The years a new player joined the 500 Home Run Club and will there be an upcoming drought?

1948_Swell_Robinson

These are the years someone joined the 500 home run club.

1929

1940
1945

1960
1965
1967
1967
1968

1970
1971
1971
1978

1984
1987

1996
1999

2001
2003
2003
2004
2007
2007
2007
2008
2009

2014
2015

2021

Stanton sits at 415 and is 34 years old. Who knows with him and his health in conjunction with his quick decline.
Trout is next and again, he can't stay healthy.

There could be a historical drought between 500 home run club entrants not seen since the earliest entries into the club.

1948_Swell_Robinson

For some context, Eddie Murray had 333 career home runs after age 32 and he barely made it while playing full time until age 40. So guys like Freeman, Arenado, Harper, Machado are all in that realm.

Judge hits them far more frequently than all of those guys so he looks to be the best shot after Stanton, even though Judge had a late start and is injured often too.

Schwarber has a shot.

Basebal21

Stanton, Trout, Harper and Machado are the only ones that really have a good chance. Obviously Stanton and Trout will have to find ways to stay healthier but both can put up 30+ hr years even when they miss a bunch of time. Harper and Machado might need to mix in a 40 year but should get there if they stay healthy. Arenado wouldnt surprise me if he did but its a small chance.

Theres definitely going to be a drought after that barring rule changes or MLB really messing with the balls again. The Tatis, Vlady, Acuna group of players is probably the next time its a discussion. Even with that group Acuna with the two ACL surgeries now might not last long enough to get there

bgr

What about Betts?

I like Harper and Machado for 500 best. My 20-1 bets.

Basebal21

Betts at best if he hits 48 his year will be 32 when he reaches 300. His birthday is in October. Schwarber has a better chance of getting therre than Betts does since hes a year younger with a March birthday. Neither has a legitimate chance but isnt impossible

craig44

I hadnt looked at the list of upcoming players nearing 500. I think with injury histories of many of them it could be a while.