The Price of Silver, Big Move in '24
Desert Moon
Posts: 5,884 ✭✭✭✭✭
Desert Moon
Posts: 5,884 ✭✭✭✭✭
Desert Moon
Posts: 5,884 ✭✭✭✭✭
Comments
I wouldn't put too much stock into that article, I think common sense will prevail in 2024.
Wisdom has been chasing you but, you've always been faster
Melt value of silver halves still less than $9. I don’t see much upside without runaway inflation.
Silver market insider information:
What has to happen for silver to make a big move in '24 is for me to sell all of my meager silver holdings in '23.
Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.-Albert Einstein
Silver ran up to about $50.00/ounce in 1979-1980 and again in 2011 (about 31 years apart).
With the above as my guide, I predict that silver will not go up to $50.00/ounce again (the "Big Move") until sometime in 2042, 31 years after 2011.
Prove me wrong
Lots of Silver above ground in storage. Which the fanboys always neglect to mention.
Perhaps.
I'm thinking that you can make a few brand new cars with a silver half dollar. How high would it have to go up before Ford curtailed automobile production?
Let's not forget how much metal prices are likely manipulated.
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
I am thinking that silver may hit $30.00 per ounce in 2024.
I also would not count on that happening.
I always think it funny that people believe that anyone would bother to manipulate prices for DECADES. What would be the point?
jm herez the point............
There's no point in doing it for decades. The monied interests can make money at any price, no matter which direction the price is moving.
Seriously, what would be the point of trying to constantly manipulate a trillion dollar market to permanently suppress the price. Even if they were to manipulate it, it's s likely to be artificially high as it would be to low.
Love @SanctionII’s analysis.
Having lived thru both $50/oz silver runs, over the decades I have read so many ‘silver poised to breakout’ articles talking about rising demand, falling supply, and ALWAYS some mention of the Federal Reserve.
The names change, but the essence of the fable is timeless.
Of course silver will double in price (eventually), and 2042 just might be the magic year!
30+ years coin shop experience (ret.) Coins, bullion, currency, scrap & interesting folks. Loved every minute!
Same hype, different day.
This is how I see it...
The day I make a huge silver buy will be the day that silver is at its high point before it plummets the next day.
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Not trying to prove a thing
, although, one should try buying one of these bars for less than $50 per ounce. It would be fortunate.
As a numismatist, we really should be thinking outside the box and bar.
In a free market the price can go up or down and it's movement is so unpredictable that it has been said that every market will do whatever is necessary to make everyone wrong.
Manipulated markets are not permitted to find the balance between supply and demand. The manipulators always know in what direction prices are headed and this is why the big banks NEVER lose money but only make money.
The cause of this manipulation appears to be the short sighted need of silver users to obtain metal cheaply and short sighted need of government to maintain the illusion that the dollar is far more valuable than it really is with debt approaching a quadrillion dollars and derivative exposures approaching quintillions. "Money", the value of money, is strictly tied to the perceptions of its users and not any action taken by the FED or the banks. If all the markets were allowed to find equilibrium things would be somewhat different. If gold and silver were rationalized the dollar would be significantly lower.
Be this as it may the fact is that new uses for silver are multiplying every day and old uses are expanding. Mine production isn't even keeping up with consumption any longer and this is in part caused by the destruction of metal caused by the manipulation. Despite the huge mine production in the last 25 years much of this metal has been frittered away for frivolous reasons since it has been "pretty" and low priced. Instead of having billions and billions of ounces in stockpiles it is sitting in landfills and unrecoverable.
I'm with you on this scenario. That would be my misfortune.
Disagree. No one but coin collectors measure the value of the dollar by checking silver prices.
People have been saying that PMs are manipulated LOWER, never higher, for 40 years. Do you know what the cost of doing that would be? It's an urban legend, no more no less.
In 1960, the biggest uses for silver were the massive amounts devoted to coinage, worldwide use for household flatware and tableware, and to a lesser extent, film for your camera.
Since then, what’s most obvious is the destruction of everyday demand for silver.
Today, your spare coin jar is full of coppernickel coins instead of silver, your cell phone (camera) has maybe 15c worth of silver in it, and your TV and car just a scant bit more.
Unless you are a stacker, or wear a LOT of sterling jewelry, your household probably contains a tiny fraction of the amount of silver your grandparents had.
30+ years coin shop experience (ret.) Coins, bullion, currency, scrap & interesting folks. Loved every minute!
Haven't you heard!!! Silver is poised for a huge run up!!! Silver stocks are at an all time low!!! There has never been a better time to buy gold!!! Who to believe? Chuck Woolery, William Devane, Bozo the Clown? Balanced investments are great with a mix of stocks, bonds, precious metals, but nothing is more satisfying than holding your coins in your hands!
I’m getting a reverse mortgage to buy my silver off of QVC because Tom Selleck says he won’t steer me wrong…..and that guy on QVC says .999999999% pure silver is a real steal at $84 an ounce and all the old people believe him…..lol
That is the key - 'free market'. Problem is, someone is always trying to manipulate the market, no, many are always trying to manipulate the market - metals, pigs feet, cranberries, stocks, bonds, oil, you name it. So there is such a thing as a free market? Probably only partially - supply and demand is there also, but there is clearly manipulations even with S and D...............
No, but if gold approached $10,000 per ounce even your banker would be looking into it.
The day you see silver mines in the US opening back up, you will know demand is up. Until then, the huge mines in Mexico and Poland are more than meeting the world’s very thin demand for silver.
There are some silver mines operating in Alaska and Idaho. A lot of silver is produced as a by-product in copper mining operations.
The pardon is for tyrants. They like to declare pardons on holidays, such as the birthday of the dictator, or Christ, or the Revolution. Dictators should be encouraged to keep it up. And we should be encouraged to remember that the promiscuous dispensation of clemency is not a sign of political liberality. It is instead one of those valuable, identifying marks of tyranny.
Charles Krauthammer
Industrial silver demand set an all-time (ALL-TIME) record last year and is up 20% since 2014 which includes a 50% increase in use in electronics. I think "very thin" understates it.
https://www.silverinstitute.org/silver-supply-demand/
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/global-industrial-demand-for-silver-hits-record-in-2021-and-is-set-to-extend-gains-this-year-11650457776
Supply is more than enough to cover demand at this point. Silver is not rare. There are billions of ounces in already developed mines that are simply sitting there because the demand doesn’t justify the capital expenditure to remove it.
The price of silver in 1964 was $1.29.
The price of silver today is $24.08.
But the dollar has lost nearly 90% of its purchasing power since 1964.
So the inflation-adjusted price of silver today (in 1964 dollars) is $2.45.
This means that the purchasing power of a silver stack has not even doubled in the past 59 years.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
That is true. But the same can be said for virtually any commodity. Supply almost always matches demand, that's the way economics works. But demand is increasing significantly, so calling it "very thin demand" seems inaccurate, especially since industrial demand is a significant contribution to overall demand, unlike gold.
Silver is primarily an industrial metal, unlike gold. Demand is set by the industrial uses for silver, which is a function of how many products use it, the amount those products use and overall market demand for the products that contain silver. Demand has been essentially flat for two decades. When demand increases, that drives the price up, but only temporarily. The reality with silver is that there is a price point for things like wiring or solar where it hits a price point that manufacturers then immediately shift over to alternate, less-effective cheaper metals. You see it with solar panels, for example. Manufacturers will switch to copper once silver hits a certain price point.
I'm not arguing that there is a shortage of silver or that the price needs to increase. Higher prices would increase recycling as well. But I still bristle at calling the market thin. Any photovoltaic substitution is potentially problematic due to ohmic differences as well as reactivity issues. There's a reason silver is preferable and they don't make the cheaper substitution now.
My understanding is every mine in the world that can produce silver at a profit are in operation. There may well be a few greenfield sites that are not yet permitted.
This is largely irrelevant anyway because most silver is a by product of other mining.
And right now production is keeping up with industrial demand.
It's probable that industrial demand will accelerate in coming years as more and more4e new products require the metal.
We can't recover the billions of ounces wasted by low prices over the last 40 years of high production. And we can't substantially increase production in the foreseeable future without creating gluts of other metals. It is simply unprofitable to mine more copper to get silver when silver is a tiny percentage of total value.
Silver and gold have been terrible investments for more than 500 years.
Silver has done very poorly for at least 5000 years.
This may "never" change but I'm still keeping gold as insurance against the recklessness of Congress and silver because I'm betting the genius of man causes explosive growth in demand.
Silver has some things going for it:
1) it is the most thermally-conductive metal.
2) It has the highest electrical conductivity of any metal (at "room" temperature).
3) It has the highest sensitivity to light (that is why it was the basis for non-digital photography).
4) Silver has the highest reflectivity of any polished metal.
5) Silver has the best anti-microbial contact properties of any stable non-toxic substance.
Anything that copper can do, silver can do better (but at higher cost, of course).
5,000 years ago, the market for silver was pretty "thin". So a comparison between that time frame and today doesn't mean a lot.
Silver seems more like an alternative currency than an "investment".
The purchasing power of silver has been relatively constant (the silver price generally keeps up with inflation, in the long run).
I don't disagree.
Very little silver traded and the markets were so inefficient in those days that the value of silver varied wildly from place to place. In Europe it was about a quarter the price of gold and in Egypt and with their trading partners it was worth more than gold. These metals were quite valuable however. Copper as well was apparently quite valuable by today's standards with a man's yearly work worth only several pounds of copper. Bronze was more valuable yet until they found alloys to produce it intentionally sometime between 7000 and 5500 years ago.
To say records are sketchy is an exaggeration. History didn't really begin until 4000 years ago. What we know of earlier times is mostly interpretation and extrapolation.
Disagree. No one but coin collectors measure the value of the dollar by checking silver prices.
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It's pointless to try to convince those who want to believe the manipulation claim. Here are some reasons why it makes no sense, and this is just to start:
1) Gold has left silver in the dust since the early 70's. Gold is a far more important monetary metal than silver. If the same claim is made for gold - as it is repeatedly - it sure has "succeeded".
2) Like you said, there isn't much if any reason to believe that anyone outside of coin collectors and "metal bugs" thinks of silver, at least in the US. Yes, it's possible for someone to never think of silver even once, in their entire life.
3) Most silver buyers probably buy the "paper" version mostly due to the buy-sell spread, but also the relative value which makes it less practical to physically store and transport.
5) The much smaller market (versus gold) makes it less practical or impractical for the actually wealthy to take a meaningful position relative to their net worth.
6) Prices aren't determined by "fundamentals". It's set by marginal buyers acting on their beliefs, whatever that may be. The reason they use to justify their decision (to themself) is irrelevant.
I consider silver relatively cheap at current prices versus other "investments". However, the buy-sell spreads and less favorable tax treatment are a big negative.
I think the manipulation is of the people who have been made to believe the manipulation theory. It's a cornerstone argument of the hawkers who are always saying that gold/silver is ready to break out.
The gift of prophecy in the modern world is an illusion. A click bait tag line to get views. Silver will do what greed and lust demand it to do, yet on its' own terms.
I guess it’s just a matter of opinion as to what someone believes is a thin market. I define “thinness” as a function of supply and demand. The market for copper is enormous (26.1 million metric tons in 2022 vs 38,568 metric tons for silver), but I don’t think very many people here would make an argument that investing in copper makes sense. The primary reason it doesn’t make any sense is because there is more than enough copper to supply the almost 30M metric ton demand. Similarly, there is more than enough silver to supply the 40K metric ton demand (which is order of magnitudes lower than the demand for copper). The people that are making money off of silver are silver producers and middle men that are marketing it to retail customers. The only thing that will change that dynamic is if supply outstrips demand in a big way. Until then, retail silver buyers will be sitting dead in the water.
Gold to Silver Ratio (GSR) has far a while now been screaming "time to turn the gold into silver." Silver is a buy.
Repetition of ignorance is ignorance raised to the power two.
I don't think silver is a good investment with the potential to explode in value. I'm pretty sure any price increase will be linear and not exponential.
It seems more likely to me that silver moves in small predictable ways.
The substantial truth doctrine is an important defense in defamation law that allows individuals to avoid liability if the gist of their statement was true.
Wasn’t long ago when I started accumulating silver bullion at ~9 dollars / oz spot price (not including the premium) so all in all it’s not been a terrible investment. Stock market has done better - but no one knows how much or silver I own, if any - and that’s not true with most other investments. Silver is also very liquid. CDs not so much.
As mentioned above - as a metal it has many favorable characteristics. There is a lot of surplus above ground but below ground the access is harder and harder to reach. Costs will have to come up to extract these deeper and more difficult areas to reach. Just my 2 cents —