Josh Allen and turnovers
ajaan
Posts: 17,369 ✭✭✭✭✭
in Sports Talk
Food for thought.
Peyton Manning had 137 turnovers in his first 6 years
Tom Brady 132
Romo 102
Favre 156
Brees 120
Roethlisberger 122
McNabb 114
Josh Allen 102
Average fans think TO's mean you're no good.
DPOTD-3
'Emancipate yourselves from mental slavery'
CU #3245 B.N.A. #428
Don
0
Comments
i don't think anyone would subscribe to the notion that Josh Allen is no good. on the contrary. but let's face it, the dude is like your favorite roller coaster -- lots of ups and downs at warp speed. it's usually highlight reel or ill-advised, with not much in between. first half against Miami he turned the ball over 3 times and pissed away a bushel of points. second half he turned into Hercules, was making plays left and right, and his team dispatched the Dolphins to the North Pole.
the question should never be, "is Josh Allen good?"
rather, "which Josh Allen are we gonna get?"
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
I like Allen, he's the emotional rollercoaster from hell.
it is hard to compare those players to Allen as it is a very different NFL than it was for most of those players during their first 6 seasons. If they were to be able to play their first 6 years now, they would have far fewer turnovers.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
I think part of it is that guys like Brady and Manning got better with turnovers as they went on. In Brady's 6th season of actually playing, he had 14 total turnovers - while throwing 50 touchdowns. Allen had 25 turnovers this year while throwing 29 touchdowns (and rushing for 15 more, of course). He set a career high in picks (18) this year.
He should be getting better, not worse.
EDIT: Peyton had 16 turnovers in his 6th year.
I realize this may never happen, and perhaps it is categorized somehow now with all the various stats these days.
But let's take interceptions for example. There's a huge difference between an interception thrown in a key part of the game with the game on the line, versus a basically meaningless interception when a team is hopelessly beat, and the QB is just winging it out there hoping for a few miracles.
I’ll take the turnovers, the bone head plays the what was he thinking any day. I’ve suffered enough through bad QB play and the pull my hair out guy was Tyrod Taylor. He has Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods in their prime and threw for 16 touchdowns. His favorite play on 3rd and 9 was a 3 yard scramble.
Josh Allen is heads and above the best QB in the league damn the stats.
You think Mahomes make that run on 3rd and 13 through 4 defenders?
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Yes. Yes, I do.
https://youtu.be/QHEG7CRBUGA?si=aIour7ioOU5JMNjt
.
.
How is it different now? Other than they play more games now.
DPOTD-3
'Emancipate yourselves from mental slavery'
CU #3245 B.N.A. #428
Don
Josh being Josh. You get the good with the bad.
So, were some of those TOs because they were trying to hold him back from his instincts? I know they ask similar QBs to not sun / scramble as much.
Let's just be clear. At the end of Mahomes run, #35 meets him at the goal line, gets his hand on the ball, and tries to rip it out. Unsuccessfully.
Be honest, now. We all know if Allen was the ball carrier there, that ball is on the ground, and maybe returned 99 yards the other way.
it is hard to compare those p> @stevek said:
this is true. there are some situations where an interception is better than punting.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
rule changes. it is a different game now. MUCH easier to pass now than it was when those guys started.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
I would 100% take Allen over Mahomes. and no, Patty would not have made that run. he would have found his way out of bounds like he always does.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
My exact thoughts
Countdouglas you’re just being ridiculous! Since when does Josh Allen ever play in the Super Bowl?
So obviously we don’t know what Allen would have done in a complete fairy tale scenario.
As opposed to Tommy boy the human statue?
Okay this thread was all fine and good but when it turns into a mahomes bashing thread I draw the line.
Allen has no post season success at all. 🤣🤣
As much as I love Allen, I love Mahomes even more. Who can forget his heroics last season, after suffering an ankle sprain, he toughs it out and leads his team through the playoffs and to the Super Bowl. Then in the Super Bowl, he breaks off a 14 yard run and rolls his bad ankle, toughs it out, keeps playing, and at the end of the game with the Super Bowl on the line, he breaks off a 26 yard scramble on his bad ankle to secure the field goal and the championship. If that isn't enough to make you a fan of Mahomes then I don't know what is.
I'm taking Mahomes 10 out of 10 times over Josh Allen in any scenario
Every GM in football disagrees with you. Patty’s great but Allen is far better
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
I dont think I ever said Tommy was a great rusher? did I? I was agreeing with a comment made above. I know you watch all the Chiefs games. 90% of the time, when out of the pocket, Patty finds his way out of bounds. He NEVER initiates contact. at least not the last few years. He finds the sideline like it is a magnet and dances a couple of steps and sticks his arm out to look like he got an extra yard. He would not have made the same run Allen did. at least not from what I have seen the last couple of years.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
@Darin do you disagree that the passing game is worlds different today than it was 20 years ago?
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
What has Josh Allen won?
Are you arguing over who to take for one play? Mahomes and the Chiefs are the best 3rd and long team in the league year after year after year. So if you had 3rd and 10+ yards, you would absolutely take Mahomes over Allen. Now are you saying which QB would I take if I needed a 13 yard scramble and had to run through 3 or 4 players to make it? Then the obvious answer is the bigger the QB (ie Allen).
In the end, despite multiple opportunities and close calls Allen hasn't yet been able to get it done in the playoffs. Mahomes & the Chiefs have been his kryptonite. With the Chiefs sucking this year, I think it is Bills & Ravens in the AFC. One of the two perennial playoff disappointments is going to get to the Super Bowl and rewrite the playoff story for either Lamar or Josh.
As for the game now vs 20 years ago, it really isn't that different. In 2004 the average passing yards per game was 210, in 2023 it was 219. The biggest difference is you can't kill a WR when they are catching a pass now so the slot guys are more protected and QBs don't protect their WRs as much as they used to from big hits. This leads to more slot and inside routes with a corresponding increase in completion percentage due to the shorter/easier throws for the QBs.
Robb
Josh have Hill and Kelse? Please stop with the what has he won. We’re talking generational talent. Mahomes has been on 2 SB winning teams. You see the decline with his receivers? Enough about what has he won. I’m taking pure all around talent.
Whatever conversation follows I’m saying now we’ll agree to disagree
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
@2dueces, is your position as an admitted Josh Allen hero worshipper so fragile that we can't view him critically here?? The statement "what has he won" is used often in some iteration, maybe even by you, when describing someone's achievements. There's plenty of criticism of Bill Belichick because his teams have performed poorly the last few years, Lamar Jackson gets hammered because he hasn't won anything yet. I could go on, but I digress.
Josh Allen is a good QB but has fallen short. The Buffalo Bills are a good team but have fallen short since Allen's been there and the franchise has flopped badly in the past. Should we not say as much?? Look at the Chiefs this season, fans are already talking about them in a less than positive way. It's sports, if the kitchens too hot..........................
If you want to talk pure, all around talent I think right now Josh Allen is probably in the top 5 and that's it, but most certainly not the best. I would not choose him first if I had the other but it doesn't matter, I'm a fan and not a GM or franchise owner. For God's sake, this a chat room where we discuss and we don't all like the same thing or player.
Remember, I'm the guy that likes the Indianapolis Colts and wanted them in the playoffs. You almost had a coronary over that but it's a freakin' opinion in a chat room.
I saw all I needed to see in the Miami game when Josh dropped back to throw and was looking to his right the whole time and then threw left the same instant he looked that direction. Ball went right to a Miami defender for a pick in the end zone.
If he’s making boneheaded plays like that in his 6th season that’s a big reason why the bills haven’t been going anywhere in the playoffs.
As a passer,Josh Allen reminds me a lot of Brett Favre in his early years. Gunslinger mentality,high TD totals with high INT numbers as well.
I agree with galaxy's comment above about on any given night, Which Josh are going to get? For many years the same could have been said for Brett too.
Eric
Erikthredd’s MJ Collection: https://www.psacard.com/psasetregistry/publishedset/395035
Erikthredd’s Nike Air Jordan Collection: https://www.psacard.com/psasetregistry/basketball/key-card-sets/nike-poster-cards-michael-jordan-1985-1992/alltimeset/408486
the beautiful thing is that if the Chiefs beat the Dolphins and the Bills beat the Steelers, guess what happens? except this time it would go down in Buffalo. then it'll be knee-jerk time...............either "Allen has surpassed a declining Mahomes" or "Mahomes owns Allen and always will"
in other words, don't expect this thread to be buried under rubble anytime soon
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
Not to dog-pile-on-the-rabbit, but for the 7 games prior to Miami Josh Allen averaged about 57% completions. In 2 of the last 3 games he's been over 70%. That really gets to the point made by @galaxy27, who shows up?? In a game such as Sunday against Pittsburgh with poor weather conditions for throwing and a tough run defense, what happens, who shows up??
strictly from a talent aspect, it is Allen. he is bigger, stronger, a better runner and has better arm talent. now, athletic talent isnt everything, but if Allen ever puts it together he could be unstoppable.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
@craig44 said: strictly from a talent aspect, it is Allen. he is bigger, stronger, a better runner and has better arm talent
By comparison, Justin Herbert is almost a carbon copy of Josh Allen, listed as one inch taller and one pound heavier. In some statistical measurements Herbert is actually better, but overall the two are close enough to call it even and Justin Herbert is two years younger. The biggest difference between the two is that Allen has the advantage of playing on a better team with a Head Coach who knows how to use him. With whoever ends up coaching the Chargers, this might be an interesting discussion in two years.
Just to speculate, what happens if Belichick goes to LA and works some "Brady-esque magic" on Justin Herbert??
While they are close to the same in size, Allen is a significant threat on the ground. Herbert not so much. Allen also has better arm talent that Herbert. Allen has the best arm in the league.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Allen doesn’t have the best arm talent, Burrow probably does.
Nolan Ryan always had the best arm in the league but was never the best pitcher. Allen doesn’t have the touch of Burrow or Mahomes and is more excitable under pressure hence the habit of gunning the ball when a deft touch is required.
I will respectfully disagree.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Josh is wasting all that arm talent then since his career completion percentage is 63 compared to Burrow at 68.
I once thought that Warren Moon through the prettiest long pass in the NFL and then he was overtaken in my mind by Joe Flacco during his years in Baltimore. Now Joe Burrow seems to be a Warren Moon re-incarnation. I don't see that "touch" with Josh Allen or anyone else for that matter. As far as "arm talent" and whatever that means there are several guys who can make all the throws. I won't rank them, but here's my short list:
Tua Tagovailoa
Patrick Mahomes
Matthew Stafford
Justin Herbert
CJ Stroud
Lamar Jackson
If you look a little deeper at the advanced passing stats, you will see that Burrow has a higher comp. % because his passes are consistently shorter on average than Allens. In Intended air yards/pass attempt this year, allen is averaging 8.7 yards. Burrow is only at 6.3. for their careers, Allens lowest is 8.2 yards/attempt. Burrows highest is 8.5 yd/att.
Burrow is getting a bump on comp % because his throws are shorter, thus easier to complete. he is also getting a bump on YAC.
dont just look at IAY/PA. look at their numbers for Completed air yards/Pass attempt.
I would say that Burrows is wasting all of his arm talent on short easy throws.
The same could be said for Mahomes as well. He is throwing shorter/easier passes than Allen. lots of screens and short crossing patterns and letting the receivers get YAC. coaches are scheming those guys to better completion percentages.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
@craig44 said: dont just look at IAY/PA. look at their numbers for Completed air yards/Pass attempt
I'll go one better, don't just look at stats, actually watch the guys play. Burrow throws a much better touch pass deep than Allen.
the numbers dont seem to back that up
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Exactly!
If that is the case, I wonder why he is throwing so many short dump off passes?
And when he has such a talented receiver on his team.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
I would put Cousins on that list.
If that is the case, I wonder why he is throwing so many short dump off passes
@craig44, Joe Burrow isn't "throwing so many short dump off passes" right now because he hasn't played in two months. When he did that while playing I suspect it's because he makes quick reads and chooses not to throw into coverage. Is that now a bad thing??
Arm talent would be the speed, distance and accuracy of throws. the ability to make any throw on the field under any circumstance.
Tua would be an example of a QB who does not have great arm talent. Prime Aaron Rodgers had about as good of arm talent as any QB in history ever had. Moon, Marino, Elway are others.
now, you dont necessarily have to have A+ arm talent to be an all time great. Montana is a good example of that.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
I am obviously not talking about the last 2 months. choosing not to throw into coverage and checking down is exactly why his completion % is very high. low risk/low reward throws. I have not seen every game Burrows has played in, but since they have been keeping track of this type of advanced stat (2018) Burrow (and Mahomes) have ranked behind Allen in passing downfield. over that long of a sample size, I have to think those coaching staffs are game-planning lots of screens/short crossing patterns that are very low risk. Mahomes IAY/PA has decreased every single year since 2018. That tells me the coaching staff has included far more screens/low risk short passes. The sample size is just too large to indicate anything else. They would often throw short passes to Tyreek and let him pile up YAC.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
does anyone have the line on the dueces/craig vs darin/count bowling match ?
i'd like to bet on it
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet