Rarity scales
seatedlib3991
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I was wondering if anyone knows how rarity scales work.
EXAMPLE A coin is listed as R-3 in good thru VF (200-500), R-4 XF/AU (76-200), R-5 Unc, (31-75).
Does the first number INCUDE all following numbers, or is each number a stand alone and must be added together to get entire population?
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Where have you found a scale like that and what is it based off of?
The rarity scale is based on the population - the expected survival of the coin.
It's certainly likely for circulation coins that there is a 2nd correlation to the grade - but that would require understanding the nuances of a particular coin.
For example, if it is known at the time of release that a given coin will have a low mintage, people might save more of them and thus have a higher population saved in mint state.
Say the 1950D Jefferson which was recognized in 1951 as the low mintage (to date) of the series. Mintage 2.6m, estimated survival (all grades) 2.1m, MS60 or higher 1m (38%).
Compare to the 1950 ... mintage 9.8m, survival 7.8m, MS60 or higher 245,000 (2.5%).
ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
This is the only rarity scale I know.
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
They must be added together.
Sum the lower ranges for the total low range: 200 + 76 + 31 = 307
And the high ranges for the total high range: 500 + 200 + 75 = 775
I assume what you're asking is whether, in your example, the 200-500 for a VF includes the 76-200 in XF/AU and the 31-75 Uncs. That is, Does R3 in VF mean R3 in VF only, or in VF or better. Barberian's answer indicates the former interpretation (with which I agree), but adding the numbers as suggested doesn't get us to an overall R-number for all grades, that is, 307-775 does not correspond to an R-number on the Sheldon 1-8 rarity scale. It would help if the text OAKSTAR shows actually gave numbers for "common", "not so common", and "scarce". So, if it says Rn in grade x, it means exactly that. If it says just Rn without specifying a grade, it means Rn is a total for all grades.
Collector of Liberty Seated Half Dimes, including die pairs and die states
I'm seeing them now with +/- in most of the old scale. It's a good 👍
Yes, that is why I am having some confusion.
One guide says there are around 400 1872-S seated dollars.
Another guide says there are around 200-400 coins in grades VF to AU-58 with a small number of Unc. coins.
Another guide says there are around 700 surviving coins.
Yet another guide says there are around 200-300 R-3 coins, 75-100 R-4 coins and the coins is a R-7 in Unc.
Adding up makes most sense to me, just can't find anything that states that.
Would this help?
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
Another question, does the overall rarity estimate for a date/mintmark include very low grades, damaged coins and "detail" coins? These seem to be plentiful in the Liberty Seated series.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
I hate to say all this but "rarity Scales" are so darn problematic that they seem to always turn out to be wrong, meaning the coin in question seems to be always less rare than what the scale purports to be true.
But that is why this forum is so valuable, because of the noted experts present who can give their opinion of what they collectively saw over the large number of years they have been in the hobby.
Eventually through education and your own experience with the coins that interest you one can become more accurate than the freakin rarity scales.
Rant over
This is my opinion too. Overwhelmingly, compiling a census of known examples only seems to be mostly complete for high profile or expensive low mintage coins. Seems to be more prevalent for the US too from my observations.
My explanation is that most estimates are inaccurate due to assumptions. This is evident is Coin Facts. Many coins have a higher number itemized in the condition census than the number listed in the estimated grade (MS-65+ or MS), unless duplicates are included. The estimate for the '21, '21D dimes are the same or less vs. the 1807 Draped Bust half. A quick look at eBay proves that's not true. Heritage listings state 50 estimated for the 1941H Sarawak cent. It's dated (10-15 years) but last I checked, both TPG's had graded 46 and I doubt any duplicates due to the price. I'd guess at least a few hundred actually exist.
In my primary series (multiple pillar denominations from two mints), the author of one reference conducted a survey, but appears to exclude known examples. It's not clear he included the TPG counts or from the few better-known collections.
It's not exact, but I use comparable Liberty Seated denominations (by size) as my benchmark, as I can't think of a better one. (Using other Latin series is pointless because the estimates are no better.) Liberty Seated is far more widely collected with presumably better estimates. The mintages in my series are frequently higher (even though it's a noticeably older) except for Philadelphia, but I'm confident the number in higher grade is almost always noticeably lower. Coin for coin, my guestimate is it's scarcer at least of 95% of the time. Noticeably different in lower grades which I'm mostly not trying to buy anyway since there is a huge proportion of dreck.
Published estimates vary widely, as much as 200-300% from what I see. Coin Facts estimates that there are 100 1842-O small date halves. There have been over 140 graded and one must figure there are many more out there that are raw.
I refer to the Sheldon rarity scale.
In working his angle, Frankie uses matrix pricing on his graded world bank notes based on the Sheldon scale. So a top pop note single digit pop note priced higher (vs base CV for raw) than a non top pop note much higher graded top. He also factors in grade in markup Calc too. He says if they can use their sticker game price coins high no reason he can’t work his angle. “Look at what they bid up the CACG sample slabs to (Rofl) and real high rip off prices certain eBay sellers have on that stuff like one he’s named El Rippo.”
Since it’s difficult to quantify actual surviving numbers even in this modern era, Bruce Fox’s scale for Walkers has stood the test of time for collectors. This was done pre-internet when the TPGs were in their infancy, but is surprisingly accurate, if you consider general terms.
Using this qualitative scale, and conducting a survey among experts, he compiled this:
Then summarized it in this format:
I suspect we'd have to ask the source for any rarity estimate. Even if an R number comes with an explicit "in all grades" or similar qualifier, I suspect that it was "calculated" without considering the junk no one really wants, unless it is truly rare.
Collector of Liberty Seated Half Dimes, including die pairs and die states
Why does the collection of estimates have to make some kind of universal sense? It's just an estimate, perhaps an educated estimate, but each estimate is just its own stand-alone data point.
ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
I think that can be important EPC, Just how rare is a coin if you count them all? Look at some of the CC coins that are considered collectible in barely recognizable shape. I will admit though, I wasn't really thinking of the basement grades and detail pieces as much as I wonder
how to use rarity ratings when trying to find a particular coin.