Andy Carey?....c'mon now

Mantlefan

Well, it's finally happened. 1957 Topps #290 Andy Carey is going for a higher price than the Mickey Mantle card of the same set! This one is not even well-centered top to bottom. When will the madness end?

Andy Carey PSA 8

brucemo

Rats, the one I just sent in came back a 7.

bruce

Mantlefan

Rats, the one I just sent in came back a 7.


So did mine Bruce, but I got $70 for it on EBAY. For 1200 bucks, I would expect Andy Carey to deliver the card to me personally!

LloydsBaseballCards

Wow, Wow and double Wow! Set collectors strike again!

Davalillo

Davalillo

In regards to this auction, I think what this demonstrates is simply two guys --in this case John Branca and Phil Minard--who want the card badly.
My strategy is to sell low pop cards into this, making the bet that more examples will surface and the price will come down.
I would rather use the funds to buy vintage psa 8 star cards which in many cases can be had for discounts and in some cases big discounts to SMR> Time will tell if this is the right strategy.
I would point out to those skeptical of this strategy, the collapse in value of the formerly low pop 52 Topps psa 8 Wehmeier and Crandall psa 8 cards after Charlie, Marshall and a couple of others acquired them for their sets. The frenzy lately seems to be in the early Bowman sets for low pop 8s and psa 9s as David Vargha will attest

Marc, what do you think of this strategy?

Davalillo

Vargha

Jim is right. However, the older the card, the less likely that PSA 8+ cards will later appear on the market. 1957 is new enough that this is a definite risk. By the time you get back to 1951, which I collect, there are still a decent number of PSA 8's coming on the market but certain key cards are still at very low pops. in 8. Additionally, outside of a recent increase by about a third in the PSA 9 population in 1951 Bowman due to grading of many (if not most) of the "Kansas City find" cards, PSA 9's are very rare in coming into the marketplace for the first time in a slab. By the time you get to 1955 Topps, the populations are quite large. In fact most Topps sets have pretty decent populations in PSA 8 or better, so this kind of frenzied bidding on a 1957 card may be premature as Jim suggests. And bidding against John Branca (bruinkid75) is not for the faint of heart. As Marc will tell you also, sets like the 1955 Bowman set that he collects are tough due to centering and chipping issues. IMO, that set is currently undervalued and will see appreciation in the next few years.

Mantlefan

My strategy is to sell low pop cards into this, making the bet that more examples will surface and the price will come down

Davalillo, as the self-appointed watcher of the 1957 Topps set, I disagree. In March of 2000, there were 13 PSA 8 Andy Careys. Now, there are only 17....only 4 new ones have shown up in two and a half years. I was aghast at paying $300 for mine last year. Someone emailed me that I was "nuts" and that I should wait for the prices to come down. Since then, only 2 have come up for sale on EBAY....they went for $917 and $1236. I really doubt that there are going to be any 1957 Topps "finds" and most of what's out there appears to have been graded already.

mikeschmidt

<<Marc, what do you think of this strategy?>>

Davalillo-

Funny you should ask me this question, as I am trying to acquire two tough 1955 Bowman PSA 8 cards from you presently! Hopefully my response will not come out as being biased in that regard.

I think that it is a very strong strategy overall. Frank points out that only four new Careys in PSA 8 have turned up in over two and a half years. But, at the end of the day, you need collectors piling into a set at a quicker pace than population increase. And I do not think that that will largely happen for a long period of time.

Heck -- just look at the bidding pattern on this card as a perfect example. If either Phil or John never bid on this card, the final bid would have been $461 and not $1,200+. Of course, perhaps other bidders would have entered into the picture, but here you have two people who effecitvely tripled the price of the card in a bidding war over a PSA 8. One thing is for sure -- Phil will not be playing this game the next time an example becomes available.

There are still a large number of collectors out there who have not taken advantage of grading all of their 1950s and 1960s commons. How many advanced collectors out there truly know that there are 1957 Topps commons out there that sell for $1,000+ in PSA 8? I imagine not many. Common PSA 8 cards from this set sell for significantly less than the Carey card -- and the population WILL increase over time. Perhaps not as much as other 1957 commons -- but there will still be more. How many people are putting together the 1957 set in PSA 8? 10? 20? 30? Also, remember with this card that there are some advanced Yankees collectors out there who probably skew the numbers a little bit for the set collectors.

And back to my 1955 Bowman example -- many people just do not get this set graded. Heck -- about half of the commons from the set don't even have sixteen graded examples -- nonetheless those numbers in PSA 8. Population numbers of many of the "tough" commons have increased a lot this year. Some of those low. pop commons sell for $100 - $150 dollars. Some of the umpires sell for more. But dealers are not getting these cards graded -- and either are collectors. About 40% of the high-grade sets that I know about have only the stars graded. PSA 7's from this set generally sell for less than $15 - 20 each -- with most 8's selling for under $35 - $50. As time goes by -- populations will increase, the prices paid for the low population commons will decrease, and it will be a more "efficient" market. Right now we have low populations combined with some rich collectors skewing the data significantly.

Davalillo is right on target with his 1952 Topps example. Similar examples exist with the 1933 Goudey set -- and, lately, it seems to low population PSA 9 cards from the 1959 Fleer set.

For prices like the Carey realized, I would be much more comfortable being a seller of these cards than a buyer.

theBobs

Marc,

How do you reconcile the strategy you just subscribed to while also paying $1000.00 for a 1975 PSA 9 Mike Schmidt card? I am just curious, as certainly the amount of ungraded 1975 Topps is much greater than from the 1950s. Not trying to cause troubles, just curious about all of these buying/selling strategies -- I am refreshed by Jim's approach. How does it translate forward to the 1960s and 1970s?

Brian

Mantlefan

Marc, you make some good points. There are however, 20 1957 Topps BB sets registered and mine is not on there yet. I have 2 PSA 8 Careys, so that leaves just 15 for the rest of the country.

brucemo

I agree with the above regarding low-pop stuff. I've sold several low-pop cards over the past year, and in every case there are now many more of them.

In a few cases, I've been the buyer of a low-pop card, and the card turns up on eBay a week later, sometimes a couple of times. People see the multiple and figure that they want some of that action, if they have the card already, and others send the card in.

bruce

theBobs

<< <i>I have 2 PSA 8 Careys, so that leaves just 15 for the rest of the country. >>



I would have posted one of those Carey's on ebay with a huge BIN a couple of days ago.

qualitycards

1957 Yankees common PSA-8
I Love you 1957 guys!
This auction of mine ended tonight, and while I didn't get "Andy Carey" money, I was very pleased with the results.
We are talking about a pop 39 in PSA-8, a card that I've had on my website for $75.00 for quite awhile with no bites
or requests for scans, sold for over triple my price. This card sold higher then a Whitey Ford (SMR $225.00), Pee Wee Reese (SMR $200.00) and almost double the price of Richie Ashburn (SMR $120.00)... I can't explain why, but I'm not complaining ...jay

mikeschmidt

<<Marc, How do you reconcile the strategy you just subscribed to while also paying $1000.00 for a 1975 PSA 9 Mike Schmidt card? >>

Brian -- the strategy I proposed is a rational one. No where did I ever contend that I am always a rational person.

That being said -- the 1975 Topps #70 Mike Schmidt card has nearly 500 graded examples, with only six examples graded PSA 9. The card is 10 times rarer to find in PSA 9 than his rookie card. At the time of my purchase, it was the first such example offered publically in over 3 years. Also with an SMR that I believe sits at $500 now, paying double SMR is something completely different than paying 30x SMR.

Finally -- I have received at least two offers on the card for a profit over what I paid for the card. I could certainly have taken those offers and buy back later at a lower price. On the other side of the token, I think that my collection is one of the first major "modern star" player collections to exist in a PSA Registry. Since I submitted the Registry for Mike Schmidt, five or six other players have joined in. None of them major yet -- but it is working in the path I saw when I started to collect Schmidt graded cards a few years ago. The 1975 Topps Schmidt was the last card I needed, and it is a pleasure to own.

MS