@DCW said:
Silver took off in October with record demand in India. What continues to drive the price of silver and also gold?
worldwide de-dollarization since 2022 sanctions, resulting in record central bank buying (dollar was shot in the foot by political sanctions and reckless US debt) and the rise of gold as "international money," being led by BRICS. Today, global central banks hold more physical gold than US Treasuries.
perceived breakdown in futures markets (COMEX offline for hours, reported drainage of physical metal from their vaults).
supply crisis at London's LBMA exchange.
demand for physical silver is stronger than the COMEX’s once unstoppable paper market shorts.
recent panic moves by COMEX to dampen price (raising margins/leverage requirements).
upcoming decision in January on silver tariffs (buying the rumor).
apparent shift to Singapore exchange where prices are based more fundamentals than paper promises.
suddenly the world wants the real McCoy.
the world is finally realizing that Rock Now Beats Paper.
precious metals are an open middle finger to governments who have grossly and negligently mismanaged the national currencies by which most citizens measure their wealth.
the role of paper determing the price of physical is being reversed. The West is loosing control of the pricing >mechanism.
free price discovery is returning to the metals after decades of legalized COMEX fraud.
Question now is "what attempts will be made to reign in prices (reduce the demand)" and will they succeed? This becomes a concern because PM demand steals demand for currencies (Central Bank buying is the proof) and it threatens investment in Wall Street's "preferred" assets. PM price history demonstrates that prices will not be "allowed" to reach their full potential.
Possibilities are:
continuing rise in leverage requirements on paper contracts. Silver nearly hit $50 per ounce in mid-January 1980 >(Hunt brothers) and then, due to the abrupt changes in margin requirements, fell to $10 per ounce by the end of >March.
further restrictions/actions by the futures exchanges to prevent bleeding of metal from exchanges' vaults.
Many of these points are conspiratorial fantasies that have been debunked by another post/link....the mining executives...etc. It's on par with 9/11 and JFK baloney.
@RiveraFamilyCollect said:
The economy seems like it might be driving the prices of precious metals up as inflation hammers people's >budgets.
Inflation is under 3%....it was 8-9% 3 years ago.
Perhaps elsewhere but certainly not here in The Commonwealth. Inflation appears worse than ever, sad times for many. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Retiring at 55, what day is today?
Many of these points are conspiratorial fantasies that have been debunked by another post/link....the mining executives...etc. It's on par with 9/11 and JFK baloney.
Many of these points are conspiratorial fantasies.........................lol, seriously are you 100% brainwashed or just hallucinating on some strong mushrooms?
Name one of the above that's not been happening.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@GoldFinger1969 said:
I have most of my silver in actual coins and/or commemoratives which most of you probably consider a waste. Whatever...I LIKE them and that's all that matters.
So selling them involves alot more difficulty than selling bars or rounds or ASEs. When I am convinced silver is near a peak (look for a margined hedge fund to get carried out on CNBC) I will hedge my holdings by buying an inverse ETF or selling short (which I really don't like to do).
I can also prepare by building up cash to buy on the inevitable drop/dip/crash.
.
Nothing at all wrong with having your precious metals in the form of valuable collector coins so that you can enjoy them.
That is a benefit that a paper derivative will never have.
What a crazy market. Higher silver prices sort of takes the fun out of collecting. Its like, why pay twice as much for the same coins you could have bought a year ago?
But this time around, supposedly its industrial demand that is the dominant force, not just speculative froth.
I dont know what coin dealers are doing, but at some point they're going to run out of cash to buy more stock. Big banks and short interests can borrow and play the market on options.
@jmski52 said:
Many of these points are conspiratorial fantasies.........................lol, seriously are you 100% brainwashed or just >hallucinating on some strong mushrooms?
Name one of the above that's not been happening.
Even if the rise in margin during the Hunt episode caused the drop in silver.....the fact that it took 30 years to get back there shows you the price was not real. If the margin requirements weren't so low, and if the Hunt's weren't trying to corner the market, the price never gets that high. They never intended to take delivery of the silver...they didn't want to use it...they were just driving the price up to cash out higher.
So the price NEVER goes to $50 except on bogus buying on margin.
The statements on COMEX are false....BRICS is just the Chinese CB buying.....Brazil and Russia have been net-sellers.....India has been buying double gold every 15 years since 1947.....debt levels in the U.S. are not the reason silver has gone up...."Middle fingers" is not a sound reason to buy something.
Yeah, there's an element of truth in a few of your points...but the rest are just hyperbole and click-bait nonsense. If you believe that U.S. banks are speculating in silver, I can't trust your credibility on more serious matters.
@rooksmith said:
What a crazy market. Higher silver prices sort of takes the fun out of collecting. Its like, why pay twice as much for >the same coins you could have bought a year ago?
I don't know if that's true, but the absolute price for gold and silver numismatics is definitely higher. :'(
COMEX and LBMA are losing control of prices. Demand/hoarding by Asians will now drive the market. Keep and eye on Shanghai prices.. Note that there is no futures market in the east.
@RedneckHB said:
The new regime wants to raise the Feds inflation target. Inflation is good for billionaires.
I managed $$$ for a few of them. Inflation is no friend to them. Bond holdings alone get killed during inflation.
Only temporarily. They then reinvest those matured bonds at higher rates. And the value of equity and real estate holdings increase. Billionaires love inflation
@jmski52 said: Why would they realize losses if held to maturity? Hint...there is no capital loss if held to maturity.
Hint - in the intervening years, inflation ate up the purchasing power of those nominal gains...........and more.
Thats not an unrealized loss.
This is really a lame argument considering silver had lost (up until last week) its purchasing power. Since 2011 (cause you guys like to throw out dates) silver has underperformed bonds. $50 in April 2011 at 3% would be 79 today.
You're point was proven incorrect. Let's move on to the next one.
I didn't say that it was an unrealized loss. He did.
Jmski...Yes, with much less capital after the losses on their bond portfolio are realized. Sorry..i guess you said realized losses. Thats even more incorrect.
This is really a lame argument considering silver had lost (up until last week) its purchasing power.
Silver has done much better than stocks this millennium.
Dude, im just bringing up a date, like you guys do. You cant handle the truth?
You're point was proven incorrect.
Making a dumb statement like that doesn't make it so.
Nobody referenced the exact bonds in the discussion. If rates went up, the bonds realized a loss at maturity. You assumed that rates were lower. I can assume that they were higher. Doesn't matter. Bonds are losers now.
This is really a lame argument considering silver had lost (up until last week) its purchasing power.
What is your reference point? The peak in 2011? lol, cherrypicking as usual. Silver was also at $21.65 in Jan. 2011. Recalculate and get back to me on that.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said: Sorry..i guess you said realized losses.
Nobody referenced the exact bonds in the discussion. If rates went up, the bonds realized a loss at maturity. You assumed that rates were lower. I can assume that they were higher. Doesn't matter. Bonds are losers now.
Dude...for the 1 billionth time...there are no losses on bonds held to maturity.
This is really a lame argument considering silver had lost (up until last week) its purchasing power.
What is your reference point? The peak in 2011? lol, cherrypicking as usual. Silver was also at $21.65 in Jan. 2011. Recalculate and get back to me on that.
No....you guys like to cherrypick dates, so back at ya. Funny how your ilk dont like their own food.
Now back on topic....Will this thread be outdated by end of day tomorrow?
@jmski52 said:
If rates went up, the bonds realized a loss at maturity
you buy a 7 year $10,000 bond with a 4% "coupon" your birthday. if rates go down to 2%, in 7 years you get your $10,000 back plus the 4% interest payments. if rates go up to 10%, in 7 years you get your $10,000 back plus the 4% interest payments.
there are no realized losses.
you buy silver on your birthday for $18 on your birthday. seven years later you sell at $18.
there are no realized losses.
you want to talk about what happens to bonds in a rising or declining rates environment and then the loss of money you could have made? there's a phrase called "opportunity cost."
there was opportunity cost with that 7 year silver position: you would have made money in a rising or declining rate environment with that 7 year bond.
i see so many "what performed better over the same time period" arguments in all the bickering, that I'd think that opportunity cost would be well known to all
@derryb said:
COMEX and LBMA are losing control of prices.
Why do you say that ? They're not interested in controlling the price or even taking a position. The exchanges want to be middlemen and capture the volatility spread.
@derryb said:
COMEX and LBMA are losing control of prices.
Why do you say that ? They're not interested in controlling the price or even taking a position. The exchanges want to be middlemen and capture the volatility spread.
They're not betting their business on prices.
The bullion banks that trade and set prices there (JPM et. al.) are betting their business on spot prices. This is why they have a precious metals desk within their bank.
you want to talk about what happens to bonds in a rising or declining rates environment and then the loss of money you could have made? there's a phrase called "opportunity cost."
there was opportunity cost with that 7 year silver position: you would have made money in a rising or declining rate environment with that 7 year bond.
Cool, now we're gonna get a discourse on opportunity cost. Here's your big opportunity - go buy some bonds.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said: you want to talk about what happens to bonds in a rising or declining rates environment and then the loss of money you could have made? there's a phrase called "opportunity cost."
there was opportunity cost with that 7 year silver position: you would have made money in a rising or declining rate environment with that 7 year bond.
Cool, now we're gonna get a discourse on opportunity cost. Here's your big opportunity - go buy some bonds.
Bonds are outperforming silver today. Great call!!
@jmski52 said: Bonds are outperforming silver today. Great call!!
You're welcome! Are you putting your customers into more bonds today? Do you have any customers left?
Gundlach is running away from your 60/40 portfolio. Are your customers getting antsy?
Your imagination seems to be running overtime and i don't know about all that gibberish you just wrote, but personally I'll be buying a bond today with the funds from the silver I sold on Friday.
@jmski52 said: .there are no losses on bonds held to maturity.
...........except for loss of purchasing power in a rising rate environment..........
FIFY
There is still no capital loss on a bond held to maturity. Let it rest already.
Depends on your accounting and price paid when bought, not so simple. If you fail to amortize the premium paid upon a bond purchase and hold to maturity I believe you are subject to a capital loss. Say current interest rates are 4%, and a bond issued 2 years ago has a stated 8% rate. You buy and pay 105% of the principal for the extra interest. You should amortize that premium paid annually to reduce the interest received over the life of bond. If not, then when you receive 100% at maturity, you lost 5% of the principal.
If you believe that U.S. banks are speculating in silver, I can't trust your credibility on more serious matters.
Why does JPM, Goldman Sachs, UBS, HSBC and Citibank each have a significant precious metals desk. The Justice Dept fined JPM over $900 million for spooking the market which proves they do in fact speculate in precious metals.
If you believe that U.S. banks are speculating in silver, I can't trust your credibility on more serious matters.
Why does JPM, Goldman Sachs, UBS, HSBC and Citibank each have a significant precious metals desk. The Justice Dept fined JPM over $900 million for spooking the market which proves they do in fact speculate in precious metals.
Agree. The below is from the CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission) Bank Participation reports that are filed with the CFTC. The Banks have to file these reports. Banks, US and Non-US, control over 60% of the silver futures trading. Their recent futures trading controls over 457,500,000 troy ozs. Interesting the recent report had US banks net long the firsts time in decades. But appears the net short was switched from US to Non-US Banks. Not sure if that is just JPM, BofA, Citi, etc moving positions from their US entity to European/Asian entities. Interesting. These are public reports and do agree with open interest numbers.
I can't post a PDF here....here's the summary of the report with my emphasized parts:
It's Never Different
Parabolic Advance in Precious Metals Likely Nearing a Peak
WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW: Precious metals have gone parabolic. There is no other way to put it. While there may be solid fundamental reasons for these moves, and we have heard 'it's different this time', at some point the current price reflects all of that good news. Parabolas only end one way, with an equal and opposite downside reaction. They do not correct through time. While we have called several tactical tops in metals this year with various success, in hindsight just sticking with the structural uptrend was the easier play. With that said, the moves we have witnessed over the last few weeks are historic, and suggest we are in a final blowoff stage.For those that have enjoyed the run we would certainly take some precautions. Forthose looking for tactical trades, we think there will be significant downside from current levels over the coming weeks. As far as the equity market goes, we will have more to say in the coming days but overall we don't see any fat pitches right now. We continue to think sentiment is complacent which leaves stocks vulnerable heading into January, but until we see some actual sell pressure it's hard to act on sentiment alone.
■ Silver - It's Never Different. Silver is ~89% above its 200 DMA. Outside of the 'Hunt Brothers' squeeze in 1979, every time Silver has been 60% above its 200 DMA it has been meaningfully lower 20, 30 and 40 days later. While the fundamental story might be different this time, the 174% YTD gain has likely priced in much of that good news.
■ The average 40-day return following such a spread is -12%, and -23% excluding 1979. Yes in 1979 it did go more than 200% above its 200 DMA. However, from its peak in January 1980 to May 1980, it fell -78%. In other words,the more extreme the upside is in a parabolic move, the more extreme the equal and opposite reaction is.
■ Even a pullback to the 20 DMA (normal, healthy) would represent a -20% decline. We suspect a pullback to the 50 DMA (55.40) is highly likely in the coming 1-2 months. That would represent a -25-30% pullback depending on the timing.
■ Historic ETF Volume. Friday the SLV traded $9.6bn in notional dollar volume. That is the second-highest in its history behind May 2011, just after the final peak. That is clear evidence of a blowoff.
■ A Rare 10% Daily Gain. Silver was up over 10% on Friday, one of the largest single day gains ever. The last time it gained 10% into a multi-month high was in 1987. It marked the peak and fell -25% over the next few weeks.
■ Largest Weekly Gain in 45yrs. 18% gain last week, the largest one week gain in 45- years. The four weeks prior saw gains of +12.95%, +3.26%, +6.2%, +8.39%. There have only been three down weeks since mid-August. That is a parabolic advance.
■ Miners Lagging Materially. Ratio ofsilver minersto the metal peaked in September. In 2010 and 2020, the ratio peaked ahead of the metal itself by several months. Yet another warning sign the advance is mature.
■ Monthly RSI 91, only higher into the final peak of the Hunt Brothers squeeze.
■ Platinum Historic Run. The 10-day rate-of-change is 44%. The prior record was 23% coming out of Covid. It's 70% above its 200 DMA, the widest spread on record. Nothing comes close to the run we have just seen.
@derryb said:
Why does JPM, Goldman Sachs, UBS, HSBC and Citibank each have a significant precious metals desk. The Justice >Dept fined JPM over $900 million for spooking the market which proves they do in fact speculate in precious metals.
No they don't and no it doesn't prove it. If they did, they'd be shut down by the Fed or the OCC since you can't speculate with your Tier 1 capital except under the most stringent of regulations.
Why do those banks have precious metals desks ?
Why do they have Art Departments....why do they have Private Banks with conceriege services....why did we have a sports/entertainment division to handle concerts, sporting events, the Super Bowl, etc. ?
Because the clients want it and the bank provides the service.
P.S. We didn't suppress the price of Super Bowl tickets, in case anybody here is wondering.
Comments
Many of these points are conspiratorial fantasies that have been debunked by another post/link....the mining executives...etc. It's on par with 9/11 and JFK baloney.
Perhaps elsewhere but certainly not here in The Commonwealth. Inflation appears worse than ever, sad times for many. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Retiring at 55, what day is today?
Many of these points are conspiratorial fantasies that have been debunked by another post/link....the mining executives...etc. It's on par with 9/11 and JFK baloney.
Many of these points are conspiratorial fantasies.........................lol, seriously are you 100% brainwashed or just hallucinating on some strong mushrooms?
Name one of the above that's not been happening.
I knew it would happen.
.
Nothing at all wrong with having your precious metals in the form of valuable collector coins so that you can enjoy them.
That is a benefit that a paper derivative will never have.
.
The new regime wants to raise the Feds inflation target. Inflation is good for billionaires.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
What a crazy market. Higher silver prices sort of takes the fun out of collecting. Its like, why pay twice as much for the same coins you could have bought a year ago?
But this time around, supposedly its industrial demand that is the dominant force, not just speculative froth.
I dont know what coin dealers are doing, but at some point they're going to run out of cash to buy more stock. Big banks and short interests can borrow and play the market on options.
https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/video/the-silver-awakening-why-silver-prices-are-soaring-and-whats-next/
So I asked Copilot how the rising silver prices will affect the rare coin market:
https://copilot.microsoft.com/shares/pwEFa3N2AQX8W9NxdYY7g
Even if the rise in margin during the Hunt episode caused the drop in silver.....the fact that it took 30 years to get back there shows you the price was not real. If the margin requirements weren't so low, and if the Hunt's weren't trying to corner the market, the price never gets that high. They never intended to take delivery of the silver...they didn't want to use it...they were just driving the price up to cash out higher.
So the price NEVER goes to $50 except on bogus buying on margin.
The statements on COMEX are false....BRICS is just the Chinese CB buying.....Brazil and Russia have been net-sellers.....India has been buying double gold every 15 years since 1947.....debt levels in the U.S. are not the reason silver has gone up...."Middle fingers" is not a sound reason to buy something.
Yeah, there's an element of truth in a few of your points...but the rest are just hyperbole and click-bait nonsense. If you believe that U.S. banks are speculating in silver, I can't trust your credibility on more serious matters.
I don't know if that's true, but the absolute price for gold and silver numismatics is definitely higher. :'(
I managed $$$ for a few of them. Inflation is no friend to them. Bond holdings alone get killed during inflation.
COMEX and LBMA are losing control of prices. Demand/hoarding by Asians will now drive the market. Keep and eye on Shanghai prices.. Note that there is no futures market in the east.
Velocity, Not Valuation Defines A Bubble.
Only temporarily. They then reinvest those matured bonds at higher rates. And the value of equity and real estate holdings increase. Billionaires love inflation
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
They then reinvest those matured bonds at higher rates.
Yes, with much less capital after the losses on their bond portfolio are realized. It's a two-edged sword.
I knew it would happen.
Why would they realize losses if held to maturity? Hint...there is no capital loss if held to maturity.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Why would they realize losses if held to maturity? Hint...there is no capital loss if held to maturity.
Hint - in the intervening years, inflation ate up the purchasing power of those nominal gains...........and more.
I knew it would happen.
barring bankruptcy or some financial "restructuring", the principal of a single bond gets repaid in full. there aren't losses
banks complaining of treasury losses are taking a hit on a forced sale. or they are having to cover mark-to-market (not a loss) up until they sell
The banking welfare provisions on mark-to-market valuation don't help anyone who bought bonds and then lost purchasing power due to inflation.
I knew it would happen.
Thats not an unrealized loss.
This is really a lame argument considering silver had lost (up until last week) its purchasing power. Since 2011 (cause you guys like to throw out dates) silver has underperformed bonds. $50 in April 2011 at 3% would be 79 today.
You're point was proven incorrect. Let's move on to the next one.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Thats not an unrealized loss.
I didn't say that it was an unrealized loss. He did.
This is really a lame argument considering silver had lost (up until last week) its purchasing power.
Silver has done much better than stocks this millennium.
You're point was proven incorrect.
Making a dumb statement like that doesn't make it so.
I knew it would happen.
Jmski...Yes, with much less capital after the losses on their bond portfolio are realized. Sorry..i guess you said realized losses. Thats even more incorrect.
Dude, im just bringing up a date, like you guys do. You cant handle the truth?
⁸
Arguing against fact is a dumb statement.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Sorry..i guess you said realized losses.
Nobody referenced the exact bonds in the discussion. If rates went up, the bonds realized a loss at maturity. You assumed that rates were lower. I can assume that they were higher. Doesn't matter. Bonds are losers now.
This is really a lame argument considering silver had lost (up until last week) its purchasing power.
What is your reference point? The peak in 2011? lol, cherrypicking as usual. Silver was also at $21.65 in Jan. 2011. Recalculate and get back to me on that.
I knew it would happen.
Dude...for the 1 billionth time...there are no losses on bonds held to maturity.
No....you guys like to cherrypick dates, so back at ya. Funny how your ilk dont like their own food.
Now back on topic....Will this thread be outdated by end of day tomorrow?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
.there are no losses on bonds held to maturity.
...........except for loss of purchasing power in a rising rate environment..........
FIFY
I knew it would happen.
Dude...this is your quote Yes, with much less capital after the losses on their bond portfolio are realized
You were clearly not discussing inflation. But now after being proven wrong you try a non-sequitur.
There is still no capital loss on a bond held to maturity. Let it rest already.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Accounting doesn't negate the loss of purchasing power. Give it up, bonds are losers now.
I knew it would happen.
you buy a 7 year $10,000 bond with a 4% "coupon" your birthday. if rates go down to 2%, in 7 years you get your $10,000 back plus the 4% interest payments. if rates go up to 10%, in 7 years you get your $10,000 back plus the 4% interest payments.
there are no realized losses.
you buy silver on your birthday for $18 on your birthday. seven years later you sell at $18.
there are no realized losses.
you want to talk about what happens to bonds in a rising or declining rates environment and then the loss of money you could have made? there's a phrase called "opportunity cost."
there was opportunity cost with that 7 year silver position: you would have made money in a rising or declining rate environment with that 7 year bond.
i see so many "what performed better over the same time period" arguments in all the bickering, that I'd think that opportunity cost would be well known to all
Why do you say that ? They're not interested in controlling the price or even taking a position. The exchanges want to be middlemen and capture the volatility spread.
They're not betting their business on prices.
The bullion banks that trade and set prices there (JPM et. al.) are betting their business on spot prices. This is why they have a precious metals desk within their bank.
Velocity, Not Valuation Defines A Bubble.
you want to talk about what happens to bonds in a rising or declining rates environment and then the loss of money you could have made? there's a phrase called "opportunity cost."
there was opportunity cost with that 7 year silver position: you would have made money in a rising or declining rate environment with that 7 year bond.
Cool, now we're gonna get a discourse on opportunity cost. Here's your big opportunity - go buy some bonds.
I knew it would happen.
twas but an example
now we are arguing over realizing a loss on a bond held to maturity?
Bonds are outperforming silver today. Great call!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Bonds are outperforming silver today. Great call!!
You're welcome! Are you putting your customers into more bonds today? Do you have any customers left?
Gundlach is running away from your 60/40 portfolio. Are your customers getting antsy?
I knew it would happen.
Your imagination seems to be running overtime and i don't know about all that gibberish you just wrote, but personally I'll be buying a bond today with the funds from the silver I sold on Friday.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Depends on your accounting and price paid when bought, not so simple. If you fail to amortize the premium paid upon a bond purchase and hold to maturity I believe you are subject to a capital loss. Say current interest rates are 4%, and a bond issued 2 years ago has a stated 8% rate. You buy and pay 105% of the principal for the extra interest. You should amortize that premium paid annually to reduce the interest received over the life of bond. If not, then when you receive 100% at maturity, you lost 5% of the principal.
What term of bond did you buy? 30 year? 10 year?
I knew it would happen.
Why does JPM, Goldman Sachs, UBS, HSBC and Citibank each have a significant precious metals desk. The Justice Dept fined JPM over $900 million for spooking the market which proves they do in fact speculate in precious metals.
Velocity, Not Valuation Defines A Bubble.
Agree. The below is from the CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission) Bank Participation reports that are filed with the CFTC. The Banks have to file these reports. Banks, US and Non-US, control over 60% of the silver futures trading. Their recent futures trading controls over 457,500,000 troy ozs. Interesting the recent report had US banks net long the firsts time in decades. But appears the net short was switched from US to Non-US Banks. Not sure if that is just JPM, BofA, Citi, etc moving positions from their US entity to European/Asian entities. Interesting. These are public reports and do agree with open interest numbers.
that's it. just google it: "CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission) Bank Participation report"
conspiracy:: to suppress silver. plan: short silver
do you think they were successful? this reads like what retail would do.
love to know why there are two lines for non-us
The bottom line is just the totals. Wish they would name the 5 US banks and 17 Non-US.
or is it 39?
The banks participating in Dec 2025 were 22.
oh. d'oh duh
2 weeks. Priced to yield 8.39%.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
BTIG saying all the classic "blow-off" signals are present in the recent action. They expect prices to fall and then some.
I can't post a PDF here....here's the summary of the report with my emphasized parts:
It's Never Different
Parabolic Advance in Precious Metals Likely Nearing a Peak
WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW: Precious metals have gone parabolic. There is no other way to put it. While there may be solid fundamental reasons for these moves, and we have heard 'it's different this time', at some point the current price reflects all of that good news. Parabolas only end one way, with an equal and opposite downside reaction. They do not correct through time. While we have called several tactical tops in metals this year with various success, in hindsight just sticking with the structural uptrend was the easier play. With that said, the moves we have witnessed over the last few weeks are historic, and suggest we are in a final blowoff stage.For those that have enjoyed the run we would certainly take some precautions. Forthose looking for tactical trades, we think there will be significant downside from current levels over the coming weeks. As far as the equity market goes, we will have more to say in the coming days but overall we don't see any fat pitches right now. We continue to think sentiment is complacent which leaves stocks vulnerable heading into January, but until we see some actual sell pressure it's hard to act on sentiment alone.
■ Silver - It's Never Different. Silver is ~89% above its 200 DMA. Outside of the 'Hunt Brothers' squeeze in 1979, every time Silver has been 60% above its 200 DMA it has been meaningfully lower 20, 30 and 40 days later. While the fundamental story might be different this time, the 174% YTD gain has likely priced in much of that good news.
■ The average 40-day return following such a spread is -12%, and -23% excluding 1979. Yes in 1979 it did go more than 200% above its 200 DMA. However, from its peak in January 1980 to May 1980, it fell -78%. In other words,the more extreme the upside is in a parabolic move, the more extreme the equal and opposite reaction is.
■ Even a pullback to the 20 DMA (normal, healthy) would represent a -20% decline. We suspect a pullback to the 50 DMA (55.40) is highly likely in the coming 1-2 months. That would represent a -25-30% pullback depending on the timing.
■ Historic ETF Volume. Friday the SLV traded $9.6bn in notional dollar volume. That is the second-highest in its history behind May 2011, just after the final peak. That is clear evidence of a blowoff.
■ A Rare 10% Daily Gain. Silver was up over 10% on Friday, one of the largest single day gains ever. The last time it gained 10% into a multi-month high was in 1987. It marked the peak and fell -25% over the next few weeks.
■ Largest Weekly Gain in 45yrs. 18% gain last week, the largest one week gain in 45- years. The four weeks prior saw gains of +12.95%, +3.26%, +6.2%, +8.39%. There have only been three down weeks since mid-August. That is a parabolic advance.
■ Miners Lagging Materially. Ratio ofsilver minersto the metal peaked in September. In 2010 and 2020, the ratio peaked ahead of the metal itself by several months. Yet another warning sign the advance is mature.
■ Monthly RSI 91, only higher into the final peak of the Hunt Brothers squeeze.
■ Platinum Historic Run. The 10-day rate-of-change is 44%. The prior record was 23% coming out of Covid. It's 70% above its 200 DMA, the widest spread on record. Nothing comes close to the run we have just seen.
No they don't and no it doesn't prove it. If they did, they'd be shut down by the Fed or the OCC since you can't speculate with your Tier 1 capital except under the most stringent of regulations.
Why do those banks have precious metals desks ?
Why do they have Art Departments....why do they have Private Banks with conceriege services....why did we have a sports/entertainment division to handle concerts, sporting events, the Super Bowl, etc. ?
Because the clients want it and the bank provides the service.
P.S. We didn't suppress the price of Super Bowl tickets, in case anybody here is wondering.
pdfs can be attached files, but i don't open attached files