"Instead of rate cuts and easy monetary policy, the "market" now expects rate hikes and tightness. Is this a sign of more weakness to come or could prices be near a bottom? Even if the news from the Middle East continues to worsen, I expect a realization that instead of hiking rates to control inflation, the Fed is more likely to cut rates to promote liquidity. This will lift sentiment off the mat and drive speculator buying back into the COMEX precious metals. Contract open interest will rise, and with it, prices. "
Open interest in silver contracts has dropped 31% since Jan. 26. Since then spot price has plummeted from $120. There is no question that open interest determines spot price.
The War Shock and its affect are now over. Interest rates will now drive open interest (metal prices) with lower rates (or even a shift in expectation to lower rates) resulting in higher PM prices. Currently the misguided consensus is higher rates, creating a buying opportunity. The recent highs tell us what price is capable of doing. The fact that gold and silver both reached those highs tells us that the highs were not a "Hunt Brothers" type event.
When gold and silver move together, it signals the coming end of fiat money.
After all, the petrodollar is dying. However it is needed in the intertanational US bond market, something that is also dying. A market for Iraninan oil for US dollars only would be a major boost for a dying international bond market.
When gold and silver move together, it signals the coming end of fiat money.
From a Foreign Policy Intelligence Report: "...Mideast countries have less $$$ to buy gold, might have to sell gold to close budget/defense needs, etc."
@GoldFinger1969 said: From a Foreign Policy Intelligence Report: "...Mideast countries have less $$$ to buy gold, might have to sell gold to close budget/defense needs, etc."
Not sure where you put Turkey (geography-wise), but not just Mideast
When the markets (equities, bonds, crypto and PMs) are in the toilet from a risk off due to Iran & potential stagflation, wouldn't read too much into the gold and silver decline. The fundamentals are there and $4,300 and $65 are still more then what I was expecting early last year. They'll be back.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Retiring at 55, what day is today?
Comments
Will desperate countries start selling their gold to purchase oil?
Loves me some shiny!
“Often wrong, but never in doubt.”
Flight to safety today, oil up gold up economic uncertainty on the horizon.
oil down to 87 right now
it's not confirmed
Iran is the major reason for gold and silver sell off. Buy the dip.
Price, sentiment, and open interest have all collapsed since the onset of the Iran War three weeks ago.
"Instead of rate cuts and easy monetary policy, the "market" now expects rate hikes and tightness. Is this a sign of more weakness to come or could prices be near a bottom? Even if the news from the Middle East continues to worsen, I expect a realization that instead of hiking rates to control inflation, the Fed is more likely to cut rates to promote liquidity. This will lift sentiment off the mat and drive speculator buying back into the COMEX precious metals. Contract open interest will rise, and with it, prices. "
Open interest in silver contracts has dropped 31% since Jan. 26. Since then spot price has plummeted from $120. There is no question that open interest determines spot price.
The War Shock and its affect are now over. Interest rates will now drive open interest (metal prices) with lower rates (or even a shift in expectation to lower rates) resulting in higher PM prices. Currently the misguided consensus is higher rates, creating a buying opportunity. The recent highs tell us what price is capable of doing. The fact that gold and silver both reached those highs tells us that the highs were not a "Hunt Brothers" type event.
When gold and silver move together, it signals the coming end of fiat money.
End game: forcing sale of Iranian oil in only US dollars?
After all, the petrodollar is dying. However it is needed in the intertanational US bond market, something that is also dying. A market for Iraninan oil for US dollars only would be a major boost for a dying international bond market.
When gold and silver move together, it signals the coming end of fiat money.
From a Foreign Policy Intelligence Report: "...Mideast countries have less $$$ to buy gold, might have to sell gold to close budget/defense needs, etc."
Not sure where you put Turkey (geography-wise), but not just Mideast
https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-03-26/turkey-taps-its-gold-reserves-sells-584-tonnes-gold-two-weeks
When the markets (equities, bonds, crypto and PMs) are in the toilet from a risk off due to Iran & potential stagflation, wouldn't read too much into the gold and silver decline. The fundamentals are there and $4,300 and $65 are still more then what I was expecting early last year. They'll be back.
war has strengthened dollar, lower PM prices. one reason for war.
Dollar-pegged pizza in Tehran
When gold and silver move together, it signals the coming end of fiat money.
Love that Iranian Pizza. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Retiring at 55, what day is today?
I like mine with Italian sausage and bacon. Yum!
Loves me some shiny!
“Often wrong, but never in doubt.”
I'd never want to profit off of the suffering of large numbers of innocent people which would be a truly inhuman and depraved state of mind.