Three Right Fielders, one a legend, one severely underrated, and one severely overrated. One not HOF
1948_Swell_Robinson
Posts: 1,691 ✭✭✭✭
Clemente, Dwight Evans, Ichiro
Plate Appearances:
10,212
10,569
10,734
So far all look the same...
OPS+
130
127
107
Ichiro clearly outclassed with a 107 OPS+.
Run Expectancy which includes baserunning and Men on Base Hitting:
451 Clemente
384 Dewey
146 Ichiro
Ichiro clearly outclassed.
Win Probability Added
Clemente 48.1
Dewey 35.2
Ichiro 11.9
Ichiro clearly outclassed.
All three right fielders known with a good arm and good defense. There is no amount of RF defense that can overcome that huge offensive gap that Ichiro is lacking....and that isn't even considering that none of those measurements above account for the abundance of infield singles and short left field singles that Ichiro had that did not move actual baserunners along as much as the other two. So those offensive gaps are even greater.
Comments
Dwight Evans should be in HOF I believe.
However I’m not sure ichiro should be compared to those two players.
His value was in getting on base and scoring runs. And he scored over 100 runs for 8 years in a row.
He is a baseball player and most certainly should be compared to them. It just happens to be that he is an inferior baseball player than Evans.
His Job is to create runs, not just get on base. Getting on base is half the job.
That's the thing, you say his "job" was to get on base and he did not do that at an elite level. He actually was worse at getting on base than Evans was. He was worse than Tony Phillips at getting on base and most people here never heard of Tony Phillips.
With 762 plate appearances in a season you better score 100 runs. He should have been scoring 130 a year with that many plate appearances, in that high scoring era, and being that was his "Job".
Ichiro led the league in plate appearances four times and in the top five ten times. Yet his best finishes in runs scored were 2nd, 6th, 7th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 9th. That's it. No other top ten finishes.
Phillips actually averaged 97 runs per 162 games compared to Ichiro's 87, and Phillips played more years where runs scored were a little harder to come by.
Phillips also had a higher OPS+ 109 to 107.
Adam Dunn reached base safely at a higher rate than Ichiro too.
Okay you convinced me. 😀
I’m a huge Clemente fan, have a lot of respect for how Dwight Evans played the game, and not so much a fan of Ichiro although he brought a lot of attention to the game.
Ichiro also has 509 stolen bases, so he was in scoring position approximately 967 times while Dwight was on second or third only 634 times.
Evans also hit 268 more home runs, so he drove himself in, in those at bats.
Evans apparently had better guys hitting behind him. To fault Ichiro here is unfair.
I also agree that comparing lead off type hitters to clean up type hitters is not the best idea.
Appears Ichiro was a better fielder than Evans too.
Evans has a great case for HOF inclusion, certainly better than some of the recent choices.
Evans was better. It isn't anoyone's fault. Doesn't matter what each style was. Evans was just better than Ichiro. It is the hit totals that fools people into believing otherwise. Also, driving oneself in is a good thing, not a knock like being presented above. Ichiro was horrible at driving himself in and not good at moving runners along efficently with his bat.
Here is another that did the "job" better than Ichiro. Bret Butler.
Butler 110 OPS+
Ichiro 107 OPS+
Butler 187 Run Expectancy
Ichiro 146
Butler 19.1 WPA
Ichiro 11.9.
Bret Butler scored runs better than Ichiro as well. Butler scored 99 runs per 162 games. Ichiro 87.
Butler played CF too. WAR overstates Ichiro's defensive value in monumental terms. Ichiro is not as good as everyone believes just because he was punch and judy infield singles hitter that accumulated higher hit totals, partly because he was placed as leadoff hitter almost every game so he can accumulate more PA's just by that facet. He was not as good a table setter as other lesser known players in his era or nearby era.
Add that his abundance infield singles (747 for his career) are not of the same value as other's outfield singles, then all those numbers make Ichiro even worse, even in the advanced measurements.
Ichiro isn't as good as Kenny Lofton either.
Did you know that in Ichiro's record setting year where he had 262 hits, Ichiro reached base 315 times in 762 plate appearances and scored 101 runs and everyone gets all excited about that season because of his "hits".
Yet, in 1993 Tony Phillips reached base 313 times in 702 plate appearances and he scored 114 runs...and nobody even knows that occurred.
Bobby Abreu scored more runs than Ichiro and in 700 less plate appearances. Abreu was a far better hitter than Ichiro. It isn't even close. Far, far, better hitter.
Abreu 570 Run Expectancy
Ichiro 146..
There is no amount of defense that can close that monumental offensive gap, so relying on those invalid flawed defense stats to do that doesn't work.
Billy Williams was also a lot better than Ichiro, a lot better!
Billy Williams 62 WPA
Ichiro 11.9
In fact Billy Williams was so good he’s getting a place in my topps 50 years of hall of famers set 1952-2001.🥳
No room in my set for the overrated Ichiro!
Nice set to make.
I am not a fan of the singles hitter.
That being said, I am a bit surprised at the criticism Ichiro gets.
He didn't get started in the majors until he was 27, yet his first 12 seasons he almost never missed a game, averaged 217 hits, leading the league 7 times, 100 runs scored and 38 stolen bases while winning 10 gold gloves.
He rarely walked and his SLG was pretty low as well, but so were guys' like Rod Carew and Pete Rose (I don't love those guys either, Rose couldn't run and Carew didn't hit the ball any harder than Ichiro).
I wonder what Ichiro's numbers would look like had he started when he was 21-22 years old like Rod and Pete.
Ichiro was a hair below Bret Butler, and he is a singles hitter too. So even if we did a misguided evaluation of only comparing him to other singles hitters, Ichiro is still vastly overrated. However, if you say Bret Butler and Ichiro are equal hitters and both worse than Dwight Evans, then maybe Ichiro isn't overrated at that point.
Tony Phillips too is equal or a hair better hitter than Ichiro.
Ichiro well below Carew and Rose as hitters. They were more than singles hitters and in a different era too.
Ichiro may not have been drafted if he started in United States with no prior pro japan experience for teams to look upon. He also may have been drafted and languished in the minors with no power.
Or, he would have been like most, gotten a few at bats at age 21, a few more at age 22, and full time by age 24(but not in his prime yet)
Bobby Abreu didn't get full time at bats until age 24, and he is far, far better hitter than Ichiro even if Ichiro had three more seasons equal to his first three in MLB.
It is silly to give only Ichiro that benefit anyway.
PS it took Bret Butler until age 26 to have his first season of full time at bats. We should just ignore his age 21-26 years as well and assume he would have been as good as he was from age 28-32.
Ichiro is overrated mostly by his hit total and fans have a knee jerk reaction to get all wet over hit totals. Hit totals is a poor method of evaluation when it ignores everything else.
Butler, Phillips, and Lofton were all better hitters despite having lower hit totals.
Let's look at the guys listed that were lead off type hitters;
Brett Butler, NOT a better hitter, Ichiro had both better BA and SLG. Butler walked more, but was caught stealing 50% of the time. Played CF, but no GG, not as good defensively. NOT better than Ichiro.
Tony Phillips, (ridiculous to have to look at this guy) not as good a hitter as Butler. Horrible base stealer. Played primarily in LF and 2B. Not a great defensive player. He walked a lot. NOPE.
Kenny Lofton, getting closer here. Kenny has a better SLG, was a great base stealer. He also got a late start. Didn't play as many games per year or for career. I could call this a tie.
Pete Rose, (most overrated player ever) was a slightly better hitter than Ichiro, but couldn't steal a base to save his life and was at best an average fielder. Ichiro much better.
Rod Carew, slightly better hitter (I saw his Twins career, a LOT of his hits were bunts and flares into short left field). Not a great base stealer at 50%. Played most of his career at 1B, was NOT a superb 2nd baseman. Ichiro better overall.
Of all these players, Ichiro was the best defensively, the best at stealing bases, second best for average, middle of the group in SLG. He was the worst at drawing walks. He also apparently had worse hitters behind him, as he didn't score as many runs, I don't see how this can be his fault.
Go ahead and also ignore the fact that he got a later start than any of these guys, yet played more games than all of them except for Rose. Ichiro's first 4 years his SLG was .443 and he batted .340. Realistically he should have at least 4 more years like this had he played in the MLB.
To say he wouldn't have made it because of his lack of power is silly. None of these guys had any power.
He wasn't the best hitter of this group, (Carew was, then Lofton) but he was the best defender and base stealer. He also was, by far, the guy who showed up every day. The best ability is availability.
Lofton could be considered a better all around player, but none of the other guys.
I don't really like any of these guys.
Ichiro gets lots of hobby love, but a player who gets not nearly as much but was a much better player was Wade Boggs.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
@JoeBanzai BUTLER and Phillips both had better OPS+ than Ichiro. All table setters. Just because someone doesn't understand the value of a base on balls, or the negative value of an out made, doesn't diminish the value of Butler or Phillips. Both better hitters than Ichiro.
Run Expectancy already accounts for the base stealing as well.
There are people out there that will say Ichiro is better hitter than Boggs because Ichiro had more career hits and missed years due to Japan. They won't recognize the OB%.
Banzai- neither butler or carew were caught stealing 50% of the time.
To be clear, this isn't a knock against non power hitters. Rod. Carew was an elite hitter. Wade Boggs was an elite hitter. Eddie Collins was an elite hitter. Tony Gwynn was an elite hitter(though overrated by most). Ichiro was NOT an elite, and his defense value is way over-inflated for catching a lot of routine fly balls.
If one wants to stretch the term elite hitter to include Ichiro, that is fine, but then that makes Bret Butler and Tony Phillips elite hitters too as they had better OPS+ than Ichiro and they scored more 'real runs' at a better rate (the 'real runs' fans always selectively pull out to discard the better stats).
Correct. Butler 68% success rate. Ichiro 81%. However, that is already included in Run Expectancy.
Note that Butler ran the bases better though. Butler took the extra base 54% of the time and Ichiro took the extra base only 41% of the time.
Dwight Evans 48% of the time.
Mis-spoke. Meant that Carew stole 353 but was caught 187. 187 is 50% (more actually) of 353.
I'll rephrase, Ichiro was a much more successful base stealer than either of those guys.
I already stated Ichiro didn't walk as much as he should have.
Those two didn't HIT as well. A walk is seldom as good as a hit. Getting a walk and then getting thrown out at second in s not a good thing.
Phillips OPS+ is a whole 2 points higher.
Butler's OPS is actually lower but OPS+ is inflated by park factor. Harder to walk where he played? Certainly harder to hit, as Ichiro hit 22 points higher and slugged 26 points higher.
I'm sure Phillips caught a lot of routine fly balls in Left Field and fielded a lot of routine ground balls at Second Base.
1 all star game appearance between the two players 10 for Ichiro.
Neither of these guys were anywhere near the player Ichiro was.
What you refuse to acknowledge is the fact that Ichiro got a late start, probably costing him a LOT of numbers.
The "advanced" number systems all seem to give (or take) numbers away from guys because of averages.
What do you think the "average" players numbers were from the age of 22-26?
A walk is credited properly in OPS already. Walking is part of hitting. Hitting isn't just tapping out to the pitcher.
A walk is overrall 2/3 the value of a single. A walk with nobody on base is 100% the value of a single. Etc. Etc. Etc. Been over this a million times and is common f$%kin sense.
A walk is already accounted for properly in OPS+...and completely improperly in what you are saying. OPS+ accounts for era and ballpark.
Ichiro is getting a ballpark boost in his OPS+ even though he is a slap hitter because that park was considered a pitchrs park. In reality, he shouldn't be getting that big a boost. He hit better at home than on the road too.
Your common response is to say that walks aren't as valuable for middle of the order hitters because their job is to drive in runs, but in this case these are leadoff hitters which would mean walks take on MORE value.
Reality is, walks are valuable to middle of the order hitters(when properly valued, certainly not your value), just about a few percent lower than to that of leadoff hitters.
Also, Ichiro's 747 infield singles are not of the same value is outfield singles(Butler has a lot of infield singles too to be fair).
Do you know why an infield single isn't as valuable as an outfield single?
I don't refuse to acknowledge a late start. I already addressed that above. Butler got a late start too. SO did Boggs. So did Phillips.
Ichiro doesn't even get drafted going to High School in the United States. So there is that about your late start.
Just the fact that Butler and Phillips are in the conversation with Ichiro as hitters shows how overrated Ichiro is OFFENSIVELY. ...which includes baserunning. Defensively is a complete guess and Ichiro's defenisve value is way overblown.
Ichiro isn't as good as Evans. You can argue about Phillips and Butler and they make it an argument with Ichiro.
FYI Phillips has a higher OPS than Ichiro, not Just OPS+. So there is that too.
So tired of the complete and utter stupidity baseball fans have with not understanding the value of a walk and how they think it is not "hitting". Overall, accounting for all men on base situations a walk is about 2/3 the value of a single of a single ('hit') that people get all wet for.
Here is a fact about ichiro's 'hits' that make some people cream their pants...
While getting wet whle drooling at Ichiro's lkifetime hit totals and getting angry at not recognizing the proper value of a walk...
Pleae know Ichiro has 1,643 SINGLES with nobody on base in his career. Yes, over half of his career hit totals are singles with the bases empty that have the EXACT value of a base on balls you completely discount and devalue. So every time you devalue a walk, then go ahead and devalue 1,643 of Ichiro's lifetime hits because they are the EXACT same value as a walk.
Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
It is commomn sense. You can go through every men on base situation and see this. Add Ichiro's 500 career hits with RISP that make you wet. I don't discount that. Add his 500 singles with a man on first base were the majority of those only moved the runner up one base like a walk would have. Use some common sense and you will end up with about 2/3 the value of a single for a walk. The play by play analysis has already been combed through all this.
OPS already has this factored in.
So no need to add some contrived value based on a flawed personal opinion or view. It isn't a matter of opinion or view in this case.
In the end, Tony Phillips has a higher lifetime OPS and OPS+ than Ichiro. That tells you right there the true company Ichiro has as a hitter. Period. Yes a HITTER. Pretty valid since they have a similar amount of career plate appearances.
Similar Plate Appearances? Suzuki had 1624 more PA than Phillips.
Here's some facts for your pipe.
Phillips played in 120 games a year, producing 72 runs, 112 hits (81 of them singles), 20 Doubles, 3 Triples, 9 HR, 45 RBI, 10 SB with 7 times caught, 73 walks and WHOPPING 164 Total Bases.
I'm going to assume (since Tony was SO good) that the 26% of the time he didn't play, his replacement was MUCH worse.
Ignoring Ichiro's final 2 years when he didn't play, Ichiro played in 155 games a year, scored 84 runs, had 181 hits (148 singles), 21 Doubles, 6 Triples, 7 HR, drove in 46 runs, stole 30 bases while being caught 7 times, walked only 38 times and had 234 Total Bases.
IF Phillips had played every day MAYBE his value to the team OFFENSIVELY would have been close to what Ichiro provided, but he didn't, he played in 3/4 of his teams games, Ichiro showed up for 96% of the contests.
You can't give Phillips numbers he didn't get, what you should be doing is penalizing him for hurting the team 26% of the time. His 162 game averages are a joke.
This is completely ignoring defense.
Oh yeah, you have decided that all Ichiro could do is catch routine fly balls. 10 Gold Gloves are meaningless.
Also completely ignoring the fact that Ichiro is most likely will be the HOFer who got the latest start to his career of anyone who ever played the game. You're willing to give Phillips credit for numbers he didn't get, yet not Ichiro.
RIGHT, Tony Phillips must be better than Ichiro Suzuki OPS+ Says so. The only way he ever gets in the HOF is if he has a ticket.
This has been quite possibly the most preposterous comparison ever done on these or any boards on any subject in the history of comparisons.
I'll not waste another moment on it.
Have a nice day.
@JoeBanzai
Phillips 109 OPS+
Ichiro 107
Similar enough plate appearanes for ops.
However,
Phillips had 214 runs above average for Run Expectancy
Ichiorhad 146 Runs above average for Run Expectancy
So Phillps created MORE runs in 1,6000 LESS plate appearances...rendering all your convoluted 'stats' above as pointless, and even more damning on how overrated Ichiro is.
Phillips 19 Win Probability Added
Ichiro 11 Win Probability Added
Phillips created MORE wins in LESS plate appearances. I was well aware of the plate appearances and it is even more damning for Ichiro. More and less are pretty simple terms to follow.
So all that nonsense you attempted above is ALL already within the above....but with more accuracy and validity.
Phillips even had more RUNS SCORED at a higher rate than Ichiro, something our old school friends would appreciate.
Phillips also drove in more runs (RBI) than Ichiro and in 1,600 less plate appearances, again, something our old school friends will appreiciate.
There are those words again, did MORE in LESS attempts.
For all those hits that Ichiro got to get you all wet?
By YOUR method of evaluation, treating walks as non events, Ichiro had 1,446 career hits. That is the value of his hits by your methods.
I don't smoke, but I did digest your convoluted info and crapped it back out where it belongs.