Has PCGS already experienced the "Golden Age" of grading and services or has it yet to come?
braddick
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Many have thought perhaps the Golden Age of PCGS was around the time period of 1991. Submissions were booming yet turnaround times not too crazy. Coins were graded with a consistency that pleased both dealers and collectors alike. The slabs looked good too and the formation of the Registry was a bonus and a plus.
Others may think PCGS's Golden Age of grading is right on the horizon. What with further competition from CACG, PCGS is perhaps prepared to continue with the hiring of high level experienced graders and personnel. That's more 'inside baseball' than I am prevy too, but I can see that positive reaction of PCGS as genuinely happening.
Edited to add:
So, in your opinion- has the Golden Age come and gone or is it yet to transpire?
peacockcoins
Comments
I feel that the coin grading industry is mature with little room for growth. The competition from CACG is simply going to redistribute the existing market share. PCGS and NGC both left the door open for competition from CACG with slow turn around times and grading standards.
Rest assured the grading industry has plans for the collector. We just don't know what they are yet.
Coin collecting has been around for centuries and it likely will be around for many decades into the future. As long as people desire to collect coins, there will be businesses that cater to the wants, needs and desires of collectors. Coin grading is such a business and PCGS will figure out how to keep/increase its market share into the future.
As long as collectors perceive:
1. that having coins graded/slabbed by PCGS provides "value" to the collector that is equal to or that exceeds the "cost" (in money, time and going through the process); and 2. that coins graded/slabbed by PCGS are "better" than coins graded/slabbed by other grading servicesPCGS will succeed.
The level of its success will depend on the hobby continuing to maintain/increase the number of collectors (both domestically and abroad) and on PCGS's ability to stay on top of hobby trends (and even creating and implementing hobby trends).
As humanity continues to evolve (science, technology, data acquisition, data storage, communication, numismatic history/discovery, AI, etc.) there will be opportunity for PCGS (and other hobby businesses) to provide "new stuff" to the collecting public. Some members of the collecting public will desire to absorb/learn as much of the "new stuff" as they can and participate in the hobby in a wide manner, while others will be content to participate in the hobby in a narrower manner (i for example collect mostly in a niche area).
As far as the concept of a "Golden Age" goes, that concept is in large part something that is fluid and transitory. For example, I suspect that collectors who were in their 60's and 70's when the USA stopped producing gold coins for use in circulation (1933) or when the USA stopped producing 90% and 40% silver coins for use in circulation (generally 1965 and 1969) opined that the "Golden Age" was before those events took place and that nothing worthwhile numismatically was produced thereafter (aka Modern Cr*p).
The point of view described in the previous paragraph clearly would not be held by the majority of collectors of today who were born from and after 1980. Same for collectors not yet born. Today might be viewed as the Golden Age by some. The future may also be viewed as the Golden Age by some.
I think that Doc Brown from Back To The Future was correct when he told Marty McFly and his girlfriend that the future is unwritten and it is what you make of it. The same applies to other persons and businesses alike.
In certain areas (customer service), it might be closer to a dark age. Maybe AI will replace most of the humans and spark a new renaissance or maybe not.
NGC and PCGS have both become retail coin services who largely make their money by slabbing new issues, in bulk, for the retail coin market. I don't know what constitutes a "golden age", you might want to define it. But this is a very different, more stable period than the 1990s previously mentioned.
In the 1990s, grading was new and there was a great sorting out period of the multiple participants. Lots of classic coinage was being graded, broken out, and regraded. There was very little bulk grading (relatively speaking) of things like silver eagles and modern proofs. And registry sets didn't exist yet, so people weren't submitting so many $5 coins to get $35 coffins for the registry.
So, if you want to define "golden age" by the type of material being slabbed, it's largely passed. If you want to define "golden age" by the sheer volume of submissions, this might be it.
When rattlers were the current holder it took 3 months to get your coins back and no cost less than $35.
And you had to go through an autorized dealer as sending your coins in yourself hadn't been set up (yet).
peacockcoins
AI will be the random variable. I wish that I could be around in 50 years to see what the world will be like, and not just in terms of numismatics.
I think the "Golden Age" or whatever you call it was when the TPGs first came into existence through the mid-1990's. You had both PCGS and NGC come into existence within 18 months of one another. While you may have had ANACs and ICG or a few others ANA-affiliated services, these were the ones that quickly established traction. It's not surprising that the holders from those years now command a CAC-like premium.
It even helped contribute to the creation of a Coin Bubble in 1989 !!
Before the TPGs, you had to be either a good grader OR have to rely on a dealer you could trust. Otherwise, you could EASILY find yourself overpaying by a ton for coins. Forget about sliders like AU-58 vs. MS-63....you could have a dealer charging AU-58 or MS-63 money for a coin that was EF-45.
I know the TPGs aren't perfect -- I read the infamous "Franklin Gradeflation Thread" here-- but by and large, they helped increase the information quotient in this hobby and more information is always a good thing. Add in CAC as a final check, and I think most collectors are well-served by professional grading.
I think CACG, AI, and even computerized Hi-Def scanning and grading would NOT be as big a gamechanger as what happened in the late-1980's through the mid-1990's.