Nolan Ryan vs Phil Niekro
1948_Swell_Robinson
Posts: 2,344 ✭✭✭✭✭
IP
Niekro 5,404
Ryan 5,386
ERA+
Niekro 115
Ryan 112
WAR
Niekro 97
Ryan 83.6
Even if one dismisses the ERA+ or WAR...you still have this:
Niekro one second place Cy Young finish.
Ryan one second place Cy Young finish.
Niekro one ERA title.
Ryan TWO ERA titles.
Niekro TWO Wins title.
Ryan zero wins titles.
W-L
Niekro 318-274
Ryan 324-292
How do you reconcile that the end results(run prevention and W/L) are almost identical between these two while knowing how vastly different pitchers they were and how vastly different they are viewed/admired?
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Comments
Niekro, Spahn, Marichal, Feller.
Just a few great pitchers who don’t seem to get much attention from this board or the card collecting community.
I appreciate the baseball posts, but this time of year it’s hard to get any responses. I wish football and winter would just go away so the boys of summer could get back to work.
remarkably similar results arrived at by very different paths.
quite literally the opposite ends of the spectrum of pitching.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
What the two most have in common, in addition to being all-time greats, is that they toiled for bad teams and so had pedestrian W/L records, and therefore didn't receive the Cy Young Awards they deserved.
Overall record speaks to consistency and longevity.
The mark of a great pitcher isn’t that to me - those are the marks of a good pitcher.
Greatness is g7 - pick any pitcher from an era for your starter and know the opposition picks second - who do you want on the mound ?
Let’s say the era is 70’s-mid 80s - that covers the prime of both Niekro and Ryan’s careers. So right before Clemens came into the picture and right after guys like Koufax and Gibson dominated. With those criteria - who you want starting for you Ryan or Niekro if those are your choices ?
Personally - I’m taking Ryan. He’s giving me the best chance of shutting down the opposition. The other names I’m considering are Seaver and Carlton here. Niekro - over the season he’s a workhorse - he’s going to help carry my team and save the pen. But he’s not a “stopper” - those 3 are my aces and Niekro is a reliable 4th.
On a personal note - met Joe and Phil a few times - both very nice guys. I think Phil would have said Ryan. Nolan could shit down a hitter and when he did give up the big hit - it was a solo dinger, he wasn’t putting guys on THEN giving up a homer. Phil’s style of pitching left this as a possibility.
Yea - playing for so so teams hurt.
Ryan also benefited from a decade in the Astro dome shadows too. And neither played on horrible teams in the 80s - Nolan on some good Astros teams - Phil didn’t get that advantage the last 7 years of his career. At the same time Nolan took a few years to put it all together while Phil got off to the better start. It evened out the career stats in the end a little more making it a closer comparison.
@Darin
There are those that collect to assemble a card collection that is representative of MLB History. And those collectors, myself included, are in the minority. A d there is a notable difference between representative and completeness in terms of collecting. I doubt I will ever complete any of the topps sets from the 1950s and I am okay with that. I am at a loss as to explain valuations placed on certain players' cards. It seems so much is based whether entrance to the HOF is/was possible and how the player is remembered... or even if they are remembered. And that is part of the problem. There are several excellent players that had significant careers that will never be in Cooperstown. And that seems to weigh heavily on valuations (-besides condition/grade etc.).
At least the pitchers you referenced are remembered and had a significant impact on the progression of MLB. The real sad part is those players that have fallen through the cracks will rarely, if ever, get the recognition they deserve. I don't see that changing. This would become a much longer read if I started listing players and then I would feel guilty for those that I omitted.
There is no real positive to this other than one can really assemble a representative sample of vintage cards on a shoe string budget.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
dont forget Jim Palmer, Bert Blyleven and Fergie Jenkins. I would take jim and bert over ryan or niekro. possibly fergie too
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
I’d take Palmer or Gaylord Perry over Niekro myself.
Palmer played for much better Os teams - but Perry is a good comp to Niekro playing for some truly mediocre teams.
Blyleven another longevity case to me - hall of good - never greatness. Fergie was pretty good - as was Catfish and a few other guys.
But bottom line - if game to win - no one’s first pick was Niekro in the era - Ryan makes a few list but I’d think Seaver gets more votes personally
Jim Palmer does not get enough credit IMO. His lifetime SP ERA of 2.86 is tied with Seaver's 2.86. Second best to Koufax 2.76 since WWII but Palmer has 1,600 more innings than Koufax. Kershaw has since broken that mark on all of them.
Pitcher WAR does not capture Palmer appropriately as pitcher WAR tries to assign a value to the defense. WAR cannot even accurately assign a defensive value to an individual defender, let alone a whole team of them and extrapolate their value apart from the pitchers value...and the pitcher is nearly ALL the defensive value.
I think Bert was pretty great. 5th all time in strikeouts and among pitchers post integration, he is 4th all time in shoutouts, only 2 behind the leader, Spahn.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Whitey Ford had a 2.75 ERA. Clayton Kershaw tops them all with a 2.53.
forgot about ford. I did mention kershaw above.
I wonder how much Fords ERA was affected by never having to face the best lineup in baseball for most of his career?
I am sure it would have been higher than 2.75 if he had to face the Yankees 8 times a season.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
When the cases are this close those factors are definitely worth mentioning.
As long as we're nitpicking, Ford missed a lot of starts in Fenway over his career. Since his ERA in Fenway was north of 6, that helped his career ERA if not significantly, at least noticeably.
Whenever I watched Ryan the chance of a no hitter always got me to watch him pitch.
Your observations about Ford at Fenway bore fruit . He was tore up at Fenway . Here is his lifetime breakdowns .https://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/F/Lfordw1010.htm
that was a good observation about Ford not doing well against Boston.
I remember reading that Lefty Grove missed a lot of starts against the Yankees as well.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Grove did not miss starts against the Yankees. Ignoring the A's and the Red Sox, for whom Grove pitched, he faced the other teams an average of 66 times each. He faced the Yankees 69 times.
I will ammend my statement after a little research. It appears Grove, or Connie Mack, had him dodge the Yankees for a few seasons-1930 and 31. it looks like he didnt do too well against the Yankees in 1929. His ERA against them was almost double vs NY than his ERA vs the rest of the league. then the next 2 seasons his workload vs NY was considerably less. here is 1930:
7-0 with a 2.85 ERA in 53.2 innings against Boston.
3-1 with a 2.10 ERA in 34.1 innings against STL.
3-1 with a 3.28 ERA in 35.2 innings against Chicago.
5-1 with a 1.50 ERA in 48.0 innings against Cleveland.
7-1 with a 2.25 ERA in 56.0 innings against Detroit.
2-1 with a 2.31 ERA in 46.2 innings against Washington.
1-0 with a 4.86 ERA in 16.2 innings against New York
only 11.1 of those innings vs. NY were as a starter.
the next season, 1931, he only threw 17.2 innings as a starter against NY and 21.2 overall with an ERA of 4.12.
it looks like he was back pitching vs NY at a normal workload for 1932, throwing 41 innings, but he got shelled by them with an ERA of 5.27
I have not looked further into it than that, but it certainly appears he got hit hard in 29, did not face them much at all compared to the rest of the league for 30 and 31, then pitched against them again in 32 and got shelled.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
In 1929, Grove's ERA against NY was 2.70, and his record was 2-1 with 5 starts. I don't see anything there.
In 1930, no argument, something changed. He only started 2 games, but he did pick up 3 saves which is odd if Mack didn't trust him against the Yankees.
In 1931, Grove's innings were very low against NY, but that's because he got shelled and pulled early; his number of starts against NY was normal. He probably would have liked to dodge the Yankees, but he didn't.
And again, over the course of his career Grove started against NY more than he did against every other team except Detroit.
Whitey Ford (or Stengel) dodged Fenway, and to some smallish degree Ford's career stats look better than they should because of it. Whatever happened in 1930 Grove more than made up for over the rest of his career. Yes, Grove struggled against the Yankees, as did every other pitcher, but his career stats include that struggle and no "adjustment" is necessary.
I somehow missed tyre Kershaw mention. Sorry!