Come-on, take a shot at it!
lincolnSence
Posts: 407 ✭
I was recently discussing the purchase of a coin (the specifics really don't matter) that had these basic circumstances surrounding the transaction. The coin is considered a key date in its series. The current grade is for the second highest pop catagory. The finest pop grade has approximately 10 coins and commands 5 - 6 times the money. Sound like a familiar scenario? Now to my question. The owner pitches the coin as a "SHOT" piece. Obviously it is a nice coin - lets assume extremely nice but one that PCGS has not agreed to upgrade on several previous attempts. How would one go about pricing this coin? I would appreciate hearing from as many collectors and dealers as possible.
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Comments
In that case, the odds of you upgrading the coin are extremely low, so I would suggest pricing the piece at a premium to the current grade if the coin is PQ for the grade, but not so much as to start looking at multiples of the lower grade's price.
Personally, the most I paid for a "shot" piece was about 50% over the listed grade price for an Ike that was a 66, shot 67. It's still in my set as a 66, but it is nicer than any other 66 I have ever seen.
These are the coins I try to stretch as far as I reasonably can to buy. They do not come around every day
On the question of upgrading, the only issue to me is how I feel about the coin and its chances TODAY of upgrading. The fact the coin failed a couple times in the past is informative, but isn't determinative to me at all.
Wondercoin
Jim
Ray
What have you been smoking?..........Monstavet
If you ask Jim Halperin from Heritage about "shot coins",He'll tell you about percentages.If we submit the coin five times in a six month period,what are our chances of an upgrade?If we crack the coin out of the holder,will it come back in the same holder everytime.Is it better to crack the coin or submit it in the holder.
Ask yourself How big are my Ba--s ?What are my odds ?
I would like to share the story of the 1955/55 double die Lincoln in the first generation PCGS holder that was sold in a Heritage Auction in Long Beach about a year ago.
The coin was without question P.Q. It was without question a shot coin.It had great luster but what I thought a few too many spots.
An average 1955/55 in Pcgs ms 65 red would sell for $20-$25,000
I figured I would bid $35,000 plus the juice (15% buyers premium).The coin brought $59,000 including the juice.The upside was that there were buyers for the coin in a PCGS ms 66 red holder at more than $100,000.The coin did not work !As a result the coin will have to be sold for a loss.
What is a shot coin worth? i would say it will always bring more in an auction ? If you can buy a shot coin privately,you will probably get a better price. Buy what you like.....like what you buy
Stewart
buy what you like like what you buy (after you bought it!) but also like it enough to KEEP it! Someday someone will feel the same way you do about the coin and quite often the coin sells for incredible $$.
better to have the best of the best of the 66 graded coin than a "crippled" 67 coin.
I prefer the high end for the grade not the "just made it" to the next grade.
Let the vultures decend on your coin hoping for the upgrade but in your years of ownership you know it was the best for the assigned grade.......when you sell it all bets are off.
As Michael (one of the PCGS threads posters who is quite astute) has stated numerous times.......this coin market is getting more sophisticated and it resembling more and more a sight seen raw coin market in which the slabbed grade is almost becoming secondary to the real grade of the coin in question. That is why certain PQ slabbed coins goes for multiples of their assigned grades in auctions while crippled and low end coins end up selling at huge discounts.
I am usually willing to pay up to a 50% premium for a truly PQ coin for the grade is the next step is a 500% increase. That is 1/10 of the next step up. Now the 500% for the next step up is a large increase from one grade to the next as I try to hold it closer to no more than 300% to step up to the top grade.
Last but least keep in mind that 66 grade did not exist at one time and then it became a "minor" grade
but lately has developed a life of its very own. More and more complexity to this hobby. :-(
Seriously, I am not a dealer, so I did overlook one important reason to upgrade the coin, other than the Registry points, and that is profit. From my perspective as a collector, it is still the same coin. If I upgraded it to the next grade, and it was clearly a "crippled" 67 (I like that term!), I would probably end up selling it at significant discount anyway to another collector. Maybe I am too honest, but profit plays little motivation for me in my collecting. I have made some money on some coins, but as many people here know, I usually sell for very good prices. I might even be considered an expert at losing money on coins! Haha. Such is life!
I like that 10% of the next upgrade idea. I suppose you could choose any percentage, but it gives you some reference to work off of.
price than a PQ 66. So if I already own the coin I want it
in a 67 holder. Then I know if I sell it (even properly described)
it will fetch more.
Now if I'm buying, I wouldn't want a crippled 67. It's way too
much of a premium in price for the 67 over a 66. Say a 66 is $200
and the 67 is $1000. Even if the 67 is bad it's going to bring $750.
And a fantastic 66 will only bring $300. If I'm going to spend
$750 I might as well go all the way and pay the $1000 for the true 67.
Otherwise I will drop down and find a nice looking 66.
-KHayse