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The March 2024 Pivot "The Pivot is on!" Go Daddy Go

SoldiSoldi Posts: 2,013 ✭✭✭✭✭

Oh yeah, this is the big one. Yeah, this is it. It's the No Choice Fed, the box is sealed. Nothing today and Pivots next quarter March 24
So what do you guys think?

Gold will continue to rise right up to March , Silver too?

Or Does this economy mellow out, less jobs and less interest % rates , more housing relief ?

Our Sovereign currency stays strong or weakens

Thanks guys, just looking for opinions on the Fed moves today and to come.

Comments

  • GoldminersGoldminers Posts: 3,563 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The U.S. budget deficit increased $314 billion in the month of November. It will be more than $34 trillion by the end of the year. There are many reasons to keep stacking your choice of precious metals.

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,294 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Goldminers said:
    The U.S. budget deficit increased $314 billion in the month of November. It will be more than $34 trillion by the end of the year. There are many reasons to keep stacking your choice of precious metals.

    Debt is just some digits on a computer screen. At this point in the game its completely meaningless. We've been hearing about debt since some arse clown started spending like a drunken sailor back in the early 80's, damn near half a century ago. Now there may come a day when a complete reset occurs but it certainly will not be in our lifetimes.

    I imagine peeps will still be hoarding the gutter in their bunkers many generations from now talking about the end of the world being near and the 1 Quadrillion deficit. Crazy world! RGDS!!!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,268 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Gold up 2.41%. Not bad. Silver up 4.48%.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,294 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 13, 2023 4:19PM

    @jmski52 said:
    Gold up 2.41%. Not bad. Silver up 4.48%.

    Gold near all-time highs. Not bad. Gutter less than half of it's all time high.

    The Airforce always said "Aim High", Appears the gutter stackers must have missed the memo. THKS!

    PS: I remember swapping gutter for the Au back around 35:1ish. Now it's sitting around 85:1ish. :sunglasses:

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,165 ✭✭✭✭
    edited December 13, 2023 9:27PM

    @Soldi said:
    Oh yeah, this is the big one. Yeah, this is it. It's the No Choice Fed, the box is sealed. Nothing today and Pivots next >quarter March 24
    So what do you guys think?
    Gold will continue to rise right up to March , Silver too?
    Or Does this economy mellow out, less jobs and less interest % rates , more housing relief ?
    Our Sovereign currency stays strong or weakens
    Thanks guys, just looking for opinions on the Fed moves today and to come.

    I was a Fed Watcher nearly 40 years ago so this is old hat for me. Though what is focused on (money supply then) has changed. No CNBC back then, used to use the old Quotron machine on the 46th floor of the Grace Building (didn't have that stain yet :D ).

    Gold can move up to $2,400 by early-2025. Economy will weaken but not too much. Rates may have overdone it on the downside but the fact that we aren't at 5% heading for 6% is what matters. $6 trillion in MMFs ready to come into bond and stock markets.

    Could get 1 or 2 upside surprises on inflation so expect corrections. Market now expects Fed rate cuts, not just a pause. Could be a "sell on the news" event when it happens depending on where the stock and bond markets are at that time.

  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 43,759 ✭✭✭✭✭

    As long as politicians keep spending our money, we're rich. Go buy a politician, today :joy:
    The FED knows how to control them. Just ask Janet Yellen.

  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 7,892 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @blitzdude said:

    @Goldminers said:
    The U.S. budget deficit increased $314 billion in the month of November. It will be more than $34 trillion by the end of the year. There are many reasons to keep stacking your choice of precious metals.

    Debt is just some digits on a computer screen. At this point in the game its completely meaningless. We've been hearing about debt since some arse clown started spending like a drunken sailor back in the early 80's, damn near half a century ago. Now there may come a day when a complete reset occurs but it certainly will not be in our lifetimes.

    I imagine peeps will still be hoarding the gutter in their bunkers many generations from now talking about the end of the world being near and the 1 Quadrillion deficit. Crazy world! RGDS!!!

    .

    Your mortgage might be just be "some digits on a computer screen".
    But if you don't pay it, the authorities will come evict you.

    .

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,165 ✭✭✭✭

    @dcarr said:
    Your mortgage might be just be "some digits on a computer screen".
    But if you don't pay it, the authorities will come evict you.

    60% of homes do NOT have a mortgage.

    80% have one costing less than 4%.

    In New York State, it can take 2-6 years to evict people who steal from banks and landlords.

  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 7,892 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    @dcarr said:
    Your mortgage might be just be "some digits on a computer screen".
    But if you don't pay it, the authorities will come evict you.

    60% of homes do NOT have a mortgage.

    80% have one costing less than 4%.

    In New York State, it can take 2-6 years to evict people who steal from banks and landlords.

    Where did you get that ridiculous "60%" number ?
    Numerous sources state that the number of American homeowners that do not have a mortgage is only 37%.
    And that apparently does not include "home equity" loans. With those included, the percentage in question would be even lower.

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,294 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @dcarr said:

    @blitzdude said:

    @Goldminers said:
    The U.S. budget deficit increased $314 billion in the month of November. It will be more than $34 trillion by the end of the year. There are many reasons to keep stacking your choice of precious metals.

    Debt is just some digits on a computer screen. At this point in the game its completely meaningless. We've been hearing about debt since some arse clown started spending like a drunken sailor back in the early 80's, damn near half a century ago. Now there may come a day when a complete reset occurs but it certainly will not be in our lifetimes.

    I imagine peeps will still be hoarding the gutter in their bunkers many generations from now talking about the end of the world being near and the 1 Quadrillion deficit. Crazy world! RGDS!!!

    .

    Your mortgage might be just be "some digits on a computer screen".
    But if you don't pay it, the authorities will come evict you.

    .

    My mortgage is sitting at 2.75%. The bank is currently paying me 4.35% for $$$ simply parked in a savings account. I could pay off the balance in full right here today but I would be a fool to do so considering they're pay me more than I am paying them. It's a moot point in my world. RGDS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,500 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @dcarr said:
    Your mortgage might be just be "some digits on a computer screen".
    But if you don't pay it, the authorities will come evict you.

    .

    Do you think they shouldnt?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,025 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 17, 2023 9:34AM

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    @dcarr said:
    Your mortgage might be just be "some digits on a computer screen".
    But if you don't pay it, the authorities will come evict you.

    In New York State, it can take 2-6 years to evict people who steal from banks and landlords.

    Renters don't hold the mortgage, their landlord does. And while a non paying tenant can milk his welcome, foreclosure on the mortgage holder comes much quicker.

    The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.

  • SoldiSoldi Posts: 2,013 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @blitzdude said:

    @dcarr said:

    @blitzdude said:

    @Goldminers said:
    The U.S. budget deficit increased $314 billion in the month of November. It will be more than $34 trillion by the end of the year. There are many reasons to keep stacking your choice of precious metals.

    Debt is just some digits on a computer screen. At this point in the game its completely meaningless. We've been hearing about debt since some arse clown started spending like a drunken sailor back in the early 80's, damn near half a century ago. Now there may come a day when a complete reset occurs but it certainly will not be in our lifetimes.

    I imagine peeps will still be hoarding the gutter in their bunkers many generations from now talking about the end of the world being near and the 1 Quadrillion deficit. Crazy world! RGDS!!!

    .

    Your mortgage might be just be "some digits on a computer screen".
    But if you don't pay it, the authorities will come evict you.

    .

    My mortgage is sitting at 2.75%. The bank is currently paying me 4.35% for $$$ simply parked in a savings account. I could pay off the balance in full right here today but I would be a fool to do so considering they're pay me more than I am paying them. It's a moot point in my world. RGDS!

    Have you ever checked amortization on a mortgage loan

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,294 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Soldi said:

    @blitzdude said:

    @dcarr said:

    @blitzdude said:

    @Goldminers said:
    The U.S. budget deficit increased $314 billion in the month of November. It will be more than $34 trillion by the end of the year. There are many reasons to keep stacking your choice of precious metals.

    Debt is just some digits on a computer screen. At this point in the game its completely meaningless. We've been hearing about debt since some arse clown started spending like a drunken sailor back in the early 80's, damn near half a century ago. Now there may come a day when a complete reset occurs but it certainly will not be in our lifetimes.

    I imagine peeps will still be hoarding the gutter in their bunkers many generations from now talking about the end of the world being near and the 1 Quadrillion deficit. Crazy world! RGDS!!!

    .

    Your mortgage might be just be "some digits on a computer screen".
    But if you don't pay it, the authorities will come evict you.

    .

    My mortgage is sitting at 2.75%. The bank is currently paying me 4.35% for $$$ simply parked in a savings account. I could pay off the balance in full right here today but I would be a fool to do so considering they're pay me more than I am paying them. It's a moot point in my world. RGDS!

    Have you ever checked amortization on a mortgage loan

    Yes, again the bank is paying me more than I am paying them. My remaining mortgage balance is miniscule <$50K. I'd rather have cash on standby so when more farmland becomes available I am quickly able to jump all over it. RGDS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 23,835 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 17, 2023 10:42AM

    @blitzdude said:

    @Goldminers said:
    The U.S. budget deficit increased $314 billion in the month of November. It will be more than $34 trillion by the end of the year. There are many reasons to keep stacking your choice of precious metals.

    Debt is just some digits on a computer screen. At this point in the game its completely meaningless. We've been hearing about debt since some arse clown started spending like a drunken sailor back in the early 80's, damn near half a century ago. Now there may come a day when a complete reset occurs but it certainly will not be in our lifetimes.

    I imagine peeps will still be hoarding the gutter in their bunkers many generations from now talking about the end of the world being near and the 1 Quadrillion deficit. Crazy world! RGDS!!!

    Inflation has reduced the purchasing power of a dollar by two thirds since the early 80's. And when you consider that technological advances and globalization have been strong deflationary forces over that same time period, the inflationary effect of rising debt levels has been even more staggering.

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • SoldiSoldi Posts: 2,013 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @blitzdude said:

    @Soldi said:

    @blitzdude said:

    @dcarr said:

    @blitzdude said:

    @Goldminers said:
    The U.S. budget deficit increased $314 billion in the month of November. It will be more than $34 trillion by the end of the year. There are many reasons to keep stacking your choice of precious metals.

    Debt is just some digits on a computer screen. At this point in the game its completely meaningless. We've been hearing about debt since some arse clown started spending like a drunken sailor back in the early 80's, damn near half a century ago. Now there may come a day when a complete reset occurs but it certainly will not be in our lifetimes.

    I imagine peeps will still be hoarding the gutter in their bunkers many generations from now talking about the end of the world being near and the 1 Quadrillion deficit. Crazy world! RGDS!!!

    .

    Your mortgage might be just be "some digits on a computer screen".
    But if you don't pay it, the authorities will come evict you.

    .

    My mortgage is sitting at 2.75%. The bank is currently paying me 4.35% for $$$ simply parked in a savings account. I could pay off the balance in full right here today but I would be a fool to do so considering they're pay me more than I am paying them. It's a moot point in my world. RGDS!

    Have you ever checked amortization on a mortgage loan

    Yes, again the bank is paying me more than I am paying them. My remaining mortgage balance is miniscule <$50K. I'd rather have cash on standby so when more farmland becomes available I am quickly able to jump all over it. RGDS!

    Alright!! My man. Somebody's gotta do it

  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 7,892 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @dcarr said:
    Your mortgage might be just be "some digits on a computer screen".
    But if you don't pay it, the authorities will come evict you.

    .

    Do you think they shouldnt?

    If you borrow money to buy a house and then don't pay, you shouldn't be allowed to stay in the house.
    That would, of course, be unfair to those that did work and pay for their houses.

    Debt is more than just digits on a computer screen.
    Total Federal Government debt is proxy for the amount of dollars in circulation.
    So as the government debt levels increase, the value of the dollar decreases.
    I don't see the parabolic rise in government debt abating.

    PS:
    The wide availability of mortgages has, in effect, driven up the cost of housing to the point where most people have to take on a mortgage to buy a house. A lot of people, over a 30-year time span, end up paying 2 or 3 times the actual purchase price due to mortgage interest. If mortgages had never been available in the first place, houses probably wouldn't be nearly as fancy. But then people wouldn't be spending lifetimes in debt servitude to the banks.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,500 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 18, 2023 5:30PM

    @dcarr said:

    @cohodk said:

    @dcarr said:
    Your mortgage might be just be "some digits on a computer screen".
    But if you don't pay it, the authorities will come evict you.

    .

    Do you think they shouldnt?

    If you borrow money to buy a house and then don't pay, you shouldn't be allowed to stay in the house.
    That would, of course, be unfair to those that did work and pay for their houses.

    Debt is more than just digits on a computer screen.
    Total Federal Government debt is proxy for the amount of dollars in circulation.
    So as the government debt levels increase, the value of the dollar decreases.
    I don't see the parabolic rise in government debt abating.

    PS:
    The wide availability of mortgages has, in effect, driven up the cost of housing to the point where most people have to take on a mortgage to buy a house.

    Is this a personal hypothesis, or is there research on this?

    A lot of people, over a 30-year time span, end up paying 2 or 3 times the actual purchase price due to mortgage interest. If mortgages had never been available in the first place, houses probably wouldn't be nearly as fancy. But then people wouldn't be spending lifetimes in debt servitude to the banks.

    Well, lets take a look at this. Average home price in 1970 was $27000. With a 20% down payment, folk would have financed around $22,000. At 8% for 30 years they would have paid a total of $66,000. That home was worth $204,000 in 2000. Yeah, those folk were raped. LOL A home is fantastic savings account that provides multiples in terms of utilitarian value.

    Or in 1993 they bought the average house for $145,000, put 20% down and financed $115,000 at 8% for 30 years. They would have paid $303,000 in financing costs for a house now worth $500.000.

    Servitude? LOL.

    No one is forced to buy a house, let alone a "fancy" one. They can always rent, or live in a bunker.

    Stats to back it up...

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ASPUS

    https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/amortization-calculator/

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 7,892 ✭✭✭✭✭

    .

    Debt = Servitude

    .

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,500 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @dcarr said:

    .

    Debt = Servitude

    .

    No it doesnt.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,268 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Let’em eat cake, right coho?

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 7,892 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 19, 2023 1:48PM

    @cohodk said:

    @dcarr said:

    .

    Debt = Servitude

    .

    No it doesnt.

    .

    Argumentative without substance = ignorant.

    PS:
    "Servicing" a debt is debt "servitude".

    .

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,294 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 19, 2023 3:20PM

    @cohodk said:
    No one is forced to buy a house, let alone a "fancy" one. They can always rent, or live in a bunker.

    >
    >

    LOL, bunker dwellers. We certainly have a few running around up in here. Crazy World! THKS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 7,892 ✭✭✭✭✭

    A credit expansion inflates. A credit contraction deflates. Simple.

    "The principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale."

    • Thomas Jefferson
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,025 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @dcarr said:

    .

    Debt = Servitude

    .

    agree, if I have to go to work to pay a loan to someone else I am in effect their servant.

    The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.

  • SoldiSoldi Posts: 2,013 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 19, 2023 5:01PM

    Slave to the lender is biblical.

    Commercial Real Estate seems to be the " black swan" the Fed is reacting to.

    Many prognosticators out there shaking the end of the USA hegemony stick or schitch, but the lies by omission are plenty. Not mentioning Sovereign currency, foreign investors. debt ratio to GDPs real effects and the Fed. Seems they channel tv news.

    Even JFK in 1960 knew the debt number didn't matter.

    We pay; inflation is the debt trick that keeps us paying.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,500 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @dcarr said:

    @cohodk said:

    @dcarr said:

    .

    Debt = Servitude

    .

    No it doesnt.

    .

    Argumentative without substance = ignorant.

    PS:
    "Servicing" a debt is debt "servitude".

    .

    Argumentative without substance = ignorant

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,500 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 20, 2023 5:34AM

    @derryb said:

    @dcarr said:

    .

    Debt = Servitude

    .

    agree, if I have to go to work to pay a loan to someone else I am in effect their servant.

    You are only a servant to the benefit of yourself. That's why you used someone's else's resources in the first place.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • bigjpstbigjpst Posts: 3,029 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    @dcarr said:

    .

    Debt = Servitude

    .

    agree, if I have to go to work to pay a loan to someone else I am in effect their servant.

    You are only a servant to the benefit of yourself. That's why you used someone's else's resources in the first place.

    I don’t usually comment in these threads. Just watch and eat popcorn.
    But I have to agree with this.
    If you have debt, be it credit card, mortgage or car loan, then that means you likely made a choice to buy something that you could not afford. Blaming a bank for charging you interest to buy something that you could probably do without or with lessor is the problem we face today.

    Before you say that people are running up their cc just to survive, my answer is they could probably survive with less, or life choices they made to not get an education, borrow excessive amounts of money to pay for school or not learn a trade likely lead to that same need for debt. We make choices. We suffer consequences. Most people could do with less and be just fine without running up the CC.

  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 7,892 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @bigjpst said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    @dcarr said:

    .

    Debt = Servitude

    .

    agree, if I have to go to work to pay a loan to someone else I am in effect their servant.

    You are only a servant to the benefit of yourself. That's why you used someone's else's resources in the first place.

    I don’t usually comment in these threads. Just watch and eat popcorn.
    But I have to agree with this.
    If you have debt, be it credit card, mortgage or car loan, then that means you likely made a choice to buy something that you could not afford. Blaming a bank for charging you interest to buy something that you could probably do without or with lessor is the problem we face today.

    Before you say that people are running up their cc just to survive, my answer is they could probably survive with less, or life choices they made to not get an education, borrow excessive amounts of money to pay for school or not learn a trade likely lead to that same need for debt. We make choices. We suffer consequences. Most people could do with less and be just fine without running up the CC.

    When I wrote "debt = servitude", I was not placing the blame on either side. No one is forced to go into debt - EXCEPT:

    Everyone needs a place to live. The wide availability of credit has driven up the cost of housing to the point that most people have to get a mortgage to be able to buy a house. So you end up in debt servitude to the bank. The only alternative is to rent, in which case you are in servitude to the landlord (which is no better).

    The message here is, don't borrow money and don't pay interest if you can possibly avoid it. Paying off debt is the best "investment" you can make, so do that before speculating in stocks, metals, real estate, etc.

    And when you hear some politician clamoring for more money for student loans, realize that it is a ploy to put more people into debt servitude.

  • bigjpstbigjpst Posts: 3,029 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @dcarr said:

    @bigjpst said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    @dcarr said:

    .

    Debt = Servitude

    .

    agree, if I have to go to work to pay a loan to someone else I am in effect their servant.

    You are only a servant to the benefit of yourself. That's why you used someone's else's resources in the first place.

    I don’t usually comment in these threads. Just watch and eat popcorn.
    But I have to agree with this.
    If you have debt, be it credit card, mortgage or car loan, then that means you likely made a choice to buy something that you could not afford. Blaming a bank for charging you interest to buy something that you could probably do without or with lessor is the problem we face today.

    Before you say that people are running up their cc just to survive, my answer is they could probably survive with less, or life choices they made to not get an education, borrow excessive amounts of money to pay for school or not learn a trade likely lead to that same need for debt. We make choices. We suffer consequences. Most people could do with less and be just fine without running up the CC.

    When I wrote "debt = servitude", I was not placing the blame on either side. No one is forced to go into debt - EXCEPT:

    Everyone needs a place to live. The wide availability of credit has driven up the cost of housing to the point that most people have to get a mortgage to be able to buy a house. So you end up in debt servitude to the bank. The only alternative is to rent, in which case you are in servitude to the landlord (which is no better).

    The message here is, don't borrow money and don't pay interest if you can possibly avoid it. Paying off debt is the best "investment" you can make, so do that before speculating in stocks, metals, real estate, etc.

    And when you hear some politician clamoring for more money for student loans, realize that it is a ploy to put more people into debt servitude.

    I think my point is that while you originally benefit(or later down the road) from taking in this debt. I have a home that I will hopefully one day own outright and I have a roof over my head. The car I drive, while it may be a depreciating asset gets me to where I need to be in a comfort level I prefer to the bus.
    The TV on my wall brings me more enjoyment than the 13” black and white I had as a kid. Sure I don’t need them but I wanted them. And I am in servitude to my own wants and benefits.
    Of course everything I listed other than my house I didn’t take on debt to buy, but many do. And they pay the price to live beyond their means.
    I also chose to learn a trade and not take on student debt.
    I will agree that easy credit has driven to cost of things like school and mortgages to extremes but we are the only ones that can change that. If more people made the choice to not pay lofty tuition and take on student debt, the costs would likely come down. The problem in my mind is that people are told the only way to be successful is to pay these high cost tuition.

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