Greysheet's basis for pricing

logger7

I've been meaning to ask about the old Greysheets when they were sheets in format. Formerly they said that even if a coin is raw and uncertified the Greysheet pricing was applicable. However have you known dealers who would base their buy prices of uncertified common issues on Greysheet? The risk is too great and the upside moneywise is too small. Dealers and collectors want certified coins.

I liked the way the Greysheet 10 or so years ago had percentages on all certified coins, from PCGS to NGC to Anacs, PCI, ICG and others as to what percentage the sales of a particular certification were bringing on recorded sales, from 30% and 40% to 100% and above. Where are we at now on what buyers are willing to pay based on Greysheet pricing?

coastaljerseyguy

When I sold a solid grade raw Morgan @ the local B&M, the best I would get is 10% back of bid, and that is if it was a semi to key date. A generic 81S would be more 15-20% back, even if the dealer agreed with the grade.

I remember those %s on the first page, High, Low and Average bids for sight-seen coins vs Greysheet. PCGS always the highest, (80+ %) but thought ANACS was too low, (mid-high 50%) esp when all that was sold was the white soap boxes. But back then dealers didn't want to stock ANACs in inventory. Was based on 10 series (didn't mention which) with 2 grades sampled. Much better system today with online 'sold' auctions.

JohnF

@logger7 said:
I've been meaning to ask about the old Greysheets when they were sheets in format. Formerly they said that even if a coin is raw and uncertified the Greysheet pricing was applicable. However have you known dealers who would base their buy prices of uncertified common issues on Greysheet? The risk is too great and the upside moneywise is too small. Dealers and collectors want certified coins.

I liked the way the Greysheet 10 or so years ago had percentages on all certified coins, from PCGS to NGC to Anacs, PCI, ICG and others as to what percentage the sales of a particular certification were bringing on recorded sales, from 30% and 40% to 100% and above. Where are we at now on what buyers are willing to pay based on Greysheet pricing?

Unless specified with a separate Bluesheet value (offered online due to space constraints) Greysheet represents a wholesale value for any coin that meets the grade. This means a lot of things depending on the situation. For example, high grade mint state gold must be 3rd party graded. Circulated collector coins don't necessarily require independent grading. Only experience in the market can really define how to apply this, which is why we are super-transparent with auction data and so on.

As for the percentages chart on the old Bluesheet for multiple grading services, I can explain it this way. When I first took over in 2015 I asked how these percentages were derived and told, that they were nothing more than "educated guesses." I do not believe that educated guesses are an appropriate way to estimate the percent-basis for assigning to all US coins for different graders. This is a very dangerous approach and probably not something I can properly explain in this short space. Maybe on a podcast sometime...

John

NickelMike

Greysheet feels outdated to me. I believe eBay offers a more timely and accurate idea of price. Take whatever % of current of eBay sale price to buy at and there ya go.

jmlanzaf

@NickelMike said:
Greysheet feels outdated to me. I believe eBay offers a more timely and accurate idea of price. Take whatever % of current of eBay sale price to buy at and there ya go.

Ebay is but one venue and will not provide comps for all coins. Every dealer I know uses Greysheet. It's not because we don't know about ebay.

Cougar1978

Greysheet is a wholesale publication and is also the basis for CDN Publications CPG market value / retail pricing. Dealer wholesale offers could be 10 pct or 20 pct back of bid, etc depending on the dealer, market conditions, or demand of specific item. I have both CDN bid and CPG market value on my phone. Using CDN/CPG is a consistent approach.

cladking

Coin pricing is highly complex and no guide can keep up with all the nuances in every market but Greysheet still defines price in "every" market except where buyer and seller are experts.

Cougar1978

For US coins CDN is the guide used by investors and professionals in the marketplace. Whether in the bidding process, as a markup platform, or simply extrusion of CPG source for competitor pricing.

As an accounting exercise for my class at that time I had my accounting students extrude the markup factor above CDN Bid for various advertisers in NN and CW. The seller price / CDN bid = that sellers avg markup factor (muf). An excel spreadsheet with a table by seller and item (major dealers, etc). Then a bar graph showing the sellers and computation of the average markup factor. A brief description of items was also required. So blips in avg could be identified, analyzed -PQ, toners, etc. I still have it. It ranged from 1.30 to 1.50. The numbers don’t lie. So No 10c on the dollar does not cut it in the coin business especially when variable and fixed overhead costs are added. So anyone telling you it’s much less IMO wager they are possibly ignorant of the process, basic accounting, can’t perform basic math, somebody’s lackey, or simply pushing their own agenda. An exception could be some mega millionaire high volume bullion dealer, etc. I am working on a similar table for my internal use for eBay sellers CAC CDN bid vs their price.

Cougar1978

Lol at u too.

lermish

@Cougar1978 said:
For US coins CDN is the guide used by investors and professionals in the marketplace. Whether in the bidding process, as a markup platform, or simply extrusion of CPG source for competitor pricing.

As an accounting exercise for my class at that time I had my accounting students extrude the markup factor above CDN Bid for various advertisers in NN and CW. The seller price / CDN bid = that sellers avg markup factor (muf). An excel spreadsheet with a table by seller and item (major dealers, etc). Then a bar graph showing the sellers and computation of the average markup factor. A brief description of items was also required. So blips in avg could be identified. I still have it. It ranged from 1.30 to 1.50. The numbers don’t lie. So No 10c on the dollar does not cut it in the coin business especially when variable and fixed overhead costs are added. So anyone telling you it’s much less IMO wager they are possibly ignorant of the process, basic accounting, can’t perform basic math, somebody’s lackey, or simply pushing their own agenda. I am working on a similar table for my internal use for eBay sellers CAC CDN bid vs their price.

And where and what, pray tell, do you teach?

Cougar1978

What’s the matter you can’t work your own numbers?

lermish

@Cougar1978 said:
What’s the matter you can’t work your own numbers?

I'm just trying to figure out how much to bet that you didn't write very much of that paragraph.

alefzero

Greysheet works for commodity coins, like common date Morgan dollars. Anyone who is serious and chasing rare coins considers recent sales primarily. And for those so rarely on the market, a price guide would be a wild-ass guess, at best. Just like auction estimates on prime rarities. Often, they might as well be opening bids. But so much goes into it, depending on the specific market. How many collectors are buying at that level and need that coin? Provenance, presentation, appropriateness to a set, ... many things can warrant a premium. For something thinly traded, it always comes down to the resilience of the seller and buyer.

privatecoin

Sorry to bump an old thread, but how would you price ANACS graded coins vs the grey sheet price?

Cougar1978

Hey now I am proud of my ANACS coins!
They (CDN) have discussed how they arrive / calculate it would suggest you research. CDN Bid / CPG is right on. Certainly there are coins that are PQ but that’s in the range of the individual dealer in arriving at retail pricing / bump up.

The higher of CPG or cost plus works for me then out to do battle from my table on the bourse. Of course everything negotiable. IMO auc sales can be volatile so go by CDN who has researched that. Now on certain coins many situations can warrant a higher asking price.

But in reality price a lot of stuff bid plus 5-10 pct see if lookers even alive.

seatedlib3991

@privatecoin. I am not sure if you are asking a specific person or just want personal results in general. i have sold a few dozen ANAC coins over the years. The age of the holder does seem to play a small role. The old small white holders will often times bring a small price increase. The later blue and yellow holders tend to bring slightly weaker prices. I will say this though. I find the correlation between listed CDN price and actual selling price tends to be more uniform if the coins are in PCGS or NGC holders. I have had ANAC coins sell for over twice the CDN and for 50 % of CDN. When it comes to ANAC coins the coin itself tends to play a much larger role. I know everyone says buy the coin not the holder but i feel more buyers actually apply that rule to ANAC coins. Just my personal experience. James

toyz4geo

Personally, I find the whole price guide thing a bit confusing. Case in point I have an NGC graded 1998-P Jefferson graded MS67 6FS, a top pop, 0 graded higher. Greysheet says $450, CPG is $575. PCGS guide for their MS67FS is $750. All is ok till you pull up NGC valuation. $195. While I understand the market pretty much sets the market, what does one do with such a discrepancy. I know, it's just a Jefferson nickel but...... inquiring minds would like to know.

SIowhand

The Greysheet’s only value today is as a weapon against the uneducated.

P0CKETCHANGE

@toyz4geo said:
Personally, I find the whole price guide thing a bit confusing. Case in point I have an NGC graded 1998-P Jefferson graded MS67 6FS, a top pop, 0 graded higher. Greysheet says $450, CPG is $575. PCGS guide for their MS67FS is $750. All is ok till you pull up NGC valuation. $195. While I understand the market pretty much sets the market, what does one do with such a discrepancy. I know, it's just a Jefferson nickel but...... inquiring minds would like to know.

I’ve noticed that the guides do get wonky with top pop coins, including moderns. In this case, I would throw out the guides and look at auction comps and active inventory. Here’s what comes up on GC and eBay. Based on this, info I’d peg the retail value somewhere between $100-$120.

logger7

I remember the days when Greysheet listed Anacs, ICG, PCI and other services and the %s they were bringing relative to Greysheet. Generally Bluesheet has become a mirror of Greysheet from the coins I have looked up do to the evaporation of "sight-unseen" coins.

privatecoin

Thanks everyone.

jmlanzaf

@toyz4geo said:
Personally, I find the whole price guide thing a bit confusing. Case in point I have an NGC graded 1998-P Jefferson graded MS67 6FS, a top pop, 0 graded higher. Greysheet says $450, CPG is $575. PCGS guide for their MS67FS is $750. All is ok till you pull up NGC valuation. $195. While I understand the market pretty much sets the market, what does one do with such a discrepancy. I know, it's just a Jefferson nickel but...... inquiring minds would like to know.

How often do they sell? Price guides are not useful for thinly traded markets.

OldeTowneCoinShoppe

@logger7 said:
I remember the days when Greysheet listed Anacs, ICG, PCI and other services and the %s they were bringing relative to Greysheet.

That was never what those percents represented. They were intended to represent what percent of each service's coins fetched greysheet value.

JohnF

@OldeTowneCoinShoppe said:

@logger7 said:
I remember the days when Greysheet listed Anacs, ICG, PCI and other services and the %s they were bringing relative to Greysheet.

That was never what those percents represented. They were intended to represent what percent of each service's coins fetched greysheet value.

Those percentages had no basis in reality, which is why we dropped them immediately when we took over pricing at Greysheet in 2015. Turns out the numbers were just made up. Let's say the % of ANACS value to PCGS was 72% at one time. Is that supposed to apply to all coins in all grades? 1909-S VDB in AU58 is worth 72% of Greysheet? I don't think so...

John

jmlanzaf

@JohnF said:

@OldeTowneCoinShoppe said:

@logger7 said:
I remember the days when Greysheet listed Anacs, ICG, PCI and other services and the %s they were bringing relative to Greysheet.

That was never what those percents represented. They were intended to represent what percent of each service's coins fetched greysheet value.

Those percentages had no basis in reality, which is why we dropped them immediately when we took over pricing at Greysheet in 2015. Turns out the numbers were just made up. Let's say the % of ANACS value to PCGS was 72% at one time. Is that supposed to apply to all coins in all grades? 1909-S VDB in AU58 is worth 72% of Greysheet? I don't think so...

John

There's not a single price in any guide that applies to all coins in that grade. The global average, as you say, wasn't particularly helpful in pricing a specific coin. However, i did find it a useful gadget of general market sentiment.

JohnF

There's not a single price in any guide that applies to all coins in that grade. The global average, as you say, wasn't particularly helpful in pricing a specific coin. However, i did find it a useful gadget of general market sentiment.

I would agree with you if we had confidence that it meant anything. Nobody at CDN could explain where the value came from and we feel it is inappropriate to mis-represent data in this manner. The fact is, there aren't enough known data points for ANACS and ICG for us to re-instate these percentages.

jmlanzaf

@JohnF said:

There's not a single price in any guide that applies to all coins in that grade. The global average, as you say, wasn't particularly helpful in pricing a specific coin. However, i did find it a useful gadget of general market sentiment.

I would agree with you if we had confidence that it meant anything. Nobody at CDN could explain where the value came from and we feel it is inappropriate to mis-represent data in this manner. The fact is, there aren't enough known data points for ANACS and ICG for us to re-instate these percentages.

Thank you for responding. I didn't actually mean to suggest you bring it back. The relative populations of the different services are now so skewed that there is definitely no statistically meaningful data. 20 years ago, there was more of a mix.

logger7

PCGS Coinfacts covers both PCGS and NGC results, including the option to click-on ebay to see the data there. Ebay results go back around 90 days currently, however PCGS has been capturing results for years now. I don't see why it would be so difficult to do so with eBay results for Anacs and Icg. Of course there are shill and cancelled auctions but that applies to the top two services. It would be an interesting data capture to do Anacs and Icg with statistical weighing vs. NGC and PCGS.

Cougar1978

I don’t think what somebody gave something away for on eBay is even a basis for proper retail pricing anyway nor would even consider somebody’s low ball offer based on that in trying haggle lol. I know the wholesaler is at CDN bid plus 5pct at his lowest. An A coin they can pay the money I am asking or walk anyway. I don’t care what their trying low ball me based on Rolf. My compass for show retail is CDN Bid plus…..PQ marked up higher. I am not joking I am there to come out ahead of the Biz fixed Opex, inventory cost, show expense: positive GM) . If you can’t even do that (except the the occasional bad show) then your a joke on the bourse anyway.

jmlanzaf

@Cougar1978 said:
I don’t think what somebody gave something away for on eBay is even a basis for proper retail pricing anyway nor would even consider somebody’s low ball offer based on that in trying haggle lol. I know the wholesaler is at CDN bid plus 5pct at his lowest. An A coin they can pay the money I am asking or walk anyway. I don’t care what their trying low ball me based on Rolf. My compass for show retail is CDN Bid plus…..PQ marked up higher. I am not joking I am there to come out ahead of the Biz fixed Opex, inventory cost, show expense: positive GM) . If you can’t even do that (except the the occasional bad show) then your a joke on the bourse anyway.

There are a lot of ways to be a joke in the bourse. Good old Rolf can price his coins at whatever he wants. That does NOT, however, make ebay sales data meaningless. It is the biggest coin market in the world, after all.

lermish

@jmlanzaf said:

@Cougar1978 said:
I don’t think what somebody gave something away for on eBay is even a basis for proper retail pricing anyway nor would even consider somebody’s low ball offer based on that in trying haggle lol. I know the wholesaler is at CDN bid plus 5pct at his lowest. An A coin they can pay the money I am asking or walk anyway. I don’t care what their trying low ball me based on Rolf. My compass for show retail is CDN Bid plus…..PQ marked up higher. I am not joking I am there to come out ahead of the Biz fixed Opex, inventory cost, show expense: positive GM) . If you can’t even do that (except the the occasional bad show) then your a joke on the bourse anyway.

There are a lot of ways to be a joke in the course. Good old Rolf can price his coins at whatever he wants. That does NOT, however, make ebay sales data meaningless. It is the biggest coin market in the world, after all.

your making me Roll on laughing floor!

WinLoseWin

@lermish said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@Cougar1978 said:
I don’t think what somebody gave something away for on eBay is even a basis for proper retail pricing anyway nor would even consider somebody’s low ball offer based on that in trying haggle lol. I know the wholesaler is at CDN bid plus 5pct at his lowest. An A coin they can pay the money I am asking or walk anyway. I don’t care what their trying low ball me based on Rolf. My compass for show retail is CDN Bid plus…..PQ marked up higher. I am not joking I am there to come out ahead of the Biz fixed Opex, inventory cost, show expense: positive GM) . If you can’t even do that (except the the occasional bad show) then your a joke on the bourse anyway.

There are a lot of ways to be a joke in the course. Good old Rolf can price his coins at whatever he wants. That does NOT, however, make ebay sales data meaningless. It is the biggest coin market in the world, after all.

your making me Roll on laughing floor!

Just don't Rolf all over the floor.

Cougar1978

Ditto please not on bourse room floor I might, trip step on somebody to avoid falling / then spilling hot coffee on them. Then the hassle of having go back to get a replacement cup of Java Lol.