Do all signs point to collectibles are red hot again?
Cakes
Posts: 3,632 ✭✭✭✭✭
I keep seeing record prices paid for sports cards, granted most are pristine examples, but overall the price increases seem to have returned.
The guys on the coin side have felt it too, getting outbid on items they would have normally won for much less. They think the main causes are inflation and the fact that there are just so many more wealthy people out there with plenty of disposable income. Thoughts?
Successful coin BST transactions with Gerard and segoja.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
2
Comments
I have had a slight uptick, but I'm not selling big time items, just the ones that don't get the grade I want.
No need to wonder, PSA has all this data online and everytime a thread like this comes up I post some high profile cards:
https://www.psacard.com/auctionprices/basketball-cards/1986-fleer/michael-jordan/values/299576#g=9
https://www.psacard.com/auctionprices/football-cards/1976-topps/walter-payton/values/270659#g=8
The stuff I follow and track, mostly Hockey, still trending down or flat. I don’t see any signs the hobby is red hot right now, feels like a stable market to me with most stuff well off peak prices but still comfortably above pre-pandemic:
https://www.psacard.com/auctionprices/hockey-cards/1979-o-pee-chee/wayne-gretzky/values/321695#g=8
If it truly qualifies as a solid investment, it will fly. Rarity matters. Availability matters more. Many great items have been hoarded and stored away. So, that makes what we can still see very red hot.
Enjoy the go.
No is answer. Outliers will always exist , so will peaks and valleys.
Collectibles all being red hot ain't happening again. No free money, no pandemic, no more perfect storm
I have doubts that the pandemic stimulus was having a meaningful impact on the top end of the collectibles market. Home values, stock market... seem more realistic to me. I wouldn't be able to say how much the pandemic stimulus checks were for or what the total was, but I would guess most people saw a dramatic rise in their investment vehicles or took a little money off the table in their home or sold a property when prices were up and rates were down.
I certainly see some anomalies. One auction site I have been bidding in for years (and where I have purchased numerous bargains) has now gone the opposite direction. Insane prices. Last night I had 9 cards bookmarked for last day bids. By I time I signed in, every single card had been bid up higher than any recent sale price.
Late 60's and early to mid 70's non-sports
The economic numbers are starting to get very good, prices are falling, inflation seems to be falling back to normal and the market is doing very well.
All that's going to make folks think they're doing very well and have money to spend. That's a guarantee things like collectibles, artwork, etc... are going to be popular.
For now...
The pandemic itself might have brought on a bit of maneuvering, perhaps a year or so after the shutdown the money was really flying, but I bet it was mostly wealthy speculators being encouraged to go bananas and duel to the death.
Enjoy the go.
I could see it and see some things that would make me think maybe. Thursday the market saw a huge dip in the Nasdaq and the explanation was there was a rotation out of those tech stocks into something/stocks perhaps viewed as more stable. A little ringing of the register or leaving the casino with some money in your pocket. (Nasdaq did shoot right back Friday though.)
On a small scale I trimmed a stock and felt, who knows how much more upside it has in the short-term. So the cash has been sitting there. And I thought you know maybe instead of buying some other stock I will use it on cards. Which had not been a consideration in a long time.
In that sense, I can see some people considering using recently earned cash that surpassed expectations on cards. There isn't stimulus money which may have driven up some cards and inflation is impacting a part of the population which could impact some sales negatively. But there could be other made money from things like tech stocks real estate sales, which can be substantial, that folks consider allocating to cards.
Maybe not the ideal time to bid on a /25 Judge or Soto card.
I dont think the market is red hot. I think it has leveled with rare/vintage items doing very well. but then again, rare/vintage usually does really well
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
My last 4 PSA Graded Card purchases, all Vintage (1952,1962,1971,1976) have been for less than their going rate in 2019 - and for 2 of them it was in somewhat heavy bidding.
Those who spent $650 on a 1990 Leaf Frank Thomas or a 1990 Fleer Michael Jordan ain't ever coming back to the hobby and simply no replacement rubes on the horizon.
BTW Comic Books other than outliers are being totally killed. Even some key of keys are down to pre-pandemic levels or lower. Some dealers have resorted to outright lying saying business is great in hopes of somehow willing it to be the reality. 2 are good friends of mine - I need to rethink those choices, seriously.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
it is interesting to hear about the comic book hobby. I had no idea how it performed during the pandemic or post pandemic. it would seem they are faring worse than sportscards post pandemic.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Comic Market is in disarray! Very few new readers in last 20 years. The Movie Boom is long over , pandemic bubble burst. That hobby may be start of a death spiral.
82football Dude is totally correct about lying sellers, for many the lies are all they will have by end of the 2020s
It wasn’t the stimulus checks, it was Fed stimulus - money was free and accessible and people gorged on debt. I borrowed 200k @ 1.74%, invested it in financial markets, and made 15% returns. Absolutely free money, every asset class went crazy.
What comes next will be interesting, a lot of well known economists and business leaders think inflation and rates will be sticky.
Doing what you did = smart, using it to purchase a 100k Wander Franco card not so much
The fact the market has settled in well above pre-pandemic price levels is a solid positive for our hobby. That means that many (though not all) of the people who entered the hobby while locked in their homes are still active even though society has long since opened back up.
I’m hopeful that one good thing to come from the high inflation is that as everyone adjusts to higher prices things like cards won’t look too expensive at pandemic prices and they retain their value.
I like the trickle-down sportscard theory…. For a movie.
Afternoon,
Yeah, Comics have been hammered since about the end of Covid, not sure why, but it is a fact. I have been Bottom Feeding for the last year and half after pivoting from Cards when I started to see the trend in Comics. And sheesh, Comics are my First Love so I was just kinda over the Cards and wanting to a limited scope to recapture my Previous Comic Collections. I Still do some Card Stuff.
So I've been concentrating on 60/70's Silver Age Runs and Keys. In just a year & half I have picked up 105 Each Key or Semi Key CGC Graded Comics, some $80-$100 Books that are 9.0's, 9.2's, 9.4's & 9.6's for as low as $9.99 and $14.99 with $10-$12 Shipping. It costs alone $37 to Grade one Comic before 1975, not even mentioning the cost of the book. I also have been focusing on Silver Age Keys in Raw, if you know what your doing, and the Seller provides Good Pictures/Scans, and you aren't afraid for a little Gamble, you can have some fun. I have about 2500-3000 Comics now. In probably 500 Raw transactions like this in the last year/half, I feel I screwed myself maybe 2-3 times, and the Book is still mostly worth what I paid for it! I only Collect Marvel and DC and a few others, but don't do the independent thing.
Just a few I've Picked up this year:
YeeHaw!
Neil
What are the 20 comics every collector should have?
Neil, it's first Lilith on those. 1st Drac in Marvel was Tomb O Dracula #1
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Speaking of Comics and Baseball here is the recap and Box Score from 1976's DC Super-Stars #10
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
I stand corrected, but I knew that, just put it down wrong!
YeeHaw!
Neil