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What could happen in 2024, that didn't happen in 2023, that would push silver to $30+

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  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 21, 2024 5:40PM

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    no, just a rational response (fear).
    You see rational as irrational when you don't agree with it. Just like how you consider reality a conspiracy theory when you don't agree with it..

    Fear is easily overcome through growth of knowledge.

    Or confirmed/justified through growth of knowledge. A gain in knowledge does not only produce learning good things.

    Fear is one of two things that ultimately drives investment decisions. The other is greed.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,379 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    no, just a rational response (fear).
    You see rational as irrational when you don't agree with it. Just like how you consider reality a conspiracy theory when you don't agree with it..

    No. You said panic, which is ALWAYS the wrong decision. Fear is a rational response to ignorance or lack of understanding. Fear is easily overcome through growth of knowledge.

    You're the one who sees conspiracy in everything, not I.

    Your a natural contrarion, despite what you think you preach, your history preaches it.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,123 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    no, just a rational response (fear).
    You see rational as irrational when you don't agree with it. Just like how you consider reality a conspiracy theory when you don't agree with it..

    Fear is easily overcome through growth of knowledge.

    Or confirmed/justified through growth of knowledge. A gain in knowledge does not only produce learning good things.

    Thinking the Earth is flat is not learning things. Although others can learn about those that think that way, and mold and manipulate them into doing their bidding.

    Fear is one of two things that ultimately drives investment decisions. The other is greed.

    And basing decisions on those emotions always goes badly.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,123 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 22, 2024 5:02AM

    @DrBuster said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    no, just a rational response (fear).
    You see rational as irrational when you don't agree with it. Just like how you consider reality a conspiracy theory when you don't agree with it..

    No. You said panic, which is ALWAYS the wrong decision. Fear is a rational response to ignorance or lack of understanding. Fear is easily overcome through growth of knowledge.

    You're the one who sees conspiracy in everything, not I.

    Your a natural contrarion, despite what you think you preach, your history preaches it.

    I go by two rules...

    1. The masses are asses.
    2. Keep it simple.

    This reduces all the noise and distraction and allows for focus and discipline.

    And understanding that "they" know and understand and exploit and manipulate #1, provides clarity and reason in observing one's surrounds.

    Masses is usually the majority of a subset, not necessarily everyone or all-encompassing. For instance, ardent PM bugs may see themselves as a minority, but to "they", are masses.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    Fear is one of two things that ultimately drives investment decisions. The other is greed.

    And basing decisions on those emotions always goes badly.

    All investment decisions are based on two things, greed and fear.
    They buy because they expect to make money.
    They sell because they fear they will lose money.

    Their decisions some times go badly, but there's a of money being made based on these decisions.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 22, 2024 6:29AM

    A growing diversion of the copper/gold indicates downward interest rates.

    "For those still undecided on the trajectory of interest rates, the historical reliability of the copper/gold ratio suggests a strong signal—a downward trajectory in the coming year. An outcome that is likely to align with a response to the next significant economic disaster."

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • GoldminersGoldminers Posts: 3,987 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 22, 2024 8:23AM

    This is an interesting graph, but correlation is not always indicative of causation. The multi-decade downdraft in 10-year rates that popped with inflation the past couple years could generate a false signal with this ratio for a while longer.

    Not convinced that inflation is going away with massive borrowing in the works due to most of the world's government's lack of fiscal discipline and geopolitical wars. Some bond buyers may demand higher long-term rates, even if short term rates drop for the US election game. How this impacts copper/gold ratios is uncertain.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭

    In less than five years the FED will own most of the US debt. Unfortunately they will print lots of new money to buy that debt. Money supply will increase drastically followed by very high price inflation. Look for lots of QE to get that money on the street as well as an increase in GOV payouts to the public.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • GoldminersGoldminers Posts: 3,987 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The Fed will stop QT soon to get the ball rolling again.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,123 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    Fear is one of two things that ultimately drives investment decisions. The other is greed.

    And basing decisions on those emotions always goes badly.

    All investment decisions are based on two things, greed and fear.

    No they aren't. Only a neophyte that that.

    They buy because they expect to make money.

    That's not greed.

    They sell because they fear they will lose money.

    Calculated risk is not fear.

    Their decisions some times go badly, but there's a of money being made based on these decisions.

    If they average investor thinks like you then no wonder they all grossly underperform.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,123 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 23, 2024 4:47PM

    @derryb said:
    In less than five years the FED will own most of the US debt.

    Haha. That's funny!!!

    Unfortunately they will print lots of new money to buy that debt. Money supply will increase drastically followed by very high price inflation. Look for lots of QE to get that money on the street as well as an increase in GOV payouts to the public.

    Yay...more checks with Trumps name on them. Those were classic!!!

    Are you expecting a massive recession like in 2008...or bigger?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 23, 2024 7:47PM

    @cohodk said:

    They buy because they expect to make money.

    That's not greed.

    Wanting more money is classified as greed.

    They sell because they fear they will lose money.

    Fear of losing money is classified as fear.

    You're losing your Knack for twisting words.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    Are you expecting a massive recession like in 2008...or bigger?

    of course, but not tomorrow

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,894 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    Are you expecting a massive recession like in 2008...or bigger?

    of course, but not tomorrow

    Perhaps in a few more decades. LOL

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,123 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    In less than five years the FED will own most of the US debt. Unfortunately they will print lots of new money to buy that debt. Mon

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    Are you expecting a massive recession like in 2008...or bigger?

    of course, but not tomorrow

    Whew!!! I though maybe I was late to the party.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,123 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    They buy because they expect to make money.

    That's not greed.

    Wanting more money is classified as greed.

    They sell because they fear they will lose money.

    Fear of losing money is classified as fear.

    You're losing your Knack for twisting words.

    Successful investors are not afraid of losing money. Fear does not drive their decisions.

    Greed is defined as an intense and selfish desire for something. Wants are not always intense and selfish.

    If I choose a bond paying 4% over one paying 3%, my decision was not based on greed. I did not have an intense and selfish desire. My decision is based entirely on reason and rationalization.

    Again, your opinion on why folk make investment decisions, certainly explains why they fail miserably and supports my belief that basing investment decisions on fear and greed is always a poor proposition.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭

    simple: do you trade to make money or lose money? LOL

    Fear and greed

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,123 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    simple: do you trade to make money or lose money? LOL

    Fear and greed

    I guess we'll just have to go with you being consumed by fear and greed as you seem to be quite infatuated. That's a terrible way to live one's life, IMHO.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,894 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    simple: do you trade to make money or lose money? LOL

    Fear and greed

    I guess we'll just have to go with you being consumed by fear and greed as you seem to be quite infatuated. That's a terrible way to live one's life, IMHO.

    It's always fear and greed down in the bunker. It's a beautiful world up here above ground. RGDS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,849 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Again, your opinion on why folk make investment decisions, certainly explains why they fail miserably and supports my belief that basing investment decisions on fear and greed is always a poor proposition.

    Failing miserably? Haha.

    The decision to pick gold or silver has less to do with fear or greed than it does with the desire not to participate in the unholy marriage between the corrupt banking system & its political puppets in gov.com

    The decision to pick a vehicle having a supposed 4% return over one having a supposed 3% return is based entirely upon “the love of money”, is it not?

    The only miserable failing is when you support a banking regime that’s been corrupt from it’s conception and continues to rip people off by issuing debt with no backing or accountability.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    simple: do you trade to make money or lose money? LOL

    Fear and greed

    I guess we'll just have to go with you being consumed by fear and greed as you seem to be quite infatuated. That's a terrible way to live one's life, IMHO.

    My statement was that fear and greed drive INVESTMENT decisions. How you interpret that to mean I said fear and greed drive how one lives speaks volumes on your typical "change the narrative" attempt when you fall on your face.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,123 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    simple: do you trade to make money or lose money? LOL

    Fear and greed

    I guess we'll just have to go with you being consumed by fear and greed as you seem to be quite infatuated. That's a terrible way to live one's life, IMHO.

    My statement was that fear and greed drive INVESTMENT decisions. How you interpret that to mean I said fear and greed drive how one lives speaks volumes on your typical "change the narrative" attempt when you fall on your face.

    Fear and greed might drive your investment decisions and those of the average investor, and if so, explains why their returns suck. Successful investors are not driven by fear and greed.

    Folk who live their lives via fear and greed are usually failures. Folk who live their lives based on logic and reason are usually successful.

    Yeah, it's that simple.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 2, 2024 7:07AM

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    simple: do you trade to make money or lose money? LOL

    Fear and greed

    I guess we'll just have to go with you being consumed by fear and greed as you seem to be quite infatuated. That's a terrible way to live one's life, IMHO.

    My statement was that fear and greed drive INVESTMENT decisions. How you interpret that to mean I said fear and greed drive how one lives speaks volumes on your typical "change the narrative" attempt when you fall on your face.

    Fear and greed might drive your investment decisions and those of the average investor, and if so, explains why their returns suck. Successful investors are not driven by fear and greed.

    Folk who live their lives via fear and greed are usually failures. Folk who live their lives based on logic and reason are usually successful.

    Yeah, it's that simple.

    "Fear and greed" is a decades old oversimplification of wanting to make money and not wanting to lose money in the stock market. It has nothing to do with being afraid of the boogeyman as you seem to be. Warren Buffet once said “be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.”

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,123 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    simple: do you trade to make money or lose money? LOL

    Fear and greed

    I guess we'll just have to go with you being consumed by fear and greed as you seem to be quite infatuated. That's a terrible way to live one's life, IMHO.

    My statement was that fear and greed drive INVESTMENT decisions. How you interpret that to mean I said fear and greed drive how one lives speaks volumes on your typical "change the narrative" attempt when you fall on your face.

    Fear and greed might drive your investment decisions and those of the average investor, and if so, explains why their returns suck. Successful investors are not driven by fear and greed.

    Folk who live their lives via fear and greed are usually failures. Folk who live their lives based on logic and reason are usually successful.

    Yeah, it's that simple.

    ....being afraid of the boogeyman as you seem to be.....

    I am the Boogeyman.

    Boo!!!

    I do love doing that.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • MartinMartin Posts: 965 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb @cohodk

    You two guys crack me up👍🏻

    Martin

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited February 13, 2024 2:16PM

    An unfolding commercial real estate crash could easily become the first domino in regional bank failures. PMs love bank failures.

    Also, a sinking of an oil tanker would drive panic PM buying.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,123 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    An unfolding commercial real estate crash could easily become the first domino in regional bank failures. PMs love bank failures.

    Also, a sinking of an oil tanker would drive panic PM buying.

    There are always more events that "could" happen as opposed to those that "will" happen. And even those that "will" happen have varying degrees of importance or impact on PM prices.

    Just as 1 million kids play football, only a small fraction make the pros and only a small fraction of those become hall of famers. So making decisions on things that "could" happen is usually a fools errand.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    An unfolding commercial real estate crash could easily become the first domino in regional bank failures. PMs love bank failures.

    Also, a sinking of an oil tanker would drive panic PM buying.

    There are always more events that "could" happen as opposed to those that "will" happen. And even those that "will" happen have varying degrees of importance or impact on PM prices.

    Just as 1 million kids play football, only a small fraction make the pros and only a small fraction of those become hall of famers. So making decisions on things that "could" happen is usually a fools errand.

    Well, you did ask "what could happen?"

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,123 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    An unfolding commercial real estate crash could easily become the first domino in regional bank failures. PMs love bank failures.

    Also, a sinking of an oil tanker would drive panic PM buying.

    There are always more events that "could" happen as opposed to those that "will" happen. And even those that "will" happen have varying degrees of importance or impact on PM prices.

    Just as 1 million kids play football, only a small fraction make the pros and only a small fraction of those become hall of famers. So making decisions on things that "could" happen is usually a fools errand.

    Well, you did ask "what could happen?"

    Yup...a million more and maybe we'll have a viable idea.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 1, 2024 6:10PM

    Stagflation oughta do it.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,291 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 7, 2024 8:55AM

    tell ya what’s happened. Blitzdude was wrong like our judicial system and it is showing big cracks in it , ever since they stole Joan Langbord’s coins . (10 1933 Saints). It put a curse on ‘em.
    https://www.coinworld.com/news/us-coins/langboard-family-loses-appeal-1933-double-eagle-case.html

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