Looks like our hobby isn't the only one to get hammered post COVID
ndleo
Posts: 4,138 ✭✭✭✭✭
You could literally replace all the references to Art with Sportscards and the story would be the same.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/young-artists-rode-712-million-151112323.html
Mike
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Comments
Same goes 4 Comic Books!
The young artist should have saved him money instead of renting a luxury apt.
For some strange reason, I feel like certain comic books will beat the market and continue to fetch high premium.
I think art will be revealed to be hyper inflated by wealth schemes
The substantial truth doctrine is an important defense in defamation law that allows individuals to avoid liability if the gist of their statement was true.
If blindly misappropriating wealth is a hobby, then I'd be glad to have a different hobby.
Enjoy the go.
So, basically collectors were speculating on rookies in the art world. Sounds like someone buying up all the Dave Magadans back in the 80s.
No matter the item you can collect the stable pieces and pay more money or speculate on newbies and hope you hit a home run. You won't always hit a home run...
they were prospecting. sounds familiar.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Collectable cars, same. And a reminder we aren’t even in recession yet, and unemployment is near all time lows. Take that for what its worth.
I keep hearing how prices have dropped. I was not collecting during COVID. Have vintage prices dropped much?
Not the ones I'm buying!
Would I be selfish if I was someone who hopes the value of 1971 Topps PSA 7s (and other PSA cards I'm still lacking like the Topps Traded Ripken RC, Joe Montana RC, and the 2nd/3rd year Jordans) goes way down and becomes more affordable?
D's: 54S,53P,50P,49S,45D+S,44S,43D,41S,40D+S,39D+S,38D+S,37D+S,36S,35D+S,all 16-34's
Q's: 52S,47S,46S,40S,39S,38S,37D+S,36D+S,35D,34D,32D+S
74T: 37,38,47,151,193,241,435,570,610,654,655 97 Finest silver: 115,135,139,145,310
73T:31,55,61,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,80,152,165,189,213,235,237,257,341,344,377,379,390,422,433,453,480,497,545,554,563,580,606,613,630
95 Ultra GM Sets: Golden Prospects,HR Kings,On-Base Leaders,Power Plus,RBI Kings,Rising Stars
Prices don't drop, they get corrected.
Enjoy the go.
Care to share what you are buying? If regularly traded, it is likely down from Covid peaks.
Montana PSA 7 is currently trading 50% off peak.
87 Jordan PSA 7 more then 75% off peak.
So ya, I’d say expecting further large price drops is getting greedy.
Everytime this thread comes up I’m amazed how unaware collectors are of how far key cards are off Covid peaks. Now, that doesn’t make them bargains, and most widely traded stuff is still softening, but literally every single card that trades at decent volumes is off 30-80% ATH’s.
I’ve been collecting post Covid. There are still those willing to overpay/overprice on cards. That’s telling me that there are cracks forming because they are in the minority. We still haven’t fully corrected to the downside. I’ve picked up more cards this year than my previous two years combined. I’m ok picking up the leftovers because I’m not going to pay for the mistakes people made over the past 5/6 years…
I was being a bit tongue in cheek on that. I don't really track prices since I never sell, but it still seems like I pay a lot for what I like (all vintage).
Sorry for the confusion.
I meant more the 1971 Topps PSA 7's.
D's: 54S,53P,50P,49S,45D+S,44S,43D,41S,40D+S,39D+S,38D+S,37D+S,36S,35D+S,all 16-34's
Q's: 52S,47S,46S,40S,39S,38S,37D+S,36D+S,35D,34D,32D+S
74T: 37,38,47,151,193,241,435,570,610,654,655 97 Finest silver: 115,135,139,145,310
73T:31,55,61,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,80,152,165,189,213,235,237,257,341,344,377,379,390,422,433,453,480,497,545,554,563,580,606,613,630
95 Ultra GM Sets: Golden Prospects,HR Kings,On-Base Leaders,Power Plus,RBI Kings,Rising Stars
NFT
Seriously. I can't seem to give cards away, but I find something to buy and suddenly everybody is interested and the bid ends up inexplicably high.
Especially Proxybid type sites. I see final prices 3x, 4x, 5x prices readily available on ebay. I haven't found a decent deal in over six months, when I was buying at least a couple times a month.
All good, I never sell either.
Just for giggles I looked up on VCP 1986 Jordan PSA 7 - Peak $14,250 (2/1/21), current average $ 4,850...that's quite a COVID drop! PSA 8 - 25K to 7K, PSA 9 80K to 18K...now for the big boys - $ 840,000! for a PSA 10 (7/17/21 - PWCC Premier on 48 bids) to current average of $ 212,0000. Last eBay went for 145K on 1/10/24.
Jordan “RC” is a great image…but very easy to find. PSA has graded 25k+ copies with a high POP of 325 in a PSA-10 for a 6-figure card.
I purchased a PSA-9 as a retirement gift in early 2022 paying $34,700 or $10k above going rate for a PSA-9 with at least one LOL on monthly acquisitions. I risked another $5k on a review after seeing the card in hand with what I saw as a 50/50 chance of bumping to a PSA-10. I received a bump…and immediately had Memory Lane pick it up to include in its Winter Auction. If it were a difficult card …I would still be holding it today. Instead…I never held the PSA-10 in hand.
My point is some cards due not have the rarity to justify lofty prices. I have focused my collection on vintage post war cards in the 50s and 60s as well as a few 70s not only because these were the years in which I grew up idolizing these HOFs but also because cards were not as mass-produced like today…and were not preserved like today. I look for these cards in high end (PSA-8.5 or 9).
This comment is worth hanging a lantern on, as with such cards there's a nice way to enjoy them and never really have to care about prices going up or down. Almost all of the 60s-present day stuff in all sports is fairly easy to find. I love the star cards from those decades. The way I collect, I don't like putting money into cards where the cost is tied solely to a subjective sticker grade, so it is nice to be able to find all the great cards from that timespan with strong eye appeal in relatively affordable 4-7 holders. Sometimes if lucky you even get a pretty 1-3 with unobtrusive back damage or a very faint wrinkle. That inoculates a collector from ever having to care about prices on those cards; you get a pretty copy of the image to look at in the collection, and the cost is so low. It also frees up resources for the really rare (i.e., much older, and/or signed) cards that cost a bundle even in very poor condition— those are the cards with great intrinsic value, where their cost is high due more to the card's sheer existence, as opposed to what a grader arbitrarily decided one day (an opinion that would often be different, on a different day).
Short answer, yes. The silver lining is key cards purchased pre-2016 and way earlier have still increased in value substantially from that purchase point.
So to be clear, PSA bumped your 9 straight to a 10, not a 9.5, in a #57? That’s incredible for a non crackout situation. I’d never think they would do that on THAT card!
HOF SIGNED FOOTBALL RCS
Yes…I sent in the card to PSA slabbed in a PSA-9 holder, and it bumped to PSA-10. Let me say…the card did not look out of place in PSA-10 holder. The card was that nice…and I recognized it had a decent chance at bumping. And yes, it was a 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan #57.
Have the prices dropped much for 1970 PSA 9 hall of famers? I'm not talking about the key rookie cards. For example have the prices dropped much for PSA 9's for non rookie cards of Brett, Bench, Rose, Ryan, Winfield, Reggie Jackson, Munson, and so on?
I've noticed Classic Munson Cards like 1971,1973,1975 seem to have held some of their pandemic gains especially 1971. 1970,1972,1974,1976,1978 appear to have given up all gains and is some cases are lower than 2019 FMV. If accounting for inflation they are around where they were 8-10 years ago.
Please note; this post is based merely on personal observations as Munson collector as well as my purchases since Jan 2024.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Thanks I appreciate the response. Munson is my all time favorite player. August of 79 was devasting to me and my family.
At least Tim agreed with me.
Correction. Not drops. If prices are returning to levels pre-2020, then we are witnessing a more realistic pricing structure in the marketplace. If you sold off during the hype, you won. If you overspent at peak pricing, good luck with your recovery.
A Vintage Card Pricing membership is a rather valuable asset these days when seeking answers to recent pricing history. You can even find out who was most active as a seller in the "COVID Marketplace" to gain a more accurate understanding of how a boom went back to kinda, sorta normal.
One must always consider the value of rarity, demand, and most of all, consequences.
Enjoy the go.
For those looking for pricing on this or that, PSA has a great tool that allows you to look at past auctions in all grades. Google ‘ 1970 PSA 9 Tom Seaver’ and you will have all price discovery at your fingertips.
FWIW, I don’t care about pricing, but will push back on folks that claim card prices are strong. They aren’t, at least relevant to ATH’s - which is how investments are tracked. This hobby has turned into an asset class so let’s continue to talk about it that way….even when prices are falling out. The “omg a new high” posts were nauseating during Covid so as prices fall I’ll be here to remind folks that key cards are off 50-80%.
Standard bubble stuff and when any like me pointed out it was a bubble we were scoffed at from Sellers and Collectors alike. Totally agree those using outliers as sign of hobby strength are either clueless or misleading.
"Oh where of where has @blurryface 's Instagram friend, gone oh where of where can he be?" Dude was outright bragging in 2021 that he purchased 200 1990 PSA 10 Frank Thomas' most of which at 2021-22 pandemic levels. AKA how to easily turn 120K into 20K in 18 months.
I stated then when it dropped back to pre 2020 prices I'd purchase another one just for laughs. Well in Oct 2023 I did just that picked up a dead centered 800 flip series PSA10 for $100 - haggled down at local show from $120.
Then we had folks here who saying 1986 Donurss Canseco's were a "good" investment at $600.
The list could go on and on...
The posts even then were nauseating and now more so.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
I think some context is needed for the Jordan cards from back in 2021 to explain what happened with his Fleer prices from 1986-1990 cards. Back on February 1, 2021 a pair of Goldin auctions ended at $738k each - both on the same day and for the same exact amount of $738k - one with 24 bids and one with 28 bids. Very strange that two separate auctions for the same exact card and amount on the same day - not impossible but the same exact amounts?
What makes this really “strange and curious” is that this is not say a 1933 Lajoie or 1915 CJ Cobb where there are very examples out there for sale, and potentially a bidding war could happen driving prices up 30-50% over normal VCP price. The 86 Fleer Jordan in PSA 10 has over 300+ examples, and in the two months prior over 7 sales took place for PSA 10’s - avg price was in the $206k range and prior sales over a 6 month period were on average $125k. Why would not one but two people in separate auctions pay 2.5-3x the average selling price for a card they could have bought on eBay that week for $200k? As a PSA 10 there is no reason to overpay like you would possibly do for a PSA 9 to try and get a bump. Monte did thinking there was a possible bump possibility where you could 10x your money and was correct and made a wise choice.
Back to the two auctions for $738k and why IMO. No reason to pay $738k for an item when you could get it for $200k right? Chances of both record setting auctions ending for the same exact absurd amount from the same seller. To get to that $738k amount meant there were a minimum of two bidders that wanted to pay much, and if they really wanted a Jordan rookie there were 4 listed on eBay for sale that same day for $200k. IMO there is only one reason to do that, and my guess is that someone had a bunch of 8’s and 9’s they had accumulated over a 1-2 year time period. Then once those two sales took place the market exploded and someone made some money off the “sales” for $738k, and a bunch of people got FOMO and paid way too much.
KC
A PSA 9.5 of an ‘86 Jordan RC would certainly be a unicorn.
Another overlooked aspect revolves around grading volumes. During ‘good times’ there will always be a rush to grade as much as possible. Mergers and expansion of products indicates (to me) that the bottom is about to fall out….
Manipulation will always exist
Manipulation was a huge part of the run up, the auction houses are in on it, buying groups moving cards amongst themselves. There was a consistent pattern - an eBay listing gets hit for a crazy ATH, and amazingly a different copy of that same card/grade ends up in an AH - usually PWCC - 2 weeks later followed by more cards and voila, a new price is set. All you needed was 3-5 copies of a key card and the willingness to eat selling costs and you could drive a card up 50-100%.
The group wins, the AH wins, and some retail collector is left holding the bag.
Lesson - don’t be the dumb money and ignore FOMO.
Most items 1975 and back psa 8.5 and up are up by a decent chunk. 8's are up some, below that it's tough. barely up or stagnant.
Infrequent poster, but read a lot of posts here. I'll chime in and state vintage unopened wax seems to have held up well post COVID. While I wish I had cashed in on selling my 86 Fleer Jordan PSA 8 at its peak and then scooped it back up for a third of the price now, I can't seem to find a 67 Topps Baseball Wax Pack in a PSA holder for under $3,800. That's the last pack I need for a run from 1960-1989. Checking VCP on my other wax packs in PSA holders show all have held up well since COVID, holding their COVID value and many increasing in value. Thoughts on vintage unopened wax outpacing cards?
1975 Topps Brett, PSA 9
Peak 8500
Sales over 5500: 5
Last 3 sales average: 4497
Adjusted for inflation and cost to sell, the Brett is barely above late pre Covid prices, and still dropping.
I could do this all day but would prefer folks just use the PSA tool. All the data is available, we don’t need to guess.
We must be looking at different sales data. The last 3 sales of the base topps (not mini) were:
ebay, 5000 and 5400 and Heritage for 4440. that would give me an average of $4,946.
If we expand out to the previous 3 sales (all in this calendar year) we have
PWCC $7,800 Ebay $4680 and Goldin $7320.
That would give a 6 sale average of $5773 from March 2024 to july 13 2024 but peak sales seem to not be down too much. 8500 during peak to 7800 on May 5th 2024
is it possible you were including sales of the Brett mini?
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Possible it was the mini. What are the Covid peaks for the regular? Because if my data is the mini then that can’t be used as the comp.
Brett aside, every single card that is reasonably available, that I’ve ever searched using PSA’s database, is well off Covid peaks.
True. I see this more and more from auction houses on Proxybid:
"At the request of the auction company, this auction permits bids to be placed by the auctioneer, an employee of the auctioneer, or the seller or an agent on the seller's behalf. While Proxibid's Unified User Agreement prohibits this behavior, in accordance with UCC 2-328, this auction is permitted to engage in this activity by providing this clear disclosure to you, the bidder."
We can shill bid because we said we can shill bid. How nice of them.
I've also seen statements that say they can see your max bid.
They can just bid up to your max bid.
I did not know this. So an auction house can shill if they disclose to bidders that they can shill? that is insane.
do you happen to know which auction houses have this disclaimer?
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
In proxybid auction houses which use their services can modify and/or extend their user agreement.
I don’t know if sellers can see buyers pre-bids. There’s probably some unscrupulous auction houses using proxybid.
I’ve bought cars on there before. Never had an issue but I’ll keep my eye yes open.
This ^
Excellent advice for new and experienced collectors, and I have followed this for a large percentage of my recent pickups the last couple of years. While I love collecting PSA 8/8.5 graded examples finding cards in PSA 4-6.5 for a huge percentage off higher grades is a lot of fun and challenging. As I get further into my collection I enjoy viewing my collection more so than what is it worth. Plus I have more money to spend overall on cards. A couple of recent examples.
Using peak prices can be misleading. If it's one sale that spikes up well above all other sales, it should be discarded if it is a card with a reasonable population and sells frequency. What I generally see in high grade vintage is some are off their highs but still well above pre-Covid levels. PSA 7s also seem to be strong and holding value. That may be due to the fact grading is so expensive and people are figuring if they can get a card for $15, they're getting it for the cost of grading. I went through and priced inventory a few weeks back and I was shocked at the value of my PSA 7s. Cards that I always viewed as $5 cards are now consistently selling for $10-$15.
Beautiful cards. Why are they graded so low? Surface issues?
Question did the sellers ask for a premium since the cards appear to be graded way to low. Example did the Mantle sell for what a PSA 5 usually sells for?
I've noticed quite a few. I tend to forget which ones.
If you click on the "Terms of Sale" from the Auction page, it'll say on the first line.
When I get emailed about a saved search, I open the Auction page only to realize they were an AH that shill bids, but like I said, often times I have to double check because I forget which ones do.
I wish I was able to block certain AHs. Also the ones that use 3rd party shipping too.
Wild story, I was bidding on several items from one AH and time was running down. I get outbid and then a text from the owner of the AH telling me not to bother continuing to bid because he's getting those items for his nephew. I texted him back saying I really needed/wanted the items so I went ahead and bid again. He responded, "You won't win. I'll just keep bidding." I said this is BS, and I bid again (it was still below my target price anyway). He then responded, "Who do you think will win? You or the guy running the auction." Then he offered me no buyers fee on the next auction. I reported him to all the Auction platforms he's contracted with, and they all said the same thing, it's between me and the AH. They are all disinterested platforms.
I agree! > @82FootballWaxMemorys said:
Blurryface is okay. His card purchases helped fuel him buying a nice home so he must not have been doing bad.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
Got a few Greg Jeffries cards here for your bicycle spokes
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