A southpaw discussion. Koufax vs. Carlton

craig44

I was thinking about these two recently. Koufax was a comet who burned out fast. Carlton was consistently very very good with seasons of greatness. Who do you think was better? If you were a GM, who would you draft?

1948_Swell_Robinson

Under the current salary free agent system, I would draft Carlton, because his sixth and final year before he became a free agent eligible was 1972, which means he gave me a lot of production for cheap salary.

On the flip side, Koufax's first six years were famously not much, so his cheap years would not have given me much.

If offering a free agent contract when first eligible, I would take Koufax.

That is all in hindsight though because we know how it turned out.

In reality, I would draft Koufax because his stuff would play better and had more potential if he wasn't rushed to MLB before he was truly ready.

craig44

@1948_Swell_Robinson said:
Under the current salary free agent system, I would draft Carlton, because his sixth and final year before he became a free agent eligible was 1972, which means he gave me a lot of production for cheap salary.

On the flip side, Koufax's first six years were famously not much, so his cheap years would not have given me much.

If offering a free agent contract when first eligible, I would take Koufax.

That is all in hindsight though because we know how it turned out.

In reality, I would draft Koufax because his stuff would play better and had more potential if he wasn't rushed to MLB before he was truly ready.

good points! Koufax would have more team controlled years currently though because his team would not be forced to keep him on the MLB roster right off the bat like the dodgers did. He could have learned to pitch in the minors for 2-3 seasons then his service time would have started.

1948_Swell_Robinson

@craig44 said:

@1948_Swell_Robinson said:
Under the current salary free agent system, I would draft Carlton, because his sixth and final year before he became a free agent eligible was 1972, which means he gave me a lot of production for cheap salary.

On the flip side, Koufax's first six years were famously not much, so his cheap years would not have given me much.

If offering a free agent contract when first eligible, I would take Koufax.

That is all in hindsight though because we know how it turned out.

In reality, I would draft Koufax because his stuff would play better and had more potential if he wasn't rushed to MLB before he was truly ready.

good points! Koufax would have more team controlled years currently though because his team would not be forced to keep him on the MLB roster right off the bat like the dodgers did. He could have learned to pitch in the minors for 2-3 seasons then his service time would have started.

Yup, his formative years would have been treated differently leading to a possible different outcome.

craig44

can you imagine what prime Koufax would have gotten in free agency today?

if Kyle Tucker got $60MM/year...

stevek

Koufax.

In any event, great to have those two to choose from. 😊

craig44

If I am a GM chosing between these 2 players, knowing how their careers will pan out, I choose Carlton.

I prefer the longer very very good careers over the shorter, burning comet ones. look at it this way:
from rookie to age 24, Carlton was the better pitcher. from age 25-30, Koufax was better. From age 31 on, it was Carlton in a landslide. in fact, I can honestly say I was just as good a pitcher as Sandy was after age 30!

Steve threw more than 2x as many innings. He also had some fantastic single seasons, they were just not strung together like Sandys were. I think that at his peak, Sandy was a better pitcher, but I will take a 20 year career of very very good with single great seasons sprinkled in.

another example: I would prefer to have eddie murrays career than dick allens if i were a GM drafting 2 players.

1948_Swell_Robinson

@craig44 said:
If I am a GM chosing between these 2 players, knowing how their careers will pan out, I choose Carlton.

I prefer the longer very very good careers over the shorter, burning comet ones. look at it this way:
from rookie to age 24, Carlton was the better pitcher. from age 25-30, Koufax was better. From age 31 on, it was Carlton in a landslide. in fact, I can honestly say I was just as good a pitcher as Sandy was after age 30!

Steve threw more than 2x as many innings. He also had some fantastic single seasons, they were just not strung together like Sandys were. I think that at his peak, Sandy was a better pitcher, but I will take a 20 year career of very very good with single great seasons sprinkled in.

another example: I would prefer to have eddie murrays career than dick allens if i were a GM drafting 2 players.

Good points.

If Koufax had pitched to the same age as Nolan Ryan did, then Koufax would have been in the 1982 Topps set!

JoeBanzai

Carlton's top 6 full seasons ERA+ average 156.
Koufax's top 6 full seasons ERA+ average 160.

Carlton then has TEN full seasons where his ERA+ was over 100. Average 110.
Koufax then has THREE full seasons where his ERA+ was over 100. Average 104.

No reason whatsoever knowing this would I choose Koufax.

I'll Take Warren Spahn over both of them.
Top 6 full seasons average ERA+ 144.
ELEVEN seasons with an average ERA+ of 119!
SIXTEEN seasons with an ERA+ of 115 or better!

coolstanley

Carlton. And I would have him intentionally walk Johnny Bench every time lol.

BLUEJAYWAY

Would of went with Carlton for longevity reasons knowing ahead how both of their careers played out.