Let's talk $20 Saints in the current market...
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lkenefic
Posts: 8,160 ✭✭✭✭✭
Hello Everyone... I usually post in US Coins so this is a bit of a departure for me. The last time I was seriously considering a $20 Saint was in 2019 (gold ~$1275/oz). "Life" as they say, has a way of intervening and I bought lower denomination gold (half eagle and quarter eagle) instead... then focused on completing a 7070 Type Set. Now that I'm back looking at $20 gold and the prices have taken an historical leap, I'm actually looking at higher graded pieces. The premium over melt doesn't seem that great for MS63 or MS64 pieces... and not much more for common date MS65's.
So, my question to the group: In your past experiences... do accurately graded 65's hold their numismatic value better than lower graded pieces? I never really looked at higher graded pieces since they seemed to command more of a premium over melt... but gold was relatively "cheap" back then. Also, I'm looking at this for a Box of 20 Type piece... is it better to have an uncommon date at a lower grade or a common date at a higher grade?
As always, thanks in advance for your replies...
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an ms65 was always a favorite to me. what are you happy with (respectfully)
If you can get roadrunner to surface, he could give you a definitive answer.
I knew it would happen.
I would choose a MS 65 CAC example. My "one per century" set currently has a NGC MS 63 example purchased as bullion some years ago that I would like to replace with a MS 65 example in PCGS/CAC. My goal is an attractive coin for the 20th century - holding its numismatic value, which I anticipate, will be a bonus.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
I've purchased many $20 Double eagles but I'm just a bullion guy. Now seems like a good time to purchase higher grade "numismatic" examples as premiums are somewhat reasonable. If you can get a 100+ year old MS62 or higher coin for the same price as a modern bullion coin I'd definitely go with the Saint/Lib. I certainly wouldn't be concerned if there was a stupid little sticker on the slab but to each their own. "Collectors" these days seem to worry more about stickers and plastic than the coin they are buying (flashback beanie babies, 1980-90s baseball cards etc.). If you can find slabbed MS62+ at melt I'd certainly be a buyer. For your 7070 type set, why not splurge a little, personally I'd go for the higher grade common date over the lower grade not so common but that's just me. Good luck and RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
I may have posted this in a thread somewhere in the U.S. Coins section -- but going back a few decades the premium to bullion for MS-65's has ranged from 15% to 700% during bubbles/spikes.
You're not paying a huge premium right now for MS-65's but it could go a bit lower here or meander. But you don't have the risk others did when they paid $3,000 and gold was $450.
FWIW, I think there are not that many relevant data points in this chart that I think it is NOT super-useful to predicting the future...but it DOES give you a reference point for downside risk relative to historical norms...or abnorms.
Here's how I see it: premiums get NARROWER for a common Saint (or other pre-1933 gold) as the price goes HIGHER. When gold was $300/ounce for years only 20+ years ago nobody was selling MS-65 Saints for $350 I'm pretty sure.
Buy dirt cheap. That's where it got dug from. Generic is all too common. Grade matters tomorrow. Step up today.
You have maybe 1,000 registry players, tops.
You have maybe 25,000 Type or partial collectors, tops.
But you have hundreds of thousands -- maybe MILLIONS -- of investors/potential investors for bullion-substitute Saints and Liberty's.
So, with gold ~$2150/oz... would you pay a $300 premium for an MS65 Saint, or are you more comfortable with a $75 premium for that common date 63? Since I'm more of a Type Collector, I'm comfortable with the additional premium for a higher graded piece...
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I guess the spread between 65 and 63 is somewhat more than $225? But, for most people, the grade difference is quite noticeable. I certainly wouldn’t fault you if you went for the 65! Of course, if you have time and inclination, you could search for a particularly attractive 64, which could be priced closer to a 63 than a 65.
Thanks for your input... yeah, 65s definitely look a heck of a lot better than 63s! The spread between the two grades is right around $225 so we're in the same ballpark... within 10%.
Successful BST transactions with: SilverEagles92; Ahrensdad; Smitty; GregHansen; Lablade; Mercury10c; copperflopper; whatsup; KISHU1; scrapman1077, crispy, canadanz, smallchange, robkool, Mission16, ranshdow, ibzman350, Fallguy, Collectorcoins, SurfinxHI, jwitten, Walkerguy21D, dsessom.
Stretch for the 65, especially if this is a single example for a type coin. Mine is a 64+ CAC, which I bought as a 64 CAC a couple years ago. I probably should have sprung for a full gem. Be patient and find one you love w/blazing luster.
Nothing is as expensive as free money.
Thanks everyone for your input... I ended up getting this one. Pardon my crumby pics. I'm set up for imaging raw copper and gold inside of plastic is a whole 'nuther bird!
Successful BST transactions with: SilverEagles92; Ahrensdad; Smitty; GregHansen; Lablade; Mercury10c; copperflopper; whatsup; KISHU1; scrapman1077, crispy, canadanz, smallchange, robkool, Mission16, ranshdow, ibzman350, Fallguy, Collectorcoins, SurfinxHI, jwitten, Walkerguy21D, dsessom.
Nice coin, enjoy !!
Just a question IKen.....you said you are a Type Collector....is this your one and only Saint you will get....or would you add another or a few others over time ?
Nice pick! I was going to recommend a 65 as well.
I am doing the type set and wanted 66 on mine, ended up with a 64 but, my 64 is a slightly better date so that makes it work for me. 👍
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Not to be critical but I question the 65 grade given the number of dings and the spots on the reverse.
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It does have a couple minor "copper" spots on the reverse, but overall I think it is a little above average for a graded MS-65.
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Looks like a 65 to me. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
There are dings in the rays, right thigh and abdomen that would drop it from a 65 in my opinion.
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I can only say this:
graded, holdered generic gold of low MS and common dates are not trading with a numismatic premium anymore. the premiums you are seeing are markup/spread of melt+ . They are bullion now.
As a general rule, you are PROBABLY correct as the premium is miniscule.
However, I purchased an MS-63 1915-S at spot gold price during FUN 2020....I sold it for a 15% premium (~$300) late last year as it had an OGH.