Why are scarcer high numbers easier to find in PSA 8/9

chrisrenaud

I was just wondering as I was going through a lot of the graded cards that I have from the 70's for my sets, why are the supposedly scarcer higher number cards so much easier to find and acquire (I am thinking largely of 1970 which I collect a lot and also I think from 72). Did people save the high number cards, or throw away the low number cards, or have the low number cards just not been sent in to be graded. For 1970, for example, it seems every card over number 500 is pretty plentiful, but not the ones below 200.

Thanks for any thoughts

Chris

LloydsBaseballCards

My opinion would be that people graded them first because of their resale value.

FB

Chris,

I haven't figured out 1970 yet... But, for 72 I think what has happened is that there is a large disparity in the value of the commons from 1st to 6th series. Its only been 2 - 3 years or so where commons have really started to be graded for this set. For years, people have been grading the stars, then came the League Leader cards with HOFers and the next most "valuable" cards in the 72 set were the 6th series commons. Two years ago - it was tough to find ANYTHING BESIDES stars and high series commons from the 72 set on eBay.

I believe that the common theory is that since 1st series 72 commons sold for $.75 apiece and 6th series sold for $12.00 - that the graded cards would follow suit. But, it really hasn't worked out that way. Once they're in the plastic - there is really not much difference in value. That may not hold true forever - but it does hold true for now.

qualitycards

Chris - The reason why the scarcer high #'s seem more plentiful is simple. They are worth more and thus worth the grading and shipping fees to get them slabbed. Using your example of 1970, the PSA smr guide lists cards to #546 as $10.00 in a PSA-8, clearly not worth the expense of the fees to get a card that might sell for $7 to $15. But the high #'s after #634 now book for $22.00 in an "8". So for now its clearly economics. If supply and demand dictate that the lower #'s can consistently bring in $20 or more, the amount graded will increase too...jay

chrisrenaud

I was wondering if it was just a question of what people perceived to be value, or if there had been some high number finds in these sets. The question of perceived value, always a difficult thing to judge, seems somewhat ironic in these cases, as I definitely am willing to pay more for the low number cards today as they, at least from my own perspective, seem scarcer at least in graded form.

But I would be interested in hearing if people would advise waiting another year or so till these cards are graded - I had assumed that with the value in commons now, and the set registry specials, the low numbers would have caught up - but that does not seem to be the case.

chrisrenaud

Replying to the comment from qualitycards -

Thank you for this point, and I think to an extant it is logical, but people, including me, seem willing to pay $80 + for low number PSA 9's from 1970, yet there are still not a lot, even after the set grading specials - as such I thought there might be another reason relating to production or recent high number finds

waitilltheytrytosell

Most lower series cards are harder to find for two reasons. The cards came out by series back then. Low series cards came out in the beginning of the season and were handled and played around with the whole season. There was a ton of them made, but a large percentage of them were treated like baseball cards were supposed to be back then. The high series cards came out very late in the season and by then people lost interest in playing around with baseball cards, and maybe started in with the football cards. There were less high numbers made, but a higher percentage of them will be nice. The other reason is because of value. People are more likely to send in more valuable cards than less valuable ones. Many dealers don't want to buy and sell low value commons, while the higher value of the high numbers is more appealing. It's hard for many people to put $5 or $6 of grading fee into a $1 or $2 raw card. To them putting it into a more expensive high numbers is okay though. As prices increase for graded low numbered cards it becomes more worthwhile for people to send them in. Not just for collectors, but also for dealers.

brucemo

Waitil got it right. People send them in, and those that exist are often nicer.

I haven't handled that many complete sets, but of those that I've handled, several have had bad low series stuff, and great high-series stuff.

bruce

chrisrenaud

Thanks everyone for the comments - but they seem to raise a conundrum - people send in higher number cards to get graded because the book says they are more valuable, but there are acutally more cards from the hi series that can be graded - and the low number cards are supposedly cheaper but there are not cards to grade - so the hi number cards are not really scarce, at least in the sense of how graded cards seem to be valued (I do not want to start another thread here, however, on whether the price guides catch this)

seems to me that the laws of supply and demand are not totally working here

by the way, I am not looking to sell low number cards, I would like to buy more as it seems to be the big problem I have in building my sets, so I was hoping that maybe people knew of large numbers of low number commons that people might soon send in to be graded, because I do not have any, and the few raw sets that I have bought tend not to have good low number cards.

thanks again for your ideas

Vargha

To piggyback on what has already been said, first series cards also suffered the fate of being released in April when kids were still in school. Last series cards were issued in September when the kids had returned to school. Historically, there tended to be many years where those two series had lower sales. This is true, even though sets like the 1951 Bowman set that I collect don't have any price differential in SMR for the first 36 cards (Series 1). Nonetheless, the populations of high grade cards are lower and the prices realized on PSA 8 cards from that series reflect it. That also doesn't take into account the abuse that many card #1's suffered at the top of the rubber banded stack or at the front of the box.

jrinck

There are probably a greater number of unopened "high number" boxes and cases around because they didn't sell the first time around (for the reasons mentioned here). Those that weren't destroyed ended up in storage somewhere until being discovered in later years by astute collectors.

As such, once opened, the cards are as fresh as the day they were made, and the lure of 8's, 9's, and 10's send them off to PSA.

The lower number cards were probably handled more, and aren't in as good condition. But in terms of scarcity, just because the high number cards you find are collectively better than the low number cards, condition-wise, doesn't make them any less scarce.

waitilltheytrytosell

The only thing I would like to add is that now that a lot of people are running around buying 70's common cards to send to PSA, it makes more sense to only buy the cheapest series. Take 1972 for example. If you find a guy with a bunch of nice raw 1972's, let's assume he'll charge you around high Beckett for them. So, you are paying about $1.00 for the lows and $12.00 for the highs. When you get them back in PSA 8 holders, there really isn't a great difference in price. People buy what they need, and regardless about what any book says, they will pay about the same whether or not it's a high or low. The SMR has lows at $11 and highs at $16. So it would make one heck of a lot of sense to only buy the $1.00 cards, when you have to add your $5 or $6 grading fee. Of course if you need the highs you will buy the highs, but there is money to be made in buying any of the nice $1.00 ones. If you don't do it, somebody else will. The highs are harder to make money on so they will be left behind. Eventually there will be a lot of lows graded because of this, and maybe then the highs will be tougher again.