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Why metals are retreating. . .

derrybderryb Posts: 36,945 ✭✭✭✭✭
edited November 14, 2024 10:22AM in Precious Metals

The U.S. dollar's sharp 6.5% surge since early October is hammering PMs. Buy the dip, dollar reversal in the making.

The economic time bomb from the past four years will not be easily defused.

At best it will be restrained in its growth.

The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

Comments

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,187 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    The U.S. dollar's sharp 6.5% surge since early October is hammering PMs. Buy the dip, dollar reversal in the making.

    The economic time bomb from the past four years will not be easily defused.

    At best it will be restrained in its growth.

    I think you meant the last 8 years and the next four.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,899 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I think you meant the last 8 years and the next four.

    Crap. I find myself agreeing with coho. :o

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,945 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 14, 2024 5:38PM

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    The U.S. dollar's sharp 6.5% surge since early October is hammering PMs. Buy the dip, dollar reversal in the making.

    The economic time bomb from the past four years will not be easily defused.

    At best it will be restrained in its growth.

    I think you meant the last 8 years and the next four.

    Nope. Dollar traded pretty much side ways Feb 2015-Feb 2020. The past four years that I referenced, it increased by 24.7%. There is no data on the next four years so I'll just leave that for your speculation.

    A strengthening dollar in the face of rapidly growing debt is an economic time bomb. US debt increased by 34% in the four year period I referenced while increasing a total of only 45% over your past eight years. While there has been an economic time bomb since the FED began seriously kicking the can down the road in 2008, it's size and blast range has increased dramatically in the past four years. It would likely be a nuclear device by now if the FED hadn't temporarily covered Congress's A$$ (interest debt) by artificially lowering rates to near zero for an extended period. However, chickens always come home to roost unless they are slaughtered by a BRICS along the way.

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,187 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    The U.S. dollar's sharp 6.5% surge since early October is hammering PMs. Buy the dip, dollar reversal in the making.

    The economic time bomb from the past four years will not be easily defused.

    At best it will be restrained in its growth.

    I think you meant the last 8 years and the next four.

    Nope. Dollar traded pretty much side ways Feb 2015-Feb 2020. The past four years that I referenced, it increased by 24.7%. There is no data on the next four years so I'll just leave that for your speculation.

    >

    The dollar has increased by nearly 25% since 2020? You might want to check your data.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,945 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    The dollar has increased by nearly 25% since 2020? You might want to check your data.

    Dollar index (DXY) had it's lowest point in 2020 on March 1st at 95.95. As of today (DXY at 106.58) that's only a 10% increase.

    DXY reflects international ranking only and in no way does it reflect the dollar's purchasing power in the US. Inflation in the US has risen 21% since then meaning it has held only 80% of it's value.

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • AzurescensAzurescens Posts: 2,762 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The real mind warp for me is when spot gold and silver take big dives, the amount of gold and silver i sell goes up without me changing the price.

    I've got an insane number of watchers on some items just in the last couple days. It's a really strange thing to experience.

    I also bowed out of a lot of raw proof key date eagles this week because a lot of people seem to really really want them.

    I love this.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,899 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I also bowed out of a lot of raw proof key date eagles this week because a lot of people seem to really really want them.

    Which proof AGEs are you referring to? I've had conversations with dealers who told me that proof AGEs are highly-promoted about once a year and are pumped for inclusion into gold IRAs. Can you add any perspective?

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • rte592rte592 Posts: 1,690 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I'm not seeing a retraction on eBay.
    I was tasked with picking up some silver and a 1/10 ounce gold eagle for the Christmas coin club raffle.
    What silver I was bidding on was $55 last week is now $75.
    My $300 budget for gold I had to bump up to $320 because I was getting out bid on everything.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,187 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @rte592 said:
    I'm not seeing a retraction on eBay.
    I was tasked with picking up some silver and a 1/10 ounce gold eagle for the Christmas coin club raffle.
    What silver I was bidding on was $55 last week is now $75.

    >

    Maye you're just bidding on the wrong auctions?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,899 ✭✭✭✭✭

    It doesn't appear that those auctions have ended, but there is plenty of bidding support. What are the prices for auctions that have actually ended?

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,187 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    It doesn't appear that those auctions have ended, but there is plenty of bidding support. What are the prices for auctions that have actually ended?

    Those are sold, as shown.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • stevekstevek Posts: 29,159 ✭✭✭✭✭

    As mentioned in some previous threads, now that our country is headed in the right direction again, I think that PM's will not perform as well as other popular forms of investing. And could even perform negatively as has been happening lately.

    So in my view, if you just have to have gold and silver, which is never a bad idea, obtain it in the form of coins. Whereby numismatic values should definitely rise during the coming years.

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,896 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I thought economic catastrophes were GOOD for PM prices...now you say that is what is depressing their price ?? :o

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,945 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 17, 2024 10:07AM

    @GoldFinger1969 said:
    I thought economic catastrophes were GOOD for PM prices...now you say that is what is depressing their price ?? :o

    I said a strong dollar is currently dampening gold prices. I also said the economy has not been fixed (gov. debt/spending/inflation/interest rate uncertainty) and for that reason gold's long term future remains unchanged. Gold's continued growth rate depends on how fast the cause of a bad past four economic years can be reversed. Appears we are now taking a step in the right direction, but recovery is a long way off. Reversing the US's dependence on globalization and restoring it's production capacity is a great start.

    The question at hand is will the new administration tell the truth about the economy or continue with the smoke and mirror data manipulations. One cannot put out a fire if one does not see the flames.

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • rte592rte592 Posts: 1,690 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 17, 2024 5:08PM

    @cohodk said:

    @jmski52 said:
    It doesn't appear that those auctions have ended, but there is plenty of bidding support. What are the prices for auctions that have actually ended?

    Those are sold, as shown.

    I did check the sold listings and I guess I should have specified what I was bidding on.
    Not the random MS70 Silver Eagle.
    Mostly 2016-W Edge Lettering and other West point minted Eagles if not burnished in MS70 or PF70.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,187 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 17, 2024 5:10PM

    @derryb said:
    The question at hand is will the new administration tell the truth....

    Hahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahhahahhahaahhahahahhahahahahhahaha

    Ha.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,187 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 18, 2024 4:57AM

    @derryb said:

    @GoldFinger1969 said:
    I thought economic catastrophes were GOOD for PM prices...now you say that is what is depressing their price ?? :o

    I said a strong dollar is currently dampening gold prices. I also said the economy has not been fixed (gov. debt/spending/inflation/interest rate uncertainty) and for that reason gold's long term future remains unchanged. Gold's continued growth rate depends on how fast the cause of a bad past four economic years can be reversed. Appears we are now taking a step in the right direction, but recovery is a long way off. Reversing the US's dependence on globalization and restoring it's production capacity is a great start.

    GDP growth, unemployment rates and business bankruptcies were nearly the same in 2019 and 2023 and folks 401k balances were 25% higher in 2023. Which year was the bad one?

    If you think 2023 was bad....well...you have my sympathies.

    https://youtu.be/CD-E-LDc384?si=_O7R8VQ4J6f-6jzd

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,187 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @stevek said:
    As mentioned in some previous threads, now that our country is headed in the right direction again...

    Again? When was before?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • stevekstevek Posts: 29,159 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @stevek said:
    As mentioned in some previous threads, now that our country is headed in the right direction again...

    Again? When was before?

    A few months ago.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,187 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @stevek said:

    @cohodk said:

    @stevek said:
    As mentioned in some previous threads, now that our country is headed in the right direction again...

    Again? When was before?

    A few months ago.

    Oh, ok. I thought you were referring to 1861.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,899 ✭✭✭✭✭

    We won't know about the direction of the new administration until we see the effects of some of its policies.

    The backstabbing hasn't even begun in earnest yet. But it will.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,899 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The Metals are rebounding today. Gold +$46, Silver +$0.83

    Anybody know why?

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • psuman08psuman08 Posts: 331 ✭✭✭✭

    My guess would Ukraine issues and use of longer-range US missiles.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,899 ✭✭✭✭✭

    My guess would Ukraine issues and use of longer-range US missiles.

    That's a distinct possibility, but irradiated gold & silver holdings won't be worth much if it happens. Hope for the best.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,364 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Gold and silver took a 10% drop. Opportunities abound.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,945 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 18, 2024 12:44PM

    @cohodk said:

    @stevek said:
    As mentioned in some previous threads, now that our country is headed in the right direction again...

    Again? When was before?

    WSJ Issues Scathing Indictment Of How Current Administration Blew It On Inflation

    "a scathing postmortem analysis of how the current administration completely botched the economy and supercharged inflation."

    Notice how the MSM is slowly breaking its "contract" with the current, on its way out, leadership.

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • stevekstevek Posts: 29,159 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @stevek said:
    As mentioned in some previous threads, now that our country is headed in the right direction again...

    Notice how the MSM is slowly breaking its "contract" with the current, on its way out, leadership.

    Completely agree.

    Should be a very nice coming 4 years. I'm looking forward to my coin collection increasing in actual value, not just from rises because of inflation when in reality I'm just basically breaking even.

  • stevekstevek Posts: 29,159 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @TwoSides2aCoin said:
    Gold and silver took a 10% drop. Opportunities abound.

    Yes, unless it drops 10% more. 😉

    Prices up today though. Could be from world events mentioned. It is quite scary.

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,961 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Oversold. RGDS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
    BOOMIN!™

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,187 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 18, 2024 5:44PM

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @stevek said:
    As mentioned in some previous threads, now that our country is headed in the right direction again...

    Again? When was before?

    WSJ Issues Scathing Indictment Of How Current Administration Blew It On Inflation

    "a scathing postmortem analysis of how the current administration completely botched the economy and supercharged inflation."

    Notice how the MSM is slowly breaking its "contract" with the current, on its way out, leadership.

    Is inflation the only indicator of the economy?

    And yes, we all knew inflation was not "transitory". So if you are one to make decisions that affect billions of folk, do you say, "Inflation is out of control, get your goodies before you can't afford them anymore"?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,187 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @stevek said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @stevek said:
    As mentioned in some previous threads, now that our country is headed in the right direction again...

    Notice how the MSM is slowly breaking its "contract" with the current, on its way out, leadership.

    Completely agree.

    Should be a very nice coming 4 years. I'm looking forward to my coin collection increasing in actual value, not just from rises because of inflation when in reality I'm just basically breaking even.

    Why do you think your coin collection will appreciate in value? Do you think they will be more desirable? Do you think folk will have more free cash to expend on a coin collecting hobby?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • stevekstevek Posts: 29,159 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @stevek said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @stevek said:
    As mentioned in some previous threads, now that our country is headed in the right direction again...

    Notice how the MSM is slowly breaking its "contract" with the current, on its way out, leadership.

    Completely agree.

    Should be a very nice coming 4 years. I'm looking forward to my coin collection increasing in actual value, not just from rises because of inflation when in reality I'm just basically breaking even.

    Why do you think your coin collection will appreciate in value? Do you think they will be more desirable? Do you think folk will have more free cash to expend on a coin collecting hobby?

    Yes
    Yes
    Yes

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,187 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @stevek said:

    @cohodk said:

    @stevek said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @stevek said:
    As mentioned in some previous threads, now that our country is headed in the right direction again...

    Notice how the MSM is slowly breaking its "contract" with the current, on its way out, leadership.

    Completely agree.

    Should be a very nice coming 4 years. I'm looking forward to my coin collection increasing in actual value, not just from rises because of inflation when in reality I'm just basically breaking even.

    Why do you think your coin collection will appreciate in value? Do you think they will be more desirable? Do you think folk will have more free cash to expend on a coin collecting hobby?

    Yes
    Yes
    Yes

    Why would folk view your coin collection as more desirable?
    Where they gonna get this extra from?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • stevekstevek Posts: 29,159 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @stevek said:

    @cohodk said:

    @stevek said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @stevek said:
    As mentioned in some previous threads, now that our country is headed in the right direction again...

    Notice how the MSM is slowly breaking its "contract" with the current, on its way out, leadership.

    Completely agree.

    Should be a very nice coming 4 years. I'm looking forward to my coin collection increasing in actual value, not just from rises because of inflation when in reality I'm just basically breaking even.

    Why do you think your coin collection will appreciate in value? Do you think they will be more desirable? Do you think folk will have more free cash to expend on a coin collecting hobby?

    Yes
    Yes
    Yes

    Why would folk view your coin collection as more desirable?
    Where they gonna get this extra from?

    Cards will rise in price as well.

    Dare I say stamp collections may even rise. 😊

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,187 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 18, 2024 8:00PM

    @stevek said:

    @cohodk said:

    @stevek said:

    @cohodk said:

    @stevek said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @stevek said:
    As mentioned in some previous threads, now that our country is headed in the right direction again...

    Notice how the MSM is slowly breaking its "contract" with the current, on its way out, leadership.

    Completely agree.

    Should be a very nice coming 4 years. I'm looking forward to my coin collection increasing in actual value, not just from rises because of inflation when in reality I'm just basically breaking even.

    Why do you think your coin collection will appreciate in value? Do you think they will be more desirable? Do you think folk will have more free cash to expend on a coin collecting hobby?

    Yes
    Yes
    Yes

    Why would folk view your coin collection as more desirable?
    Where they gonna get this extra from?

    Cards will rise in price as well.

    Dare I say stamp collections may even rise. 😊

    Why?

    If folk have so much extra money so that they want to buy stamps, then id say you are looking at a massively inflationary situation as too much money would be looking for a place to hide.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • GoldminersGoldminers Posts: 4,097 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 19, 2024 3:54AM

    @jmski52 said:
    The Metals are rebounding today. Gold +$46, Silver +$0.83

    Anybody know why?

    The dollar index just broke its major uptrend.

    Looks like it might be a good time to get back into gold and silver.

  • stevekstevek Posts: 29,159 ✭✭✭✭✭

    "Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) Heads Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to Address Members of Congress Thursday on Capitol Hill – GOP Lawmakers Form DOGE Caucus and DOGE Committee"

    It will be interesting to see how the markets react to this. I'm sure every serious precious metals trader will be intensely watching this session.

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,961 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @stevek said:
    "Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) Heads Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to Address Members of Congress Thursday on Capitol Hill – GOP Lawmakers Form DOGE Caucus and DOGE Committee"

    It will be interesting to see how the markets react to this. I'm sure every serious precious metals trader will be intensely watching this session.

    Extremely doubtful. I'm pretty certain every precious metal trader could care less. RGDS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
    BOOMIN!™

  • stevekstevek Posts: 29,159 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @blitzdude said:

    @stevek said:
    "Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) Heads Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to Address Members of Congress Thursday on Capitol Hill – GOP Lawmakers Form DOGE Caucus and DOGE Committee"

    It will be interesting to see how the markets react to this. I'm sure every serious precious metals trader will be intensely watching this session.

    Extremely doubtful. I'm pretty certain every precious metal trader could care less. RGDS!

    Yes, the losers won't be watching. 😉

  • stevekstevek Posts: 29,159 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 5, 2024 10:10AM

    Gold
    2,647.70
    -28.50
    (-1.06%)

    Yea - that meeting today didn't affect anything. LOL

    A stable, efficient, low inflation economy which is now being offered, decreases the value of gold. Over the next 4 years, gold may still rise in price a bit, but other investments will be much better.

    Ya like gold? Fine, so do I. Best to buy gold coins with numismatic value that will increase in price more than just plain gold.

  • GoldminersGoldminers Posts: 4,097 ✭✭✭✭✭

    An 8-bit coin used to refer to a dollar. Now 8 bitcoins are closer to $800,000.
    The times, ... they are a changing.

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,961 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @stevek said:
    Gold
    2,647.70
    -28.50
    (-1.06%)

    Yea - that meeting today didn't affect anything. LOL

    A stable, efficient, low inflation economy which is now being offered, decreases the value of gold. Over the next 4 years, gold may still rise in price a bit, but other investments will be much better.

    Ya like gold? Fine, so do I. Best to buy gold coins with numismatic value that will increase in price more than just plain gold.

    Exactly, another "nothingburger". Yawn, more of the same. The net worth be BOOMIN. THKS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
    BOOMIN!™

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,945 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @blitzdude said:

    Exactly, another "nothingburger". Yawn, more of the same. The net worth be BOOMIN. THKS!

    You are far from special. All net worth basically grows in an inflationary, money printing environment. It's all relative. Those who lose net worth in such an environment simply gave it to the other party in their asset transaction.

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

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