Franklin Half Collectors: What is the market like for PCGS MS67 examples?
braddick
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I have noticed a few of these are selling for less than $200. at auction- even though the PCGS priceguide lists them with a value
of $500.00.
Is this a market correction?
It wasn't long ago common MS67 Franklins were priced right around Morgan MS66 levels.
Now I see that has changed.
I wonder if it is temporary or the new reality for Franklin halves.
Two examples that closed today at under $200:
https://www.ebay.com/itm/305804836224
https://www.ebay.com/itm/305804723721
peacockcoins
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I know I don't have to tell you, if it's a 67FBL, it's a fatter return. How much fatter is the question.
"Brother, can you spare a dime?" (Especially a 1975 no S proof?)
I just looked at the NGC and PCGS populations.
I'm inferring you're commenting on the date/MM with higher counts where many aren't low for a "top pop". Dozens to over 100 combined depending upon whether evaluated with FBL, without it, or both.
I've read that the two services use different standards for FBL but either way, this is a series with a relatively low collector preference. With it, I also infer that the number of collectors buying $500 coins from it is relatively low too.
My guess is most Franklin Half collectors are middle income folks that are not wildly enthusiastic about the economy right now. Rather than spending $500 on a 67 they will settle for a nice 66 at $200.
I can’t see any dealer feeling comfortable housing MS-67 Franklins when decent looking 65’s and 66’s are available for a fraction of the cost.
That's just it- it isn't any longer a "fraction of the cost" when a PCGS MS67 sells for under $200.00- unless the cost of the MS66s and MS65s dramatically decrease too.
peacockcoins
Could it be the consequences of gradeflation?
Even if 65’s and 66’s were trading at a fraction of the cost of 67’s, that reasoning could be applied to all sorts of coin types, not just Franklin halves.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Why pay four or five figures for a modern coin in 67 when I can buy a decent 65 for around $100 and call it a day.
If that $300 (difference between paying $200 or $500 for a Franklin) means the difference in making your car payment you're more inclined not to buy the $500 coin versus paying $200K or $500K when the $300K doesn't impact your lifestyle at all (Gates, Musk, Bezos, etc.).
$500 isn't 4 figures. And we're talking $200 for a 67 compared to $100 for a 65.
I understand that. But my point was that in most series, the price difference between a 67 and a 66 or 65 is equally significant. So if the higher cost of MS67 Franklin halves is responsible for their decline in price, other series should be encountering similar price drops for higher grade examples.
Additionally, a lot of coins of various types and grades - including lower grade and/or value coins - are trading at lower prices than they were a year or two ago.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
The two original links don't have FBL. Recent eBay sales for a PCGS MS-65 show sales all but a few dates at $75 or less, though not all with FBL. If these prices are representative, some dates aren't worth submitting to obtain an MS-65, except maybe in bulk.
I think the focus is the ability to pay the difference. At one level (Franklins) the ability to pay comes to an end due to an impact on lifestyle where on another level (ex. early dollars) paying the difference in price has no impact on lifestyle, demand for the higher grade coin remains high and the price remains high because there are the disposable dollars to pay the price.
Check out common date Morgan dollar and Walking Liberty half dollar prices in MS65, 66 and MS67 condition and note the premiums for the 67’s.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
This was my logic when I started this thread.
peacockcoins
Are the differences hundreds or thousands of dollars in price?
Hundreds.
I think differences of hundreds will impact those of lower means versus those that have a lot of disposable income. At 20 years old $300 was considered a lot of money (car payment was $77/month). Today $300 is a drop in the bucket and for some $300K is a drop in the bucket.
When collecting in the 90's, 67's were hard to get. 67FBL's were harder. More 67's now so maybe the price in lower now...
So to answer your question, I don't know, but for reg sets, 67's are a nice addition...
Personally the coins seem to lack eye appeal and appear unattractive so maybe $200 is the right price.
Interesting question. For me like them in 64-66 range. Don’t track the 67 pieces but I can see where somebody with pocket for them might want invest in. I will see if can research their trend in CF.
Many excellent, great eye appeal, top end 65 FBLs can be had for $60 or less. For a type set collector like me that more than fits the bill. And for 1/3 the price, or better, of a 67.
Having fun while switching things up and focusing on a next level PCGS slabbed 1950+ type set, while still looking for great examples for the 7070.
$220 is the greysheet price. The problem is the PCGS price guide.
As a lower budget collector. 66+ is definitely fine for me. Some harder dates 65s are good for me.
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
I have a decent Franklin collection (all the proofs, most of the MSs in MS64 or better) but 67s are only the newest proofs. Probably due to budget, but I don’t think a I’ve ever seriously considered buying an MS67.
Not that I’m indicative of the market, but I might represent a chunk of it.
Along with @erwindoc I suspect gradeflation. I have a pretty big Franklin collection, both business strike and proof, although I have not been active in that market for a decade or so. From regrades/resubmits from other series, I definitely have seen grades go up on coins from the '90s and 'Oughts when run through the plastic factory again. THe economics are not as strong in Franklins, so I do not have any experience running graded Frankies through the mill again.
If it is gradeflation, you would expect a similar effect to hit the other series as well, perhaps Franklins are just not as popular in addition to gradeflation, so its showing up here first.
The 58-D appears ugly from the photos, so the $200 probably includes an "ugly discount". The 56 looks nice, probably a very good price. I suspect most collectors of 67 Franklins chase the FBLs, so when the 67 non-FBLs show up on ebay with no reserve, lack of bidders can result in a relative "bargain".
I think I recognize the toning and believe, in hand, it'll look a bit more colorful than the straight-on photo.
Could be wrong, yet if I am correct it'll be attractive, especially so with the luster I am counting on.
We'll see, it should be arriving this week.
peacockcoins
How do they look in-hand?
Terrible. A true disappointment.
One of only four returns I've made since 1997.
peacockcoins
My understanding was that the series peaked years ago...and there was a thread detailing how CAC or 1-grade increments really changed the value by a ton at certain grades.
But I wonder if the declines for many small denomination U.S. coins like Franklins have come back with the PCGS 3,000 index ?
You have a series that is notorious for grade inflation along with poor photos. I’m not really that surprised.