One million simulation test...

cohodk

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/million-simulations-show-us-debt-is-on-unsustainable-path

A Million Simulations, One Verdict for US Economy: Debt Danger Ahead https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-01/us-government-debt-risk-a-million-simulations-show-danger-ahead

derryb

"Bloomberg Economics ran a million forecast simulations on the US debt outlook. 88% of them show borrowing on an unsustainable path."

I'd like to see the 12% that show US borrowing on a sustainable path. LOL
It ain't rocket science.

Is not this the same conclusion reached by others here that you have repeatedly attacked?

cohodk

@derryb said:
"Bloomberg Economics ran a million forecast simulations on the US debt outlook. 88% of them show borrowing on an unsustainable path."

I'd like to see the 12% that show US borrowing on a sustainable path. LOL
It ain't rocket science.

Is not this the same conclusion reached by others here that you have repeatedly attacked?

I've always agreed with the unsustainability, but not the timing, or repercussions. Our debates in this have been going on for 2 decades--we still are and the world hasnt ended-- but the drunken spending and atrocious fiscal response to crisis during 2019-2022 that have advanced the time-line. What kind of household cuts income and increases spending?--one that has experience in bankruptcy court.
All is not lost, and remedies abound, but we are weak.

Attacking, if that's what you want to call it, goes both ways.

pmbug

derryb

@cohodk said:

@derryb said:
"Bloomberg Economics ran a million forecast simulations on the US debt outlook. 88% of them show borrowing on an unsustainable path."

I'd like to see the 12% that show US borrowing on a sustainable path. LOL
It ain't rocket science.

Is not this the same conclusion reached by others here that you have repeatedly attacked?

I've always agreed with the unsustainability, but not the timing, or repercussions. Our debates in this have been going on for 2 decades--we still are and the world hasnt ended-- but the drunken spending and atrocious fiscal response to crisis during 2019-2022 that have advanced the time-line.

And for 2 decades has not the price of gold been telling us it is a slow motion train wreck that picked up speed in 2008?

Overdate

If the deficit is going to continue to grow anyway, one solution would be to begin issuing unbacked U.S. Notes again to fund the deficit. We would still have inflation from the increase in the money supply, but at least we wouldn't be adding to the debt and the interest we are forced to pay on it.

And any consequences would show up quickly and not left as a legacy to our grandchildren.

Goldminers

@Overdate said:
If the deficit is going to continue to grow anyway, one solution would be to begin issuing unbacked U.S. Notes again to fund the deficit. We would still have inflation from the increase in the money supply, but at least we wouldn't be adding to the debt and the interest we are forced to pay on it.

And any consequences would show up quickly and not left as a legacy to our grandchildren.

This is an interesting idea. Depending on their issue, they might even still be redeemable in precious metals. There are only around 200 million of them left in circulation, but they do not count as US debt as stated above.

The beauty of the "greenbacks" is the government could issue them directly and even get creative and use some of the old designs. These would be very popular with currency collectors. Janet Yellen should see there would be a demand for these in spite of her affiliation with the Fed and depending even charge a premium for collectable versions.

derryb

US debt does not matter to those who create it and at the same time periodically approve higher limits. They grow it on trees. At least in Monopoly there is a limit to the amount of paper money. Because of this Park Place still costs the same.

cohodk

@derryb said:

@cohodk said:

@derryb said:
"Bloomberg Economics ran a million forecast simulations on the US debt outlook. 88% of them show borrowing on an unsustainable path."

I'd like to see the 12% that show US borrowing on a sustainable path. LOL
It ain't rocket science.

Is not this the same conclusion reached by others here that you have repeatedly attacked?

I've always agreed with the unsustainability, but not the timing, or repercussions. Our debates in this have been going on for 2 decades--we still are and the world hasnt ended-- but the drunken spending and atrocious fiscal response to crisis during 2019-2022 that have advanced the time-line.

And for 2 decades has not the price of gold been telling us it is a slow motion train wreck that picked up speed in 2008?

No more so than the price of equities and real estate has been. Or hamburger or used cars.

MsMorrisine

don't need a simulation to know