Farewell to NFL home-field advantage, as home teams have a losing record through 5 weeks
stevek
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Farewell to NFL home-field advantage, as home teams have a losing record through 5 weeks
.....For whatever reason — cozier travel, less raucous crowds in cozy, modern and expensive new stadiums, officials being more aware of a long-term trend of home teams getting more calls — there has been no edge for home teams this season.
Hopefully this info might help some of the sports betting whales on this forum.
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All of those reasons could be part of it.
It seems as though a team has to be very, very good to have that advantage. And then they often win on the road as well.
i have no research to back it up, but it seems this season has been a little wonky.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
The traditional bookie way of making odds in football was to automatically give the home team 3 points. Probably something close to that is still in effect.
I don't bet, but I think the most intriguing game this weekend is the Patriots game. With the Patriots +3 on the road, the bookies are basically calling this an even game.
So with the Patriots seemingly falling apart, an even game? Whenever it appears like the bookies are giving away money, look out. 🤔
If Belichick has anything left as a head coach, and Mac Jones and the rest of the team can focus on 60 minutes of football, I think the Patriots win this game.
LOL. I haven't even noticed, but that's probably because I'm a Panthers fan and we're used to losing at home.
Football as you know is big in the South. I'm sure Panthers fans would eagerly support a winning team.
The Panthers almost got to the promised land a while back, before Cam Newton turned into a freak show. Maybe one day they'll be competitive again, and win a Super Bowl?
I don't know if this helps any fellow bettors. But when a trend develops and becomes widely known and bet on, it seems the reverse of that trend begins to rear it's ugly head. If one could only sense the beginning of the trend and bail out before said trend does a U turn. Caution, a U turn may be up ahead. Just do not know when.
Excellent point. I agree with ya.
The bookie's vig on a standard football bet is 4.77%. That's right around the same as a casino roulette wheel.
The vig is even higher on prop bets. Sometimes incredibly higher. I've heard of some prop bets with a 40% vig. A monstrosity bankroll killer similar to playing the lottery.
But I always wish good luck to the players. I love it when bookies lose. Especially when a whale takes them down on a huge bet.
We've gotten close to winning it all twice, the Patriots got us back in 2003 and of course the Broncos. At least we did lose to the GOAT and an all-time great though. On a side note, my UNC Tar Heels are 6-0 in college football, so I am getting a little joy this year. 🖒
Penn State also at 6-0.
Good luck the rest of the season.
Good luck to Penn State too buddy. 🖒
Your Panthers jumped out to an early 14-0 lead and looked like they might spring a huge upset. But now in the 4th quarter, the Dolphins have pulled away to a 21 point lead.
Football games always reminded me of horse racing in a way. Even a cheap claimer can run with Secretariat for a 1/4 mile, even take the lead on Secretariat. But then eventually, the superior horse catches up and pulls away.
I knew our lead wouldn't hold up, it never does. I watched it for a while and then just couldn't stomach it anymore and turned the channel. Now if you'll excuse me, I need to take my nausea medication, it's special made for us Panthers fans after a loss.
Home field surely helped the Browns and Jets
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Geez - those who bet the Patriots getting +3, that was one of the worst bad beats I've ever seen in my life. Perhaps the worst.
No sense rehashing the details. But the Patriots bettors towards the end of the game had that money spent, and those betting the Raiders were about to tear-up their betting slips. Until Mac Jones took care of all that, and found a way to reverse the wagering outcome.
Frankly, the Patriots coaching and game management towards the end of that game was some of the poorest I've ever seen in the National Football League. The Patriots were making mistakes and costly penalties perhaps not even a high school team would make.
Gamblers will be talking about that bad beat for a long time.
I had the Raiders-3 for $150 and started to rip up my ticket. Went to the bathroom on the last series and came back thinking the streaming score was incorrect. Better to be lucky than good sometimes
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Totally agree with ya about "Better to be lucky than good", and that can be said for all walks of life. Glad you won the bet! 👍
True story you might enjoy - I'm at Garden State racetrack one night, and one track on simulcast they were showing was harness racing from the Meadowlands. Well I'm looking at the program, the favorite is around 3-5 and I don't like it. So I put $10 each to win on five different long shots. I had made bets like this many times before. The track wasn't crowded, so I'm moving around sitting at different seats depending on what TV screen had a simulcast track showing, and I sit down to watch the race. So anyway, the favorite dominates the race, and wins jogging by around a dozen lengths. The race was over at the top of the stretch but I watched it anyway, and one of my horses, a 70-1 shot, just gets up for second. The favorite had to be that good, right? My usual rot gut luck at the track.
So I'm already losing for the night, and that $700 win would have been very nice, I'm a little hissed and I tear-up the tote ticket into around twenty pieces and throw it on the floor. Well, on to the next race. So I'm siting about fifteen yards from where I was sitting, and out of the corner of my eye I see the Meadowlands result flashing which I knew meant an objection or something. I didn't even pay close attention to it because the winner did nothing wrong. So anyway, long objection, must have taken at least ten minutes, and I see they take the favorite down for some silly minor infraction around the first turn. But my heart dropped in horror as F*, I ripped up a $700 winning ticket.
Within a millisecond, i knew nobody else would have picked up a ripped up ticket, but the horror was that the sweepers would have swept up the area, and the ticket would be impossible to find. Very fortunately, the ripped up ticket was still on the floor in the exact spot where I threw it.
I gathered up the little pieces and put them in my wallet. The next day, I took the pieces out, and carefully taped them together like a jigsaw puzzle. The top part of the ticket didn't have to be precise, but the bottom half with the bar code needed to be precise or the tote machine would not accept it. I wasn't overly worried because I knew a teller could manually punch in the ticket number and it would still work. I just wanted to avoid the embarrassment of bringing that ticket to a teller.
So then i went to the office where I worked, made a copy of the taped together ticket. Cut with a scissors the ticket to its proper size, and later went to the track. Well I inserted it into the tote machine, heard the particular sound it makes when a ticket is good. and out comes a $700+ voucher. I sure got lucky on that one. 😎
Sorry if I put anyone to sleep with this story. That perhaps only a gambler could appreciate. 🤣
And Buffalo.
In reference to your win by DQ. I've lost more races by having my horse taken down. Rather not even have them finish first if they are to be taken down. One night at a harness track years ago I bet on a driver in the 2nd race. He had a heart attack in the bike and died. I promptly took that as a bad omen and departed the grounds. One more. A bad beat. Had a 5-2 shot 20/30/50 across the board. Leading by 3 open lengths in deep stretch. Ready to collect. Jumps/breaks stride right in front of me. Finished out of the money. Those bad beats you remember just as much as the wins.
My late Uncle had a phrase,don't know if it is an original or one passed down through the ages. People who lose in the worse way have "sh*t house luck".
Garden state racetrack, that's going back awhile.
Same here with the DQ loss to win ratio. Over the years, many more of my winners were taken down, versus how many were moved up.
Absolutely brutal way to lose a race with the driver dying during the race.
Didn't affect my betting outcome, but i once on simulcast TV, saw a jockey killed during a race. I watched the race and didn't even know a grave event had happened. It occurred at Delmar, and that horse was in the back of the pack. While watching the race live, I noticed there was some altercation towards the back of the pack. But my horse was near the front of the pack, so i didn't pay close attention to it. Well some minutes after the race was over, an announcement came over the loud speaker that racing at Delmar was cancelled for the day. They didn't give a reason. I couldn't have cared less, there were many more simulcast races at other tracks still to be run. Turns out the next day, I find out in the media that a jockey during that race had been killed by being thrown from the horse onto the trimmed bushes which were right up close to the turf course. I could only imagine traveling around 35 mph on a horse, then suddenly being thrown into a row of sharply trimmed bushes. Must have cut into him like a bunch of knives.
So true about the bad beats in horse racing. I could post them all, but it might take up all the CU server space for the day. 🙁
I forget exactly - around 25 years ago.