Will Ohtani's signing give the baseball card market a jolt before the season?
ndleo
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He will likely end up somewhere new and expensive. Do you think this will help revive the modern baseball market?
Mike
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The entire market? I doubt it.
Is there a problem with the modern baseball market?
I collect mostly vintage, didn't know there were problems with modern.
Seems to me that some Ohtani card prices have dropped a bit slightly and some of them are holding solid. The off season is the best time to pick up some of his or any other player you like at a price much lower than it will be in May/June/July. I think when he signs with the Dodgers the prices will increase because of their big market. A pending 2nd MVP award in 3 years will help too. Regarding the baseball card market i don't think it will have any affect as JoeBanzai stated.
I think a successful recovery from surgery and a return as a Unicorn will have a much bigger impact. If he is a position player only (if he does not pitch he is a good enough athlete to play in the field) in the future - I think he will be overshadowed by the next hot rookie.
It will take a phenomenal hot rookie to overshadow what he's accomplished so far. I'm leaning towards a successful recovery and back to unicorn form in 2025.
For his market I would say yes. Depending on the team. Dodgers yes. Blue Jays no. The idea that your investment will be in the playoffs and have October highlights like Bryce, that makes the item have more value from a speculative angle. The potential for consistent playoff appearances increases the value of the asset.
The overall baseball card market, I would say no.
In terms of what he is going to do going forward, will he play both sides, I think the opinion depends on whether you own any of his stuff. Like Nvidia or Tesla stock. If you missed the boat, if you wear a bow tie and tell your clients to buy bonds and those stocks are bad investments, your story continies to be those are terrible risky investments that are overpriced and will pull back. If you own them, its a different story. You aren't rooting for them to fail, suggesting they will fail.
I am in. I own Shohei Tesla and Nvidia. I think he will recover and pitch again. For other guys what he is doing would be more of a tall order but he has been doing this a long time. If he does play both sides for a while and does it well he will probably be considered the greatest baseball player who ever lived. If he does not, you can't erase what he did already. He is forever a legend and doubt guys will come along and best what he did in the past few years too often if ever. There are numbers and then there is that special something that gravitates fans to players. Do people want to collect Jim Thome cards more than Mantle because he had more home runs? Does it matter if Mickey's numbers were compromised later in his career? If he is loved, no. He was. About as much as possible. Belle has some of the greatest seasons of all-time and if you compare the #s he fits in for individual seasons with all-time greats. But that is ignored. He is not loved. If you are not loved any history or opinions associating you with PEDs is fully embraced. Bonds Clemens Palmeiro. If you are loved associations with PEDs are ignored or discredited. Ortiz first ballot. Compare Molitor to Jeter. Kind of similar. Your wife knows Jeter's name and not Molitor's. Mattingly. Gooden. Mark Fidrych. Players leave a mark and you cant erase it without some really condemning news. Even then it sometime does not matter so much in terms of card values. The players who are loved dont have to make the HOF or finish high on a leaders list. With Shohei, he has already made a mark. The rest is upside.
Ronald Acuna just completed a 40/70 season, and his cards didn't get any bump. At least they "held" while everything was doing down.
Absolute Best case Ohtani's cards get a bump. The thing is some or all of how much already may baked in to their FMV?
At this place in time any card simply maintaining most of its FMV should be considered a victory! As @Vagabond astutely noted Acuna required a monster year just to have his cards hold their FMV.
I read similar on Comic Book and Coin forums; some folks clutching on hope that one comic character or coin series will ignite the broader market. Hope is fine, but smartest $ move is to adapt and adjust to the new norms
Acuna's card values are somewhat a mystery. Amazing talent, Incredible year, one of the most popular selling jerseys, but something about him turns people off. Might be his HR dance routine he does when coming to 3rd base doing the LeBron tribute. I see his card prices remaining flat.
I think how you see it is complicated by how short-term your view is and the timing of how we analyze it. Original post was will there be a jolt before the season. Sadly, I think we will be jolt-free. Or maybe a positive way to look at it is its an opp to buy low. Unless you believe these cards wont go up in value in your lifetime. With Shoehei, I think you see a short-term bump/spike if its the Dodgers Phillies or some other team where people can envision him as both Mr. October and Bloody Sock Curt. Think there would have to be a little euphoria hope excitement about the upside and then its fear of missing out needing to have it which is what drives auctions up. Could be pullback after it wears off. Or maybe only if he does not impress in his new uniform.
I also feel like Acuna should be going higher but think its complicated. Some people have already been burned (me only slightly) when he looked liked this and was the perceived MVP but then was injured and took a while to get back to that form, or even better. Talking about what is being baked into the price I do feel there was partly an expectation he would resume where he was headed. Maybe part of it is as baseball fans we are very impressed by 70 SBs but not sure collectors/card investors have chased SBs as a stat too much unless its Henderson. Think part of it too is just what it could have been and maybe fear about injuries and setbacks. He had 40 HRs and then appeared on that pace or better but then we had a pandemic-shortened year where he could only get 14 (not his fault) then got hurt so only 24 and then had a recovery ? year where was not 100% and got 15. So different circumstances he could have had 40+ HRs 5 years in a row and have 230ish by age 25 and then he is looking like he can be one of the best ever. So think there is a little bit of doubt sprinkled into his value and concern about lost opportunities. But I still see him as a fantastic potential investment. Probably a nice buy low opp if he can keep this up.