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will this MLB record ever be matched?
galaxy27
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in Sports Talk
i took a look at St Louis' farm system a couple of weeks ago and noticed a couple of guys who were blistering the baseball in the minors
i asked my dad, "what are they waiting on?"
well, one of the guys i referenced was in fact called up yesterday (Sat). his name is Joshua Baez, he of 34 home runs at AAA Memphis this season. last night he made his MLB debut against the Cubs. the feat he pulled off may stand until the end of time:
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He definitely had Boyds number and Boyd just wasnt good tonight. Its insanely unlikely but is potentially doable since 4 homerun games have happened before. The CY Young pitching records and Tatis 2 grand slams in 1 inning are pretty much set in stone
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Amazing feat! And power to all fields.
Ridonculous
The scary thing about this guy, watching the video, is when he hit the first one, he watched it go out like he expected it. An air of confidence almost beyond belief. The announcer called it "swagger", and I agree.
I'd be fairly sure that today, he's going to receive a variety of nasty off-speed pitches, and we'll see how he does.
Yesterday was a very Cub day. Several MLB players have had their "firsts" against them this season. Aim to please.
is this hobby fantabulous or what
If it was relisted, wonder what it would sell for if Baez does an 0-fer today?
Then again if he hits 3 more today, it might sell for mansion buying money.
Baez thru 6 innings is 0-fer 4, and just left the bases loaded to end the inning.
Might want to hold off on printing those Hall of Fame edition Baez baseball cards. 🤔
That was very predictable. Baseball always comes back to the mean. Traditionally guys that homer in their first at bat dont have the greatest of careers which is like a weird curse like being on the Madden cover in football
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All records are made to be broken and most eventually are.
I think it was in 1993 playing for Cleveland Carlos Baerga became the 1st player in MLB history to hit HR’s from each side of the plate in the same inning!! It was a feat that had never been accomplished in 100+ years of play, certainly that one would stand the test of time.
It only took about 10 years to be done again and another 5 to happen a third time.
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety," --- Benjamin Franklin
@Maywood
that's an incredible accomplishment, but it differs in one very important respect: the sheer number of opportunities players have to make it happen. if you're a switch hitter, the possibility is there before the first pitch of every game you play.
you get one shot to do what Baez did when you join the bigs, and one shot only. for as long as the MLB has been around, only two players had ever hit two home runs in their first two at-bats. and interestingly enough, those two guys also played for St Louis -- one for the Browns, one for the Cardinals.
i found this to be just as mind-blowing as what Baez did: a guy named Keith McDonald did it for St Louis back in 2000. he hit another home run that season. those were the only three hits of his career.
Fernando Tatis Sr. is the only player to hit 2 grand slams in one inning.
But how many opportunities have there been for a player to hit a second grand slam in the same inning?
Meaning, how many times has a player, having already hit a grand slam, had a plate appearance in the same inning with the bases loaded?
I have no idea how to look that up, but I have to imagine that doesn't happen too often.
I would be surprised if that happened more than once every couple of seasons.
More like every couple centuries. 2 abs in one inning is extremely rare, two in the same inning with the bases loaded theres a pretty good chance hes the only one thats ever gotten that opportunity/
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I calculated it and forgot to hit 'Post'. So it has happened 9 times since 1946 and before that there's no record or it never happened. Twice since Tatis Sr. did it... 2003 (Abreu) and 2008 (Ibanez). So it's happened 9 times since 1946 which is almost once every 9 years that the opportunity has presented itself. Statistically it's a bit more of a long-shot. I calculated around once every 16.5 years. About 2% of the time a hitter gets an AB with the bases loaded. 5% of the time they hit a HR. 1.5% of the time their team bats around again after the slam. If that hitter who hit the GS comes back up the bases should be loaded for them 21% of the time.
blah blah blah and a single player has a chance of about 1 out of 350,000 of having this opportunity... when scale across an entire season of half-innings played by all teams over a full season of min-12-batter half-innings is still a bet for only the most advanced sports bettors. It looks reasonable when you use a forecasting model to put those in human terms...
6% that this happens next season.
27% that it happens within the next 5 years.
46% that it will happen again within the next 10 years.
99.8% that it will happen again within the next 100 years.
The chances of converting that 2nd GS though..
0.3% next year.
1.5% in the next 5
3.0% in the next 10.
26% in the next 100.
The game could change in ways that do make this record impossible to break but there's a small chance we see it again. Good chance we're disappointed many times before the next twofer.
That record is impossible to break. It takes 3 in the same inning to break it, 2 only ties it
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I was responding to the question about when it will happen again. The calculation of when it could be broken though... that's something you can do as an exercise if you want, but I will tell you now... as I squint... it's not impossible! no term forces this to zero.
And theoretically someone could throw the speed of light or hit an infinite number of grand slams in an inning. Theory and real world sports reality are two very different things. Theoretically a pitcher could throw 27 pitches every single game of their career with perfect games every time. Not going to happen. Three grand slams in an inning by the same player not going to happen.
Those 9 abs better have had their first one be a grand slam otherwise they dont qualify
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@ElMagoStrikeZone
remember when Tuffy Rhodes cranked 3 on opening day many moons ago ?
he flamed out not too long after that, went to Japan, then launched about 500 bombs
You're a man of many hills - to die upon.
Here what you're doing is saying that something that HAS ACTUALLY HAPPENED can NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN because it is IMPOSSIBLE. Do you see the contradiction?
While you want to argue about the probability someone does it 3 times to break the record I was really just providing some data to respond to @jack131 who postulated. He postulated a question which I found interesting. How often does the opportunity arise and what are the chances of these probabilities converging. While 3 GS in an inning is an interesting thought experiment for you I don't have the space for that type of what if. The chances of what Tatis Sr. did in 1999 happening again in the next 100 years is around 26%. If we want to apply infinity correctly - bearing in mind Cantor's proof, someone hitting 3 Grand Slams in an inning is infinitely more probable than someone throwing a baseball at the speed of light.
Just enjoy that cool things happen and stay away from Maths bro.
Remember in the 1980s and early 2000s when a American hitter was about to break Ohs single season HR record all the Japanese teams stopped pitching to them to make sure it didnt happen
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Im talking about BREAKING it which means three in the same inning and you said wasnt impossible which was a meaningless just arguing to argue comment. Its unbreakable. It might get tied one day but no ones getting 3 in one inning thats like winning back to back billion dollar powerballs
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Legend in Chicago. Do one good thing and eat or drink for free for the rest of your natural born life. 😏
I validate you. You are talking about BREAKING it! Which means "the sample player hits a grand slam in 3 ABs in the same half-inning". It's not unbreakable. You're multiplying numbers > 0 by other numbers > 0. This is an accepted proof; if a > b and b > 0, then a * b > 0. That means it's not impossible. The word you're looking for is unlikely. add a very and we're shaking hands... except I don't really do that because weird right? Let's hold hands and say our names? Wow. Weird. Say that aloud next time someone extends a hand and watch their face. I do it sometimes... It's hilarious. talk about breaking ice...
anyways. for the againth time... I wasn't talking to you about breaking the record. I would actually call it a feat of random chance... or simply. being the baddest of bad boys.
Post all the equations you want youre the one dying on a hill. Its possible for a pitcher to throw 27 pitches and pitch a perfect game every time, its possible for someone to hit a home run every pitch, its possible for a player to score on every shot or a goalie to never give up a goal in the NHL, its possible for a QB to throw a TD every play on the field, its possible for a NBA player to never miss a shot, its possible for someone to throw 200 mph.
None of that is going to happen just like no one is going to hit 3 GS in the same inning
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Yeah. But you’re not really in this conversation because I was still not talking to you about the odds of the record being broken. I get that you’re able to conceive rare things. Wow, what an AMAZING imagination. You’re right buddy. 3 GS by the same player in the same inning is practically unfathomable.
In October of 1903 the New York Times published an article proclaiming that machines will not be able to fly for a MILLION years. 69 days later (Excellent…) that prediction was proven wrong. You’re just not finding the right audience!
Baez batting average now at .167
He hasn't had a hit since that third home run. Perhaps an off-season regimen of a lot of off-speed stuff thrown in batting practice, can turn it around for him. But as of right now, it appears like he could be heading back to the minors. Cardinals have a shot at a playoff spot, and can ill afford to keep an outfielder in the lineup batting .167
I'd sure hate to be in that posted baseball card at 17k. Always a high risk-reward proposition of paying top dollar for cards such as this.
So now your argument is a 1903 NY times. This is just funny at this point. Thanks for the laughs.
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You’re welcome. That’s not my argument though. It’s an example of a wild prediction that a thing will not happen. Don’t forget that we’re not arguing about anything because we’re not talking about the same thing. Even still you’re wrong if you believe improbability and impossibility are the same. Stay frosty!
I will laugh if this kid never hits a HR again and this same card can be had for $3 soon
I get that its a super special version of the card but who ever bought that is an idiot or laundering money. Youre basically banking on him having a HOF level career
At least with the Othani ones people knew if things didnt work out in MLB they could still get a lot for them from someone in Japan
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Good grief - batting average now at .143 - yikes!
What is interesting though, is the Cardinals have played some good baseball since he arrived. Probably just a coincidence, but did those 3 homers provide some sort of weird spark of some sort? Probably not, however if he does start hitting the baseball again, and that's a big "if", I think the Cardinals may have an outside chance of doing well in the playoffs.
I really dont think the Cards will get a wildcard as long as the Cubs dont forget how to play again. You have Philly, SD, Cubs and even the Diamond backs all in the mix
The Cards have 12 games coming up against Philly, Dodgers, White Sox and Brewers. Even the 3 against the Nats wont be an easy series and depending on the rotation timing might run into Skenes in the Pirates series
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Skenes has been particularly unimpressive lately. It looks like something is wrong.
Oops - not in the starting lineup tonight.
Will his nickname become "meteor"? A bright flash for a short time and then nothing? We shall see.
Pasted:
Baez is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Reds.
Baez made waves in his MLB debut Saturday against the Cubs with home runs in his first three trips to the plate, but since then, he's gone 0-for-18 with an 0:7 BB:K, a hit-by-pitch and a sacrifice fly. The Cardinals will give the young outfielder a mental break by sending him to the bench for the first time since he was recalled from Triple-A Memphis. Bryan Torres will spell Baez in left field and bat seventh.
Mantle was in such a horrible slump when he was sent down in 1951 after stinking it up at the plate that he went 0-22 in the minors... at one point wanting to quit before... and then there's the rest of the story.
Realistically its so late in the season they probably wont waste using an option sending him back down which will hurt him but they were giving him a break. They aremt that far out of a wild card spot and their remaining schedule isnt that bad. Hed likely be a September call up again which isnt that far away and theyll want him playoff eligible if they do steal a spot
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Well he got a hit tonight as a pinch hitter. I'm sure the Cardinals were glad to see that.
Cardinals rallied in the top of the ninth, to come within one run, with a runner on third, with two outs. Baez was on deck and that would have been a most interesting at bat. But unfortunately the third out was made to end the game
Baez just hit another tater.............against the Phillies
Did the Cardinals pinch hit for him despite the homer? That must have ticked him off a little bit.
St Louis was down 1 in the 8th and Philly had dipped into their pen with a righty. Alec Burleson, a very good lefty hitter who normally starts, was available on the bench. last i checked, he was 3rd in the MLB in runs batted in. he ended up leading off the inning with a single and came around to score.
Baez is very raw, but you can see the talent. the home run he hit was 99 mph high in the zone and he went up and got it. crazy bat speed.
was a very entertaining game........i watched most of it.
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Yes, it was definitely the right move to pinch hit, to try and win the game. Hopefully the young rookie understood that.
Baez without question has talent. Despite his still too low batting average, I think he is being coached up fairly well, not to chase some of that junk they're throwing him. Try to cut down on the K's. As I've noticed he has been drawing walks fairly well lately.
Unless Baez quits on himself, I think the Cardinals have a solid long term productive player there.
It’s amazing that Baez has been elected to the HOF, been labeled a flop, and tonight plays his first home game in his non-rookie season.
he went yard again last night
since being called up to the bigs: 10 hits
6 of them home runs
Hes also 23, he should get better but doesnt always happen
Fire AJ Preller