Survival rate for half dollars
ericvin
Posts: 1 ✭
It has always fascinated me to read various pronouncements regarding survival rates for various coin types or series. How were these numbers or percentages arrived at? Were they reliable? Were they just wild guesses or was some method used to arrive a given figure? Not knowing the answers, I set out to devise a method and seek an answer for what I know best- 1805 halves. Breaking it down by die marriage seems to be the best way to proceed.
O.101 is rated R3 in Overton. Any rarity rating that differs from what listed in Overton is either the latest opinion of the BHNC or is my own opinion based on my research and will be disclosed as such. I'll use the middle of this rating as this die pairing is fairly common. If anyone feels that 'common' and 1805 half dollar don't go well together, substitute the word 'available'. Steve Herrman's "Auction and Mail Bid Prices Realized" shows 46 appearances of O.101s at major auctions and FPLs of certain dealers since 1998 with only 1 glaring repeat sale, that of the Eliasberg specimen. R3 can be interpreted as 201-500 specimens extant so the middle point is 350.
O.102- Herrman's AMBPR shows 58 specimens with no attempt made to weed out repeat appearances. This marriage is also rated at R3 so the same number will be included, 350.
O.103 is rated R5+ by the BHNC with a range of 31-47. This coincides well with the research of Bryce Brown (forum member Preturb), which was piblished in a recent edition of the John Reich Journal. AMBPR lists about 20 examples but I'll include 45 for this purpose.
O.104 is rated R5- by the BHNC with a range of 66-80. AMBPR shows 34 appearances. 70 is a nice round number within the range.
O.105 is rated R5 (48-65) with 12 specimens listed in AMBPR. I'll include 50.
O.106 is rated R3+ by the BHNC but with only 11 specimens appearing over the last 5 years, I think it is much scarcer. Much. For this purpose 55 specimens will do. This brings the count of likely numbers of 1805 halves to 920.
O.107 is rated R5 by the BHNC with a range of 48-65. My own opinion is that there are probably about 50 specimens of this die marriage.
O.108 is rated R4+ by the BHNC so let's take a mid range number of 100.
O.109 is rated R4- by the BHNC with a range of 120-200. Let's use 160.
O.110 is rated R5 and a middle range # would be 55.
O.111 is very common and rated R2. The range for R2 is 501-1000. Midway thru would be 750.
O.112 is equally common at R2 and 750 will also work here.
O.113 is rated R4+ by the BHNC (81-120) so 100 will be used here.
O.114 is only known by 2 examples and we'll count both of them.
This gives us a total of 2887 1805 half dollars surviving. With an original mintage of 211,722 this means the survival rate is 1.36%, within the 1-2% often quoted. If the numbers of any one die marriage seem too high, re-figure it with 2500 survivors for a 1.18 survival rate. Or re-figure it with a survival rate of 4000 1805 halves for a 1.89% survival rate. However many 1805s you feel are left, it is unlikely to exceed 2%.
The flip side means that at least 98% have been lost, worn beyond recognition, melted, WHY. If you apply that 2% rate to each die marriage, the number of originally minted specimens is likely to be as follows-
O.101- 350/2=x/100 or an original mintage of 17,500
O.102 17500
O.103 2250
O.104 3500
O.105 2500
O.106 2750
O.107 2500
O.108 5000
O.109 8000
O.110 2750
O.111 37500
O.112 37500
O.113 5000
O.114 50
Adding these numbers back up only comes to 144,300 because earlier numbers only reached 1.36% survival vs. 2% for figuring ~total # struck for each die marriage. This chart shows that the mint was getting very low production from most dies; so low that John Reich and Robert Scot realized that some major changes in how dies were engineered would need to be made in order to accomodate increased deposits of silver into U.S. coinage. However, some dies were retired with no apparent failure. The obverse die used for O.105 and O.106 was in good enough shape that it was over dated and reused early in 1806; also the reverse die used for O.106 didn't appear to fail. Others also should have survived in decent enough shape but weren't used that year. Perhaps when all silver on hand was coined, certain dies weren't properly stored and subsequently rusted. Whatever the reason is lost to us. However, Reich and Scot solved at least some of the problems as die life was greatly extended later in 1806 and 1807. We know this because the artifacts catastrophic failures observed on 1805 halves had essentially disappeared by mid 1806.
Comments
Best first post maybe ever.
Half dollars circulated somewhat (they did represent a lot of money), but they were also used for inter-bank settlement. Those might reside in a bag of $500 face for many years.
ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
I do think the year involved and other economic pressures can make a huge difference in the survival rates for different Half Dollars.
I am not familiar with the survival rate and or economic use of the Drape Bust Half but have no problem with your 1% to 2% rationale.
Cap. Bust Halves seem to have survived at a better rate. BStrauss's comment about banking use definitely applies to that series. Look at the certified population for many dates and you will find a number in the thousands. It is worth mentioning though that the Cap. Bust has both a large coin collector following and more often than not a basse value that encourages slabbing.
My area of interest is in Seated Halves. I believe you have to look at Seated Halves with a more narrow focus.
The Seated Halves minted prior to 1853 are far more likely to have suffered a quicker demise. Some of the mintage numbers seem quite large but the country at that time seemed to be suffering a perpetual coin shortage so they were more likely to be used up in commerce. The price flucuatuions in silver are self evident since the mint was forced to take measures to stop the incessant melting of coins issued. In short, the large population of extremely worn coins taken into account, leaves a very small pool of collectible coins. This is evident in the small certified populations.
The large number of Arrow & Ray coins that exist skewes the perception of Seated Halves. At times I think many people think they were the only Seated Halves ever minted.
The available population of collectible Seated Halves seems to increase with each passing year. I think the With Motto coins have vastly different suriving percentages than the No Motto coins.
Thank you for your post. Very interesting. James
One of the most informative and well-though out posts that I have ever read. You're obviously very experienced, but welcome to the forum, and thanks for your contributions!
God comes first in everything I do. I’m dedicated to serving Him with my whole life. Coin collecting is just a hobby—but even in that, I seek to honor Him. ✝️
I love it, great analysis!
"But seek ye first the kingdom of God and His righteousness and all these things shall be added unto you" Matthew 6:33. Young fellow suffering from Bust Half fever.
BHNC #AN-10
JRCS #1606
When did Draped Bust Halves stop circulating?
By 1853 I'm sure, but probably around 1840.
Glad to see my post makes more sense than I dared hope. Just after I started it my papillon Belle came to stand in my office doorway and use her CHI to make me take her for her noon walk.
I didn't mention how important certain periods and events in History must have effected the survival rates of various dates. The gold rush, War with Mexico, Civil War, Reconstruction, the Panic of 73 and others, just to name a few. James
May I respectfully suggest a tweak to the title of the thread? If you make it "Bust Half Dollars" or even "Draped Bust Half Dollars" you will b e more likely to reach the people you want to reach.
You can edit the title thread in the original posting by clicking on the cog wheel in the upper right.
There are coincidentally a few openings in the draped bust half collectors arena
BHNC #248 … 140 and counting.
Actually, you can thank Adam Eckfeldt for the die life improvement. Eckfeldt was appointed Die Forger and Turner in 1795. Mint records show he was also responsible for the hardening and tempering. He made several improvement in the die-making process. I've attached one of my articles which appeared in both PW and JRJ.
As to the improvement in half dollar die life between 1805 and 1806, as the photos of half dollar dies in the ANS collection below show, Eckfeldt switch the die form from a cylinder-on-cylinder design in 1805 to a frustum (truncated cone) on cylinder in 1806. Since a frustum is far more mechanically strong than a simple cylinder, this new design provided maximum resistance to fracturing.
The 1805 die was used on O-102 and the 1806 die was used on O-123 & 124. The smaller dies shown with the 1806 die are those for the infamous 1823 Restrike cent. The cent dies show the difference in form.
Concurrent with the form change, it is also probable that Eckfeldt altered both the forging, hardening, and tempering processes. Die life analysis shows he was constantly improving die life, eventually achieving over 300,000 strikes per die for both cents and half dollars.