Food for thought...

FC57Coins

There's something that's been bugging me that I can't put my finger on but here it goes:

In the past five years, just prior to the SQ program starting and then in the first three years of the program, the mintage of quarters alone has been the following:

1997 - 1.195 Billion
1998 - 1.717 Billion

1999 - 3.794 Billion
2000 - 6.470 Billion
2001 - 4.806 Billion

So, nevermind that we are talking BILLIONS of coins in these past 5 years, and yes I know there are 5 different varieties of quarters in each year - plus you have to throw in a million or so extra for the proof and silver proof issues.

What makes me wonder is this - is the government pumping in extra cash into the national money supply banking that people will keep these things ad infinitum and thereby boost up the economy? - Eventually people are going to start realizing that there is a carload of change in their drawer and they'll want to spend it. What is this going to do to our money supply and therefore to our economy?

I'm not an economist by any stretch, but since we're talking about investments, what will happen if, etc. I thought it would be interesting to discuss this topic - have at it!

Frank

Bruce

It is my understanding that they do not print "more money" as that would spur inflation. I don't really understand this I will admit. I often thought that if the national debt is $10 billion, heck, print that much money and pay it off, DUH! Right? I guess it just doesn't work that way in real life.

That said I believe that they have taken in and destroyed said sum of money to be replaced with all these statehood quarters. And yes, lets not forget the seignorige (spelling) they are banking on by people keeping all of these coins. Just like I read about all of the Elvis stamps kept and not used for mailing.

stujoe

I did up a spreadsheet in 2000 (I wish I would have kept it) and according to my calculations at the time (projecting future State Quarter production based on 1999 and 2000 production figures) there will be more quarters produced from 1999-2008 (the run of the State Quarter program) than were produced from 1796-1998.

Just a point to ponder...

FC57Coins

That's my thought exactly Stujoe - ok - so does that mean that all the current washington quarters will start dissapearing from our change pockets sometime in the next 10 years? - Or do they stay around or what? It's worth some thought I think.

Frank

stujoe

I found my spreadsheet and updated it based upon 1999-2001 Mintages and put the results up on a web page:

Quarter Mintages

I think it is something to think about. We should soon be knee deep in quarters.

Russ

And yet, with those huge mintage numbers, we see prices like this.

Or this.

And this.

Tulips, anyone?

Russ, NCNE

cladking

The national debt that the government admits too is in the
trillions of dollars. There's more debt in the tens of trillions
of dollars. A couple billion dollars worth of states quarters
are inconsequential to the federal economy. It's not like
these will be used for any purposes of any importance any-
way. They are used to make change or to pay tolls or wash
clothes. The old coins are not going to disappear anytime
soon either. There are some 30 billion of the old eagle reverse
clad quarters in circulation and most of them are a fright. They
are not going to disappear enmass from circulation. Though, no
doubt, some of the toughest ones will.

stujoe

I know people who are pulling certain Eagle Backs out of circulation but I don't think it is all that wide spread.

oldcameoproofsguy

Hey Russ,

Nice links!

Things could be much worse.

It could have been me that spent thousands of dollars on a coin that:
1. Has a BILLION MINTAGE (1,000,000,000)
2. Is being hoarded by perhaps 1,000,000 out of the 300,000,000 people who live in this country.
3. Only has a pop 1 because the other hundreds or thousands of like examples haven't made to the grading company yet.
4. Is only purchased by people who haven't done even a little bit of research before they toss their money around.

A SHORT COMPARISON
I paid about the same $$$ for my 1905 PCGS PR66CAM $.25 pop 1(0)
Approx. Mintage 1905 Proof: 700
Approx. Mintage SHQ: 1,000,000,000

I paid the same amount of money for a coin that is SEVEN ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE rarer than the SHQ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sorry, but there is no one on the boards that is going to convince me that I got the worse deal.

It's your fault Russ, you got me started.

My Barbers

mbbiker

"Though, no doubt, some of the toughest ones will."


What clad quarters are "tough" to get????????

oldcameoproofsguy

<< <i>What clad quarters are "tough" to get???????? >>



Any of the high grade SMS Quarters in DCAM, especially the 1965. Out of all the clad quarters these will be some of the most difficult.
Also high grade DCAM proofs from the late '60's and early 70's.



My Barbers

cladking

No. The tough eagle reverse clad quarters in circulation are the 68-D, 69, 69-D,
70, 71, and 73-D. Also any pre 1987 in nice XF or better, and the later ones in AU.
There are also of course the varieties, some of which are tough in any grade.
The regular issue ones are not rare except in AU or better. They're not even scarce.
The toughest still has about 40 million in circulation, but it's mixed in with about 37
billion other quarters meaning you'll have to look through maybe 1000 to find one.

goyankeez

I read (a post?) or heard somewhere that for every state quarter that is hoarded, the government pockets the difference between the face value and what it cost to make the coin. I'm not certain of my facts, but hopefully somebody can correct me and elaborate on this.

JD

The govt doesn't retire coinage (unless it's damaged or can no longer be easily identified), they let coin collectors do that for them. Congress authorizes the minting of new money as part of the annual budget process. The biggest problem is that a lot of US currency leaves the US for foreign countries where it's either stored or put into circulation there. That (technically) reduces the money supply in the US which endangers the economy. How they determine how much new money to print is beyond me.

Russ, as for those prices you linked to it wouldn't surprise me if certain folks were purposely running up the bids on their own coins to set some benchmarks and create an artifical market for additional coins that will follow.

RLinn

Let me wade in with just a little different take on the subject. In 1976 we had a similar circulating quarter design that was adored and hoarded by the public as well as collectors. There are no rarities in the 1976 series. (Pop Tops are a possible exception, but I think condition rarities respond to different forces. I believe the State Quarters will be hoarded much like the 1776-1976 issue was. I also agree with Frank that folks will eventually (4-5 years) realize that their hoards have no premium value and chose to spend them on something of greater value to the owner such as a new TV. A quick scan of Redbook Washington quarter values might suggest that future value of any common date coin is affected more by the combining of two factors 1) strike quality (some dates and m/m suffer poor quality) and 2) non-hoarding. State quarters do not seem to suffer form either of these factors.

keets

Disclaimer-----I am not a modern defender!!

the place where everyone gets knotted up with moderns and mintages is that they confuse mintage rarity with grade rarity. all the moderns are collected by grade rarity and that's where the prices come from. the 1905 barber is really a bad comparison from that standpoint. what i do think it sheds some light on, though, is that the small mintage of the 1905 proof should give an indication of the collector base in 1905 vs. 2002 and it highlights the fact, for me at least, that prices are more a result of collector demand than actual rarity, whether it be grade rarity or mintage rarity. that single fact causes many collectors to go absolutely bonkers.

looking at the 1905 proof mentioned by oldcameo and the MS69 tennesee linked by russ i see two coins that i'd like to own. despite the huge mintage of one and the comparitively miniscule mintage of the other they probably have an equal chance of remaining pop 1's for different reasons. but in reality, besides a personal preference, what will drive the prices and the collectors crazy is the demand for the coins and not there mintages or grades. emotion seems to play a larger role in coin prices than i think many people realize.

al h.

cladking

JD; Yes, the government does retire worn and mutilated coin. There is very little
of this redeemed except by large municipal incineraters. Until 1999 there were
exceedingly few clad quarters being removed from circulation by collectors be-
cause there were almost no collectors. Large numbers of coins have and do dis-
appear from circulation but this is primarily caused by fire, flood, and various ot-
her losses. Coins hoarded by the public are almost always returned to circulation
after three years.

The bicentennial quarters have not really been hoarded in the traditional sense.
Many people save these as they find them in circulation, but then spend them af-
ter they've accumulated significant numbers. At any given time there will be about
25% of the mintage in circulation. It is at an all-time high right now of about 40%
of mintage. Save out a handful of these and compare them to a handful of 1977
quarters. Despite being older the '76 coins will be in far better condition because
most have spent much of their lives in sock drawers and the like. There was never
any serious collecting of the '76 coins. Gems are extremely elusive in circulation,
possibly nonexistent, yet the gems that do exist in mint sets appear at nearly the
same frequency as they did in 1977! (.5% in the '75, and 2% in the '76).

The redbook is entirely inadequate for pricing of moderns.