Go Platinum!!

DoubleEagle59

Platinum up $22 today and Palladium down $19.

You think Platinum will overtake Palladium in 2024?

jmski52

Did someone come to their senses and decide to use platinum instead of palladium?

GoldFinger1969

@DoubleEagle59 said:
Platinum up $22 today and Palladium down $19.
You think Platinum will overtake Palladium in 2024?

They'll both be cut in half in the next few years, so who cares ?

jmski52

They'll both be cut in half in the next few years, so who cares?

That implies that the industrial and the automotive use for effective catalysts are going to decline, which is simply not going to happen.

cohodk

@jmski52 said:
They'll both be cut in half in the next few years, so who cares?

That implies that the industrial and the automotive use for effective catalysts are going to decline, which is simply not going to happen.

No it doesn't. Demand for platinum is the same as it was 15b
years ago, yet the privlce has been cut in half.

jmski52

Except that the automotive industry went primarily to palladium. So that had nothing to do with the price drop?

I hope you give better advice to your clients, if you still have any.

blitzdude

Pt/Pd still just overpriced gutter. Expect even lower prices down the road. I might consider buying one of those US mint Mercury knock offs when they get down around the $500 range just to have one. RGDS!

cohodk

@jmski52 said:
Except that the automotive industry went primarily to palladium. So that had nothing to do with the price drop?

I hope you give better advice to your clients, if you still have any.

Total demand for plat hasn't changed. So why the price drop?

I'm just countering your ignorsnt claim that price can't drop because demand won't decline. I'd really hate to be one of your clients.

jmski52

When the auto industry switched from platinum to palladium, that is when the price of platinum started dropping and the price of palladium started rising.

Now you’re trying to tell me that demand for platinum stayed the same. Hogwash.

cohodk

https://www.statista.com/statistics/418216/global-platinum-demand/

Global demand is the same as in 2010, 11, 12, 13 yet the price is now 50% lower.

Are you drinking tonight?

bigjpst

I thought that mining problems in or around 2008 caused the large spike in platinum pricing. That’s when the manufacturers started to change over to palladium because it was 1/5 the price. Seem to remember the instructor in my Ca. Clean air course discussing this when I was training for my emissions inspector license. Maybe, maybe not. Don’t have the price charts to prove it.

jmski52

I don’t see any demand data in your chart. I see the price action and trading volumes, but no industry consumption data, particularly in autos. Your link is subscription only.

Auto demand has always been a major factor with platinum. If the demand is constant since 2013-2014 and the price is half of what it was then, it’s only because other industrial demand has replaced auto demand while at the same time supply has been more than sufficient for the rest of its industrial uses.

bigjpst has it right. The mining problems included an electricity shortage that affected mine ventilation & cooling systems, in addition to riots over wages and civil unrest in general.

The switch over to palladium is what caused the drop in price, whether coho thinks so or not.

He can contend all day long that demand wasn’t affected, but it certainly was.

DoubleEagle59

I always find the back and forth arguments extremely interesting, especially when their reasons are so strongly opposed to each other.

I've been buying platinum lately, so it's obvious what side I'm on......but I try to always keep an open mind and listen to the views that are opposite mine.

cohodk

@jmski52 said:
I don’t see any demand data in your chart. I see the price action and trading volumes, but no industry consumption data, particularly in autos. Your link is subscription only.

Auto demand has always been a major factor with platinum. If the demand is constant since 2013-2014 and the price is half of what it was then, it’s only because other industrial demand has replaced auto demand while at the same time supply has been more than sufficient for the rest of its industrial uses.

bigjpst has it right. The mining problems included an electricity shortage that affected mine ventilation & cooling systems, in addition to riots over wages and civil unrest in general.

The switch over to palladium is what caused the drop in price, whether coho thinks so or not.

He can contend all day long that demand wasn’t affected, but it certainly was.

That's not what I am c9ntending at all.

You made a comment that plat price can't drop in half unless there is a decline in demand. Which I challenged and showed with proof from different sources that the price has dropped in half with the same demand.

Your assertion was proven wrong. Again.

FWIW---I actually like plat and have purchased from fellow board members.

Again, your jaded, biased and contemptuous views prevent intellectual growth.

jmski52

No need to keep getting personal with your remarks. You haven't posted any demand data from multiple sources and the one source you did cite isn't visible without a subscription.

So, you aren't contending that platinum demand wasn't affected by the switch to palladium, but in the same breath you say that the demand is the same. Therefore the loss in demand from autos was replaced by other industrial demand. So what?

The loss of demand from autos was significant enough to upset the balance between supply & demand, so the price dropped. Not hard to see.

Goldminers

The recent publication of the platinum quarterly of the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) also states that there has, in addition, been a strong 14% recovery in automotive production and, of most significance, ongoing growth in platinum-for-palladium substitution.

The platinum deficit trend continues, with a shortfall of 353 000 oz forecast for 2024, and this year’s deficit going beyond the one-million-ounce mark. Both mining and recycling supply are expected to be well below pre-Covid levels in 2023 and 2024, and investment demand is forecast to remain positive next year.

Platinum is in a platinum/rhodium alloy that is used in glass bushings for the production of fiberglass. It’s also used in the casting vessels for fiberglass and for high-quality liquid-crystal display (LCD) screens. Just specifically for the glass sector, it’s worth noting that we’re expecting a doubling of installed wind turbine capacity between now and 2030, which is quite a significant increase, and the blades for those wind turbines will largely be made of fiberglass that requires the platinum-containing facilities for the manufacturing of the fiberglass that goes into those.

Also encouraging are new proton exchange membrane electrolizers, which use platinum catalysts for the production of green hydrogen, and stationary fuel cells, which contain platinum catalysts for taking the green hydrogen as an energy carrier and use it to generate electricity.

Industrial demand for 2023 is predicted to surge by 14% year-on-year (317 000 oz) reaching 2,652,000 oz, the strongest year on record. Glass demand lifted by more than 50%, or 251 000 oz, and the chemical sector by 10%, or 68 000 oz-plus. While industrial demand is forecast to fall 11% in 2024, it will nevertheless be the third-highest level on record at 2 367 000 oz.

Engineering News & Mining Weekly: Mined supply is expected to remain low in 2023 and will increase by just 3% next year in 2024. Automotive demand for platinum will jump by 14% this year and continue to increase in 2024, although more modestly. We’re seeing more hybrid vehicles being produced than in the past. Those vehicles are running more of the time with the engine turned off than a conventional ICE vehicle. When the engine is turned off frequently, the vehicle operates lower engine temperature and to meet the limits to emissions, higher PGM loadings are needed to ensure that those vehicles remain compliant. That’s typically a 10% to 15% increase over a normal ICE vehicle. China has tightened the emission standards for the heavy-duty vehicles and brought in emissions control standards for the off-road vehicle category, which results in a big increase in platinum group metal (PGM) loadings.

Nornickel, the Russian nickel and palladium mining and smelting company, has a large smelter rebuild that was originally planned to be conducted in the fourth quarter of 2023. That’s been deferred to next year. Several producers including Stillwater in the US have announced significant layoffs as some mining shafts are no longer profitable. South Africa still has an energy shortage impacting mining production.

I am not selling any of my platinum coins yet because I believe we will see some better pricing in the future.

DoubleEagle59

Wow......quite the informative post....GMiner!!

jmski52

Thanks, Goldminer. Very good info!

Looks like I won't be in a hurry to sell a bunch of platinum.