Modern gold Eagle or St Gaudens?
cinque1543
Posts: 102 ✭✭
Just compared prices between these two gold coins:
- 2024 1oz American Eagle in PCGS MS70
- 1925 .9675oz $20 St Gaudens Double Eagle in PCGS MS63
Both are selling at the same premium. Between these two coins, which one would you choose for long-term holding and why?
3
Comments
Historically Saints in 63 and above have had a higher premium relative to AGEs. If things return to long term trends, you'd likely be better off with Saints.
Conversely if you want to be hugging the melt value for maximum liquidity just buy eagles and don't look back - they have some of the lowest premiums ever right now. When (if) premiums go up you can swap to Krugerrands and gain ounces. I did the Eagle to Krug swap during the last premium bull cycle and gained a good amount of ounces. Same theory holds for silver counterparts.
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Historically, the numismatic premium over melt value for common-date Saints has diminished as the spot price for gold increases.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Once spot stabilizes, it will revert. Gold eagles are unlimited, saints are limited. Greater upside in Saint premium over AGE premium. The question is A vs B, not A vs C.
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I'd buy the Saint but makes sure it's a solid 63. Some 63 Saints are pretty beat up with sub-par eye appeal. Other look like really Choice MS pieces. I enjoy classic gold more than modern.
I picked up this 1925 Saint last month for a very fair price ($2800). It's a nice 63 in an old ANACS holder. I apologize for my weak images & hair on reverse.
The Saint is .9675 gold whereas the AGE is a full ounce. Make sure to factor that in when calculating your premiums. If in fact the premiums are identical, I'd go with the Saint as it's been authenticated and in most market conditions can hold a slight numismatic premium. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
the age is authenticated too
saint, only if certified
Repetition of ignorance is ignorance raised to the power two.
You adjusted for the slightly more gold in the American Eagle, right ?
Ehh...sometimes yes, sometimes no. It really depends on how LONG gold has been increasing...or falling....or acting steady. Because you have dealers and speculators who will CHASE when gold moves up a bit banking on this being the Next Big Up Cycle like the 1970's or 2000's.
Premiums are super-low because gold appears flat in the mid-$2,500 range and really stuck below but not piercing the $2,800 range. So the already low premium has faded more in recent months.
I have this also for MS-65:
I'd get the (nice) Saint....even if you pay a bit more for the gold content, adjusting for the difference.
Premiums can also change based on holders....I had a 1915-S MS-63 OGH that I paid basically spot gold for at FUN 2020....so about a 3-4% premium to gold (accounting for the sub-1 ounce contained).....I sold it in late-2023 or early-2024 for a higher price (gold had moved up) but more importantly about a 15% premium to gold.
The 63 grade was suddenly "hot" even though premiums were still low....and the OGH was also "hot." Also, fewer 1915-S coins than the usual 1908 NMs, 1924s, etc.
nice chart. source?
Repetition of ignorance is ignorance raised to the power two.
I'll have to check....could have been a Working Draft for publication of a research piece, I'm not sure. Have one also for MS-65.
Buy the 100-year-old Saints in MS63 or better with gold at these new record highs while they still have very low premiums. Much better downside protection than modern eagles.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Why MS70 AGEs? I would make the choice between raw AGEs and MS62 Saints. Today's physical gold buyer doesn't care about numismatics.
MS 69 works, very little premium over raw. Buyers like the piece of mind that they have been certified authentic.
Repetition of ignorance is ignorance raised to the power two.
Saints in good slabs as Derryb stated. Clean ones, properly graded, not spotted unless CAC'd.
No one has mentioned the "confiscation" aspect which happened from 1933 to approx 1964. During that time gold ownership was very limited in the USA........but did allow for gold coins of rare and/or numismatic importance. So pre-1933 US gold gets my vote. Slabbed 63's/64 Saints 63/64 $20 Libs. I'd say the Libs are a better value even at the $30/$70 premium to saints as they are far scarcer. I'd actually pick clean 64's. And Proof 1986-2024 US Mint gold eagles are another good choice....both collectible....as scarce as MS 64 Saints....and approve for IRA's with the COA/orig packaging. The premiums on the proof AGE's will expand when gold comes back down for an extended period. And they are great looking coins.
Ideally, make your choices a "collection" of either type coins, different dates/mints, etc. Collections of pre-1933 US gold coins would stand the best chance of not being confiscated for digi-bucks down the road. If the govt ever needs more gold like they did in 1933 they'll take the modern Gold Eagles first. Numismatist, former ANA Governor, and attorney David Ganz has written articles on this. Even if the confiscation slant might have a "slim" chance of happening, why not take that route to be safe as there is no extra cost to doing that.
$20 St Gaudens Double Eagle
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Nice to see you rr. I hope that you decide to stay engaged around here.
Regarding confiscation, there's no way to know in advance what the politicians will do if (or when) a debt based liquidity freeze occurs. A credit freeze and locking up of the system is what everyone worries about, and rightly so. If society as a whole is faced with a complete collapse, there's no telling what gov.com would do to maintain their own status and control.
An emergency situation in the credit markets could precipitate a confiscation of all gold & silver if the government had actual plans to incorporate the metals into a new monetary system. They did something similar with "withfall profits" from oil investments in the 1980s. However, Reagan made it a point for US citizens to have a legal way to accumulate gold & silver in the form of gold & silver eagles as a practical way to deal with inflation that is in fact created by the government in the first place. In my humble opinion any confiscation at this point would be a complete betrayal of the people after 40 years of official legal gold ownership and investment that has been sponsored and promoted by the federal government.
Jim Sinclair always maintained that the first attempt to reform the monetary system would fail - if the government attempts a new system based on another round of paper promises & debt, I tend to agree with Sinclair, that it would fail to gain acceptance. Sinclair then went on to propose that the new system would be based on something physical, such as gold. This seems to be the trend in not only the IMF, but the BRICS as well. Even China has encouraged private gold investment by its citizens for the past 10-15 years.
The recent trends by several states to make gold & silver legal for transactions as currencies, the formation of state depositories, and the elimination of state taxes on gold & silver transactions are all a step in the right direction.
The question of Saints vs. gold Libertys vs. certified gold vs. "collectible gold" vs. regular gold eagles vs foreign gold coins has a lot of nuances. I remember some of David Ganz's articles from years ago. Has he written anything on confiscation recently?
I knew it would happen.
The confiscation of gold was a 1-time thing. It will never happen again, couldn't, not unless the government wanted to risk a financial panic.
I have a few myself... but isn't it better to sell when the premium is 5-10% and gold is at $3,000....than sell when the premium is 25% and gold is at $2,000 ? Obviously, a high gold price and a high premium is the best of both worlds.
I say buy what you like and consider the premium expansion -- IF it happens -- like a free "call option" on that style of gold.
I've posted graphs here showing MS-65 and MS-62 Saint premiums to gold, 2000-2020.
I have read his stuff...he's smart...but I think there's an element of fear-mongering with articles like his. They prey upon people who are less financially sophisticated and really think the government is going to seize their money or possessions. Or fear that the dollar is going to collapse which isn't the case.
Regarding a potential "gold confiscation", I do not think it will ever happen again, unless citizens are stripped of ALL their assets in some sort of government "panic".
Years of massive cheating on the gold standard came to a head in 1933. There were far more gold obligations than there was gold. Those gold obligations include:
1) US Liberty Loan bonds, redeemable in gold, were issued to pay for the United States participation in WW1.
2) US Treasury Gold Certificates, redeemable in gold coin, were placed into general circulation.
3) Federal Reserve Notes, redeemable in gold, were also placed into circulation in large quantities.
4) Corporate bonds, usually payable in gold upon maturity, were sold in large amounts.
In 1933, President Roosevelt admitted in a speech that: "we (the United States) have a reserve of gold and a small reserve of silver, neither of them anything like the total amount of the currency". When Roosevelt bailed out the gold shorts by confiscating gold in 1933, the United States Treasury held about 6,000 metric tons of gold. All of the gold coins, in total, ever minted by the United States amounted to around 3,500 metric tons. That was the backing for everything.
However the gold obligations of each of the four categories listed above amounted to (in metric tons):
1) US Liberty Loan bonds: 10,500 .
All of the gold in the United States, government, public, and private combined, was not enough to pay off the amount borrowed to pay for WW1.
2) US Treasury Gold Certificates issued: 16,000 .
3) Federal Reserve gold-clause notes issued: 54,000 .
4) Corporate bonds outstanding: 90,000 .
So there was an ENORMOUS amount of gold obligations that couldn't possibly be met. Here it all is in one ugly picture (gold assets on the left, gold obligations on the right):
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Today, government and corporate obligations are no longer denominated in gold. They are entitlements (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Pensions, etc). So if anything is gong to be "confiscated" (or severely curtailed), it will be these entitlements.
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The govt likes to pick winners and losers. I think history tells us that they will try to penalize the private or individual gold holders......the other citizens will demand it. Heck, they'll blame gold holders for ruining the system. You have to blame someone to get the outcome you want. They penalized hard asset collectors including gold and silver bullion ,and even gold and silver ETF's by giving them the highest allowable tax treatments via Schedule D's.
I'm not fear mongering with suggesting building a "collection" of $20's or other pre-1933 gold. If one is considering a gold purchase, then why not do it that way? It's not really any harder. Treat it like a collection. Be selective. Just don't buy it all in one large purchase via one dealer and call that a collection. Might not fly. Do I expect a financial panic in the years leading to 2033.....yup. The economic and financial systems will be turned upside down. What we saw in 2008/2009 was just a little blip....same for the March 2020 CoVid crash. The real one is still lurking out there and will be as noteworthy as 1929-1932 but in a digital world. Ending a 80-100 economic inflationary cycle doesn't wrap up with a whimper.
I've not kept up on the coin hobby world since CoVid. So I don't know if Ganz has written any further on the 1933 vs current conditions when it could come to gold confiscation. I'm sure he's written something.
While I don't think gold will be part of a new economic system in the 2030's, it might play a role. Bitcoins will get wiped out and removed in favor of the govt's own CBDC and crypto. No competitors allowed. And gold is one of those competitors. The gold confiscation was done in 1933 to readjust the price from $20 to $35/oz, and allow the govt to earn the 60% gain. The citizens who turned in gold got paper money in return. With less gold roaming in public, the move was a lot easier. Still, each citizen was allowed to keep up to $100 in total gold coins....and those who were maintaining a "collection" of rare and unusual gold coins, were allowed to keep it all. Bass and Eliasberg were 2 examples. Oddly, when it came to light, the govt's own definition of "rare and unusual" ended up being ANY pre-1933 US gold coin.....so not so "rare" after all....lol. In essence the entire country could have become gold coin collectors like Bass and Eliasberg and not have had to turn any gold coins in. But that information was not widely circulated to the populace. But the threat of fines and jail time was widely reported and printed in the news media.