Why metals are retreating. . .
derryb
Posts: 36,809 ✭✭✭✭✭
The U.S. dollar's sharp 6.5% surge since early October is hammering PMs. Buy the dip, dollar reversal in the making.
The economic time bomb from the past four years will not be easily defused.
At best it will be restrained in its growth.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
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I think you meant the last 8 years and the next four.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I think you meant the last 8 years and the next four.
Crap. I find myself agreeing with coho.
I knew it would happen.
Nope. Dollar traded pretty much side ways Feb 2015-Feb 2020. The past four years that I referenced, it increased by 24.7%. There is no data on the next four years so I'll just leave that for your speculation.
A strengthening dollar in the face of rapidly growing debt is an economic time bomb. US debt increased by 34% in the four year period I referenced while increasing a total of only 45% over your past eight years. While there has been an economic time bomb since the FED began seriously kicking the can down the road in 2008, it's size and blast range has increased dramatically in the past four years. It would likely be a nuclear device by now if the FED hadn't temporarily covered Congress's A$$ (interest debt) by artificially lowering rates to near zero for an extended period. However, chickens always come home to roost unless they are slaughtered by a BRICS along the way.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
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The dollar has increased by nearly 25% since 2020? You might want to check your data.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Dollar index (DXY) had it's lowest point in 2020 on March 1st at 95.95. As of today (DXY at 106.58) that's only a 10% increase.
DXY reflects international ranking only and in no way does it reflect the dollar's purchasing power in the US. Inflation in the US has risen 21% since then meaning it has held only 80% of it's value.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The real mind warp for me is when spot gold and silver take big dives, the amount of gold and silver i sell goes up without me changing the price.
I've got an insane number of watchers on some items just in the last couple days. It's a really strange thing to experience.
I also bowed out of a lot of raw proof key date eagles this week because a lot of people seem to really really want them.
I love this.
I also bowed out of a lot of raw proof key date eagles this week because a lot of people seem to really really want them.
Which proof AGEs are you referring to? I've had conversations with dealers who told me that proof AGEs are highly-promoted about once a year and are pumped for inclusion into gold IRAs. Can you add any perspective?
I knew it would happen.
I'm not seeing a retraction on eBay.
I was tasked with picking up some silver and a 1/10 ounce gold eagle for the Christmas coin club raffle.
What silver I was bidding on was $55 last week is now $75.
My $300 budget for gold I had to bump up to $320 because I was getting out bid on everything.
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Maye you're just bidding on the wrong auctions?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
It doesn't appear that those auctions have ended, but there is plenty of bidding support. What are the prices for auctions that have actually ended?
I knew it would happen.
Those are sold, as shown.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
As mentioned in some previous threads, now that our country is headed in the right direction again, I think that PM's will not perform as well as other popular forms of investing. And could even perform negatively as has been happening lately.
So in my view, if you just have to have gold and silver, which is never a bad idea, obtain it in the form of coins. Whereby numismatic values should definitely rise during the coming years.
I thought economic catastrophes were GOOD for PM prices...now you say that is what is depressing their price ??
I said a strong dollar is currently dampening gold prices. I also said the economy has not been fixed (gov. debt/spending/inflation/interest rate uncertainty) and for that reason gold's long term future remains unchanged. Gold's continued growth rate depends on how fast the cause of a bad past four economic years can be reversed. Appears we are now taking a step in the right direction, but recovery is a long way off. Reversing the US's dependence on globalization and restoring it's production capacity is a great start.
The question at hand is will the new administration tell the truth about the economy or continue with the smoke and mirror data manipulations. One cannot put out a fire if one does not see the flames.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I did check the sold listings and I guess I should have specified what I was bidding on.
Not the random MS70 Silver Eagle.
Mostly 2016-W Edge Lettering and other West point minted Eagles if not burnished in MS70 or PF70.
Hahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahhahahhahaahhahahahhahahahahhahaha
Ha.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
GDP growth, unemployment rates and business bankruptcies were nearly the same in 2019 and 2023 and folks 401k balances were 25% higher in 2023. Which year was the bad one?
If you think 2023 was bad....well...you have my sympathies.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Again? When was before?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
A few months ago.
Oh, ok. I thought you were referring to 1861.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
We won't know about the direction of the new administration until we see the effects of some of its policies.
The backstabbing hasn't even begun in earnest yet. But it will.
I knew it would happen.
The Metals are rebounding today. Gold +$46, Silver +$0.83
Anybody know why?
I knew it would happen.
My guess would Ukraine issues and use of longer-range US missiles.
My guess would Ukraine issues and use of longer-range US missiles.
That's a distinct possibility, but irradiated gold & silver holdings won't be worth much if it happens. Hope for the best.
I knew it would happen.
Gold and silver took a 10% drop. Opportunities abound.
WSJ Issues Scathing Indictment Of How Current Administration Blew It On Inflation
"a scathing postmortem analysis of how the current administration completely botched the economy and supercharged inflation."
Notice how the MSM is slowly breaking its "contract" with the current, on its way out, leadership.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Completely agree.
Should be a very nice coming 4 years. I'm looking forward to my coin collection increasing in actual value, not just from rises because of inflation when in reality I'm just basically breaking even.
Yes, unless it drops 10% more. 😉
Prices up today though. Could be from world events mentioned. It is quite scary.
Oversold. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Is inflation the only indicator of the economy?
And yes, we all knew inflation was not "transitory". So if you are one to make decisions that affect billions of folk, do you say, "Inflation is out of control, get your goodies before you can't afford them anymore"?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Why do you think your coin collection will appreciate in value? Do you think they will be more desirable? Do you think folk will have more free cash to expend on a coin collecting hobby?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Yes
Yes
Yes
Why would folk view your coin collection as more desirable?
Where they gonna get this extra from?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Cards will rise in price as well.
Dare I say stamp collections may even rise. 😊
Why?
If folk have so much extra money so that they want to buy stamps, then id say you are looking at a massively inflationary situation as too much money would be looking for a place to hide.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The dollar index just broke its major uptrend.
Looks like it might be a good time to get back into gold and silver.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set