The Cheerios Dollar is perhaps he best almost affordable, modern sleeper / buyer coin.
dennis5151
Posts: 22 ✭✭✭
I have kept pretty quiet about my Cheerios Dollar collecting as I understand how quickly word can spread.
Having completed my Cheerios Dollar collection to the best currently available... a bold statement you should take with a grain of salt.... I submit the Cheerios Dollar is a true modern collector’s "sleeper" and a variety coin destined to be a "buyer", one that is purchased for an investment.
After 25 years, apparently most of the 5,500 originals have been lost to circulation damage. Less than 10% have been graded, perhaps only 5% considering crossovers. The first few graded coins sold at very high prices then prices dropped as expected. After stabilizing, the coins have kept increasing in price, pretty much with inflation.
Very few, perhaps less than ten circulated examples have been graded due to the quick wear of the fine details on the tailfeathers, which is the number one identifier of a circulated Cheerios Dollar.
Without the tell-tell tail details, a circulated coin will not be designated as a Cheerios Dollar. Further, inside this variety, are the 2000 Business Strikes, a few non-pattern, non-prototype coins thought to be used in the promotion to finish up the original order of 5,500. These are being designated as "Cheerios Promotion". While these currently sale for slightly less than the 1999 Prototypes, they are actually rarer, perhaps less than ten have been graded.
As of this date, only one Top pop MS69 has been graded. It auctioned for an official eye opening $27,600. This is twice the most recent MS68 listed prices.
Of course, there are still a lot of ungraded coins in the original packages so the top pop can fall at any time.
After a quarter century, I doubt there will ever be more than ten circulated coins graded. I doubt there will be more than ten 2000 Business Strike "Promotional" graded coins. Those are the real sleepers and buyer investment coins.
As previously claimed, and perhaps as a challenge to other collectors, I beleive I have the best current collection in any safe deposit box....
I have three circulated:
ANACS AU55, 5346834
ANACS AU55, 74554280
ANACS AU58, 74554281
Two promotional 2000 Business strikes
NGC MS65, 5893545-001
NGC MS66, 6353161-002
The top pop:
NGC MS69, 8163673-001
and 24 others, of which four are ungraded, still in the package. To finish off the collection, I have four unopened original 2000 Cheerios Promotion Boxes.
My wife will agree with most of you, i have way too much money tied up in this collection. A lesson in investing, buy high, sell higher. Quality and quanity counts.
I am out of time. I can post a few more pictures later.
Comments
You are the King of the Cheerios Dollars!
Not a criticism, just a thought...have you considered how much your collection and buying activity has influenced the market? If a strong buyer like yourself is removed from what is probably not a deep pool of buyers, how much will prices drop?
My main collection is a pretty thin market and it's a thought I have often.
That's a fantastic collection, no doubt about it.
Here are a few random thoughts...
Sacagawea dollars don't really circulate, at least not widely, so I'd expect that for many years to come there will be potential finds in the countless bags and rolls that clutter bank vaults around the country.
What you refer to as "promotional business strikes" are non-pattern dollars that ended up in the cereal boxes, correct? In that case, they are a label rarity - only identifiable because of the slab label. I think they would ultimately be a harder sell than the actual pattern coins, since they are basically curiosities associated with the program.
And, as lermish suggested, you might well have been driving the market. Once you're out, there will be fewer Cheerios Dollar fanatics bidding prices up. I'm reminded of something I saw on Antiques Roadshow years ago. The value of Civil War swords, which had been strong for years, suddenly dropped significantly when one of the two main sword collectors in the US passed away.
I have a niche collection of banknotes and when they come up for auction I am always either the high bidder or the underbidder. Without me in the mix prices will drop.
If all else fails, at least you will be one of the only coin collectors who can eat part of their collection
I agree with all the above comments.
I seek label rarities as well as curiosities as I think they have value, perhaps more than others of equal quality. For example, I would rather have one MS68 from each grading company than five from only one company.
Prices will be driven by supply and demand. My thirty coins are off the market. That is greater than 10% of the graded coins. I am pretty sure my kids and grandkids will flood the market when I am gone. Until then, I can only hope these keep up with inflation.
The real question, at age 71, what do I collect from here? 1853 D Gold is appealing.
Looks like there is one up for auction on Heritage to add to the collection. The realized prices in that lot description seem to indicate a sizable drop in value over the past several years.
Thank God for collection obsessions! We are an odd bunch. If you're worried about value retention, I'd slowly unwind this and move onto something more intrinsically valued. Be ready to take your losses.
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
Have you run a metal detector over the unopened boxes?
I find the OP sort of confusing, leaving me not knowing how many coins of each the OP owns. These coins are like the "fingers and thumbs" of the coin world: all SAC Dollars in the packaging are Cheerios Dollars, but not all Cheerios Dollars are FS-902's. Also, I tend to agree with what has been hinted at about these types of low pop issues: hoarding them at the point of purchase tends to make them more expensive, when it comes to selling them they tend to become cheaper.
It is a nice, interesting assemblage of items related to the promotion.
The Cheerios pattern Sac $1 is a cool modern coin. But, there are now around 5 1/2 dozen MS68’s graded at PCGS, including (1) in 68+. There is also the NGC-MS69 coin in existence, which I haven’t seen. But, I can only assume the coin would also only cross to a PCGS-MS68 (and maybe MS68+ on a great day). I think that NGC coin realized under $28,000 at auction recently. Meanwhile, when this coin was just pop 5/0 in MS68 at PCGS, the coin fetched $29,900 at Heritage. They have lost the majority of their value from there as the coin moved up from pop 5 to pop 65 in MS68.
In my Top Modern Registry Set is a specimen that I believe was either the very first or second MS68 ever graded at PCGS (under the strictest standards). It is a fabulous quality coin. It hasn’t seen the light of day in the past 15 or 20 years I have owned the coin. I would be happy to have a “Showdown” at a future PCGS Event of the greatest Cheerios Dollars in existence and enter my coin. I’m confident it would “stack up” very nicely against the recently graded PCGS-MS68+ as well as the NGC-MS69.
What’s holding this coin back (when viewed as a future “sleeper”) is its original mintage and the actual number coins uncovered and in collector’s hands to date. The coin is having trouble working its way back to $10,000+ in the top PCGS numerical grade of MS68 with such a “high” relative mintage. By contrast, I recently bought at auction a very cool 20th Century pattern with an estimated mintage of about less than a dozen specimens for the same $10,000. I’ll personally take the mintage 10 or 12 coin over a mintage 500 or 1,000 or 5,500 (whatever one wants to assert for the Cheerios Dollar) - “apples to apples patterns”.
As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
I like the Cheerios $1's and believe they are under appreciated. I think of them as a distinct 1st year of issue type coin, rather than a prototype or pattern, with a mintage of up to 5500. Great history and a beautiful coin imho.
@wondercoin , does your "better pattern" have the same credentials? Please tell us about it.
My 1866 Philly Mint Set
@dennis5151 - Can I ask how and when you acquired them?
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
Nic. I think it has the “same credentials”. What do you think? Struck in RED PLASTIC and quite rare.
Wondercoin
Cool story and collection.
Once owned about 25% of an existing VAM population in Mint state. Sold them off at progressively cheaper prices.
I am working on a 7070 style collection of varieties, VAM's, etcc...
I enjoy the freedom TBH
BST: KindaNewish (3/21/21), WQuarterFreddie (3/30/21), Meltdown (4/6/21), DBSTrader2 (5/5/21) AKA- unclemonkey on Blow Out
I have been wanting one for a while, they are super cool. Maybe some day.
I have been tempted but I have not tried to xray or metal detect the boxes. It is still an unknown I can look forward to.
Are any of the Cherrios Dollars slabbed with the Eagle slabbed on the front of the slab?
Lafayette Grading Set
I started in 2010, mostly internet auctions, two from craigslist postings, and two regional coin shows. They were paid for by gambling in the stock market. My goal was two per year. Not counting the insane $26,700 for the top pop, my prices ranged from $1058 to $9000 for a NGC 68 which should be a MS70 PLUS PLUS. LOL
One thing for sure, all investments are a gamble. For risk comparison, I lost 100% on two stocks that went bankrupt, KMART and BANRO. These coins should always have at least a $1 (near worthless) USD value. Again.... LOL
Very nice collection @dennis5151
The prototype dollar is indeed a sleeper in my opinion. As noted in an earlier post, the stated mintage of 5500 doesn't help promote its rarity, although we are all quite sure it's nowhere near that total.
An interesting footnote is that there are still tons of circulating Sac dollars in Ecuador of all places! A good place to be searching for these
Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
"Coin collecting for outcasts..."
_This will cause some comments..... For less than the cost of gas to a coin show, you can get it regraded at PCGS or any other grader. Of course, you may be sorely dissapointed. I had a PCGS MS 67 PLUS crossed to an ANACS MS 67.
I once graded gemstones for a local rock club until I noticed my eyesight was fading and the grades were getting worse. I just could not see the sharpness of the points and the brillance was fading. Eye strain is a problem. Experience may also degrade or upgrade an item. Someday, AI will do it for us. Until then, it is subjective at best. Conspiracy at worst.
Did Ecuador get new rolls/bags, or recycled/mixed ones?
I think they got solid date new rolls, especially since they would not have wanted any SBAs.
In any case, they do circulate down there, and heavily, so those tail feathers would be on borrowed time.
Schrodinger's Cheerios?
Here's one you don't have.
In gold. Photo courtesy Coin World
I saw a photo mockup once of a piece never struck, W obverse and "FIVE DOLLARS" denomination reverse. I believe it was the proposed design for how they were going to sell these in gold to the public, struck of half ounce American Eagle gold planchets.
Since the US Mint is getting off on striking older designs in gold, I am a bit surprised they have not struck Sac dollars in gold of a "current" date....
I always wanted a true pattern-type Cheerios dollar coin but felt the prices just too high to justify.
Well, just Love coins, period.
Apparently they can do whatever the he(ck) they want now. So why not a 25th Anniversary 2025-W $5 gold Sacagawea???
TD
Thanks for that detailed feedback! I for one, have avoided putting the words coins and investment in the same sentence but I understand your point.
You say; lost to circulation damage. I'm not to sure about that. Like @JBK suggested; they don't circulate widely. You never (or at least I never), get them in change or see them in circulation. I order all my boxes. I've looked at thousands of Sacagawea's. You might be right but in my searching experience, I've seen very few tail-feathers that have been damaged beyond recognition. I do see many "apparently" coming back from central/south America heavily worn but the vast majority of those are D's not P's.
I know it's been discussed here many time before but where the heck are they all? (You are an exception to the Cheerios Dollar rule). A very small percentage of the 5,500 have been graded. If you're a collector or dealer and you have a raw Cheerios Dollar in your possession, you wouldn't get it graded??
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
Prominent US modern scarce (not rare) coin which is already very expensive.
Not a sleeper in my opinion.
This is my opinion too. It's unlikely that the majority of a low propensity to circulate coin of this age is lost where it won't be found and identified, eventually. From a financial standpoint, the more important question is when. I assume most exist, until presented with evidence to believe otherwise.
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Probably mostly where the majority of Sac dollars are now, in vault storage from what I have heard.
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A very small percentage of the 5,500 have been graded. If you're a collector or dealer and you have a raw Cheerios Dollar in your possession, you wouldn't get it graded??
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If owned by a collector, yes. But first, the potential owner has to be aware of the difference with the normal strike. It's a well-known coin to collectors, but there isn't any default reason to expect the public remembers the prior promotion which was almost a quarter century ago. Maybe they do, but I'd say they mostly do not. The public might have or did look for this coin for a few years during and after the promotion, but probably not often after that. To the non-collector, a Sac dollar is usually circulating change.
To someone who isn't a collector or doesn't know what to look for, the difference isn't readily apparent. Similar to the Paquet DE.
Yep, I would certainly agree with that.
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
Don't forget, it wasn't until five years after issuance that the pattern was identified. Presumably most of those found In cereal boxes were spent.
.... If you're a collector or dealer and you have a raw Cheerios Dollar in your possession, you wouldn't get it graded??
_I have no desire to sell them
Miss-quoting CaptHenwy from a very old post or conversation ...... "....unopened packages may eventually be worth more ,,," I am sure the quote is not exact but has the correct gist.
Also, this is a simple application of Schrodinger's cat, a paradox. in my mind, the coin is a MS70 PLUS .... until I have it graded. Same with the unopened boxes. Remember the axiom, "A legend in my own mind, a hero in my own time." In other words, individuals are quirky._
A comment on circulated Cheerios Dollars. The wear on the tail feathers is extreme.
See two pictures at the same high magnification. I used colorization to make the details stand out a bit better.
The upper one is an AU55, the lower AU58. You would have to carry a loupe to see the fine details.
If I had one, I could not admit it due to being too old to enjoy going to federal prision.
Maybe you can use your connections to get these minted as the 25th anniversary celebration, maybe General Mills will back you. I would prefer a full ounce $1 vice a half ounce $5.
I wonder if any of the fine detail West Point dies still exist. Perhaps a joint mission impossible, break in, steal the dies, go overseas..... After all, it is only an Army base, not like Annapolis which is guarded by Marines.
I would mortgage my house for a replica in pure gold.