Does a resurgent Jacob Degrom have a shot at the Hall?
1948_Swell_Robinson
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in Sports Talk
He pitched 172 innings last year and is seemingly healthy again. After four years of pure injury, here are his career totals:
1,584 IP
2.57 ERA (2nd All Time Post War)
151 ERA+ (3rd All Time among SP)
1,908 K
5.41 k/BB ratio (1st All Time)
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Comments
Excellent numbers but just so few innings for a starter. He’s pitched 33% of the innings Tom Seaver did and 41% of Bob Gibson’s innings.
DeGrom is 38 so probably not going to put up many more innings.
His ERA is impressive but when I look at Seaver and Gibson’s etc. complete games I’m not as impressed with Degrom’s ERA. Seaver, Palmer, Carlton etc. faced lineups 4-5 times a game. DeGrom 2-3 times.
Bret Saberhagen was a great pitcher who was known for being injury plagued. But he still has 1000 more innings than DeGrom. That’s 111 games. And Saberhagen had a very impressive era+ of 126 but he gets no hof consideration. And I don’t think he should.
3 more solid, injury free, years and teasing 2500 Ks or 150 wins and I would expect his peak seasons to give him a great shot. Low probability but he already has the peak years.
He's not getting anywhere close to 150 wins. He's 38 years old, and in a 13 year career so far, he has 99 wins; against 67 losses. He's also unlikely to sniff 2,500 K's, as he's currently at 1,908.
Steve
if he was to stay healthy for 3 more years what do you think he win and strikeout totals might end up around?
Instead of waiting to see if DeGrom can get in 3 more healthy, productive seasons let’s just turn our attention to Chris Sale.
Chris Sale is Jacob DeGrom plus 3 more healthy, productive seasons.
I think Sale is already in or at the very cusp of in.
To answer the other questions above:
I bring up Degrom because his rates are at the very top all time wise and he has the obvious lack of innings due to injury. Since he is from a different era, IP for starting pitchers now are always going to be lower than yesteryear so that yardstick is already changing, but with DeGrom the question is how much.
Win totals for SP are judged much differently for the era DeGrom is pitching in, so they are likely to not even be part of the equation when he comes up.
Historic wise DeGrom is closer in IP to Koufax than Koufax is to most HOF pitchers from his era. DeGrom is only 744 IP away from Koufax. Koufax is over 2,000 IP lower than guys like Seaver, Ryan , Carlton, Blyleveln etc..
DeGrom is likely to be at 1,700 IP by the end of this year with over 2,000 K's and the all time best K/BB ratio....and likely 3rd or 4th all time in ERA+.
An example. For active pitchers, here are the current leaders in adjusted pitching runs saved:
Verlander 365
Scherzer 317
Sale 295
Degrom 246
Cole 210
DeGrom will be about 1,200 innings away from Scherzer after this year and only about 57 runs saved away from him.
There is a good chance Degrom finishes near Scherzer in runs saved(317) and likely in about 600 less IP. So when judging vs contemporaries, he will be right there.
Then once Degrom retires, there won't be many who will be passing him.
Max Fried is the next starter after Cole and he is at 151
Wheeler 150
Sonny Gray 123
Snell 122
Later down the list tied at 19th.
Ohtani and Skenes at 92
I'm just eye balling the whole list and I think Skenes is the only active SP that could pass DeGrom going forward. Of course he is just one injury away from that not happening too. Time will tell.
So in the end, DeGrom's only true contemporaries who will be ahead of him will be Kershaw and Verlander at the top. Then Sale, Scherzer,and Degrom in the next tier. Obviously the story isn't finished yet. But even right now, Degrom is 57th all time in that run prevention at 246 runs saved, and most likely will only go higher, and with nobody except Skenes possibly passing him in the next two decades.