Totally random CAC submission of PCGS 1938-D Buffs, mostly MS66 - results posted in OP!

Lakesammman

So, how random??

I bought these because I needed the slabs for my PCGS generation set. They were NOT selected for eye appeal, upgrade potential, or any other reason.

So, of the randomly purchased slabs, 29 of which were submitted recently, how many do you think stickered?? Results were posted today.

ANSWER:

17 "passed". I'm assuming all are green?? 12 rejected.

I'm pleasently surprised, given how they were acquired!

Questions re: Generations - some of us look at the labels differently than PCGS does. I include the 4 "retro" labels (white, doily, green, blue), for example, whereas PCGS doesn't. Styles might be a better description than generations.

U1chicago

random guess of 14

humanssuck

10

davewesen

CAC says they have stickered 42% submitted. Buffalo nickels have grade inflated more than some other series.

I will guess 20.

Jacques_Loungecoque

I’ll be the pessimist. 6.

PeakRarities

23-25

Manifest_Destiny

Well, if CAC standards are true, then 2/3rds, so 20. But the "we sticker A & B coins" has never been true, so I think 7.

DisneyFan

Given that these were MS66 1938-Ds - six or seven

Crepidodera

4

jughead1893

7

ChrisH821

SurfinxHI

9

Walkerlover

I say 40% since this is a completely random blind submission so 12.

jmlanzaf

This is the oddest game yet. I randomly bought some coins you can't see for their holders. How many stickered?

Has anyone taken 19 yet?

jmlanzaf

@Manifest_Destiny said:
Well, if CAC standards are true, then 2/3rds, so 20. But the "we sticker A & B coins" has never been true, so I think 7.

Why isn't it true?

The confusion is more over the existence of D&F coins and the distribution in the bands. [Not to mention the undergraded gold stickers. ] They never claimed to be stickering 2/3 of coins. People just interpret the ABC that way.

pointfivezero

Knowing the OP’s Midas Touch, I’ll go big at 23 green and 4 gold.

Tim

Proofmorgan

8

ajaan

15

coinkat

So are all 29 coins 1938-D Buffs? So how many different generation holders are there incorporated into this exercise?

Grading has a subjective component so handicapping the outcome just has a different level of subjectivity. Good luck and hopefully you obtained the outcome you were seeking.

291fifth

17. Even though you say they were not carefully selected I suspect your hobby experience would yield a better than 40% result regardless.

FlyingAl

0, I'll take the outlandish chance they've all been to CAC and failed.

Manifest_Destiny

@jmlanzaf said:

@Manifest_Destiny said:
Well, if CAC standards are true, then 2/3rds, so 20. But the "we sticker A & B coins" has never been true, so I think 7.

Why isn't it true?

The confusion is more over the existence of D&F coins and the distribution in the bands. [Not to mention the undergraded gold stickers. ] They never claimed to be stickering 2/3 of coins. People just interpret the ABC that way.

It's interpreted that way because if you assume ABC coins exist, then the natural distribution would be equal in theory. No one ever claimed that 50% of any population is "C" coins. No one ever claimed that D&F coins exist.

This is from CAC themselves.

So again, if the distribution is equal, and the default assumption must be that it is, then CAC would sticker 2/3rds of any random sample of coins.

They clearly don't though. 42% was mentioned up thread and that represents coins prescreened for quality, so a random sample would be less than that, say 20%.

So, now we're back to your ABCDE theory, which has no basis in anything represented to the public. However, if they only sticker 20%, then maybe that's the standard they actually use but don't disclose. The alternative would be that CAC doesn't regard ABC coins to be equally distributed, with "C" coins representing 75-80% of any random population.

Either way, the ABC criteria for stickering coins is clearly BS. The bottom line is that they sticker coins JA likes and nothing more.

LeeBone

12

Connecticoin

20 with 5 gold

ldhair

11

jesbroken

10

BuffaloIronTail

23

Pete

lermish

@FlyingAl said:
0, I'll take the outlandish chance they've all been to CAC and failed.

I like this guess. So I'll guess 29.

Copperindian

13

PeakRarities

@Manifest_Destiny said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@Manifest_Destiny said:
Well, if CAC standards are true, then 2/3rds, so 20. But the "we sticker A & B coins" has never been true, so I think 7.

Why isn't it true?

The confusion is more over the existence of D&F coins and the distribution in the bands. [Not to mention the undergraded gold stickers. ] They never claimed to be stickering 2/3 of coins. People just interpret the ABC that way.

It's interpreted that way because if you assume ABC coins exist, then the natural distribution would be equal in theory. No one ever claimed that 50% of any population is "C" coins. No one ever claimed that D&F coins exist.

This is from CAC themselves.

So again, if the distribution is equal, and the default assumption must be that it is, then CAC would sticker 2/3rds of any random sample of coins.

They clearly don't though. 42% was mentioned up thread and that represents coins prescreened for quality, so a random sample would be less than that, say 20%.

So, now we're back to your ABCDE theory, which has no basis in anything represented to the public. However, if they only sticker 20%, then maybe that's the standard they actually use but don't disclose. The alternative would be that CAC doesn't regard ABC coins to be equally distributed, with "C" coins representing 75-80% of any random population.

Either way, the ABC criteria for stickering coins is clearly BS. The bottom line is that they sticker coins JA likes and nothing more.

The overall sticker percentage is irrelevant. This is a cheap coin that most probably wouldn’t even consider spending the money to get stickered. It’s like how it’s easy to get green and gold stickers on the majority of old holder merc dimes. On the opposite end of the spectrum you have saints in 66 or pioneer where the sticker percentage might be 5% total. The average is skewed by both extremes.

Manifest_Destiny

@DeplorableDan said:

@Manifest_Destiny said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@Manifest_Destiny said:
Well, if CAC standards are true, then 2/3rds, so 20. But the "we sticker A & B coins" has never been true, so I think 7.

Why isn't it true?

The confusion is more over the existence of D&F coins and the distribution in the bands. [Not to mention the undergraded gold stickers. ] They never claimed to be stickering 2/3 of coins. People just interpret the ABC that way.

It's interpreted that way because if you assume ABC coins exist, then the natural distribution would be equal in theory. No one ever claimed that 50% of any population is "C" coins. No one ever claimed that D&F coins exist.

This is from CAC themselves.

So again, if the distribution is equal, and the default assumption must be that it is, then CAC would sticker 2/3rds of any random sample of coins.

They clearly don't though. 42% was mentioned up thread and that represents coins prescreened for quality, so a random sample would be less than that, say 20%.

So, now we're back to your ABCDE theory, which has no basis in anything represented to the public. However, if they only sticker 20%, then maybe that's the standard they actually use but don't disclose. The alternative would be that CAC doesn't regard ABC coins to be equally distributed, with "C" coins representing 75-80% of any random population.

Either way, the ABC criteria for stickering coins is clearly BS. The bottom line is that they sticker coins JA likes and nothing more.

The overall sticker percentage is irrelevant. This is a cheap coin that most probably wouldn’t even consider spending the money to get stickered. It’s like how it’s easy to get green and gold stickers on the majority of old holder merc dimes. On the opposite end of the spectrum you have saints in 66 or pioneer where the sticker percentage might be 5% total. The average is skewed by both extremes.

Understood, but my point is, it should matter. CAC advertises it stickers A & B coins, on an ABC scale. The implication is, they're distributed equally. Take the 66 Saints for example - Are 95% of them "C" coins? That's how it works out according to CAC standards. In the end, it's all highly subjective despite the "scientific" ABC criteria. They should sticker them JAL (JA Likes). At least that's more up front in my opinion.

Connecticoin

@Connecticoin said:
20 with 5 gold

To add: I think the 5 gold ones will come from the pool of rare holders (i.e. "PCGS white 108 rattlers" and "no bar code white and black NGC fattys), while the high sticker percent for the rest result from the subject coins being 38-D Buffalos (of which most MS coins are very nice), and the OPs capability of selecting nice for the grade coins (despite his comments to the contrary).

logger7

Percentages of cac success is higher at 66 and above, so I'd guess 2/3 success with a couple couple golds where the upgrade is not that advantageous.

CircCam

38-D buffs are so plentiful that I’m going to guess the nicest ones made the mediocre ones look drab. I’m guessing 10 green, 1 gold.

MrEureka

27

keyman64

5

braddick

15 green.
Two gold.

AngryTurtle

@Lakesammman said:

So, of the randomly purchased slabs, 29 of which were submitted recently, how many do you think stickered?? Results were posted today.

29? That's a lot of generations!

Grading 1938-D's are a specialty in their own right, since there are so many of them, so I will go out on a limb and say
0 Gold, 10 Green

Coinscratch

24

Lakesammman

Answer in the OP!

Enjoying Long Beach, but haven't found anything to buy yet!

Jacques_Loungecoque

Almost 60% is a rather significant increase from the average. 👍🏻