Modern BU Rolls.
cladking
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Well the thread wants to float anyway and I've been meaning to start a thread...
I've long said that if there were a BU roll market for moderns that it would quickly be found there is no supply.
Of course I always meant that this should be a wholesale market because it never occurred to me that there would be sufficient retail demand to create one. Guess what? All of a sudden I'm seeing retailers trying to maintain a market. Prices are very high because they have to reflect the difficulty of restocking in a market with no supply. Clad roll availability is very poor because anything before 1999 and many of the coins after 1999 are not available.
This (retail) market is in its infancy but certainly bears watching. Village Coin and Dave's are market leaders apparently but there are a few others as well.
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Only hoarders and speculators "need" rolls. Many collectors own duplicates of one or many coins (me included) but that's something else entirely.
I tend to agree though there is room in the world for BU roll collectors as well.
The reason I never would have thought there would be a retail BU roll market is it always seemed improbable that anyone would want to "invest" in clad coins or other moderns, It is possible that some of these rolls are being purchased to be retailed individually. Half a dollar each for "common" BU clad dimes is really quite cheap if the coins are being retailed for a few dollars each. These are brand new markets for the main part so I have no clue what the source of the demand is. Obviously a few will go to Gem and variety collectors as well.
I'm just holding my breath waiting for the sellers to try restocking. I've already sold most of my coins but still have some left.
It is apparent with the growing numbers of sellers that singles are moving in ever growing numbers. BU rolls are a surprise.
I never imagined as a YN in the 1960's through about 1980; and as an adult collector from 1998 (when I returned to the hobby) through the present that original rolls of coins minted from the 1940 (1946 for dimes and 1948 for halves) forward to the present would ever have much of a market (for sale of the rolls to collectors who would pay significantly more than the melt value of the coins).
The numbers of these coins that have been minted are so great that the coins will never, ever be difficult to find and acquire.
Mintage is nearly irrelevant. Only two things matter; supply and demand. With the pre-1965 issues the supply is always very high but after 1965 fewer and fewer coins were saved each year. There were exceedingly few collectors and most of these collectors knew the best coins were in mint sets so they searched these and never bothered to save rolls. The reason the low supply was never noticed is that the demand is almost non-existent. Anyone who wanted one of these coins could find it easily enough.
But every year there are a few more collectors and a LOT FEWER mint sets. Now there is a demand for rolls (probably as WCC suggests is for investment) and there is almost no supply. When I ship off ten or twenty rolls of clad the buyer is often surprised that I have so many available. This is a measly 10 or 20 rolls so what happens when someone needs quantities? I used to see bag sets of things like '78-S proof quarters trade hands but even roll sets of clad quarters have been unavailable since even before 1982.
There is simply no supply so if the demand continues it is very probable price will increase because lack of supply simply won't stop any collectible market. Obviously if all this BU roll demand is purely speculative than lack of supply really could cripple the market.
People simply underestimate the effect that the Coinage Act of 1965 has had on markets, people, and collecting behavior. This hasn't been 1964 any longer for half a century now.
Speaking of which while nobody was looking most of the early clad coins have disappeared from circulation. Sure you can still find heavily worn coins and culls but nice attractive versions of things like a 1969 dime are pretty much gone. A few million nice VG's and F's are left but they are buried in the massive mintages of later coins. But forget a VF or XF. Mostly you should consider yourself lucky if you find a VG cull.
These coins were never pulled out of circulation to be placed in collections. They simply had a 30 year life expectancy and their time has been up for decades.
The coins are gone. There are no BU rolls. The attrition on mint sets has been sky high.
I agree with most of the old clad coins being beat up or just gone. I have a few nice graded quarter clads from the 1960's, like a PCGS graded MS-67 1967 that I bought raw for $1 at a coin show. It's a very nice coin, but I'm just not seeing a huge demand for those coins - yet. Will that ever come? That remains to be seen.
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A lot of the Franklin half dollars had very substantial premiums back when silver was $5 an ounce in the '80's and '90's. They weren't really "rare" but savings of half dollars wasn't nearly as large as lower denominations. I wouldn't mind holding a lot of silver as BU rolls of early date Franklins. If silver were to drop these premiums would probably reemerge.
That's a really good date. BU rolls wholesale at $155 for the non-SMS coin. It's hard to find singles for less than about $8 (retail).
No, there is no "huge demand" and might never be but there certainly is almost no supply. You just never saw '67 BU quarter rolls because they were considered too common to save and, while quality is much improved over 1966, most specimens are pretty bad. The mintage was so high these are still "common" in circulation but they top out in a nice high end Fine. 95% of circulating '67 quarters are heavily worn or cull so it will take a little while to locate a Fine.
The total attrition including degradation on these is over 99.99%. SMS coins are "easy" enough but not as easy as they were 45 years ago. Many sets have been lost and about 60% of the survivors are hazed or tarnished.
This isn't real collecting. It's hoarding and speculation. If someone is building a set, they need one and that's it.
I'm not singling out 1965-1998 coinage either. Years ago in Coin Week, a well-known dealer/commentator recommended buying "original" rolls from classic US coinage, presumably post 1933. This was obviously for speculation too.
Silver rolls are predominantly owned for "stacking" which doesn't apply to any base metal coin.
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Doesn't matter whether the coins are in rolls or not. Post 1965 US Mint Set mintage was so huge even with 90% attrition these coins aren't as scarce as you imply, except maybe if it's in the context of those you describe as "gems".
You're also claiming (again) to know what no one can possibly know. I've told you before that all it takes is a very low number of hoarders to change the result substantially. Wondercoin claimed in a prior thread (one of yours on this forum) to have a large stash of this coinage. He just didn't specify which coins, how many, or the quality distribution but no reason to believe it's not good enough for most collectors. He also mentioned (in general terms) knowing of others.
There isn't anything unusual about this result. MS-67 is usually the condition census coin for 1965-1998 US circulating coinage. It's only 1933-1964 US coinage, common Morgan and Peace dollars, common generic US classic gold, and comparable world coinage (mostly from developed countries) where it differs.
It sounds like you are suggesting that it's not "real" collecting if someone wants to put together a set of BU rolls or unopened packages of mint sets.
I've never believed in such "rules".
To each his own.
The mint didn't give away even one single 1965 SMS. Surely it's impossible for more to exist today than did in 1967.
Surely it's possible demand could actually return to 1967 level seeing as how everybody hated clad in those days and there are more people today. The population has increased more than 50% since then.
You're thinking of the '70-D half dollar which was a mint set only coin that @wondercoin said he had a stash.
I'm not privy to his personal business but based on the fac that he said these were top notch coins it's improbable we're talking about more than a few hundred coins. Even if it's more such a number is a drop in the bucket compared to the potential number of collectors. The mint made only a couple million of these and if you look in circulation and in rolls of 40% halfs going off to be melted you can find '70-D's. Sets also get burned, flooded, and suffer misadventure.
This coin has little to do with the availability of 1967 quarters or 1969 dimes which almost invariably went straight into pocket change or have found their way there over the last half century.
A few people couldn't save enough coins to supply an entire mass market.
You should have seen the typical early clad quarter. Quality was abysmal. In most cases the dies were set far apart so as to protect them from wear and then they were used until they were heavily worn anyway. Large percentages of coins like '66 quarters were made by a few tired dies.
There are very very few collectors buying high end clad coins. Only the tiniest percentage of coins like '67 quarters will grade MS-67. The thousands of coins in lower grades simply don't get graded. But there aren't millions of coins in lower grades as you and many believe. The coins were never saved and are now gone.
I agree that mintages are irrelevant; and that the supply of rolls of MS coins (particularly post 1964 rolls) and of even individual MS coins is very low for many of the years in question.
Demand may increase so far above supply on some of these MS coins that prices will rise. I just never imagined that it would happen.
I set aside many raw AU-MS clads and put them into Whitman Albums and/or rolls in the 1960's, and 1970's. I look at them from time to time and have come to appreciate them more and more as time goes by. Comparing these coins to the few low grade (cull to VG at best) examples of these coins that still show up in circulation today is very interest. When I look at Coin Facts photos of MS65, MS66 and MS67 examples of these early clad coins I am impressed with how eye appealing that they are.
When I look at Coin Facts photos of MS65, MS66 and MS67 examples of these early clad coins I am impressed with how eye appealing that they are.
This is the thing that surprises me the most; People did set aside some Gems. You couldn't prove it by me until about 1980 when I started hearing of other collectors and even joined the Kennedy Collectors Club. I've mentioned it before but when I moved heaven and earth to get a bag of '82-P Gem quarters the vault manager told me he had never heard of anyone getting bags of clad before so he called around to cohorts in the Chicago area and no one else did either.
Of course there were entities in Greencastle Indiana, Shartlesville, Pennsylvania, Canton Ohio and a few others that supplied a pathetic retail demand. One of the biggest of these suppliers (Julian Jarvis) told me he couldn't even sell an entire bag of clads in the early years and couldn't put together a roll set of coins without calling everyone in his address book (and even then). People assume all moderns are very common but it is not true. Even penny and nickel rolls can be highly elusive but clads are all tough.
It's not only singles and rolls in BU that are tough but nice lightly circulated coins. If people couldn't be bothered to save BU who would save XF's? By 1999 and these coins began getting some attention there were no more XF's or even many VF's of the early tougher dates. Any that did exist have either been plucked out by collectors or worn down another grade or two by now. Something started scratching up all the coins about this time as well so the coins are mostly a mess now.
Most clads that come into coin shops end up in the cash register or the seller is told to just "take them to the bank". My best 120 BU '69 quarters came out of a dealers cash register in the '80's. These rolls are never seen and I just happened to get one in change from the dealer. The paper wrappers were gone but all of the coins were the best '69 quarters I've ever seen made for circulation. High grade coins of this date "invariably" come from mint sets and they are quite scarce in mint sets.
Wondercoin claimed in a prior thread (one of yours on this forum) to have a large stash of this coinage. He just didn't specify which coins, how many, or the quality distribution but no reason to believe it's not good enough for most collectors. He also mentioned (in general terms) knowing of others.
You're thinking of the '70-D half dollar which was a mint set only coin that @wondercoin said he had a stash. I'm not privy to his personal business but based on the fac that he said these were top notch coins it's improbable we're talking about more than a few hundred coins. Even if it's more such a number is a drop in the bucket compared to the potential number of collectors. The mint made only a couple million of these and if you look in circulation and in rolls of 40% halfs going off to be melted you can find '70-D's. Sets also get burned, flooded, and suffer misadventure.
———-
Hello again! It’s been a couple years since we all spoke last in great detail about clad MS coins -whether found in bank-wrapped rolls or “put together” via the breaking up of govt. Mint Sets. I’m happy to update you all a bit on my efforts in this area.
First, for me, at least, the river of 1965-1998 govt. Mint Sets caused “a flood”. I simply could not keep up with the screening of this river of coins, even with my daughter Lauren working 6 days a week and countless hours a day going through them. For the most part, the best of the coins she found in her near 2 years of looking at them were placed in safe-flips. And there were a few handfuls of super special coins. But, overall, the task was not either income producing or mega (condition) rarity producing. As perhaps the greatest bulk grader (RIP Miles Standish) in the history of PCGS once said to me about these very mint set coins (including State quarter examples as well) - the hunt for the high grade rarities is “like eating soup with a fork”.
I had to abandon (primarily) the 1968-1998 Mint Set project - not because I could not find product, but, rather, because I was flooded with it! I have some potential “recruits” (all children of my closest friends) interested in taking over this project, but the oldest of them are just 14 -17 years of age. Since I travel internationally on business around 50% of the year now, I can not properly supervise these young recruits. I might set them loose on these sets though once they turn 18 (if they are still interested) and they can learn from their mistakes, just as I did screening these very same coins by myself beginning in the 1970’s.
Also, these clad coins are seldom available in bank-wrapped rolls and when they are, they are often overpriced. So, CK is correct that the roll market is mostly dried up - but, once again, that’s the original bank-wrapped clad roll market. The vast majority of these 1968-1998 MS clad coins can easily be assembled in rolls from the Mint Sets.
So- what have we moved into with all the free time since abandoning the overall (I say overall, because we still look for specific coins in that 1968-98 date range especially where we have an existing buy order if we can slab a specific MS Clad coin in a specific grade or designation) hunt for 1968-1998 clad coins - I will be happy to discuss that “modern” project when I get some more free time.
Cheers!
Wondercoin
I remember quite clearly getting a taste of wondercoin’s search for US park Quarters with him and his daughter at a previous major coin show. I was exhausted after just a few hours! You need a tremendous amount of free time and great eyes to search these clad coinage!
So much easier just to buy the bank rolls and keep them as is!
Cladking knows I have a large grouping of bank wrapped clad quarter rolls and bags from 1965 to 2005. I am not hoarding them. I am instead saving my eyes. LOL.
My eyes and I had more fun previously seeking out undergraded OGH PCGS and even OH NGC slabbed coins and getting them gold stickered by CAC.
I even bought a few of them as well!
I was invited by wondercoin to visit him abroad a few months back but was partially afraid to go abroad because of the fear that he would put me to work searching for these clad quarters again! My eyes were so thankful. LOL.
Threads like this are the forum at its finest.
Thanks to the OP and all the contributors.
"If I say something in the woods and my wife isn't there to hear it.....am I still wrong?"
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I like rolls, because I can see them if the date is written large enough on the wrap. I became a roll collector when I bought an heir’s collection that included twenty years of OBW nickel rolls
I look for bargain rolls of modern clad, I buy bargain slabbed clad, and I buy mint sets from sellers who are not dealers. @cladking is correct about the mint sets, it is hard find to pretty ones. Most of the vintage original wraps are compilations.
I get mint stuff in collections that I buy. Am I hoarding collections or collecting hoards?
I was invited by wondercoin to visit him abroad a few months back but was partially afraid to go abroad because of the fear that he would put me to work searching for these clad quarters again! My eyes were so thankful. LOL.
I mentioned only the 14-17 year old volunteers in the US for the job opening. I did not discuss the senior citizens that I can put to work when I take them to the exotic getaways hidden in Thailand. Earlier this month, it was “James Bond Island”. Free room and board in the private village for my senior friends if they can screen for just 6 hours a day! 😂. Oreville-don’t forget to bring a few extra magnifying glasses for that lovely wife of yours! And, don’t forget your gym shorts - the Village has the first floating soccer field (koh panyee). We can exercise early in the morning while it is cool! Send me your flight info. Into Phuket or Bangkok and your proposed dates! 😜
Wondercoin.
It would be easy to misinterpret all this information because each of us has a unique perspective. If you advertise to pay bid for mint sets you will be inundated because these sets sell very very poorly and they accumulate everywhere. When a dealer sees an opportunity to unload these unwanted coins they fly off to one of only a few buyers. Of course part of the perception of being flooded is that even though the coins are inexpensive you can't just stuff them somewhere because there are too many and you'll tie up to much storage and money. You have to sell them which is not so easy. Most are sold, this applies especially to the wholesaler and local dealer, by assembling rolls or hauling the coins to the bank. Rolls are much more easily wholesaled though these are all one way markets and mostly ending up as singles as or complete collections.
It's the similar with rolls and bags. I never had much luck finding these and frankly I don't really understand how anyone does but I know there are people who do. Perhaps were I willing to pay more for such coins I'd know these markets. The coins are all very interesting and some of the toughest of all moderns will have appeared only in this source but I concentrated on Gems and many bags and most rolls contain no Gems. Still rolls and bags are the only source for some varieties and Gems so are extremely important to preserving our heritage for future collectors.
My perspective of these markets is only the bottom line. 75% of the earlier mint sets are gone now. More than 90% of some coins in some sets are typically tarnished. Almost every surviving coin of most dates originated in a mint set.
But then there are the critical numbers. Only about 35 to 75% of the coins in mint sets can be restored to nice attractive BU condition and only .5 to 2% are Gem. Every year there are more clad collectors and every year the supply continues to ratchet lower. I believe collectors will choose nice chBU for clad because most lower grade, (MS-60 to MS-63) clad coins are ugly. Yes, there are tens of thousands of most dates still available but the market is highly inefficient at getting the coins to the collectors because the markets don't yet exist and price guides, while better every year, are still not reflective of demand and grading standards are not fully reflective of the conditions in which the coins actually exist. Almost all moderns have choice attractive surfaces yet this is still a major component of grading. Few moderns have a solid strike from new dies and this is a less major component of grading.
There were never many collectors before 1999. But since that time there are a few more every single year and this aggregate demand will outpace the supply eventually even if new collectors stop showing up. I see no reason that the number of collectors can't continue to increase since modern BU coins certainly aren't popular and more people are looking at their coins. It is looking at coins and seeing differences that creates collectors. If coins are all different why not put together collections of one of each? In a couple years the new "bicentennial" quarter will be out and this one is a "quarter of a millennium" rather than a mere "two centuries". There are two coins to make a "set" right there.
Yes, they made billions (virtually trillions) of coins and put another billion coins in mint sets but these coins and sets are being whittled away.
This new BU roll market is just another indication that there are more and more collectors. This one is so interesting to me because I know that nobody can maintain a supply of these rolls because there is nowhere to buy them. When you sell almost any roll you might never be able to restock it.
"quarter of a millennium"
Perhaps it will be marketed as the "Quarter of the Millennium".
I think demand grows for even the low MSs (graded ones) because the values do not surpass the expense of grading.
I was buying slabbed low MS quarters for under seven dollars. It’s more than double that now. The increase in shipping costs make them more expensive too.
How fast demand grows, who knows? I feel that someone else down the road will reap the fruits of my schemes.
Interesting thread. I have found a large majority of mint sets from 1970 to 1978 have coins that are very average in quality. Specifically the Ike dollars. Mitch has the number one set of Ikes, not sure how he does it!
Coin Finder: My Complete MS and Proof Ike set at this very moment has a PCGS Price Guide value of $1,065,967.00. Roughly 90% of this value, I personally bought at public auction over the past 25+ years or so and those auction coins overall have enjoyed a significant rise in value over those 3 decades. But, that isn’t to say I haven’t overpaid for some coins over the years as most serious Ike collectors do from time to time. Just answering your question - not boasting about anything here. In fact, my entire Ike collection is barely valued at half of a single spectacular Morgan Dollar! 😂 Needless to say, I believe the Price Guides are in serious need of some price increases on select mega rare Ike specimens to bridge the gap with some of the Morgans. But, that conversation is for another day.
Wondercoin.
A lot of moderns are in serious need of being repriced and regraded.
You can't even find a nice chBU '82-P quarter on eBay for less than a $100. Here's an NGC MS-67 for $409 but you can't even read "E Pluribus Unum" because it is so weakly struck.
https://www.ebay.com/itm/116056536956?itmmeta=01HQE59SWBVTSNY1DMX9B0189D&hash=item1b0582377c:g:yTAAAOSwehhlqzQT&itmprp=enc:AQAIAAAA4MIDPdQV+yYlRRANg0AbS+mvHux0xv61IhEQMBrurFSQXzx/e/BLBXQLC29CCeA919wqKKnP9G19qLGJYV2P6xST5oT1lj4hF+xwMk6VsRrC13Rqpqh6/0dPKCCkZje2EPBxt7DvTiP1dXxefJ2pblkN/kBansJmKDyxr1bl575RjChfYIBKzGE6cU+wunCeQVt5z189AXtnn9rR64UfmOyjG5xTmUm9tNTqSIerDAOr3EIOVqvFL5tzuZAvBXYhTbP/7FXIqK7vWkR/k6POG6EU/rDv/ZmdrkW3M26GsBOl|tkp:Bk9SR6aep8W7Yw
All of the retailers are usually sold out of the '82 and '83 coinage because specimens nice enough to retail as "BU" are difficult to find except at far higher prices than market.
Across the board there are numerous problems and they all have the same root cause; there are so few collectors chasing the coins.
Even nice Gem sets of Ikes are very difficult to assemble. I have some idea of the effort, time, and cost of having a #1 set. Bags of Morgans used to be everywhere and most bags had numerous Gems in them. Dealers would buy dip in 55 gallon drums in those days. Finding bags of Ikes is exceedingly difficult and most bags have no Gems. Most of the nicest coins come from the sets but the sets are typically quite mediocre.
People don't collect Ikes much because the experts tell them the coins are common and just pot metal anyway.
I could easily put together three or four rolls of all the '82 and '83 quarters but I have absolutely no motivation at these prices. The souvenir mint sets wholesale at 45 to $60 so why would I want to cut up many of the nicer sets and sell the most valuable coin in them for $15? Everyone is being stymied by the fact that there are so few collectors that even price discovery is impossible.
What young collector would want to buy the only available specimen on eBay for over $100 when Redbook lists it as a $30 coin and Greysheet lists them for $9.40 each?
How are the price guides to price coins when there is little demand and so few coins change hands?
Thousands of collectors vie for the nicest Morgans and tens of thousands have been graded. A few collectors want the finest Ikes and most people believe there are tens of thousands just waiting to be graded.
how do you evaluate the coins through the piliform? or have the ones I see with cracks and wrinkles been searched many times already?
It's an art but easy to lean.
Look at the worst blemish on the coin and try not to focus as you move the coin in the pliofilm by pinching right next to the coin between your thumb nail and index finger. All the flaws in the plastic stay put and the flaws in the coin move with it. Assessing the surface can only be done through experience involving cutting some of the coins out but as a rule of thumb most coins in a given set have about the same surfaces. A lot of this is learning but Gems are easily identified in most instances by merely looking at the coin as it moves.
Most sets have not been picked over because most sets tend to be destroyed after they are checked for Gems or varieties.
Yes, and you see that they’re dingy or dinged inside. (As are most of the clad mint and SM sets that I own.)
I guess you mean cellophane?
It should be pointed out that this pricing is primarily a problem with these markets rather than with Redbook or Greysheet. Both have done a good job but the problem is most of the nice '82-P quarters are AU or very low end Unc (MS-60/61) and are not considered chBU which is the grade that every retailer wants moderns. Not even every MS-63 is considered chBU because coins have to be fully lustrous and attractive to make the grade. Many '82-P quarters weren't attractive when they left the dies.
There are almost no rolls at all of these left any longer and very few trade because nobody wants low grades and nobody is going to sell chBU for Greysheet prices. On eBay it's a vast wasteland of ugly XF and AU coins being offered for high prices. Most of the few Uncs are MS-60 for prices from $12 to $100 and the few nice coins start at $100. Not bad for a coin that's listed for $235 per roll.
The retailers can't get the coins because they won't pay $100 each and they are almost always sold out which also serves to further thwart the markets.
People have no clue how scarce these coins are. Numismatic News ran a series of articles about how tough they were back when there were still a few BU's in the pipeline and lots of AU's in circulation so many gobbled up by collectors. But still there were fewer than 100,000 BU's set aside and many of these coins are gone because they are put in cash registers by dealers who often tell heirs to take the moderns to the bank. There is also normal attrition. Of these coins about 75% would qualify as chBU and the rest would be MS-60. Gems are so scarce as to not be worthy of mentioning. I have some of the finest of these because I started looking before Numismatic News alerted the public and systematically tracked down nice coins and nice sets. But I may not have even a single coin that I consider true Gem (MS-65). This is because even the finest strikes from the newest dies are "never" fully stuck. Finding clean coins was exceedingly difficult but finding well struck coins was more difficult yet. There may be no clean well struck specimens.
So this is the market. It really applies to all modern BU rolls in one form or another. There were more '82 and '83 rolls saved than any date before this time but this supply is still paltry. Most moderns are in mint sets and most mint sets have been destroyed.
The US Mint sold up to 2MM+ Mint Sets each and every year for decades after 1964. Contrary to what you claim, people don't buy anything they don't want. There is also no required minimum preference for any coin. Collectors and the public never preferred pre1-965 circulating coinage as much as you claim because they have no predisposition to prefer their circulating change, which is your actual claim, whether you will admit it or not. Go look at 1960's Red Books. It's only for semi-key dates where your claim is true and there is no similarity between this coinage and hardly any US modern.
I'm not talking about condition census coins or the 70--D half and you didn't state this either. I'm talking about what you were implying in your prior posts. This coinage isn't hard to find. No, there aren't hundreds or thousands of "gem" or high-quality rolls for most of this coinage readily available. I never claimed it. This coinage isn't hard to find. Go look on eBay which your posts indicate you never do. I found one or more "UNC" or BU" rolls for every clad quarter date up to 1981. No 1982-P or 1983-P quarters but every other date is there, almost always in multiple. Five 1969-P. Yes, many or mostly mint set coins. So what? The coins are available for anyone who will look in the right place, just not at your local dealer.
The reason I have disagreed with you on availability is because you claim to know what no can possibly and combine it with assumptions of behavior which don't have anything to do with virtually how anyone collects, sometimes even your own collecting.
I'm aware of this. The point I'm making is that lack of or limited number of MS-67 for many US modern dates is the norm, not the exception. It's only with 1933-1964 US coinage and the more recent world coinage where this does not apply.
There is nothing unusual about it.
Thanks for the clarification.
I've only looked sporadically on eBay and usually to respond to this type of thread but it's a lot more often than just a few times. What you described is what I have seen every time. I haven't claimed that this coinage is available as super high gems or a quality like that in any meaningful number.
We've talked about this before.
Most old coins were saved "accidently". They got lost in storage or were used to back paper money in the days before "money" was a stroke of a pen. Coins were removed because the money was debased and drove out the good money. Coins had value rather than being toxic slugs or worthless discs that caused more to produce than they were worth. Collectors collected them and preserved them thereby.
Modern coins couldn't save themselves. The FED and mint rotated the coins in stock so no old coins, no undegraded coins could sit in storage. Circulation became a meat grinder that just ate up everything. These coins had only a thirty year life expectancy and the coins are nearly 60 years old now. They're gone and no amount of calling them common will bring them back. Nor will it erase the decades of abuse and neglect from the survivors.
Modern coins were not saved accidently and they were not saved intentionally. Most modern BU coins originated in mint sets and most mint sets are gone now. Surviving mint sets are usually tarnished. Most of the coins that were put into mint sets are gone now as well because these coins have been neglected for decades and are still being neglected.
You are simply observing that moderns are common. Every box you see is a bunch of moderns. You see what's in the box but what you don't see is what is not in the box because they are almost all gone. What you don't see in the box is modern BU base metal coins of larger denominations from anywhere in the world. The coins are gone. Most have been recalled and melted. Many are simply gone through attrition. The fact you can go to eBay and find some of them isn't because they are common but rather they are still being neglected. There is no demand.
Things like high prices for high grades and for tougher coins like the '82's and 3's are just the canary in the coal mine. You can't buy them at market prices because the markets are screwy; it's all demand and no supply. Why would you assume that the ones you can buy are so common if there's no supply for cheap or expensive ones? This is what makes this new market for BU rolls so interesting. How are they ever going to restock. There is no wholesale market for BU rolls. You couldn't put together a BU roll set of quarters in 1982 even if you were in the business. Do you really think it's easier today? If the rolls are here today, where were they in 1982?
Sure it's entirely possible for someone to make a market in BU rolls and buy and sell every single date of clads made since 1965. I don't think you could imagine how high the price would have to go and how massive the spread would be on some dates until things stabilized. Have you forgotten that the implied value of a 1982-P quarter roll today is about $4000? This is what nice chBU coins bring on eBay TODAY. How much would you have to bid to get someone to cut up "40" 1982 souvenir sets worth $60 each to entice them? With a mintage of "10,000" just how many dealers would have "40" of these sets? The only reason even one dealer would have these is the mint broke with tradition in 1982 and sold these sets by mail. The coin papers didn't print the story or address because nobody cared about moderns. I know for a fact that at least a few dealers bought these in quantity but I wager they have all been sold since those days. I actually saw a group of "30" and was able to pick through it. There was no limit to how many you could buy in the gift shop but these sets were extremely unpopular which is why mintages are so low.
Perhaps moderns will remain unpopular forever but then we're left to speculate on why BU rolls are now marketable. I have a few hunches but will wait until I have evidence before stating them.
I never really understood how they sold so many very unpopular sets either. There weren't many coins to choose from each year so many sets were just sold because people had the habit. Of course if you sets arrived early in the year you could usually sell one or two at the corner coin shop and keep the rest for free. Also there were a few people who collected one denomination ort another and this was a convenient way to stay current.
If you're right that there was so demand for mint sets then where are they now? Obviously the demand for sets is far far lower than the mintages as evidenced by the simple fact that most are gone and a lot of what's left are just sets the owners never bothered to get rid of. Sets don't trade back and forth in the market as you seem to perceive because there is ALMOST NO DEMAND FOR SETS. Even today every coin shop takes in far more sets than they sell every year. Sets are cut and placed in the cash register. Most dealers don't even check for Gems and varieties, they just cut 'em up. They only buy them because sellers just want to "SELL EVERYTHING".
There's no demand for 2,000,000 mint sets a year. This is a consumer society and it consumes 2,000,000 mint sets a year. And make no mistake about it; it can no longer consume 2,000,000 1969 mint sets because they are already consumed. The few survivors are largely consumed by tarnish and carbon spots. Nice attractive sets and singles would not be available except for the simple fact people are consuming other things like chicken laden with water and sodium tripolyphosphate or 2024 mint sets. It's always something. Every year another few million mint sets are destroyed or become tarnished. This isn't going to stop just because we continue to neglect them. It is the neglect that is causing it.
Pricing modern coins at low levels isn't going to stop these markets from developing either. It will just drive how they are traded. Collectors collect and if they need a coin for their collection that costs multiples of market they will collect it eventually anyway. If tough coins are available fore next to nothing they'll collect those as well right up until there is no supply at all and a real BU roll market would take a lot of the overhang off the market.
This is a most curious situation. Just because it sounds impossible doesn't affect supply or demand. Supply has been dropping steadily for many years and demand is still increasing geometrically. Canaries are falling off their perches.
You made me look. I didn't see a single original unsearched roll of any date before 1999 despite searching BU rolls quarters. I saw a few very interesting listings that I might buy were I not already selling but not original BU rolls. The very few rolls I saw in the hundreds of listings I looked at were obviously mint set rolls. And these were offered at multiples of Greysheet. I did see a 1965 roll offered for $135 that was "original" but apparently searched. This is the most common of all BU quarter rolls but a truly original roll is easily worth Greysheet if the end coins are nice (and these are). This is the only eagle reverse date that you can be confident of restocking if you sell.
Now certainly mint set rolls are superior in all ways to regular issues in most instances and purposes but people who assemble mint set rolls are not likely to leave in varieties or Gems. They'll remove only a very low percentage of coins from high end and a very high percentage from the low end making very nice rolls. These coins will usually be all chBU unless the seller is just dumping mint set culls which are numerous. But, again, these coins are available only because moderns are neglected. The few of them on eBay wouldn't supply a mass market for a week. I NEVER said there is no supply except relative to older coins, there is no demand so a few rolls have accumulated on eBay and at higher prices than Greysheet.
Why don't you send me a link the next time you see 1969 quarter rolls. Even though I'm an insider I have not actually laid eyes on an original roll of 1969 quarters since 1969. The ones I saw in 1969 were all skunky which is why I didn't save any at all. The few rolls I do have were pulled from a coin dealer's cash drawer many years later. They are exceedingly choice for the date. These rolls didn't appear on dealers' sell lists after about 1972 and very very few were sold. Most of these are likely gone now after the owners tired of holding them and spent them. I'd be a little surprised if the aggregate sales for these was even 2000 rolls from the five main suppliers. People were not going to the banks to secure their own rolls because banks didn't like to do this and there was no demand. No doubt a few people got BU rolls without asking and saved some.
The lack of demand for clad coins was near total. Attrition on coins and rolls has been astronomical and collections of clads are rarely seen in the coin shops. If a collection comes in they are often put in the cash register. Dealers don't put wheat pennies and old nickel rolls in the cash register and they don't put 1962 quarters in it either. Many older coins were saved and attrition is lower. Few moderns were saved and attrition is astronomical.
There are some original clad quarter rolls and bags. But the aggregate number of these is generally miniscule compared to mint set mintages and are not easily found. They are not going to come out of the woodwork no matter the price because they aren't in the woodwork.
This post thread reminded me to search on eBay for rolls of 1969 P dimes and I just went and purchased the only one available. It was $175. I try and pick up rolls of uncirculated 1969 P dimes whenever I find them, but to date I’ve only found a couple. I also sometimes pick up singles in 2x2s at coin shows when I remember to do so. I have a bunch of those. Been doing this ever since Mrs_Spud did a project one year where she went through tons of bank rolls of dimes and put together as many complete sets of circulated clad dimes as she could and she found many examples of all of them except 1969 P. She didn’t find any of those. This was about 15 years ago and I realized that the 69Ps were going to be the key dates in the future if people start collecting sets of clad dimes. These posts always remind me to keep looking for them.
Mr_Spud
That was half the life expectancy of a clad dime ago. Half a life time.
By now you won't be able to find a 1971 either and the '75-D's and '78-D's will be getting few and far between.
In another 15 years all the pre-1980 dates will missing except for culls and very low grades. In another 15 years the 2024-D's will not be more common than they are today.
I like the '69 dime a lot but the real dark horse is the '68 and the '71 will be another front runner. The '68 should be the toughest early dime in chBU the '69 toughest in Gem and the '71 will be second across the board.
I've yet to see any 2024 dimes, so I assume in 15 years there will be more than 0 in (my) circulation.
You're right, of course. I shouldda said '23-D dimes.
The '24-D dimes made to date will be no more plentiful though they will be more widely dispersed; some even in collections.
I tried some other search parameters for BU rolls and actually found some. I don't know what's wrong with eBay's search engine.
What strikes me is how high priced they are. I do know that eBay has pretty high prices now days but these are selling for multiples of Greysheet. They tend to be even higher than the new retailers.
These are still one way markets so I don't know how any of them can restock other than the consumption of more mint sets. I wonder how many of these rolls being sold will be kept intact or in good condition. Some buyers are just seeking Gems and varieties and are prone to spend the cast offs. I imagine many of the buyers are outsiders to the mainstream hobby and not all will be able to keep these rolls from degradation. In other words how many of these rolls being retailed will be consumed.
I'll be watching these markets closely.
So you keep telling me, because you keep on comparing these coins to 1933-1964 US coinage which is the most common circulating coinage in "high" quality on the planet. Your claims are a complete exaggeration. as there is no significance to any coin being scarcer versus this coinage.
Go look on eBay. The number there isn't low. I find this coinage in volume in a quality good enough for 99% of the collector base every time I look. You don't do that. Instead, you're doing what you claimed I am doing, when you claimed I am "stuck in the 60's" where you still think your observations in coin shops and CRH is representative when it isn't.
Look at the TPG data for coins you don't collect. You don't do this either. You don't know anything about it. If so many of these coins exist which are known to be at least somewhat scarce exist with the current supply, it's obvious that US moderns exist in huge multiples in comparable quality, except maybe for the "top pop".
You look in the wrong place and use assumptions that don't have anything to do with how virtually anyone collect, sometimes not even your own collecting.
I didn't state these are original rolls because that's irrelevant to over 99% of the collector base. Virtually no one cares if it's an original roll or one made up from Mint Sets.
Searching for these coins is not an exact science. I've searched under the denominations (usually quarters since that's the one you discuss most often), under rolls, in bulk lots, or a combination. It's not possible to find everything just with a search on the entire site using the date/ denomination.
To see what's truly available, someone needs to search regularly, not ad-hoc or one time. That's what I do for the primary coins I collect now. I have a saved search that I check virtually every day, but it presumably doesn't capture everything either.
I own about 100 of these now when most collectors have never seen even one in their entire life, almost certainly including you. None of these are "dreck" either and a high proportion are high quality. But I only found a very low minority on eBay, even though the site has 2MM-3MM coin listing (many bulk or group lots) all the time.
You're conflating "popular" with market value. The coins are "popular in the sense that there is a "mass market" but only at nominal prices. The coins have a low collector preference which is what you call "hating".
Yes, the far more limited choice at the time is a primary explanation for the prior much larger mintages. Yes, there apparently was a lot of speculative buying at some point. That's what I read. Still, (virtually) no one buys anything they don't want, year after year. That's what has to be true for your claim to be true.
Most are probably degraded as you have stated but a high enough proportion are presumably still in someone's collection. That's where most coins are in collections and "change jars". It's not where you, I, or anyone else can see it.
Obviously the demand for sets is far far lower than the mintages as evidenced by the simple fact that most are gone and a lot of what's left are just sets the owners never bothered to get rid of. Sets don't trade back and forth in the market as you seem to perceive because there is ALMOST NO DEMAND FOR SETS. Even today every coin shop takes in far more sets than they sell every year. Sets are cut and placed in the cash register. Most dealers don't even check for Gems and varieties, they just cut 'em up. They only buy them because sellers just want to "SELL EVERYTHING".
You're partly describing time preference. Due to the low value, it's not worth the bother of driving to a coin shop to get FV or slightly more or to list it on eBay. Only somewhat different in buying it.
At noticeably higher prices, rolls will be broken up and sold as singles because of the higher opportunity cost. Practically all roll "collecting" of 1933-1964 US coinage is almost certainly either due to "stacking" (for the silver) or because it's low priced too. No one is going to hoard clad coinage in volume for the metal content absent hyperinflation.
I usually only look when responding to these threads but can do that in the future.
Millions of bust half dollars were saved as backing for species. Millions of morgans sat in bank bags until 1963. Indian cents were widely collected as they were issued and the mint didn't rotate their stocks of coins so some got lost in the vaults for years or decades. Gold is still coming up from the ocean floor. Millions of coins were buried in times of strife and they are found for centuries. I could go on and on but NONE of these things happen to moderns. They are issued and then ground to a nub in circulation unless they are lost first. This is just the way it is.
No. You are making assumptions again. I can't speak for every clad collector but the fact is that retailers can't sell these unless they are at least chBU. This means a "nice" MS-63 or better. Not bad '63's, only nice ones. Even a few MS-64's are hard to retail. You are simply assuming these coins are nice enough for the market. Many original rolls are skunked; you can open up a penny roll and have dust come out. Clad rolls can be dark and tarnished and even better rolls can be heavily picked over so the coins fall short of being attractive.
I personally consider "gemmy" to be the lowest grade to collect clad. I don't know about other collectors but I do know nice coins sell faster than junk. Many moderns are very tough in MS-64 or better which is my preferred grade. Saying they are available doesn't create them.
True Gems can be very scarce and the number of original rolls irrelevant because some are just that rare in rolls. You seem to think he mintages of mint sets and number of rolls assure these coins will be common forever. This is EXACTLY the thinking that got us to the point that sellers of moderns can't restock and $6 coins typically sell for $100 on eBay. How many of these will still be around when this thinking changes?