Future SS HOF Potential
Cakes
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With the current MLB playoffs taking place we have 3 Shortstops that all entered the league right around the same time: Trea Turner, Corey Seager, and Carlos Correa, who are all playing well. Which one do you think will have the best career and do any of them get into the HOF? They all have WS wins. I should include Xander Bogaerts.
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Francisco Lindor would like to be included in the discussion.
while all of these guys are good, none are really household names. All are playing well, but not many SS make it to the Hall. Most got close or over 3,000 hits, at least lately.
Not yet, maybe this playoffs will thrust one into the spotlight. For example Correa is climbing the all time Playoff RBI leaderboard. Or maybe Seager wins another WS MVP like he did in 2020.
azvike, I should have included Lindor,
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Cal is/was my favorite SS.
None of them as of now. They will need long careers to account for either shortcomings or injuries.
Without going into detail on all of them, Seager has the best shot going forward. He is the clear best hitter among all of them and has done it with good enough defense. He lacks counting totals compared to Lindor and Boegarts because Seager has been hurt a lot.
Seager is just coming into his consistent power stroke and he just had his best year. Among all those guys he has the best shot of maintaining his hitting ability and putting up more MVP caliber hitting seasons going forward.
I think the other guys, their best is in the rear view mirror. .
Will it be enough to offset his injury plagued years? As of now, it is an uphill battle. He needs the good fortune of great health going forward.
An MVP or two is still possible for Seager in the next few years. He will be second in MVP this year. Ohtani won't be an MVP factor next year.
I don’t know about HOF but if I were to pick one for my team it would be Seager. Baez is a bust. Maybe the Tigers can trade him in a bundle with Rodriguez (I don’t think he really wants to be with the Tigers) and land something good.
Dont think any HOFers from those 3. I like Bo Bichette more than them as a HOF candidate because he has a nice shot at one of the big #s that gets you in with 3000 hits. Started young and racks up the 170 180 190 hits years. Only 25 and had 653. Trea is 30 and has 1200. Would be extremely tough for him. Corey was fantastic this year but he is 29 and does not have much in the ways of numbers already and limited time to add to finish with an impressive resume. Same with Carlos. Very good player but just dont think the numbers can be there when he hangs them up.
Seager was a Dodger. He got hit on the hand by a pitch and went out for the season leading to him being traded before he healed. He seemed to me to be a great shortstop.
When Seager got traded the Dodgers picked up Turner. Also a great short stop. Lead the league in average and hits that year.
If I remember correctly anyway.
This is correct. Lindor has a better shot at the Hall than any of the others discussed.
Bomb for Seager. That swing has a lot more HR in it. MVP in his future.
I agree about Bo, I was only using players still in the playoffs.
When it comes to 3,000 hits it doesn't look like any current player will reach 3,000.
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I wouldn't bet on any of them. Correa and Seager have injury concerns. Turner has the benefit of now playing in a big market, but doesn't have enough hardware to stake a claim.
I tend to agree that Lindor has a better shot. He plays in a huge market and has some defense awards to go with his numbers. Not completely sold on him either, though.
Freddie Freeman says "Hold my beer"
I'm taking 29 year old Francisco Lindor and his Fangraphs 47.7 Career WAR. His BB Reference 42.7 Career WAR places him in the Top 40 SS of All-Time. Another normal season for him and he's in the Top 25 at the age of 30.
The only two current SS that I would put HOF money on will be Bo Bichette and Bobby Witt, Jr. Both are early in their career, but come from MLB pedigree and have all the offensive tools to approach key milestones like 3000 H, 400+ HR and 400+ SB. Health willing, I think their key RCs are good bets at current prices.
This is from April 2022: https://theringer.com/mlb/2022/4/25/23040896/mlb-3000-hit-club-miguel-cabrera
José Altuve has 1,783 hits and Freddie Freeman has 1,723, both are still going strong, and both are only at the start of their age-32 seasons. Yet even Altuve and Freeman are still a good seven years away, even if they get there. And they probably won’t: Besides Altuve and Freeman, 37 other players in league history have amassed between 1,700 and 1,800 career hits through age 31—including 18 Hall of Famers—and only three reached 3,000. That’s a success rate of 8 percent.
Altuve and Freeman probably have a better chance than just that 8 percent. Though Altuve is on the injured list at the moment, both have hit well since the start of last season and should remain starters for years to come. But they’re still much more likely to fall short than to reach the milestone. According to ZiPS projections near the end of last season, Altuve has a 34 percent likelihood to join the 3,000-hit club, with Freeman just behind at 28 percent. They’re the only active players above 20 percent. The ZiPS projections didn’t give any member of the generation led by Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Bryce Harper, and Manny Machado better than a 5 percent chance to reach 3,000.
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Turner has been on fire, It's likely Turner and Seager play each other in the WS.
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In the two years since that article (April 2022), Freeman has averaged 205 hits per season. He's still in his prime right now and barring injury, I'd expect him to keep up that pace for another 2-3 years before he starts to tail off a little. If he picks up between 550 and 600 hits in the next 3 years, it should be a cakewalk to 3000.
Back to the shortstops - Lindor has the edge right now with bigger numbers. It's all about which one of them plays until they are 42yo.
That combined with WS rings would do it.
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