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Mahomes vs. Wilson

craig44craig44 Posts: 10,506 ✭✭✭✭✭

just saw this comparison pop up on facebook. It was pretty surprising considering all the talk about Wilson being washed. this years numbers through 6 games:

Mahomes: 68.3% completions, 1593 yards, 11 TD, 5 INT, passer rating 95.7

Russell Wilson: 65.9 % completions, 1305 yards, 12 TD, 4 INT, passer rating 99.0

Mahomes has more yards because he has 40 more pass attempts. their yards/att. and completion are almost the same.

George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.

Comments

  • perkdogperkdog Posts: 29,467 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The Chiefs are winning but they certainly are not rampaging through victory after victory

    It is surprising to look at those numbers for sure though

  • fergie23fergie23 Posts: 2,084 ✭✭✭✭

    Wilson's primary issue is that he is no longer as nimble as he used to be and takes a lot of sacks.

    Broncos missed a 2 point conversion to tie the Commanders after time expired. Had the ball down 3 with just over 2 minutes left against the Jets. Trailing by 1 against the Raiders, their defense let the Raiders run out the clock with one drive over the last 5 minutes of the game. Were down by 1 score against the Chiefs late in the 4th quarter. So the opportunities have been there late in games for the Broncos to win a few.

    That said, there have been some putrid performances from the Broncos for long stretches of games from Wilson. I am not sure if it is a play calling issue, something Wilson is doing, or what.

    Robb

  • JoeBanzaiJoeBanzai Posts: 11,208 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Could it be because the Broncos have given up 112 more points than the Chiefs while scoring only 18 less?

    2013,14 and 15 Certificate Award Winner Harmon Killebrew Master Set and Master Topps Set
  • DarinDarin Posts: 6,298 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @craig44 said:
    just saw this comparison pop up on facebook. It was pretty surprising considering all the talk about Wilson being washed. this years numbers through 6 games:

    Mahomes: 68.3% completions, 1593 yards, 11 TD, 5 INT, passer rating 95.7

    Russell Wilson: 65.9 % completions, 1305 yards, 12 TD, 4 INT, passer rating 99.0

    Mahomes has more yards because he has 40 more pass attempts. their yards/att. and completion are almost the same.

    The big difference is QBR which some say is a better overall indicator of QB performance.
    Mahomes is at 72 and Wilson 40.
    The broncos losing has been a total team effort so I think Russell hasn’t been great but of course not terrible either.
    I think Mahomes lower numbers this year have been due to adjusting to new receivers. I’ve seen him drop back many times this year with plenty of time to throw and nobody is open. We have Kelce but we don’t have a consistent veteran receiver because Valdez Scantling seems to never get open.

    DISCLAIMER FOR BASEBAL21
    In the course of every human endeavor since the dawn of time the risk of human error has always been a factor. Including but not limited to field goals, 4th down attempts, or multiple paragraph ramblings on a sports forum authored by someone who shall remain anonymous.
  • DarinDarin Posts: 6,298 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Last year ju ju smith shuster filled the role of chiefs consistent veteran and had a very good year. Mahomes found him for a lot of big catches along with Kelce.
    That was a key piece last year that is gone and it looks like maybe Rashee rice can fill that role going forward as he had a solid game against Denver

    DISCLAIMER FOR BASEBAL21
    In the course of every human endeavor since the dawn of time the risk of human error has always been a factor. Including but not limited to field goals, 4th down attempts, or multiple paragraph ramblings on a sports forum authored by someone who shall remain anonymous.
  • Interesting stats, I do agree. I sure wish Mahomes had a Jerry Jeudy to throw to...I think his stats would be quite different if he had an alpha WR. The Chiefs attempts to replace Hill have fallen quite short and they seem to finally be paying for it. Kelce is elite but the man can only do so much. Rice appears to be talented but not on the level they need him to be yet.

  • craig44craig44 Posts: 10,506 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I wonder how much longer Kelce can be depended on to be elite? he is 34, so one thinks he doesnt have a lot of elite time left. I have noticed he has had more little injuries so far this season. he missed the first game, then had an ankle in game 5, though he didnt miss any time. The Chiefs better make sure they have someone waiting in the wings for when Travis isnt Travis anymore.

    George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.

  • TabeTabe Posts: 5,924 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ndodge55 said:
    Interesting stats, I do agree. I sure wish Mahomes had a Jerry Jeudy to throw to...I think his stats would be quite different if he had an alpha WR.

    Jerry Jeudy is...not great. He's got just 222 yards receiving this year and 0 touchdowns. But, hey, let Steve Smith say it instead:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcmfqJn4wcs

  • 1948_Swell_Robinson1948_Swell_Robinson Posts: 1,682 ✭✭✭✭

    @craig44 said:
    I wonder how much longer Kelce can be depended on to be elite? he is 34, so one thinks he doesnt have a lot of elite time left. I have noticed he has had more little injuries so far this season. he missed the first game, then had an ankle in game 5, though he didnt miss any time. The Chiefs better make sure they have someone waiting in the wings for when Travis isnt Travis anymore.

    QBR is kind of like Run Expectancy and Win Probability Added in baseball stats. The best part of the QBR stat for me is that they account for garbage time passing stats and lessen their value.

    Below is a good explanation why they would have a big difference in QBR rather than just standard QB rating...

    "QBR as a solution to Passer Rating's Limitations

    Total Quarterback Rating, also known as QBR, is a rating system developed by ESPN in 2011 to directly address the limitations of passer rating outlined above. As a metric, QBR has two goals that differentiate it from passer rating.

    First, QBR attempts to separate a quarterback's performance from the performance of their team by taking things like depth of target and receiver yards after catch into consideration. Second, QBR attempts to tie itself to winning rather than pure volume or raw efficiency by considering game context and up-weighting critical plays.

    Since QBR is proprietary to ESPN, the exact formula isn't publicly known. However, the formula can be described based on how it's meant to work in theory. At its core, QBR works by assigning individual values to each play based on a variety of contextual factors such as down and distance, score differential, starting field position, etc. This part of the formula can generally be thought of as something akin to Expected Points Added (EPA). Plays that increase the likelihood that a team scores receive positive point value, while plays that reduce the likelihood that a team scores receive negative point value.

    For instance, completing a 10 yard pass on 3rd and 10 from the 30 yard line will generate substantially more expected points added than completing a 10 yard pass on 3rd and 20 from the same spot as the former prevented a punt while the latter did not.

    QBR also takes things a step further. While raw expected points added assigns all credit to the quarterback, QBR does not. QBR discounts the credit assigned to the quarterback depending on how incremental the player actually was. For instance, QBR assigns relatively less credit for the play's outcome on screen passes where the receiver does most of the work, and assigns relatively more credit on plays where the quarterback was facing pressure or made a great throw downfield.

    In addition to better credit assignment, QBR also adjusts expected points added for win probability to account for the "stat padding" dynamic exhibited by passer rating. With QBR, a play's expected points added is adjusted further depending on when it occurred. Plays that occur in garbage time receive relatively less credit than those that occur when the game is tight and defenses are not playing overly conservatively.

    As mentioned earlier, QBR attempts to tie performance to winning. To do this, QBR takes a quarterback's adjusted EPA and translates it to a 0-100 scale with 50 representing average. A quarterback that achieves a 60 QBR would be expected to win 60% of their games. After translation, the resulting metric is called "Raw QBR." To get to a final QBR, an opponent adjustment is applied to account for a quarterback facing either a stronger or weaker defense than average.

    Clearly, QBR is a substantially more sophisticated metric, but what do we get for all this added complexity?"

  • Steven59Steven59 Posts: 8,290 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Pretty amazing stats, never would have believed it if I didn't read them.

    "When they can't find anything wrong with you, they create it!"

  • ApplejacksApplejacks Posts: 384 ✭✭✭

    Wilson has always been an awesome QB. He’s also awesome at keeping Tom Hanks company when he’s lonely.

  • craig44craig44 Posts: 10,506 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @1948_Swell_Robinson said:

    @craig44 said:
    I wonder how much longer Kelce can be depended on to be elite? he is 34, so one thinks he doesnt have a lot of elite time left. I have noticed he has had more little injuries so far this season. he missed the first game, then had an ankle in game 5, though he didnt miss any time. The Chiefs better make sure they have someone waiting in the wings for when Travis isnt Travis anymore.

    QBR is kind of like Run Expectancy and Win Probability Added in baseball stats. The best part of the QBR stat for me is that they account for garbage time passing stats and lessen their value.

    Below is a good explanation why they would have a big difference in QBR rather than just standard QB rating...

    "QBR as a solution to Passer Rating's Limitations

    Total Quarterback Rating, also known as QBR, is a rating system developed by ESPN in 2011 to directly address the limitations of passer rating outlined above. As a metric, QBR has two goals that differentiate it from passer rating.

    First, QBR attempts to separate a quarterback's performance from the performance of their team by taking things like depth of target and receiver yards after catch into consideration. Second, QBR attempts to tie itself to winning rather than pure volume or raw efficiency by considering game context and up-weighting critical plays.

    Since QBR is proprietary to ESPN, the exact formula isn't publicly known. However, the formula can be described based on how it's meant to work in theory. At its core, QBR works by assigning individual values to each play based on a variety of contextual factors such as down and distance, score differential, starting field position, etc. This part of the formula can generally be thought of as something akin to Expected Points Added (EPA). Plays that increase the likelihood that a team scores receive positive point value, while plays that reduce the likelihood that a team scores receive negative point value.

    For instance, completing a 10 yard pass on 3rd and 10 from the 30 yard line will generate substantially more expected points added than completing a 10 yard pass on 3rd and 20 from the same spot as the former prevented a punt while the latter did not.

    QBR also takes things a step further. While raw expected points added assigns all credit to the quarterback, QBR does not. QBR discounts the credit assigned to the quarterback depending on how incremental the player actually was. For instance, QBR assigns relatively less credit for the play's outcome on screen passes where the receiver does most of the work, and assigns relatively more credit on plays where the quarterback was facing pressure or made a great throw downfield.

    In addition to better credit assignment, QBR also adjusts expected points added for win probability to account for the "stat padding" dynamic exhibited by passer rating. With QBR, a play's expected points added is adjusted further depending on when it occurred. Plays that occur in garbage time receive relatively less credit than those that occur when the game is tight and defenses are not playing overly conservatively.

    As mentioned earlier, QBR attempts to tie performance to winning. To do this, QBR takes a quarterback's adjusted EPA and translates it to a 0-100 scale with 50 representing average. A quarterback that achieves a 60 QBR would be expected to win 60% of their games. After translation, the resulting metric is called "Raw QBR." To get to a final QBR, an opponent adjustment is applied to account for a quarterback facing either a stronger or weaker defense than average.

    Clearly, QBR is a substantially more sophisticated metric, but what do we get for all this added complexity?"

    I am skeptical of any statistic where the developer will not release the formula. I cant replicate it and those behind the stat can tweak it and move the goalposts whenever/however and for whatever agenda they want/have.

    George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.

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