is it possible ?

calleocho

.....to complete all the topps sets in psa 8 until lets say..1980.?

this collector would have total disregard for money. buying near complete psa sets, buying any card at any price. sending in thousands of card to be graded etc..

i dont mean test issues ..just regular sets.

and of course w/ a time limit of 2 years max from now...

i was looking at davadillo's sets and it looks like it could be done....i am curious to see what the board thinks?

HECK55

I just dug my stash out of my sock and it looks like I may come up a little short. I doubt that it would be possible for about 96% of us "WORKIN FOR A LIVIN" type dudes. The 52 set in PSA 8 would likely eliminate the majority if they started with it. Rick

qualitycards

this collector would have total disregard for money
ETHAN - Sure it can be done, if a collector has unlimited finances and could go on a buying spree, landing complete sets and having them graded and picking up other complete or near-complete graded sets, sure its do-able! There ae many avenues, auction houses like Mastro, LeLands & Superior (Carlos has a few graded sets ready to be plucked), eBay, and going to the major shows, like FanFest, The National and Fort Washington. A collector could get a ton or graded and raw cards, and "8"s arent that tough, now "9"s on the otherhand may be another story...jay

calleocho

i wanted to say psa 9 but quickly figured out that it would be impossible.

money issues stop me from bidding heavy on vintage psa 7's lol ...so i would never dream of owning a collection like that.

but it would be amazing to know someone out there has such collection.

so Jay you belive that the only thing that is stopping such a feat is money?

can all the cards be found in psa 8 in less than 2 years?

HCS

In theory, absolutely. Let's say Bill Gates or one of the many internet made billionaires (those who cashed out) decides to do this, then even finishing all Topps sets in PSA 9 would be possible. As some cards may not have yet been graded PSA 9, maybe we should allow a set average of PSA 9 and above as the target.

To do this, I would suggest The Man to hire a team of "finders" whose only purpose is to track down cards in PSA 9 grades or higher in addition to relying on shows, auctions, and major dealers. Heck, if a card is truly rare, offer 10 times, 50 times SMR to acquire it.

In any case, of course it is not likely that anyone would want to spend that type of money and energy for this task. Is it possible, yes but not at all probable.

zardoz51

Anything is possible if you throw enough money at it.

mikeschmidt

LET ME BE THE BOARD DISSENTER HERE!!!

<<and of course w/ a time limit of 2 years max from now...>>

Is it possible to build approximately 30 Topps sets in PSA 8 condition? Yes, if there is total disregard for money. However, You are talking about approximately 18,000 graded cards here (I'm just sort of guessing on that number), and I think it is impossible to get *each and every one* of those cards in PSA 8 condition in only two years time. Unfortunately, due to low population commons, even with unlimited funds, it does not seem possible.

Of course, it does depend on how ridiculous the definition of "unlimited funds" is. If someone offered $25,000 for a PSA 8 1960s common card he needed, I guess it is possible.

MS

zardoz51

MS

Your last comment completely undermined your argument!

Just position your thinking into that of the Government and how they spend. If they can pay 800.00 for a hammer, 650.00 for a toilet seat, 180.00 for a nut that is available at your local hardware store for under a buck, then this project could easily accomplished.

waitilltheytrytosell

From the 50's, 60's, and to the mid-70's, there aren't that many cards that don't exist in a PSA 8. One of practically every card is owned by somebody in the registry, so with unlimited funds and a willingness to pay whatever it takes, you just call everybody up and make them an offer they can't refuse. Anybody who says their cards aren't for sale just hasn't been offered enough money yet. Anyhow, it's more fun assembling sets than it is to own them. From the late 70's to 1980, there's a lot of stuff that doesn't exist simply because it just isn't as popular or practical to send the common stuff in yet. It all would be very easy to obtain. You just buy what you can from the registry and has a couple guys send in the rest of the commons. Depending upon turnaround time, you're done in a month or two. In the meantime, you can use the time to track down who has those last couple of 50's and 60's commons you couldn't find on the registry. A few months and you're done.

If however you are assembling sets with unlimited funds, but ARE NOT WILLING to pay significant premiums over SMR for the last 20% to 25% of the cards you need, two years is impossible.

NickM

I don't care what a collector's funds are, 1971 Topps will not be doable in a PSA 9 average in the next few years. Far too many of the cards have never been graded in PSA 9 - and it's not as if people haven't been trying to have Munson, et al. graded. I expect this set to also be the last one from the vintage Topps period to be completed in an unqualified PSA 8 or better without exceptions.

Nick

69topps8

I think it's possible for someone to collect a vintage set in PSA 9 average condition but not every vintage set in PSA 9 average. Most 50s and some 60s sets still have finest possible GPAs less than 9. Sure more cards will be graded but it's going to be tougher to up the GPA on the 50's sets. The GPA is already artificially high due to the more generous grades PSA gave out early on as it was establishing the guidelines. Many of the PSA 10's and several of the PSA 9's from those early 50s sets came from the David Hall collection. Therefore, I don't see a noticable amount of 10s hitting the population report and only occasional pop 1 9s being added. There are still some gem vintage sets out there in raw form but they will all be judged on PSA's current standards.

I do think that someone could build PSA 8 sets from every year but they'd have to have a huge bank account and alot of spare time on their hands. It takes an incredible amount of effort to build just one PSA 8 set. Just ask anyone who's build one, or close to building one and they'll tell you the monumental effort involved. I'd love to build every set in 8 or better but I seriously doubt I can get it done. I'll probably have to accept 7's when I get back to the 50s.

Davalillo

Calleocho,

Of course its possible and I intend to do it...until 1972 at least...the only question is timing...2 years will be tough but I would expect that at perhaps 3 years for most(all?)bowman and topps sets 1948-72 and the primary specialty sets, I would be down to just a few cards missing in 8 or better in all sets. I also expect to be at this level for all football sets through the mid 1960s ex National Chicle and 1948 and 1949 Leaf and all post war basbetball through the mid to late 1970s. Hockey and pre-war baseball are harder to call. Hockey is just a question of interest. Pre-war is funds and availability. At the very least, I would hope to be virtually complete 1939-41 Play Ball. However t-206, Sporting Life(M 116), 1933, 1934 and 1938 Goudey and 34-36 Diamond Stars--all of which I have a good start on are hard to call.

Davalillo

waitilltheytrytosell

Davalillio - You greatly underestimate the difficulty in finding the last 20% or so of a set. The last 20% consists of scarce and desirable cards. The last 10% or so - forget it. The competition for these cards is fierce, and the prices go very high relative to SMR. These cards aren't contained in the typical 50% to 75% starter sets that people bail out on. Many times collectors bail because they know what lies ahead. They can't afford to get involved in the 2x, 3x, 5x, 10x, 20x SMR bidding wars for each and every card that finally comes by that they need. Unless you can simply go out and buy somebody else's extreme efforts, like the Mastro 1952 set, it is much harder to assemble a set to completion than you understand.

Davalillo

Waittilltheytryto sell,

I believe that what you are saying is only true with a small number of vintage sets and is not true with the vast majority of vintage sets. While I may have to pay a multiple of smr for certain hard to find cards in say 1954 topps, it is for less than 5 cards not 10% or more. While there may be tough cards today in the 1960s, I doubt whether there will be many truly low pop cards in another 12-18 months given how many will be graded.
We will have a gentleman's bet over how many psa 8 or better complete sets I will have at yr-end 2003 and yr-end 2004....and I do not expect to have to nor will I pay up for many cards.
(I am not guessing the number because I have to estimate it myself).

Davalillo

mikeschmidt

If anyone can do it -- Davalillo will have one of the best chances -- his horde or graded and high-grade raw cards gives him a huge lead over the most advanced of collectors.

I do not believe that two years is truly a realizable goal -- but Davalillo has said that it would be an extremely aggressive goal. How much longer it will take is very hard to say?

And it also seems to me that Davallilo has an extensive network of dealers/collectors who will help him out very much. Let me be the first to say that the 1955 Bowman baseball set is one of the hardest 1950s sets to complete in PSA 8. In fact, there are still a significant number of cards with PSA 8 populations of five or less.

MS

waitilltheytrytosell

Davalillo - 1954 is an excellent example. According to my research, in September of 2001, you needed 15 cards in PSA 8 to complete your set. Right now, you still need the same 15 cards in PSA 8 plus one addition. All these cards with the exception of 2 or 3 have been for sale or auction numerous times since then, but most of them fall in that "have to pay up category". Then you have 1955's which are notorious for having many tough cards. You've added 7 of the easier low numbers since then, and presently still need 73 cards in PSA 8. Most all of these have been available numerous times too, with many priced fairly reasonable. You can continue to wait for prices to drop to your level, but this requires the supply to really start picking up, in order to exceed the current(and don't forget future) demand. At the rate your progressing on these two sets, it will be quite some time before they're a couple cards short.

gemint

Davalillo - While I commend you on your goal and efforts, I really don't think it will be so easy to build 100% PSA 8 vintage sets. I know you're one of the premier collectors in the hobby but I don't know how many sets you've finished in 8 or better. I haven't build pre 1968 sets yet but even the '69 and '71 sets have proven very challenging. I've worked diligently on the 1969 set since the mid 80s. I was buying PSA 8 quality raw cards from every source I could locate at a time when many people didn't pay much attention to print defects, centering and even corners. In all that time, there are a handful of cards that I've never found in strict NM-MT or better and were even tough to find in NM. Sure there are 1 or 2 of these cards that have graded 8 but most of us aren't willing to pay $500 for a Mike Shannon which books for around $2. There will be more 8s graded but even they will command a hefty price. I bet the 5th Mike Shannon 8 will still sell for $75 to $100. Until there are more 8's than set builders, you could be in for a long wait depending on how strong you're willing to go on these low pop rarities. As many '52s that have been graded, there are still some low population commons. I doubt the Pafko in PSA 8 will be going for anywhere near the rest of the commons any time soon.

In any event, I wish you the best of luck and look forward to seeing your progress.

SKINSFAN

AGREE 100% unless you are willing to go way over smr it can not be done.davalillo i admire your collection it is 2nd to none but i think you got most of your sets put together at the start of the graded card frenzy there are many more collectors involved now and always growing it seems for a example i offered you a 52 justice small some time ago only because i knew you need it 1 of the last few you need your best offer was smr. it is A POP COUNT OF 4 you could never in todays market touch that card for smr 2 others are in sets plus mine thats leaves only 1 i do not know where it is at unless you buy out a fellow collectors set or break down and go way over smr you will never finsh that set in eigthts,i am not bashing you by any means so please dont get me wrong just pointing out with the growing interest in graded cards it just keeps getting harder to find those last few cards unless you PAY THE BIG BUCKS FOR THEM anyway just my thoughts on the idea smr is not correct by any means anymore when it comes to low pops you can though the book out the window but im just a REDSKINS FAN so what do i know anyway looking for 55 all amerericans psa 9 as well as 66 topps football psa 9

crazysc

But I think the point can be made, that with reckless abandon and an unlimited budget, I'd bet you could get 95-98% complete on a 51-70 Topps set run. How many people out there have items that they would not put a price on?

However, for (almost) all of us, there are budgets. The same as I look at buying for inventory - I can't afford to buy every single deal that has profit potential in it, so I buy the ones with greatest ROI. Similarly if you're trying to accomplish multiple set runs - until you get down to needing those last few cards in each set, where you're NOT able to spend your budget every week/month/year, why "overpay" for stuff by paying a premium? Doesn't it make sense to buy all the hi pop cards first that aren't selling at a premium?

toppsgun

I don't think it is money or time. I think it will come down to desire, drive and motivation. This hypothetical is about a lifetime marathon, not a 2-3 year sprint. Many of us have hit the proverbial wall with at least one set. Even if one is complete, just ask how difficult it was.

Sure the cards are out there. Some are even being graded. And you & I are looking for them. But talk about a needle in a haystack! Do a search on the pop. report for the lowest 3 pop. commons in sets. It's like 2 or 3 for sets in the 50's and early 60's. Those are WACO cards (We Ain't Comin' Out).

I think you'll give up and go crazy if you don't.

Davalillo

There is a lot of merit in what you all say. I would make the following specific points:

Mike Schmidt--Your point about the extensive network of dealers and collectors is a good one. I have a lot of people showing me things on a regular basis. I could not do it without this. I do turn down a lot of purchase or trade opportunities. And I agree that completing the 55 Bowman in 8 or better will be one of the tougher undertakings.

Waittil--You are accurate on your comments on 54 and 55 Topps Baseball. I assume these purchase opportunities you refer to were on ebay which I do not use at all. Also remember that I am doing close to 100 sets and that there will be some that lie dormant for awhile. In the last 3 months, I have made huge strides on a lot of the 60s baseball sets and will this year have sent in close to 10,000 cards for grading.

Gemint--I would point out to you that the 52 Topps prices have plummetted for the low pop commons. They will also plummet for 51 Bowman with Branca now at 8.51 and probably resting as he has a comfortable lead and Vargha abandoning the quest. When they come down I will be there.

Skinsfan--I did have a significant collection at the start of the grading frenzy but I have bought a lot of graded cards over the past 5 years.

Solomon--Maybe my strategy is to buy the high pop cards first.

Toppsgun--I have had the "desire, drive and motivation" for 15 years and do not anticipate losing it. Money is a factor. I do work off a budget that I will not exceed which is why I will sell vintage cards for big premiums over smr.

Bottom line is that the jury is still out. Maybe I am too optimistic on the time frame but with good health and God willing I will get there.

Davalillo

Wayne8348

I think that Davilillo can get close and this is way. My case and point is David Vargha. He just completed an absolutely incredible set and upon completion decides to sell. The thrill of the chase is gone and you start looking at the incredible amount of dollars you have tied up in the set your are collecting and start thinking about what else you could do with it. There are going to be a lot of people getting to 95% or better completion over the next 2 years and some of those folks will decide to sell verses keeping their sets. We already see large sets on superior intact as opposed to being broken up. I believe with the success of these sales more people will look towards selling as a whole as opposed to breaking up the sets. Davalillo is not on ebay buying. He's waiting for the sets to come available through his dealer contacts, the auctions houses, and people from here approaching him. Another thing is that he's willing to pay a fair price for the sets as a whole which most collectors can't do and dealers will typically offer a deep discount.

I'm not saying he'll reach 100% but I would bet he will be over 95% in psa 8 or better in the vast majority of the 52-72 sets. There is no doubt that he won't get all of the low pop singles in the next 2 years but I believe that in the 1960's and 1970's sets that there won't be that many cards that are still considered low pop cards in the next 2 years. One card that was a pop 0 in the 1965 set 9 months ago is now a pop 8. Many cards were pop 1 or 2 9 months ago and are now over pop 10. The commons are flying into psa and will probably continue to do so. Good luck Davalillo - I'm cheering you on.

wayne

mikeschmidt

As another point to this story -- people should consider the point of John Branca. Though I haven't watched the population reports very closely, I have observed them enough to see that a) there has been a huge upsurge in the number of 1951 Bowman commons graded PSA 9 out there and b) these cards have ended up in John's sets.

Though it may not be typical -- and though it may not be easy to acquire -- this is one case where a fairly loose budget and a desire to build a set has, in only 3 years time, left John with a set that is nearly/over half complete in PSA 9 with the rest in PSA 8. A major undertaking for use! But if it is possible for a set 51 years old -- I think it is possible for nearly ever set of the era.

MS

gemint

There's one other factor to consider. The low pop cards will not only be chased by PSA set builders, but likely even high grade raw set builders. For some of the sets I'm building but don't plan on grading out, I do buy PSA graded examples of the tough cards so I don't have to bother scouring the earth to find them. This factor will always cause the demand for low pop cards to be somewhat higher than the number of graded set builders.

I agree that the low pop '52 commons have fallen in price as have many high $ cards during the economic downturn. But they still aren't approaching the high pop common prices. I agree with your approach though. If you're patient and have enough sources for high grade material, you'll be able to build most sets without having to pay many multiples of SMR for any one card.

waitilltheytrytosell

wayne - Vargha will not be pricing the good cards cheap. In most cases he paid a lot of money to get them. In fact, by the time we see his listing here on the boards, the most "absurdly" priced ones in relation to SMR will be already gone. I'm sure he will have some cards priced closer to SMR levels, but these are going to be ones that people are less likely to need. He may have every card Davalillo needs to complete his set, but the prices aren't going to be what Davalillo is accustomed to paying.

schmidt - Branca didn't assemble his set with concern over what is printed in the SMR. He paid whatever it took to get the cards. This isn't the same way that Davalillo is attempting to build his sets. Davalillo is doing it in a much more practical way. He will however, very quickly reach a point where all the easy SMR stuff has been picked up, and he will be stuck with needing all the tough cards. His theory is that all the cards that were once tough, will soon be readily available and cheap. This isn't going to happen any time soon.

Davalillo

Waittill,

I think you are wrong on this one and we will find out quickly:

1)Remember that Branca, Fogel,Merkle and Vintage Corvette(forgot his real name) already have the set in psa 8. They are only interested in the 9s. No doubt David will do well on these and that Branca will be the leading buyer.

2)The next 3 on the registry are myself, Ron Hobbs and Levi. Levi is a collector/dealer(707) and I do not believe a likely candidate to pay big prices. I do not know Ron Hobbs but he seems to have a lot of sets in progress and i think is also unlikely to pay up. After that its a big drop. The question is who is going to pay these prices? I will buy all cards I need from David around SMR but at the end I think David will be left with a lot of lower pop 51 Bowman commons that he is asking big premiums for which is exactly the opposite of what you predict.

3)At lower prices, although still at some premium to SMR I would buy more of David's cards. This will be replicated in many of the expensive vintage sets. The big money players(Branca, Merkle, Fogel, Lucious) are already there. I don't see anyone on a broadbased basis willing to pay big premiums to buy the low pop cards.

4)It is going to set up beautifully for me over the next three years if I am patient.

Davalillo

zardoz51

Aha!

But playing the devil's advocate:

What about all the graded card players that are not on the registry? They are out there, I know of one myself whose collection would blow many of the #1 players away.

An example: The 52T set that Mastro has. Poof! right out of thin air it appears. There are others, many others.....

However, I do see the logic in your thinking

calleocho

my inspiration for this question was taking a look at davadillo's sets...

having a complete run of bowman and topps sets in psa 8 would just be amazing.

im rooting for him!

waitilltheytrytosell

There are a lot more people collecting complete sets than appear on the registry. There are also a lot more team collectors who are just collecting one team like Yankees and Dodgers. There aren't enough cards available to go around. Many of the 54's and 55's you need are in the pop 20 range, yet seldom come on the market. When they do, the cards consistently go for large premiums. Our hobby, especially in the area of collecting PSA is not stagnant. Our area of the hobby is growing. There are new collectors of PSA coming in all the time. The new people decide what they want to collect - players, teams, complete sets. The ratio of what they choose to collect will be close to the ratio that people already collect. This means that there are going to be more people who are going to be needing the same tougher cards. The pops of most cards however tend to increase at about the same ratio. An easy card of pop 50 increases 20% to a pop of 60 over a certain period of time. If a pop 20 increases 20% to a pop of 24 during the same period, it isn't enough to satisfy the demand, so it will continue to sell at a premium. Many of the real tough cards will increase at an even lower percentage.

Davalillo

Waittill,

I understand your points but disagree. Simply put, I do not believe that for vintage sets that there are as many people as you believe that do not have their cards on the registry. Nor do I believe that there are a large number of team or player set collectors except for the superstars.
I do business with the biggest dealers in the business and many of them check if Charlie, Don or Marshall need the card and if they don't I am buying the card at a dramatically lower price--even for lower pop commons. I just bought some lower pop vintage cards for a mainstream set--while I bought them from a dealer I do a lot of business with he said--Charlie already has the card and noone else is trying to put the set together in 8. Once again, we will see with David's set. I like David and wish him well but we will see if collectors are willing to step up and pay multiples of smr for lower pop psa 8s.

Thanks to all for their good wishes in my quest.

Davalillo

Buckwheat

I have to say that this is a very interesting topic. The 50's sets are a different breed from the 60's and early 70's. there is much less raw stuff out there to grade, and the market is more mature. Set collecting for the 60's on is new, and it wasn't until the past 18 months that common cards have been graded in any quantity. I know the 61 set the best, and over the past 18 months, the prices of 8 commons have gone in two directions. initially, there weren't any high or low pop cards, and prices were in the 25-40 range for all cards. Now that many more cards are graded, 80% of the 8's go for $15 to $20, while the low pop ones go for $50 to $150, and up into the several hundreds for high series low pop, and very low pop cards. It would be easy to get 90 to 95% without busting your budget, but that last 5-10% is a killer. Whether it stays that way depends on whether demand keeps up with supply. As prices have come down, and the supply of nm/mt cards at shows has been depleted, the rate of grading has slowed considerably. My bet is that we are at a lull in prices right now, and they will head back up. One thing to keep in mind is that all of the people with nm'mt raw sets would probably find that their cards won't grade that well when sent in to PSA. And the low pop cards seem to be hit the hardest.

two questions--Davalillo--how do you ever get 10,000 cards a year ready to go to PSA. It takes me forever to just get 100 ready considering the card examination, packaging, labeling, and form filling out. Secondly, who is "Vintage Corvette" He has hit the 61 out of nowhere.

Buck

Davalillo

Buckwheat,

I completely agree with your points about a different market for 50s and 60s cards and that grading 60s common cards is a recent phenomenon. I differ though in concluding that virtually all cards from the 60s will be plentiful in psa 8 and that it will not be difficult to collect sets from this era in psa 8 or better.
I bring 2000-2500 cards to Ft. Washington every 3 months. Whenever I have time I just start going through another ungraded set and submit the cards that have a shot at 8 or better. I can see me submitting at this level next year but after next year I should be done through 1972 in baseball, 1966 in football and 1973-74 in basketball and although I have all mainstream sets in these 3 sports and hockey through 1991, I could stop at these years. It is time consuming though. It is also time consuming to enter cards for 100 active sets on the registry.

Davalillo

Vargha

I'll let everyone know how things go as it progresses with my set. I know who "Vintage Corvette" is. He needs two cards still in PSA 8. I sold one of them already at almost 16X SMR to another collector and probably could have gotten more. The other one he needs I am asking about 30X SMR for. Jim is right in that Charlie, John and Marshall put serious price pressure on low pop. cards, particularly the PSA 9's. He is also right that with me out of the picture, things should ease up some. However, I know of at least three significant 1951 Bowman collectors from eBay that I have sold duplicates to in the past. In fact, Vintage Corvette and I have bid against each other on eBay before. It will be interesting to see what happens with my set.

As far as newer stuff goes (60's and 70's), I can't really say. I believe Jim will be able to accomplish much of what he is setting out to do. When he reaches the point that only low pop. cards remain, he will have to decide how to proceed at that time.

1954

DAVILLIO,
I NOTICED THAT YOU ARE DOING A PSA 8 SET FROM THE 1964 TOPPS STAND UP SET. ONE OF THE TOUGHEST CARDS IS OUT ON EBAY RIGHT NOW WITHOUT A BID. IT ENDS TOMORROW. JESSE GONDER IS A SHORT PRINT AND WAS ONE OF THE LAST FIVE THAT I NEEDED TO FINISH UP. I PAID $300 FOR IT AND THE SKERBES HAS IT FOR $125.

JUST THOUGHT I WOULD HELP YOU.

1954

Fabfrank

This has been the best thread in awhile. I agree with many of Davalillos points. With more people grading commons from the 60's and 70's (and now I'm seeing 80's graded commons), the supply will more than satisfy the demand. Combine this factor with a weak economy, the hi-profile collectors looking to do their sets in PSA 9 rather than 8, and the frustrated set builders dumping their partial sets on the market. The only area I disagree with is the impact of team set and star card collectors. Although more of these cards tend to be graded, there always seems to be strong demand.
Davalillo I am cheering for you all the way. Good Luck!

qualitycards

I too! think that this is a worthwhile thread that gets to the core of us collectors, many thanks to CALLEOCHO for originating this topic. DAVALILLO your collection and your short term goal is simply amazing. Good luck with your search to complete your 100+ sets, I;ll do my best to help you when I can. Look foward to seeing you at the Fort Washington show in 3+ weeks, I have about 100 cards for you that will help fill in some spaces, hopefully more will follow in the upcoming days....jay

NickM

Fabfrank - the sets coming on the market don't seem to be from frustrated set builders; they are from people who wanted to use the money for other ventures. gaspipe's 1969 set may be the best example of this. Frustrated set builders would be bad news for the hobby, as they would likely not go on to building other graded sets.

I too think that the importance of player and team set collectors has been underrated in this discussion. "Hometown heroes" players (i.e., stars who weren't good enough for the HOF, such as Colavito, Elston Howard, Santo) seem to usually go for a substantial premium over SMR on eBay on spirited bidding by multiple bidders. The demand is significantly ahead of the supply, and the price guides haven't reflected this.

Nick