There is lots of Macro Economic data I could reference that shows that the economy is slowing (GDP, Job numbers). Liquidity- money supply has not increased since around 2023. RE trending down.
If you guys are going to tie these sales to ‘The Economy’ please at least understand what the data is telling us. Spoiler - there is no Macro case to support this card 2x in 15 days.
Cost of borrowing will get cheaper today not because the economy is roaring, quite the opposite.
Matty is right, easiest con in the game, even seasoned collectors fall for it. Look at all the folks trying to justify what very clearly makes no sense.
Card early 2021 is selling for 10k. A BIN gets hit for 20k. A couple more sales peaks at 30k.
I am sure this board would have though the card was undervalued, the economy was ripping and these sales were legit.
That card trades for close to 10k today.
I could show you guys 50 examples like this. All the data is available if you are at all curious, and the playbook is always the same. Crazy outlier placement sale, a few supporting sales, FOMO, and eventually a slow melt.
@80sOPC said:
Ok at least a few of you get what I’m saying.
There is lots of Macro Economic data I could reference that shows that the economy is slowing (GDP, Job numbers). Liquidity- money supply has not increased since around 2023. RE trending down.
If you guys are going to tie these sales to ‘The Economy’ please at least understand what the data is telling us. Spoiler - there is no Macro case to support this card 2x in 15 days.
Cost of borrowing will get cheaper today not because the economy is roaring, quite the opposite.
Matty is right, easiest con in the game, even seasoned collectors fall for it. Look at all the folks trying to justify what very clearly makes no sense.
I think it's easy to understand why people with money, especially those who are in, or nearing, retirement where their primary source of income is an investment portfolio, would think that the economy is great and that it's booming and will continue to do so. Fun fact: There's never been an economy which did not collapse with a Gini coefficient has high as the United States has. Will we survive? We would be the first major economy the world has ever seen to do so! That's the real economic data.
I'm not saying it is or it isn't, but it's an easy assumption to jump to. If it looks like a duck... It's most likely a duck so be on the lookout for ducks. Don't assume everything is a duck. It's probably a duck. But who cares unless you're in the business of needing to predict if something is or isn't a duck. Know what I mean?
I think it gets very interesting to look at our Tony Gwynn situation from the angle of the economy, the stock market, parts of the stock market, the card market, parts of the card market and The Average Joe, which are all different things and one can do well while another does not. And it all can change kind of quickly. Today we get the news that we get the rate cut and probably two more this year. The market on the whole, maybe the news was baked in a bit. But it means more to some companies than others. The Russell 2000 companies smaller and more likely to have debt than the Dow and S&P and now that debt is cheaper to maintain. Bigger win for them than Microsoft. Stocks that are more based on the consumer and cater to The Average Joe, like Chipotle and Target it makes sense that they are not winning, while the companies that service the hyperscalers like Meta Amazon Microsoft Oracle who want to spend 50 to 100B, they are doing well.
While the stock market, or parts of it, is not the economy, the card market is not the economy or the stock market either. I remember when PWCC was getting ramped up, Brent was pitching that point heavy and providing all those metrics to support it. In bad economic times high-end cards did well. Babe Ruth yes. 89 Donruss Curt Schilling maybe not so much. Which I think can be at play now. When the economy was going through rough times it wasn't The Average Joe buying Babe Ruth cards. That space can thrive while the Average Joe is suffering because that money is less impacted in a rough economy. If I try to sell a card that has gone for $35, maybe this time I just get $28.
What I find interesting about the card market is when things felt dire and miserable in February and March I was trying to get out of the stock market and invest in high-end cards instead. Well, so was everybody else. Stuff got real expensive at that time and maybe you could call it reallocating. It was tough to get a nice card from the major auction houses at good value. Then the stock market dramatically improved and cards started to really take off. So for real nice cards, felt like a win win whether the stock market or general outlook on the economy was positive or not.
The Tony Gwynn PSA 10 is not Average Joe territory. Its not Babe Ruth territory but its high-end. So whatever this was, market manipulation or an overenthusiastic overcaffeinated individual with means, the card market is very strong and I dont see it letting up anytime soon.
While I was typing this I got a call from eBay about an issue with a card going through authentication. They apologized for taking so long to reach out to me and said they were swamped. To me, that kind of reinforces the point. The authentication space is where the more high-end cards live and they are more busy authenticating than usual.
Comments
83 tony gwynn cello pack just sold for big $$$
https://www.ebay.com/itm/406207959832
Good grief, $6750!
Ok at least a few of you get what I’m saying.
There is lots of Macro Economic data I could reference that shows that the economy is slowing (GDP, Job numbers). Liquidity- money supply has not increased since around 2023. RE trending down.
If you guys are going to tie these sales to ‘The Economy’ please at least understand what the data is telling us. Spoiler - there is no Macro case to support this card 2x in 15 days.
Cost of borrowing will get cheaper today not because the economy is roaring, quite the opposite.
Matty is right, easiest con in the game, even seasoned collectors fall for it. Look at all the folks trying to justify what very clearly makes no sense.
Take a look at the history on 63 Rose PSA 8 to see how this scam plays out.
https://www.psacard.com/auctionprices/baseball-cards/1963-topps/1963-rookie-stars/184617?g=8&page=2
Card early 2021 is selling for 10k. A BIN gets hit for 20k. A couple more sales peaks at 30k.
I am sure this board would have though the card was undervalued, the economy was ripping and these sales were legit.
That card trades for close to 10k today.
I could show you guys 50 examples like this. All the data is available if you are at all curious, and the playbook is always the same. Crazy outlier placement sale, a few supporting sales, FOMO, and eventually a slow melt.
I think it's easy to understand why people with money, especially those who are in, or nearing, retirement where their primary source of income is an investment portfolio, would think that the economy is great and that it's booming and will continue to do so. Fun fact: There's never been an economy which did not collapse with a Gini coefficient has high as the United States has. Will we survive? We would be the first major economy the world has ever seen to do so! That's the real economic data.
I'm not saying it is or it isn't, but it's an easy assumption to jump to. If it looks like a duck... It's most likely a duck so be on the lookout for ducks. Don't assume everything is a duck. It's probably a duck. But who cares unless you're in the business of needing to predict if something is or isn't a duck. Know what I mean?
I think it gets very interesting to look at our Tony Gwynn situation from the angle of the economy, the stock market, parts of the stock market, the card market, parts of the card market and The Average Joe, which are all different things and one can do well while another does not. And it all can change kind of quickly. Today we get the news that we get the rate cut and probably two more this year. The market on the whole, maybe the news was baked in a bit. But it means more to some companies than others. The Russell 2000 companies smaller and more likely to have debt than the Dow and S&P and now that debt is cheaper to maintain. Bigger win for them than Microsoft. Stocks that are more based on the consumer and cater to The Average Joe, like Chipotle and Target it makes sense that they are not winning, while the companies that service the hyperscalers like Meta Amazon Microsoft Oracle who want to spend 50 to 100B, they are doing well.
While the stock market, or parts of it, is not the economy, the card market is not the economy or the stock market either. I remember when PWCC was getting ramped up, Brent was pitching that point heavy and providing all those metrics to support it. In bad economic times high-end cards did well. Babe Ruth yes. 89 Donruss Curt Schilling maybe not so much. Which I think can be at play now. When the economy was going through rough times it wasn't The Average Joe buying Babe Ruth cards. That space can thrive while the Average Joe is suffering because that money is less impacted in a rough economy. If I try to sell a card that has gone for $35, maybe this time I just get $28.
What I find interesting about the card market is when things felt dire and miserable in February and March I was trying to get out of the stock market and invest in high-end cards instead. Well, so was everybody else. Stuff got real expensive at that time and maybe you could call it reallocating. It was tough to get a nice card from the major auction houses at good value. Then the stock market dramatically improved and cards started to really take off. So for real nice cards, felt like a win win whether the stock market or general outlook on the economy was positive or not.
The Tony Gwynn PSA 10 is not Average Joe territory. Its not Babe Ruth territory but its high-end. So whatever this was, market manipulation or an overenthusiastic overcaffeinated individual with means, the card market is very strong and I dont see it letting up anytime soon.
While I was typing this I got a call from eBay about an issue with a card going through authentication. They apologized for taking so long to reach out to me and said they were swamped. To me, that kind of reinforces the point. The authentication space is where the more high-end cards live and they are more busy authenticating than usual.