How can the price guide change on a pop 1 coin that has not changed hands?

sonofagunk

In the last couple of months, the price of the pop 1 1926-s MS65RD lincoln has gone from $70,000 to $75,000 to $77,500. It has sat in the same registry set the entire time. Who made us this price change?

Whitewashqtr

In general, I believe the demand of a series would cause prices to go up in the entire series even if a pop 1 coin has not changed hands.

IrishMike

It's only a pop 1 coin in PCGS, there is one across the street too.

sonofagunk

But then PCGS would be basing their prices on sales of NCG coins? What would be the "scale factor" involved?

Whitewashqtr

ok. here's a scenario for you. Let's say you own the coin. And after 20 years, its still a pop 1 coin. Should it still be at the same price listed 20 years ago? I think not!! So, I do not think the price going up is out of line, nor does it have to change hands to go up in value.

There are different market prices for the same denomination, year and mint mark. Does that mean you can never re-sell a coin at a higher value? I know my Washingotn collection is worth 1.5 to 2 times what I paid for it so far. Does that mean its still the same price for these PQ coins?

Think about the rationale and you will rethink your thread.

wayneherndon

The NGC version of this coin has been for sale (for about half this price) for quite some time (I think over a year). I've seen it offered by several dealers. It is currently here. There is an ICG version available for about a third of this price from the same dealer. You can rest assured both have been through the PCGS crossover process several times.

WH

itsnotjustme

The price could be based on the sale of other scarce coins from that series....

wondercoin

Pricing these super Lincolns is quite difficult, but I give CU credit in this case. There price is actually CLOSE to FMV in my opinion. Now, don't get me wrong, I am not suggesting the owner would sell it for that price (nor, am I saying people are standing in line to buy it at $77,500) BUT, that price is close to a price I might set for the coin if I was doing a price guide. Well done CU.

Now, about that 1953(s) nickel in grade 66FS which I last saw on the guide at $300 ....

Wondercoin

lincolnSence

Wayne - if you are correct (and I believe you are) in suggesting that competing coins of similiar grade (MS65) have been through the cross over process, then presumably they only grade MS64 in PCGS's opinion. How then could dealers justify the pricing, when current pricing for a PCGS MS 64 is nowhere near these prices? These would be a dealers interpretation of a "shot" coin? But more to my question - based on your comparison would you suggest that this coin is over priced or within an acceptable range? You were not very clear on this point and I suspect you were intentionally vague. I'm not trying to press you here, but interested in your professional opinion. I for one would suggest it COULD be worth as much as $50,000 to the right collector, but that's it IMO. And I would suggest there are probably no more than a handful of interested collectors. Besides, I find it odd that this collector would dump this coin as his goal of being the #1 guy would only suffer. I don't know much about the "pricing" process here, but I also understand this coin has a story of being "overpaid for" from the start. Could someone explain the wisdom of jacking up the price on an already overpriced item to me?

IrishMike

In the coin business, I believe that is called "the greater fool theory".

STEWARTBLAYNUMIS

The 1926 s in a PCGS ms 65 RED holder

I know of this coin. As a matter of fact I was the first person offered this coin.The price was $79,000 and the reverse fingerprint was free !

SOG - When a coin is a pop 1 or two or three,an owner can raise the bid hoping that others will not come out of the woodwork.I believe the person offering the bid price MUST buy the coin

Wondercoin - Mitch- You and I both know that this coin was offered for sale to a dealer for $80,000 about six months ago.The problem was that dealer was not given an exclusive and when I found out it was for sale the owner (knucklehead) said it was not for sale.Perhaps the coin will be again for sale?

I would pay over $100,000 for a 1926 s in ms65 red if it could ALWAYS grade ms 65rd.I have never seen a REAL 1926 s in ms 65 red.
stewart

wayneherndon

lincolnSence,

I've not personally seen any of the 26-s coins in a 65 RD holder and the images I've seen (such as the ones linked above) frankly aren't that great. So, let me answer the question generally rather than with these specific coins.

First of all, there is considerable debate about which services are stricter or looser which I wish to avoid for this paragraph. Above and beyond stricter/looser are differences in grading standards. That is not all of the services give the same weight to luster, strike, eye appeal and (lack of) marks For example, assume service A places a greater emphasis on strike while service B places a greater emphasis on luster. Thus, a service A might legitimately grade a coin as a 65 due to it having a nice strike while service B legitimately places it in a 64 holder because the luster just isn't quite there. A second coin in the same submission, to service B might be legitimately graded a coin as a 65 due to it having superior luster while service A legitimately places it in a 64 holder because the strike is a tad weak in one area. Thus, you can easily see how these two coins would be graded differently by two services with slightly different weightings of the grading factors even if they were equally strict/loose. In this case, each coin is equally a 65 (or equally a 64). Collectors who prefer a nice strike will prefer the service A coin and would be willing to pay a premium for it. Collectors who prefer nice luster will prefer the service B coin and would be willing to pay a premium for it. Now, let's say that there are more collectors who prefer luster than those who prefer strike. The luster lovers would bid up the lustrous service B coin to a higher level than the stike lovers would bid up the well struck service A coin. This would result in a higher market price for the service B coin.

Now, let's go ahead and assume that one of the services is stricter and one is looser and that a coin in service B's 65 holder will only grade 64 from service A. Grading is a continuum, not stair stepped. So, the 65 from B that would be a 64 from A could be a average 64 or high-end 64 or low end 64 or any other descriptor. If the standards of B are only slightly weaker than A then B's 65 is likely a high end service A 64. In that case, one would expect to see a price somewhere between the A service's 64 and 65. In cases where that range is wide (as in this case $4,000 and $77,500) one see how the service B 65 (a service A high-end 64) price could be well above the price for an average service A 64 (and still be well below the price for a service A 65.

Here's an interesting mental excercise. Set known pops aside for a minute and assume one day you have the pleasure of looking through the storevile estate (with apologies to orevile) and find a safe deposit box with 736 full red 1926-s Lincolns that have been protected from the environment by careful storage in mineral oil. The worst of the lot is an average PCGS 64 RD (worth $4000 per their price guide). The best of the lot is an average PCGS 65 RD (worth $77,500 per the price guide). The other 734 coins are between these two extremes at equal distance in quality from each other. Thus, to simplify, you have one worth $4,000, $4,100, $4,200, $4,300...$77,300, $77,400, and, finally, $77,500. Now assume you sent them all of to PCGS who would essentially be drawing the line somewhere in this continuum of coins with those above the line getting a 64 and those above getting a 65. I have no idea where they'd draw the line. But, if it were at the halfway point, the dividing price would be around $40k. Right at the line, you'd have a super high-end 64 and a marginal 65 that differed $100 in value. In any event, if you think of the grading scale as a continuum rather than individual grade steps, you should be able to see how a NGC 65 (that would be a 64 in a PCGS holder) would be priced well above the PCGS 64 price.

Of course the grading process is no where near as an exact science as presumed in the above examples. When you through in matters of opinion of the graders and how that changes from year to year and grader to grader (even at the same service) and you come closer to reality. Still, we all tend to afford the process more exactness than it really has and that is why pricing issues like this look weird to us. Because the service says 64 rather than 64.57692 our mind tends to think it is stair stepped rather than a continuum. We also value the number on the holder because it is a (hopefully independ) third party opinion of what we want to think about a coin or are being told about the coin. For example, I'm sure someone would be willing to pay more for that coin in an NGC 65 holder than they would in a PCGS 64 holder. In one case (NGC 65), I'm wanting a 65, the dealer is telling me it is a 65 and the third party expert is saying it 65. In the other case (PCGS 64), I'm wanting a 65, the dealer is hyping his 64 as super high end worth 8 or 9 times the price of a 64 because it is a lock 65 or shot 65 or whatever, and the third party expert is saying it is a 64. No matter how much we say buy the coin, our mind is weak and we have to take a little peak at the grade and it influences the process. Hence the crackout, crossover, regrade game continues.

Sorry, it is such a long winded post. I'm too tired to typing to go back and proof read so please excuse any typos.

WH

wondercoin

Stewart: Whether the coin becomes available for sale in the near future or not, I do think it is very interesting that CU has had (3) different prices for this coin this year? I am also curious just how CU is basing its decision to raise these Lincoln prices, especially when pricing for other series are so out of line - I mentioned the 1953(s) nickel in 66FS that I would gladly pay $15,000 sight-seen and last showed a price of $300 in the guide, etc., etc., etc.

WH: Fabulous post!! And, of course, your example carries through most 20th Century coin series. Just like the MS64RD $4000 26(s) Lincoln can become a $100,000 MS65RD Lincoln (Stewart's possible buy price for a solid MS65RD), that 25x jump is modest compared to other jumps in price in other series. For example, I sure wish I could buy MS68 silver Wash quarters for 25x the MS67 price in many cases. Hey, even a silver Roosie in PCGS-MS68 would be a steal at 30x-40x the MS67 price in many cases (I'm in sight-seen)!! And, (back to Lincolns) how about that 1935(p) Lincoln in MS68RD that is around a $100 coin in MS67RD and a $6500 coin in MS68RD (didn't it quickly sell around that figure out of a CW ad last week?) - a mere 65x jump.

Bottom line: The crackout game is alive and well and don't bet PCGS's submission revenues will drop sharply anytime soon


Wondercoin.



Wondercoin.

wayneherndon

Mitch,

Actually, that 1935 Lincoln sold two weeks before the CW issue came out.

WH

wondercoin

Wayne: Did you pick that one up? I guess 65x jump in price between grades was way too little in that case - it was mentioned to me by someone that it could have potentially sold 5x once the ad hit Wondercoin

wayneherndon

Mitch,

No, I missed it. That's how I know when it sold.

WH

supercoin

WH, can't remember if you participated in this discussion the last time it was posted... but using your example of the long-lost 26-S hoard, the price curve looks more like this (substituting 67/68 for your 64/65 because I'm too lazy to re-draw the pictures):



In other words, generally speaking, a 67.5 does not bring a price even close to halfway between 67 and 68 -- due to that human factor you mention, of that little number on the label.

So that means the 67.5 is undervalued, or the 68 is overvalued.

To determine which, consider if all coins were raw. I think we'd agree that the condition/price curve would be more linear, because there isn't anyone sticking a flag in the shifting sand saying "this is where MSxx begins".

And if it looked like this, then the 67.5 was clearly undervalued when trapped in it's 67 holder:



However, without that little label magnifying the difference, does anyone really think that 68 would command the premium it does?

I think in reality the raw coin curve would look more like this:



Which means the 67.5 is fairly valued. And the 68 overvalued. As a coin, not necessarily as a coin/plastic combination.

To which I conclude:

- Buying a top-pop coin in a "second-tier" holder for half the price of the PCGS top-pop coin does not make it a bargain, because:

- Top pop extreme premium coins in PCGS holders are generally overvalued. If cracked out, their value depends in large part on their ability to get back in a PCGS holder.

STEWARTBLAYNUMIS

Mitch- Isn't the CU pricing influenced by David Hall ? Does David Hall not sell Lincoln cents ? I know he holds the record for selling a 1909 s vdb in 67 red. Perhaps he wants to buy the 1926 s in 65 red

Wayne- A friend of mine bought an original roll of 1935 cents . A few more than twenty of them graded ms 67. I could have bought all of them for $5,000. At the ANA in New York he cracked out what he thought was the best five of them,submitted them at $100 a coin and what he and I thought was the best one came back in a 66red holder. There is a word to describe when one makes a ms 68. I can't use the word on this thread......and it is not a bad word......a hint ....it is a name...is what he suceeded in doing !!!

THERE WILL ALWAYS BE MORE MS68 RED COMMON DATE LINCOLN CENTS............GUARANTEED

NGC - Does not guarantee color
ICG - I Can't Grade
PCGS - makes mistakes,but many fewer than the other guys

wayneherndon

Stewart's post is an excellent reminder for all the red or red/brown copper collector. While grading standards can be debated, one thing is for certain: NGC does not guarantee color; PCGS does. Thus, anyone spending big bucks on copper should take that into effect when choosing a certification company.

WH

wayneherndon

Supercoin,

I don't recall whether I participated in the prior thread but I do recall reading it and I almost referred to your graphs in my post above. Thanks for adding them to the mix.

WH

wondercoin

"Mitch- Isn't the CU pricing influenced by David Hall ? Does David Hall not sell Lincoln cents ?"

Stewart: Of course they do, BUT, they also sell Jeffersons - look how many are presently available for sale. So, my curiosity also centers arounds changing a Lincoln price 3x on a pop 1 coin buried in a collection, while the Jefferson prices and other 20th century series remain where they remain. Maybe, you are right, and groudwork is being laid.

Also, your story about the 1935(p) Lincolns is invaluable. Students of game should take heed. I also recently submitted (3) super PQ Memorial Cents in PCGS-MS66RD, which I also cracked out and sent in economy service for grading looking for (3) MS67RD's. These (3) coins were the cream coins out of a 25-30 coin Memorial lot, which a well-respected small time ebay dealer sold to me - a freshly graded deal where the dealer felt PCGS was very hard on him. The lot was priced stronger than usual and I only agreed to pay the price sight-seen. When I got the few dozen freshly graded PCGS coins in, I totally agreed with this dealer's assessment of the Lincolns, closed my deal with him and excitedly (but very carefully) prepared the (3) Memorials for resubmission as raw coins. ALL 3 CAME BACK PCGS-MS64RD!!! Not one or two mind you, but all 3!! The (2) separate gradings of these Lincolns occurred within 20-30 days of each other!! Anyone out there want to buy (3) MS64RD shot MS67RD Lincolns at super PQ-MS66RD money?

Wondercoin.

RELLA

Wayne;

I'm not 100% sure about this but from what I've been told about that 1935 in PCGS MS68RD you (and others) missed it twice; once at the show it was made at and once again just last week when it resold at a tidy profit.

RELLA

sonofagunk

listed as $125K now

Russ

That makes sense since in his market update Hall says Lincolns are NUCLEAR.

Russ, NCNE

Bear

Remember, from Nuclear , a person can get killed from the radiation

and blast effects.

Robgetty

Good, informative thread. Thanks!

sinin1

price guides get their values from trading platforms not available to collectors



CCE, Eureka trading, ......



Someone has a bid for a coin with those specs for $70K then raises it to 75K and they or someone else raises it to $77.5 K


even though there is only 1 in existence, the people bidding are hoping to eventually bring it out so they can buy it -- many times these top pops have no offers because the owner has no interest in offering it for sale



what would really be interesting is if the owner puts out an offer for $120K with the top bid at $80K -> what would the price guides value the coin at then?? $80K?

haletj

Wow. Very interesting. Thanks for ttt'ing this thread. What I don't understand is how can CU put a price of $3750 for a 64rd 09-s vdb when they are readily available for $3000-$3200. On the other hand many other dates in 64rd can't be found for anywhere near the CU prices. (14-P,15-s,16-s,17-d,24-s,27-s just to name a few).

Now about that pcgs ms65rd 26-s. It has a fingerprint, and is not gem in some experts minds? Wow! As I said in another thread I'm losing faith completely in the grading industry. Look at the Oct 22nd Teletrade auctions, and the Lincolns. Many seem terribly overgraded to me (based on pictures and descriptions. No one answered me when i asked if others thought they were overgraded too). Then look at Clackamus's thread where he sent in lock 67's with hopes of a 68 (55-s) and got 66's, and Wondercoin who tried to get a 66 to upgrade 67 and got a 64. All this just seems way too wrong!! How can you guys all deal with pcgs (or other services') coins and send coins to pcgs (or other services) for grading when everything about it seems this bad?

Stewart: If you don't mind me asking, how nice is your 26-s? Have you ever seen a nicer one than yours? I'd love to see a picture some day! (It wasn't among the beautiful pictures of your 1919,14-d's and others that were on some website).