The rate of flow of modern sets onto the market has been proportional to mintage.
cladking
Posts: 28,649 ✭✭✭✭✭
...And the rate at which these mint and proof sets come on the market defines
the apparent supply. Demand tends to be fairly even across all the dates since
most colectors tend to buy one of each date.
Most of the older sets were purchased by people in their 40's and 50's. Most of
the original owners of the old clad sets have already died, and many more are of
advanced age. These sets continue to flow onto the market at similar rates to
what they were in the 1980's and 90's for this reason. i.e. the hoarde owners are
dying at a disproportionate rate to the general population. But this population of
original owners is beginning to shrink just at a time that the demand for the sets
is beginning to rise. Very few people have collected these coins in a systemic or
organized way so the attrition on the sets that have already hit the narket is incred-
ibly high. Many of these sets were busted up to give to non-collectors in various
promotions or included as freebies in newspaper advertisements and the like. Many
were simply dumped into circulation because the wholesale price was under face value
for many years. Others were dumped into circulation after a key date or high grade
coin was removed from the set. Many were bought by children or "non-serious" col-
lectors since they were available at give away prices. Many more were given to young
children by grand parents. It is probable that vast percentages of the sets which have
hit the secondary market over the years no longer exist or are in a highly debased state.
So while we percieve the older sets to be just as common, or even more so, than the
newer sets, it is probable that a severe drop off of their availability has already started,
and will become acute over the next several years.
In the last several years the average age of original mint set buyers has been dropping
rapidly. Many of the people putting together sets of modrns are younger and are buying
their coins directly from the mint. They rarely are eager to sell any so these sets are
tightly held, and are likely to remain so for many years.
The days of raw high grade moderns are coming to a close much more quickly than most
realize.
the apparent supply. Demand tends to be fairly even across all the dates since
most colectors tend to buy one of each date.
Most of the older sets were purchased by people in their 40's and 50's. Most of
the original owners of the old clad sets have already died, and many more are of
advanced age. These sets continue to flow onto the market at similar rates to
what they were in the 1980's and 90's for this reason. i.e. the hoarde owners are
dying at a disproportionate rate to the general population. But this population of
original owners is beginning to shrink just at a time that the demand for the sets
is beginning to rise. Very few people have collected these coins in a systemic or
organized way so the attrition on the sets that have already hit the narket is incred-
ibly high. Many of these sets were busted up to give to non-collectors in various
promotions or included as freebies in newspaper advertisements and the like. Many
were simply dumped into circulation because the wholesale price was under face value
for many years. Others were dumped into circulation after a key date or high grade
coin was removed from the set. Many were bought by children or "non-serious" col-
lectors since they were available at give away prices. Many more were given to young
children by grand parents. It is probable that vast percentages of the sets which have
hit the secondary market over the years no longer exist or are in a highly debased state.
So while we percieve the older sets to be just as common, or even more so, than the
newer sets, it is probable that a severe drop off of their availability has already started,
and will become acute over the next several years.
In the last several years the average age of original mint set buyers has been dropping
rapidly. Many of the people putting together sets of modrns are younger and are buying
their coins directly from the mint. They rarely are eager to sell any so these sets are
tightly held, and are likely to remain so for many years.
The days of raw high grade moderns are coming to a close much more quickly than most
realize.
Tempus fugit.
0
Comments
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
The 1881-S Morgan is GEM will never be a scarce coin.
I also believe many of these "Modern" proofs are not scarce.
Availability does not always equate to scarcity.
Give more Dealers the motive to dig into the back of their safes (higher demand/price) and these coins will turn up (and for many, plentifully).
peacockcoins
'82 and '83 issues exist in the tens of thousands. The point is there will
be a fixed supply of uncs which will be lower than many expect and that this
fixed supply will be less available then would be expected. Demand is already
growing above the apparent supply.
I think of Moderns as I do oil.
We've had the threat for years now of a deminishing supply but somehow reserves keep turning up.
peacockcoins
Not so much because of the rate of new sets enterring the market( this is fairly constant)
(but declining), but because there is some holding of sets for speculation and a highly
variable off take of these picked over sets. This off-take is primarily to build denominational
sets and for sale to new collectors. What I've seen in the last couple months is a decline
in the numbers of the picked over sets and an increase in the fresh sets. Some of this is
quite possibly sampling error, since I've seen only about 20 groups of sets. If this is real
it's probably just being caused by an upsurge in demand for the denominational sets re-
sulting in increased dismantling of the mint and proof sets. I would be surprised if more than
10% of mintage of any set has ever been on the market at one time. This would imply that
the picked over sets available account for about 3% to 6% of the mintage!
Unlike oil, the total amount of mint sets is known from the start. We won't have improved
technology to dig for mint sets and proof sets. It is difficult to know how many have been
consumed but we do have a handle on the life expectancy of the original purchasers.
So what you're saying is that collecting modern sets will kill you?
death since many are lingering.
really started sending in the current years set for grading. Up to that point not many of the older sets had been picked
through. Now there is a bigger interest in high grade moderns and prices have jumped up a bit. Now as mint sets
come to market they will be looked at for nice coins. It will take 10-20 years, but most sets will turn over and as they are
they will get picked over.
I think one of the best projects in this hobby for people on a budget, is to cherry pick the mint sets.
Just as there has become a time when people are starting to collect clad there will be a time when
it is hard to find high grade clad. This is a golden age for cherry picking mint sets. They aren't to expensive
and they aren't to picked over.
companion thread
I have wondered about this a little too. I have come to the conclusion that mint sets do make up the large majority of BU clad coins available (at least for certain mini-eras). Yes, there were BU rolls saved but they seem to be a lesser source than Mint Sets. Take for example, the two years no Mint Sets were made (1982-1983) and look at the roll prices compared to adjacent years where Mint Sets were made. 1983 quarter rolls wholesale for $375 (D) to $675 (P). Those dated one year later wholesale for $16 to $26. The extra 1.8 million BU quarters available in 1984 Mint Sets sure do a lot to the price of BU quarter rolls! This tells me people weren't putting away lots of rolls during these years if lack of Mint Sets can have this impact on roll prices. With most of Mint Set mintages between one and two million, how big can the pool of BU coins of any given date be? 2.5 million? 3 million? 4 million? Probably not much more than that.
Obviously, as one moves back into the sixties when collecting by the roll (and even by the bag) was extremely popular, survival rates in roll quantities will be higher. Similarly, the more recent years will have a greater number of BU rolls. Many people put rolls away and then cash them in after a few years of no appreciation. So, the more recent ones will have experienced less of this effect plus there will be more sitting in vaults, safe's, etc. But for the late 70s and all of the 80s, my guess is that BU roll survival rate is a lot like 1982 and 1983, very little. Consider all the Mint Sets that have been searched, cut up or otherwise impaired and the pickens are slim. Sure, "making" a new gem modern will likely always be easier than doing the same with a fresh classic (in general--obviously, there are date and series exceptions). Yet, ask those who are trying to "make" the new high grade moderns and they will tell you finding these dates in quantity and unsearched is extremely difficult.
Many of these years have Mint Set productions of a little over million. Coin shops like Littleton and Paul Sims have no doubt cut up tens of thousands and likely hundreds of thousands of these sets to sell as BU singles. When the supply starts to dwindle.....
WH
I guess I must be the jerk in this one. It was so morbid to me I couldn't get through it. It's hard for me to envision your scenario; it just doesn't seem like clads have been around that long, but I guess if your statement regarding the majority age of the original owners is accurate, I suppose your perception of the availability could also be accurate.
I don't know if I would agree with this though:
<< <i>Very few people have collected these coins in a systemic or organized way >>
. I've seen my local dealer purchase many almost complete runs of clad mint and proof sets. It appeared to me that many of those collectors, had a subscription for annual coinage, before the mint established one.
I think the most significant disruption in these sets availability is the result of today's collectors cracking, slabbing and profitting - particularly with the huge increase in the collecting base combined with the marketing of what is being called "pop top" coins and significance placed on the Registry sets.
it in order to have a mint product. They were not so much interested in owning
or collecting the coins as they were in having the set. Some, no doubt, did want
to own a specific coin or coins but there is ample evidence that they were not
buying the coins for a collection. If people were assembling sets of these coins
then it would follow that they would prefer a choice or gem example. There should
be a dramatic fall off in average quality of the coins over the years. There has been
no such decline other than for gem Ikes and only in the last several years. Also, if
people were collecting these coins in an organized way They would probably destroy
at least one set to put in a folder or album. There were no folders available until
1984. Albums were difficult to find until the last several years. (excluding Ikes and
halfs). There were no mint sets in '82-'83. If people were even collecting the mint
sets in an organized way, there would have been tremendous demand for the souv-
enir sets of these years. These mint sets were assembled by each mint for sale at
the gift shop. (The '83 had limited availability by mail). As few as 10,000 of these
were produced but as recently as 1999 they were available for the sum total of the
value of the coins in them. So they were not only not collecting the coins in an organ-
ized way, they were also not collecting the mint sets in an organized way. It is aston-
ishing that sales were so high.