Your thoughts on future value of graded sets...
Basilone
Posts: 2,492 ✭✭
Lately I have been thinking about the future value of a straight 8 PSA graded set from say 1960-1975. The supply of these cards seem to outweigh the demand in many cases. Thousands of fresh 8's are graded each month...and I really do not see the number of registered sets increasing dramatically for these years. Yes I know there are collectors that are not registered but the population of PSA set collectors is pretty small compared to the hobby in general. Ive started collecting a 1965 PSA 8 set in Feb. of this year and after selling off a approx 120 cards to fellow collectors who are nearing completion...I find myself holding back purchasing like I once did. For example, with 1965 Topps...I cannot think of one card in PSA 8 (and many 9's) that are selling for more now on eBay than they did just months ago. It seems the cards I purchased back in Feb, Mar, and April can now be had at a portion of what I bought them for previously. Every card purchased on ebay, privately, etc. probably results in one less bidder the next time around. It seems that the longer I hold off buying commons the lower the prices.
I love collecting and have pretty much become addicted but logically does it not make sense to wait say a year or two to purchase commons? The populations are only going to rise and every card bought most likely will result in one less bidder the next time the card becomes available.
Am I crazy?...but it seems to me I would be better off to maybe go with the 50's and wait a couple of years for the 60's and 70's...when there will be more 9's and many of the hardcore collectors will already have theirs.
Seems like there is a bit more stability in the 50's issues right now.
I would be interested to hear your thoughts.
Thanks,
John
I love collecting and have pretty much become addicted but logically does it not make sense to wait say a year or two to purchase commons? The populations are only going to rise and every card bought most likely will result in one less bidder the next time the card becomes available.
Am I crazy?...but it seems to me I would be better off to maybe go with the 50's and wait a couple of years for the 60's and 70's...when there will be more 9's and many of the hardcore collectors will already have theirs.
Seems like there is a bit more stability in the 50's issues right now.
I would be interested to hear your thoughts.
Thanks,
John
0
Comments
Your thoughts seem to be on the mark. I find it surprising (And sometimes silly) that some of the PSA 8 and PSA 9 prices commanded by late 1960s and early 1970s sets have met, if not exceeded, prices for similar cards from 1955 - 1963. I find it a hard argument to make that a 1968 Topps PSA 9 card has a much higher "value" than a similar 1959 Topps PSA 9 card (though market prices seem to have indicated as such time and again).
Though low population cards will always demand a significant premium, there is a huge difference in the % of cards grading 9 or higher from the late 1960s as compared to nearly every 1950s set. Every analysis of newly graded 9's for years in the 1950's compared to the 1960's is staggering to say the least.
I think that the vintage market will continue to be strong, and that the late 1960s market has much more volatility ahead of it. Some sets will continue to thrive (1971 Topps and 1970 Kelloggs in PSA 9 come to mind). However, it seems like the number of PSA 8's out there for some of the other sets is daunting. 1968 Topps seems to be the greatest example of a set that has a *huge* number of PSA 9's and 10's nearly always circulating through the market -- even with Revere and some other high-profile collectors that have snatched up hoardes of the cards...
MS
<< <i>Some sets will continue to thrive (1971 Topps and 1970 Kelloggs in PSA 9 come to mind). >>
I always said you are a smart and intuitive guy MS
BTW, the '65 Topps set is my favorite standard issue set of that decade.
Marc,
Yes I forgot to mention 1971 topps as being the exception...in PSA 8 or 9. I love to collect cards..but I also want to collect something that I can at least break even on if I ever decide to sell out completely. In the 1965 group, I know for a fact that many of the collectors near completion...paid much more for their commons months ago when they were "low pops". I myself bought a POP 3 a couple of months ago for $33.00...now the same card is selling $14-16 with its population more than doubled.
I like 65's but its seems like a downward spiral financially in 8's and many 9's. On the other hand, sets from the 50's seem to keep or even increase their value on a reguolar basis.
I cannot help to think that these issues are one of the reasons why many people who have recently finished their completed sets are selling them off before the pops on these cards explode even more. I dont blame them either.
Bauerfan's 1971 Topps Reggie Jackson PSA 9 and the tremendous return he is getting on it, is reason enough for every dealer/collector out there to submit cards.
John
MY SECOND THEORY IS THAT MANY OF THE COLLECTORS OUT THERE WHETHER IT IS 1965 OR 1973 ARE NOT BUYING AGGRESSIVELY. I THINK THE VALUE OF COMMONS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB, BUT THE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF FUNDS KEEP MOST OF US FROM DOING SO.
I DON'T THINK YOU HAVE THE SAME PROBLEM THAT YOU ARE EXPERIENCING IF YOU WERE TO COLLECT THE 1950'S, REGIONALS, AND TEST ISSUES. THAT IS THE MAIN REASON WHY I CHANGED MY COLLECTING GOALS.
1954
I think that the timeline that you're measuring against is really too short to determine how the different sets will do in the long run. Since the registry is still less than two years old, we've seen the initial rush from both the collectors side as well as the dealer side - initiating some ridiculous prices at the outset and then the inevitable drop back down to earth as dealers continue to submit cards at the same pace.
We also have the fact that PSA has changed their policy so that even the common man can send in without regard to going through a dealer or even buying an annual membership.
I think that what we're seeing is more of a "cycle". HCS has the right idea about showing patience and staying within your budget.
My guess is that over the next months, prices will continue to drop because of the volume being sent in by the dealers and the collectors as well as the drop in the cost of grading as per the "specials". As more cards hit eBay and the profit margins get thinner as prices drop - people (especially dealers) will be sending in less and less. As more collectors start working on graded sets or existing collectors change focus to other sets, prices will rise again and dealers will recognize opportunities for profit again. I would suggest that if you build multiple sets - shift your focus to the current undervalued set. Because a year from now, it may be hot again.
Just my 2 cents...
Sets - 1970, 1971 and 1972
Always looking for 1972 O-PEE-CHEE Baseball in PSA 9 or 10!
lynnfrank@earthlink.net
outerbankyank on eBay!
<< <i>I THINK THE VALUE OF COMMONS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB, BUT THE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF FUNDS KEEP MOST OF US FROM DOING SO. >>
Not sure how the value of commons will increase with an every increasing supply? Fact of the matter is that there are not too many collectors in this hobby that want to put together a 500+ card set. Plus the price drops have been been within the year....weve been in a financial funk for much longer than that. Plus the submission specials has not helped much with the saturation of the market
I agree with you on many of your points. I've been thinking the same thing. I have wondered
if many of the people selling their sets have not taken this in to consideration as well. Many of the
people who work on these sets from the 60s - 70s are have seen huge population increases
in the high end cards in the last few months. I got to believe that while everyone collects
for fun, no one wants to take a bath on their purchases. That's got to take the fun out of it.
So this may be the time to sell before populations for some of the low pop cards continues
to rise.
An argument to this might be the sad state of the economy. The long term downward trend
of the market may have affected spending on discretionary items such as baseball cards.
I've learned quite a bit over the last few months. If you are going to buy 1960's to 70's Topps
in nm/mt condition thinking you will turn a profit once you complete your set (or close to it), you
should consider that this could be risky. Heck, I've seen some red man cards from the 50's selling
for less than they were a year ago. The prices are everywhere for them too. If you collect for
fun as your number one reason, you're less likely to get upset when you do sell.
aconte
FB...as always...you make some great points!!
I'm wondering if others are feeling the same way (about waiting a couple of years to collect 60's/70's and...if others are thinking about directing their attention to the 50's and special regional type issues (like 1954).
John
Aconte-
I agree the economy is down..but Im speaking mostly about commons that several months ago (the economy was still bad then) ...sold for twice (sometimes more) as much as they do now.
John
exceptions. I can't see the logic of spending $10 for a 1966 Psa 8 common. I would think that
is a couple bucks at most. So if I were to bet I would think 1954 is wrong here. However,
he is on the mark on why I switched my collecting goals a couple years ago.
aconte
But then again, prices of cards always seems to go up over the long run, so what the heck do I know?
Or do you want to start a new set from the '50's that holds it value well, and the pops may not change too much? If this is your new scenerio, you may be paying higher then smr from the get-go.
Both of these situations have pros and cons, so there is no easy answer. Your collecting style and budget will dicatate where you should be headed...Good Luck with your decision...jay
Website: http://www.qualitycards.com
I have been watching these boards for the last few months, and finally decided to join the discussion. I think the future value of graded sets is a great topic, and picks up on some of the discussion on previous threads. I believe the value of graded commons/sets will continue to increase - at least for sets into the mid 1960s. I am not sure about after that because of supply/demand issues. I believe graded commons/sets from the 1970s may take a few more years to rise in value because of the supply issue. For example, a friend of a friend has 5 unopenend wax boxes from 1970 (stashed away) which would certainly yield some high grade cards. How many 1962, 1963, 1964 unopenend vending/wax boxes are lying around?
Here are some reasons why I think graded commons/sets are on the move:
DEMAND SIDE (PEOPLE)
1) More people "crossing over" from modern to vintage because of the volatility of the modern market. I did about one year ago.
2) Many people still have not heard about the set registry (or only recently have heard). We can expect more people to join the fray as time goes by. I only heard about it 6 months ago.
3) People are not simply building one set, I have noticed folks building multiple sets (e.g., one PSA 8, one PSA 7). Myself included.
SUPPLY SIDE (UNGRADED CARDS)
1) I agree with the prevailing opinion that the raw ungraded material that is out there is more like PSA 5/6/7 than PSA 7/8/9. Yes, there will be some great finds. But, it is not going to overwhelm the market. I am curious about folks experience at shows this year? I just went to the quarterly major show in Washington DC and found "4" 1963 Topps commons worthy of submission out of literally thousands I scoured through over 2 days. Again, most folks behind the table claim they are "near mint+"
2) The recent 60s special (April/May) surfaced a good deal of 1960s stuff. However, after all was said and done, the number of cards added to the market has kept up with demand (i.e., prices have not fallen off but risen in many cases).
3) As far as low population cards are concerned, I have not seen much change in the last six months for the 1963 set. Many of the low population cards that were 4/5 are now 7/8. In my opinion, this is in line with demand.... the 1963 Topps registry has gone from around 20 sets to 30 sets, and that does not include the 3-5 other folks that are building "off-line" and will jump in come late October. One could even argue that demand is beginning to exceed supply here.
SUPPLY SIDE (GRADED CARDS)
4) I see people buying low population graded commons as though they were stars. In other words, they may be buying and stashing - keeping the supply of low pops out of circulation. A set registrant's worst nightmare.
5) Graded whole sets may be built/purchased and stashed away like unopenend material was the rage many years ago. This is the flip side to the argument that collectors/dealers will buy graded sets and break up for resale - hence resupplying the market.
In conclusion, I agree with everyone so far that prices have come down a bit over the last year because of the economy. So, we can't let that be a barometer for future value. Interestingly...
Aug 2001 SMR - 1963 PSA 7 set = 9,065
Aug 2001 SMR - 1963 PSA 8 set = 21,624
Aug 2002 SMR - 1963 PSA 7 = 10,796
Aug 2002 SMR - 1963 PSA 8 = 25,193
That is about a 17% to 20% return. Does the market bare this out? Absolutely... six months ago PSA 8 1963 Topps commons could be had for $18 to $25. Recently, when one of the guys on the 1963 Topps registry broke up his set, PSA 8 commons were going consistently in the $23 - $31 range.
Don
Base Ball Card Investments
(1963s et al.)
Don,
First and Foremost....Welcome to the board!! I too have gone 100% vintage in the last year. Ive learned more in the last year from these "top-shelf" collectors than in the previous 15 years dealing with the weekend warrior modern card sharks at the mall/hotel shows!
Interesting view regarding the 63's...a tough issue for sure. In regards to the 65's....most common cards are selling 20-50% below SMR. I seriously doubt if SMR will ever make a "across the board" decrease in commons for any vintage set. They will most likely stick with the status quo realizing they have "under-booked" hundreds of commons in the past.
John
Overall I would rather pay a slight premium for a graded PSA 7 set than an ungraded set. At least you know what you're getting with the graded set.
It depends on what you mean by a "slight premium". For instance, you can buy a nice 1971 Topps baseball set for $2,000. A partially (333 cards) graded 1971 set in PSA 7 sold for $3200.
Regards,
Alan
I guess my point is that $2000 ungraded set that is supposed to be NearMint, usually turns out to be 5/6 material with a sprinkling of 7's. Although it seems I paid a premium for the lot, it was a very fair deal. If you add the grading fees for the 333 cards to that ungraded set (at the current $6 per card special that = $1998) that set now is up to $4000. With no guarantee that you are going to get at least 7's.
I at first thought I was too aggressive on the lot, but within 15 minutes of the auction closing received 5 emails requesting up to 100 cards from the lot.
I would rather buy the graded cards and know what I'm getting rather than take a chance.
the set registry is around 2600+ right now and it grows everyday. i wouldnt be surprised if it would eclipse the coin registry soon.
A lot depends on timing.. especially on ebay. the right time right picture good feedback , the right bidding war..too many factors sometimes...
Also collectors (especially on this board) are becoming more aware of supply and demand and they are becoming more picky w/ the prices they pay.
i honestly think that there are enough collectors outthere. just simply not enough money.
vintage cards will always have a floor...i would buy a vintage psa 8 on ebay if they price is too good regardless of wether i want it for my collection or not.
i have turned all my spending into vintage and more people will too.
it would be a wise idea to collect for fun first though.
Groucho Marx
it would be a wise idea to collect for fun first though."
That is the most sensible statement on the board in quite a while
Sorry though..I have a tough time bidding on cards that I KNOW will command less dollars in the next 6 to 12 months...that my friend is the Catch-22 that Im in.
Then again....if this was just for "fun"....people wouldnt be spending $200.00 on a $3.00 card wrapped in plastic...of course till the next one is listed a couple of weeks later and sells for $170.00. Repeat cycle.
John
if you are spending high amounts of money on cards and expecting these cards to be liquid and flexible just like your bank account...well thats a dangerous plan. since you might need that money right away for an emergency.
the prices paid for low pops are not realistic...but then again reality might chance depending on what one would consider "expendeable income"
actually a softening in prices might not be the worst thing when you look how many collectors might get into vintage since it is sort of affordable right now.
i have a hard time believing that a 1965 topps psa 8 set will lose value over a 10 year period.
Groucho Marx
Just wanted to clarify,
John
Great Post! It's kind of disheartening to see cards selling for $12 apiece when I easily paid $20 - $25 (or a few even a lot more) apiece for the same cards just 6 months ago. I agree that with several people nearing completion that there just isn't the demand for 65's right now but hopefully that will change soon. But I honestly believe that this is a great buying opportunity right now. I've been slowly buying 63's whenever I can get psa 8's at 50% to 70% of book and building the set very slowly. I learned a lesson in buying my 65 set too fast and paying too much. If I had to do it all over again I would have taken more time between 60% completion and 90% completion and paid less for the cards.
If you still like the 65 set then I would recommend sticking with it. The prices won't stay low forever because at current levels dealers won't be submitting them and supply will dry up. I think in the long run 65 will remain an popular set and make for a good investment. In fact, now would probably be the absolute worst time to drop the set. If you drop it do it because there is another set you just like better.
I can name 4 cards from the 65 set that won't sell cheap!!! I'm not beyond begging for help to get them. Good luck with your decision.
Wayne
It saddens me to read threads with so much emphasis on the monetary end of collecting. "Collectors" collect because of the love of the hobby. "Investors" collect because of the financial gain when it comes time to sell. Hey, some people like nice cars, nice clothes, or fancy vacations, and they spend the money accordingly. We just happen to like colored cardboard.
I am probably the guy with the tightest budget on this board, but I have no concern with what my sets/cards will sell for in the future. This is probably a good thing, since my sets are not very impressive. I collect for the joy it gives me, and the good people that I would otherwise never know. Maybe I'm crazy, but that's enough for me.
Bernie
Currently collecting.....your guess is as good as mine.
Here's a towel...BTW - your 1954 set just got better...I am sending your cards out tomorrow...please let me know what you think when they arrive.
Regards,
Alan
Always looking for 1957 Topps BB in PSA 9!
Also...if money has nothing to do with it...why not buy Raw from a trusted source?....why pay such a premium for someone else to tell you what grade your card is in? (besides the obivious autentication reason).
John
<< <i>
Also...if money has nothing to do with it...why not buy Raw from a trusted source?....why pay such a premium for someone else to tell you what grade your card is in? (besides the obivious autentication reason).
John >>
John,
You are absolutely right. And does it really matter if it is authentic or trimmed? Can you really tell with a cursury look? If everyone were collecting to read the backs of cards, and admire the pictures, we would just collect raw VG cards at a fraction of the price. And why would you have to have a low pop 8? Wouldn't a 6 or 7 which could be had for a song be just about as good?? We collect because we love the cards, but also because we like to have something that is difficult to obtain.
Any of you who collect just for fun, and you have some extra 61 PSa 9's sitting around, please contact me. I will gladly give you 100 nice ungraded cards for a single PSA 9, and you can admire them all day long.
Always looking for 53 Topps Baseball and "stuff"
THanks, BOTR
I think the bottom line on modern graded will be demand. As these sets start approaching 20+ years of age, collectors should start grading the commons and putting sets together. There are already a few doing so. I would only look at the landmark modern sets. Such as 81 Donruss/Fleer Baseball, 89 Score Football, 90 Leaf, any year SP Authentic Football, and MAYBE 84 Donruss Baseball. Good Luck
I think that "Bug" will do alright with the 84 Donruss set in the long run. Its widely considered one of the nicest sets of the decade. Plus, if you look back to Topps early years - the 52 set did much better than either the 51 Blue or Redbacks. I think that as history judges the sets of the 80's, that the aesthetic qualities of 84 Donruss will keep it at or near the top.
Sets - 1970, 1971 and 1972
Always looking for 1972 O-PEE-CHEE Baseball in PSA 9 or 10!
lynnfrank@earthlink.net
outerbankyank on eBay!
Good points. The 84 Donruss set is the one that brought me back to the hobby. As a collector it is worthy of grading. I think "bugontherugs" point was, from a financial perspective, is it worth dropping $3700 in grading fees on set that goes for $250-$350 raw. Especially where there is little demand for graded cards beyond the stars. If the demand for graded commons never materializes, the set will not increase in value.
Another observation is the spread between a raw sets value and it's graded cost. You can justify grading a sets commons if the raw set goes for $1500-$2500. Anything below that becomes a gamble or a labor of love.
In comparison, I have a really nice '75 set that probably falls somewhere at PSA 7, with PSA 6,7 ,and 8 cards. With this set, I feel that to upgrade several key cards to 8's+ some commons, then have them graded is prohibitive from a financial and enjoyment standpoint. Choosing between the two sets to spend $$ on, I feel that long term, the mint donruss set might be a better financial decision than a NRMT '75 set...........
BOTR
You may want to email Dom Furfaro - real good guy. You can check out his 84 Donruss set (which has his email address in it) on the registry and he's currently at around 75% with an average gradepoint of over 9. Based on some of his posts in other threads - I believe that he found it much tougher to get 9's than he figured originally. I also believe that his advice would be invaluable if you're looking to seriously look into grading that set.
Sets - 1970, 1971 and 1972
Always looking for 1972 O-PEE-CHEE Baseball in PSA 9 or 10!
lynnfrank@earthlink.net
outerbankyank on eBay!
BOTR
Always looking for 53 Topps Baseball and "stuff"
Couple things to think of though, in regard to this topic.
Do you all feel that the hobby has just scratched the surface regarding grading commons for sets? Will pop 1's turn into pop 10+, 20+ in the years to come as raw cards get graded? Of course, a significant jump in pop numbers will affect prices. I'm working on a 77 set, and there are low pop's on the 9's. Why? No one is getting them graded. So, when a pop 9 comes up on Ebay (which is often), I don't jump at it, knowing there will be OTHER 9's in the future.
I think the pool of raw, high end cards (commons included) far outweighs the pool of graded cards. The scale, though, will tip towards graded cards in the years to come as collectors seek to obtain graded versions of every card in their sets. As the scale tips towards graded, prices should level, or come down as the supply increases.
It's too early to tell on the modern cards, and certainly, collectors shouldn't be forking out huge $ for graded commons as there are tons (read=MILLIONS) of raw cards just waiting to get slabbed.
It's been asked, "why not buy Raw from a trusted source?....why pay such a premium for someone else to tell you what grade your card is in? (besides the obivious autentication reason)."
I thought, yeah, why not? But...how many dealers are viewing their raw cards under a 10x lens and grading on the scale of PSA, SGC, etc...? Just this weekend, I spent an hour at a dealer's table who was selling nice 71's. His prices were high book for everything. I thought, ok, let me take a good look at them. Upon closer inspection (just my 2 eyes), all of them had something wrong with them, yet this dealer wanted high book.
I truly feel the guidelines set forth by PSA for their grades are on a different plane than that of the typical dealer. I'm not complaining, knowing I'm getting value for a PSA card, it's just collectors need to be aware of this as they approach a dealer selling raw. Their NMT-MT may be a PSA NM.
Thanks for listening.
Mark
<< <i>Do you all feel that the hobby has just scratched the surface regarding grading commons for sets? Will pop 1's turn into pop 10+, 20+ in the years to come as raw cards get graded? >>
Yes. There is no question that more low pop cards turn up as more and more collectors have their cards graded. This applies to new cards and old cards as well as to commons and stars. The majority of trading cards are mass produced and it is unreasonable to expect that only one or two examples of a given card can remain in high grade.
<< <i><< Do you all feel that the hobby has just scratched the surface regarding grading commons for sets? Will pop 1's turn into pop 10+, 20+ in the years to come as raw cards get graded? >>
Yes. There is no question that more low pop cards turn up as more and more collectors have their cards graded. This applies to new cards and old cards as well as to commons and stars. The majority of trading cards are mass produced and it is unreasonable to expect that only one or two examples of a given card can remain in high grade. >>
Given the remarkable success of the Set Registry and considering that there may someday be enough high grade cards to satisfy demand, has anyone considered the implications for the registry? I mean, wouldn't that make it even more possible for the top sets for any given year (only considering more modern sets of course) to be identical? If that were to happen, how would sets be judged by collectors and for the registry awards? I tend to believe that at some point, the registry will have to add even more factors to the mix to determine the top sets. One factor that has come to mind that would continue submissions and also continue the bidding wars would be to benefit the collector who reaches completion first. This would motivate set collectors to spend the money to obtain a card rather than waiting on the next one to come along and it would motivate submitters to send in cards for grading that haven't been auctioned/sold recently.
<< <i>
<< <i><<Given the remarkable success of the Set Registry and considering that there may someday be enough high grade cards to satisfy demand, has anyone considered the implications for the registry? I mean, wouldn't that make it even more possible for the top sets for any given year (only considering more modern sets of course) to be identical? If that were to happen, how would sets be judged by collectors and for the registry awards?. >>
This is where I really wanted to go with my earlier post. The supply balances with the demand and prices level. For the buyer, great...for the seller, a strange situation.
Can you picture PSA cards with a lower cert # commanding a higher price since they were slabbed the longest? Yes, it's a far fetched notion...
Mark
Everyone-
Thanks for the kind words regarding my post....I appreciate reading what other collectors (with much more experience/knowledge) feel about the subject. Ive read a couple of posts where people have changed their collecting goals....do think there will be a trend for people to start collecting 50's & regional issues/sets in the next couple of years as some may think their money is safer there?
Also, just a thought...will the late 60's & 70's sets down the road be considered in the same vein as modern sets due to the large population numbers? In the future will vintage dealers/collectors be looking for PSA cards up to 1963 rather than 1975?
John
Nice post. I myself think that you should collect what you admire and whatever fits into your budget. I'm one of the crazy collectors doing the 81 topps bb under the mm collection and let me tell you it's no easy task. Take a look I dare ya. I'm also doing the 78's both sets are around 40 percent with another 30 to send in. I know what I have into them and I'm well under the guide lines.
With all that said I see the 64's and 5's being a great buy at the moment high pops or not if somebody was smart they should be hoarding. My point is this most folks are going to want it in 8's and better. Just because nobodys beating each other doesn't mean the prices are falling or your sets losing value. Most folks at the moment are tapped out without question due to submissions and biting off a little to much at the moment cash is king. Plenty of deals to be had as everyone is coming down to the deadline. Buy now and sell at tax return time
As I say this I sent off 600 63's 4's and 5's last week so anyone thats around the 80% mark you might have the ammo to make a run. The 63's will be sold off the bat and anything that makes 9's in the 4's and 5's and trust me a significant number will be turned.
Some thoughts, Matt
In answer to John's question, I think collectors will collect which sets they want whether it is pre-war, 50s, 60s, 70s, or 80s. From an investments perspective, I think you have to adjust WHAT you collect in terms of grades. I personally am following this model:
PreWar ..............PSA 5/6 or better
1948 - 1965 ......PSA 7/8 or better
1965 - 1975 ......PSA 8 or better
1975 - 2002 ......PSA 9 or better
I selected these grades based on the overall supply of cards. First, Topps (and others) probably produced more and more cards throughtout the 1970s and into the 1980s when it peaked in the late 1980s. Interestingly, in the 1990s, more companies popped up and they began cutting production and doing serial numbered sets to increase demand. Second, in terms of sources of "high end" raw cards for grading, I believe the supply of cards pre-1973 (or about that) is steadily drying up - if not already gone. Having monitored unopenend wax and vending eBay sales for some time, you really notice this material drop off after 1975. This means that anything prior to that is in collectors hands - and odds are - have not been handled with the kid gloves we all would like. Hence, getting 8s prior to 1975 is a solid investment.
I think if you collect these grades or better during these timeframes, you will probably see your investment rise over time as the SMR has proven at least for the last 2-3 years. I see this as a long time horizon, not necessarily a short term scenario where you get fluctuations due to 1) economy, 2) strike, 3) registry awards sucking money out of everyones pocket...
Thoughts??
Don
<< <i>I believe the supply of cards pre-1973 (or about that) is steadily drying up - if not already gone. >>
I think quality raw commons are still to be found. The rush to get cards graded started with the super stars, and just now, as the registries (SGC now included) are gaining popularity, collectors and dealers will begin to focus on those commons that need to get graded.
Sure, the pool of super star, high end raw cards has almost completely dried up.
Mark
Frankly I must agree with BBCI. There is a misconception that there are "massive" quantities of raw out there, and all the "old sets" that are brimming with mint cards are in the hands of the old time collectors who don't believe in grading. Ask them, they'll tell you that there cards are mint!!!!. What was a "mint card 10 or 15 years ago is not a mint card by today's standards...not by any stretch of the imagination.
Are we seeing any untouched vending boxes of the pre 75 material anywhere? Forget cases, I'm talking boxes......... Mastro or any of the major houses had any the past year? No!! Have you seen any dealers with any?
How many of you on this board have any untouched pre-75 vending boxes? I have none left. Believe me, they have all been broken and gone through.
I read how some of our board members spent three days at the National going through dealers raw stock and were able to find 80 cards! Not even 20% of their set!
It's going to be dribs and drabs from now on. Pick up one of these old time "mint" sets, and submit the 50 or 60 cards that actually have a shot at an 8.