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One million simulation test...

cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,619 ✭✭✭✭✭
edited April 2, 2024 6:35PM in Precious Metals
Excuses are tools of the ignorant

Knowledge is the enemy of fear

Comments

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,186 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 3, 2024 1:47AM

    "Bloomberg Economics ran a million forecast simulations on the US debt outlook. 88% of them show borrowing on an unsustainable path."

    I'd like to see the 12% that show US borrowing on a sustainable path. LOL
    It ain't rocket science.

    Is not this the same conclusion reached by others here that you have repeatedly attacked?

    Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,619 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 3, 2024 3:22AM

    @derryb said:
    "Bloomberg Economics ran a million forecast simulations on the US debt outlook. 88% of them show borrowing on an unsustainable path."

    I'd like to see the 12% that show US borrowing on a sustainable path. LOL
    It ain't rocket science.

    Is not this the same conclusion reached by others here that you have repeatedly attacked?

    I've always agreed with the unsustainability, but not the timing, or repercussions. Our debates in this have been going on for 2 decades--we still are and the world hasnt ended-- but the drunken spending and atrocious fiscal response to crisis during 2019-2022 that have advanced the time-line. What kind of household cuts income and increases spending?--one that has experience in bankruptcy court.
    All is not lost, and remedies abound, but we are weak.

    Attacking, if that's what you want to call it, goes both ways. ;)

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • pmbugpmbug Posts: 69 ✭✭

    Yelling at clouds on pmbug.com

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,186 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 3, 2024 7:19AM

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    "Bloomberg Economics ran a million forecast simulations on the US debt outlook. 88% of them show borrowing on an unsustainable path."

    I'd like to see the 12% that show US borrowing on a sustainable path. LOL
    It ain't rocket science.

    Is not this the same conclusion reached by others here that you have repeatedly attacked?

    I've always agreed with the unsustainability, but not the timing, or repercussions. Our debates in this have been going on for 2 decades--we still are and the world hasnt ended-- but the drunken spending and atrocious fiscal response to crisis during 2019-2022 that have advanced the time-line.

    And for 2 decades has not the price of gold been telling us it is a slow motion train wreck that picked up speed in 2008?

    Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar

  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 6,935 ✭✭✭✭✭

    If the deficit is going to continue to grow anyway, one solution would be to begin issuing unbacked U.S. Notes again to fund the deficit. We would still have inflation from the increase in the money supply, but at least we wouldn't be adding to the debt and the interest we are forced to pay on it.

    And any consequences would show up quickly and not left as a legacy to our grandchildren.

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

  • GoldminersGoldminers Posts: 3,585 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Overdate said:
    If the deficit is going to continue to grow anyway, one solution would be to begin issuing unbacked U.S. Notes again to fund the deficit. We would still have inflation from the increase in the money supply, but at least we wouldn't be adding to the debt and the interest we are forced to pay on it.

    And any consequences would show up quickly and not left as a legacy to our grandchildren.

    This is an interesting idea. Depending on their issue, they might even still be redeemable in precious metals. There are only around 200 million of them left in circulation, but they do not count as US debt as stated above.

    The beauty of the "greenbacks" is the government could issue them directly and even get creative and use some of the old designs. These would be very popular with currency collectors. Janet Yellen should see there would be a demand for these in spite of her affiliation with the Fed and depending even charge a premium for collectable versions.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,186 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 4, 2024 7:37AM

    US debt does not matter to those who create it and at the same time periodically approve higher limits. They grow it on trees. At least in Monopoly there is a limit to the amount of paper money. Because of this Park Place still costs the same.

    Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,619 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited April 4, 2024 4:32AM

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    "Bloomberg Economics ran a million forecast simulations on the US debt outlook. 88% of them show borrowing on an unsustainable path."

    I'd like to see the 12% that show US borrowing on a sustainable path. LOL
    It ain't rocket science.

    Is not this the same conclusion reached by others here that you have repeatedly attacked?

    I've always agreed with the unsustainability, but not the timing, or repercussions. Our debates in this have been going on for 2 decades--we still are and the world hasnt ended-- but the drunken spending and atrocious fiscal response to crisis during 2019-2022 that have advanced the time-line.

    And for 2 decades has not the price of gold been telling us it is a slow motion train wreck that picked up speed in 2008?

    No more so than the price of equities and real estate has been. Or hamburger or used cars.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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