Gold markets open $2260
Mike59
Posts: 319 ✭✭✭
Not sure if this is Yea or Nay yet. It’s been a wonderful ride but maybe a bit 2 fast to quick. It’s still a small yea right now. Thoughts ?
MIKE B.
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Every asset on the planet (minus gutter metal) has gone bananas. The Metal of kings just following suit.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
$2276 now
Silver is performing just like gold in the last 6 months - up ~25%.
$2,285 up $47 in overnight.
Cha ching (for now)
How should I think about the potential performance of physical vs. miners over the next 1-3 years?
Nothing is as expensive as free money.
How should I think about the potential performance of physical vs. miners over the next 1-3 years?
Perhaps goldminers will comment on this question. I think he has made some good comments on this in other threads.
I knew it would happen.
Mining is traditionally a bad way to capitalize on the rising gold price. Goldminers actually worked for one/a few....he can tell you if like the energy companies the mining stocks have "gotten religion" or at least if the gold miners have (it appears the diversified miners like BHP, RIO, VALE, FCX are better positioned).
There was so much easy money made in the 1970's in gold and silver mining stocks that people assumed the economics would always work in a rising metals environment and that was a false assumption.
Mining is at the mercy of inflation and its affect on production.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
This time is different. Gold price is being driven by foreign central banks. As long as they continue to revolt against the dollar, the floor on gold will keep climbing. Sparks are really going to fly if Wall Street actually jumps on the bandwagon.
Yelling at clouds on pmbug.com
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Mining stocks are getting attention again. This gold price runup is much more significant for their profits, vs last quarter. They will have major quarterly earnings improvements and their stocks will jump even more.
Production costs do go up with variable energy, oil, labor, royalties to government, and misc. inflationary costs, but gold has broken out faster than current inflation. The last time this happened, all of a sudden AI algos and advisors jump on the miner bandwagon. They can move up fast and dramatic from here.
Silver really broke out of its dead zone and there is huge momentum and significant short covering going on. Given all the other geopolitical issues, debt, etc., I remain long in all areas of the precious metal markets and have been for a long time. I like all gold coins, modern, classic, and 100-year-old foreign. Junior gold miners are a great leveraged tactical play as well.
If gold stays above $2200, miners will do very well from here. A few heavy green boxes of so-called gutter are not bad for traction either.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
More at the mercy of CAPX. That's been the bugaboo, though input cost inflation has certainly been a sideeffect of rising CAPX.
Goldminers, the $64,000 question is whether the miners go on a spending spree with CAPX, dilutive M&A, etc.
Were you ever privvy to those kinds of discussions ? When would someone hear talk from the geologists or the suits that if gold maintained a 25%/50%/100%/whatever up move in price...that it would pay for the company to do an acquisition and/or plan some major CAPX expansion ?
The problem of course is that past rises in the gold price were soon reversed. Very rarely did you have a multi-year price boost and then see the price hold near the highs....it would always retrace and the CAPX and M&A deals were always based on a rising price or at least on a price near the highs. Ergo, the companies got burned.
My comments relate to the 1-3 year question of miners vs physical. Miners are likely to do very well with this level of gold pricing for the next several earnings reports. Even if gold stays flat the miners will go up for a while.
Newmont finished their big Newcrest merger last year before the recent gold run up and the stock was hit hard when dividends were lowered and earnings fell, however, they are now consolidating and selling off high cost of production assets. Timing is everything and for a while NEM will show some impressive earnings reports and the stock will be rewarded. Seven days up in a row shows the momentum shift and it gets investor attention. Of course, they will also report higher reserves at these prices which boosts share prices.
When the miners do eventually announce big new capital projects or mergers at these much higher gold prices, it is time to sell them again. These are big cycles. Gold and miners are behaving like 2011 to 2012 again.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
GM, if I am right and we are headed for $3,000 then it is early....sort of like 2004 with a few more years to go.
We'll see...
This gold bull hopes and preys that Cramer doesn't jump on the gold bandwagon because then we are truly doomed!
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
Can gold calm down and go back to like $1200 so I can start buying it again?
I'm just not comfortable with the levels precious metals have gotten to and it feels like it should not be sustainable.
I don't think I've bought gold other than jewelry and some gold type coins since about 2017, or whenever it was $1600-ish.
Collector, occasional seller
I trust you are joking about going back to $1,200.
That's a pretty big drop, one we had after gold's rapid rise in 2011 which saw a 6-fold boost in 10 years. We have seen only a doubling in 10 years.
I don't know if there is a FMV price for gold, but clearly compared to other commodities or financial instruments it is NOT overvalued or in a bubble. If you go by inflation-adjusted pricing from recent peaks it's not stretched.
Compared to crypto, it's dirt cheap.
You can buy fractional Bitcoin at the current gold spot price. You can't compare 1 coin to 1 oz of gold. What you have to compare is risk/reward of the dollar amount invested. I kinda like taking a little risk for a big reward.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I kinda like taking a little risk for a big reward.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Mathematically sometimes the lottery is a smart bet. If your expected payout for each dollar is more than a dollar it is worth it. Basically like pot odds in poker.
Would you also like housing prices in your area to drop 50% at the same time? So you can buy (another) houses?
There's a point where there are new bases established for many things.
Thanks to how things have been run in the economy lately, don't look for those huge drops that you want to feel more comfortable with.
And, I am about the same as you in that I haven't felt good about buying gold since it was sub $1800ish. Most of it was sub $1300ish for me.
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment