. I was currently at 11% (at one time I was over 20%..I started in Feb.) so I still had a ton of stars and semi-stars still to get...so it was not to late to get out (ie. selling say 400+ cards on ebay). Do not get me wrong....1965 Topps is a great set and I may revisit it sometime in the future.
Also...small/regional sets gives a collector like myself an added feeling of accomplishment where I can actually complete the set in a reasonable amount of time and not spend a fortune to do it (ie. put the money towards stars/semistars rather than 500+ commons).
Since there is not a ton of Red Hearts or 63 Fleer's available on eBay at any one time...I picked the 64 Giants so that I can keep adding to the registry on a regular basis.
I believe that Acowa and Waittil both have some valid points in the discussion of the price of grading vs the market price of graded cards. On the demand side, the price of grading is important for people who have raw cards, or can easily obtain raw cards, to grade. If they are good at selecting the cards, then the price they are willing to pay for a card is basically the price of grading plus the price of the raw card, assuming they want to have a graded card instead of a raw card. If no one wants a graded card, however, then the price can fall well below the price of grading. For example, who would pay $6 for a 1972 PSA 4 common card?? Likewise, since the price of modern cards is so low, it will be hard to eve have PSA 8's reach the price of grading.
Now when demand is low, and the price of common graded cards is only at the price of a raw card, plus a $6 grading fee, then the supply will stop, because who is going to spend the time and money in shipping and preparation to send cards in to PSA for no profit, when not all of the cards will be 8's. So for common cards that are easy to find in nm/mt, the price equilibrium will be around the price of grading, plus the price of the raw card, plus about a dollar for the hassle of grading. If peoiple still send in cards hoping to get a 9, then the price equilibrium could fall below the cost of grading due to the supply of "9's that turned out to be 8's"
Now when the underlying raw cards are limited, as in the 50's cards, then the price will be set by the scarcity of the card, because the option of sending in cheap raw cards doesn't exist. For these cards, the price of grading is not nearly so important. PSA is smart enough to realize this, which is why you don't see grading specials for 50's cards. If they ever do one, it will be primarily for public relations reasons, and not because it will make more money.
So what i am saying is that for 70's commons, the price equilibrium should be at just above the cost of grading, unless suddenly the number of collectors increases tremendously so as to make commons to grade hard to come by. For 50's commons, the price is set by the scarcity of the card, and grading costs play little role in the value. What about 60's???? that all depends on whether there are tons of cards out there like Davallillo says, or not too many, Like zardoz argues. I think that the answer could be that there are plenty of some of the commons, and way too few of others, such that high pop cards will settle near grading plus raw card costs plus a buck or two, and low pops will increase in price.
If my reasoning is correct, then it would seem that to make money in newer cards, you may need to stick to PSA 9's and low pop cards.
Buckwheat's comments bear fruit, but I would like to clarify my position to which he refered. When I said that there was not the vast supply of raw out there that others have alluded to, the qualification to that is quality raw. There's a ton of raw out there, but quality raw is another matter.
I have yet to hear of the alleged warehouses full of unopened material. A dealer here with a box of this and a box of that just doesn't cut it. Au contraire, it reinforces my point.
<< <i>Buckwheat's comments bear fruit, but I would like to clarify my position to which he refered. When I said that there was not the vast supply of raw out there that others have alluded to, the qualification to that is quality raw. There's a ton of raw out there, but quality raw is another matter.
I have yet to hear of the alleged warehouses full of unopened material. A dealer here with a box of this and a box of that just doesn't cut it. Au contraire, it reinforces my point. >>
nm/mt quality and above raw is what i was referring to also. Sorry I didn't make that more clear. I believe that there are more than enough of many commons to meet demand from set collectors. But there are others that truly seem to be hard to come by. In the 1961 set, the 137 Dressen card has only 3 graded 8, and none higher. Other commons have 50 or more graded 8. And since a Dressen 8 will easily bring several hundred dollars, while a high pop 8 brings $12-15, then I have to believe that the card flippers like Steve Pekovic who buy raw cards to grade and sell have skowered high and low to find some of these cards. They must all be in a warehouse in Alaska that no one has yet found.
Out of curiosity - in the ~20,000 graded PSA 8 or better '72 Topps, how many do you guys think are in dealers hands? By that I mean actively for sale? 5%? 10%? 20%? more?
Why do I get the feeling, that some cards are worth money, while others are not?
SOL - Thats a valid point! On all card issues everyone checks the Pop and assumes that they are in collector's sets or ready for the eBay push. There is a strong % of PSA graded cards both vintage and modern that are in dealers inventories and will stay there unless the price is met and if you can find the dealer. There are still a few thousand shops operating many w/ PSA cards to support their raw inventory as an option. And there is a magnitude of dealers that operate at shows and/or websites as well, and not just the larger PSA authorized dealers...jay
crazy - That's kind of what I was curious about in my 72 post before. There were 19,451 PSA 8, 9, and 10's the other day. I didn't count qualified cards. There was a total of 7,200 cards in all grades listed on the 72 registry the other day. They are not all 8, 9, and 10's, but let's assume they are. That means that there are about 12,200 PSA 8, 9, and 10's flying around out there someplace. Sure some are lost due to pop outs and such, but not 12,000 cards. So you have about twice the amount cards unaccounted for as you do the cards accounted for in the registry. If you add in the 6,252 PSA 7's the number of cards accounted for drops to about 28%. I don't see many dealers carrying these cards in inventory. They must be in the hands of collectors someplace. Collectors not on the registry.
First of all - I can account for about 200 of those PSA 8's and probably 100 of the PSA 7's. And if Zardoz hasn't sold them off yet - I know where another 277 PSA 8's are...
My guess is that most of the leftovers are held by team collectors, HOF collectors, 72 collectors who haven't registered yet and other collectors who have 10, 12, 15 cards apiece in private collections. Yes, there are some dealers who are keeping inventory, but even then (Natexinvestments, Champs and Bums, 707, Kurtz Kardz, etc) most dealers won't let non-moving commons just sit around gathering dust. Most will move the commons and keept the HOF'ers just to keep the cash flowing if they don't see the market coming back in the short term.
As to what percentages they are - no fargin idea...
Frank Bakka Sets - 1970, 1971 and 1972 Always looking for 1972 O-PEE-CHEE Baseball in PSA 9 or 10!
Comments
Gemint has the ability to pay $5 or $6 for his 72's in PSA 8. He won't get all the ones back that he needs in 8's, but he will get a nice chunk. Since he knows this is what it will cost him, he's not going to be an eager buyer of 72's at any price until he sees what he needs after sending his own stuff in.
I'm not saying that low grading fees are the only reason explaining the "drop" in price of the most common cards in a set. Buyers take everything into consideration when they decide to place a bid, and how much that bid will be. Their cost to "do it themselves" comes into consideration. Eventually they get down to needing the tougher cards which they haven't been able to do themselves, and those are the kinds of cards you consistently see selling for above average prices.
I recently deleted my 1965 set from the registry and will be selling them (all 8's) on ebay over the course of the next two weeks..starting tonight actually. I have turned my attention towards smaller sets....1954 Red Hearts, 1963 Fleer and 1964 Giants in PSA 8 or better.
John
BTW, welcome to the '64 Topps Giants Club
I figured that was the way you were going. I just picked up a really sweet Giants set, and will be grading it out soon. Send me an email with your price requirements on the Red Hearts. I know of some sources.
Brian
psa1965topps@yahoo.com
CU turns its lonely eyes to you
What's the you say, Mrs Robinson
Vargha bucks have left and gone away?
hey hey hey
hey hey hey
Yes.
I had a number of reasons to bail out of the 65's. I was currently at 11% (at one time I was over 20%..I started in Feb.) so I still had a ton of stars and semi-stars still to get...so it was not to late to get out (ie. selling say 400+ cards on ebay). Do not get me wrong....1965 Topps is a great set and I may revisit it sometime in the future.
Also...small/regional sets gives a collector like myself an added feeling of accomplishment where I can actually complete the set in a reasonable amount of time and not spend a fortune to do it (ie. put the money towards stars/semistars rather than 500+ commons).
Since there is not a ton of Red Hearts or 63 Fleer's available on eBay at any one time...I picked the 64 Giants so that I can keep adding to the registry on a regular basis.
Thanks for the welcome!
John
Now when demand is low, and the price of common graded cards is only at the price of a raw card, plus a $6 grading fee, then the supply will stop, because who is going to spend the time and money in shipping and preparation to send cards in to PSA for no profit, when not all of the cards will be 8's. So for common cards that are easy to find in nm/mt, the price equilibrium will be around the price of grading, plus the price of the raw card, plus about a dollar for the hassle of grading. If peoiple still send in cards hoping to get a 9, then the price equilibrium could fall below the cost of grading due to the supply of "9's that turned out to be 8's"
Now when the underlying raw cards are limited, as in the 50's cards, then the price will be set by the scarcity of the card, because the option of sending in cheap raw cards doesn't exist. For these cards, the price of grading is not nearly so important. PSA is smart enough to realize this, which is why you don't see grading specials for 50's cards. If they ever do one, it will be primarily for public relations reasons, and not because it will make more money.
So what i am saying is that for 70's commons, the price equilibrium should be at just above the cost of grading, unless suddenly the number of collectors increases tremendously so as to make commons to grade hard to come by. For 50's commons, the price is set by the scarcity of the card, and grading costs play little role in the value. What about 60's???? that all depends on whether there are tons of cards out there like Davallillo says, or not too many, Like zardoz argues. I think that the answer could be that there are plenty of some of the commons, and way too few of others, such that high pop cards will settle near grading plus raw card costs plus a buck or two, and low pops will increase in price.
If my reasoning is correct, then it would seem that to make money in newer cards, you may need to stick to PSA 9's and low pop cards.
Comments are welcome.
Buck
I have yet to hear of the alleged warehouses full of unopened material. A dealer here with a box of this and a box of that just doesn't cut it. Au contraire, it reinforces my point.
<< <i>Au contraire >>
Thanks for the clarification Frenchie.
CU turns its lonely eyes to you
What's the you say, Mrs Robinson
Vargha bucks have left and gone away?
hey hey hey
hey hey hey
<< <i>Buckwheat's comments bear fruit, but I would like to clarify my position to which he refered. When I said that there was not the vast supply of raw out there that others have alluded to, the qualification to that is quality raw. There's a ton of raw out there, but quality raw is another matter.
I have yet to hear of the alleged warehouses full of unopened material. A dealer here with a box of this and a box of that just doesn't cut it. Au contraire, it reinforces my point. >>
nm/mt quality and above raw is what i was referring to also. Sorry I didn't make that more clear. I believe that there are more than enough of many commons to meet demand from set collectors. But there are others that truly seem to be hard to come by. In the 1961 set, the 137 Dressen card has only 3 graded 8, and none higher. Other commons have 50 or more graded 8. And since a Dressen 8 will easily bring several hundred dollars, while a high pop 8 brings $12-15, then I have to believe that the card flippers like Steve Pekovic who buy raw cards to grade and sell have skowered high and low to find some of these cards. They must all be in a warehouse in Alaska that no one has yet found.
Steve
Website: http://www.qualitycards.com
My guess is that most of the leftovers are held by team collectors, HOF collectors, 72 collectors who haven't registered yet and other collectors who have 10, 12, 15 cards apiece in private collections. Yes, there are some dealers who are keeping inventory, but even then (Natexinvestments, Champs and Bums, 707, Kurtz Kardz, etc) most dealers won't let non-moving commons just sit around gathering dust. Most will move the commons and keept the HOF'ers just to keep the cash flowing if they don't see the market coming back in the short term.
As to what percentages they are - no fargin idea...
Sets - 1970, 1971 and 1972
Always looking for 1972 O-PEE-CHEE Baseball in PSA 9 or 10!
lynnfrank@earthlink.net
outerbankyank on eBay!