Sinking Shohei
82FootballWaxMemorys
Posts: 1,520 ✭✭✭✭✭
Are those who payed any where near high's for Ohtani starting to worry?
Shohei's Agent is slick with his used car salesman type statements attempting to reel some desperate sucker club in during off-season at a huge price, but now he can't even hit. Guessing here what's not being said by the Othani camp speaks far louder than what is...
Calling here it and now on Sept 16, 2023; Ohtani cards will never again sniff their past highs. Those who have $$$ "invested" in them will likley spit some venom as a response, but ain't no ones fault but their own paying solid coin for young/young-ish players. To those folks I say take solace in that at least they will have far more demand than Wander Franco and Tatis Jr. 
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Comments
I have no horse in this race, since I don't collect baseball, but Ohtani will be fine. He'll likely come back from both injuries with no issues.
Even if he never pitches again he’s going to be a great hitter. His rep is set and fans love him. Once he gets out of Anaheim his cards will keep their value.
Doing both well is what propelled his cards to stratosphere. If he just hits he's merely in a group of excellent hitters. If no longer special, not seeing why he cards will at bare minimum sink to Acuna levels. Even that assumes Otanhi is not hurt worse than is being revealed and continues hitting at his previous levels.
If I had his cards I've be sweating up a storm.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
I didn't buy high but not too worried. I certainly would have no interest in selling today even at peak prices. Whatever happens you cant take what he did away. People didn't seem to lose respect for Koufax for doing what he did for a short period of time. Just remained impressed by the feats. In my opinion, no MLB player has ever had 3 better consecutive years than Shohei's last 3. Noone has ever really done what he has done and who knows how long it will take for someone to match it. If it ever happens. Even Babe Ruth did not have years where he was pitching and batting so much at the same time. So maybe the 3 most impressive consecutive years ever. That should be remembered and appreciated. Standalone. But if more is accomplished and I think it will be, kind of a bonus. He will be a legend forever no matter what happens. But I think he has a lot left in him. And dont think an oblique injury will have any impact on how he hits in April.
Bo Jackson...never worth more than he is today.
Plenty of guys kept their juice who were transitional players and he’s one too. I think his will hold.
Since I don’t buy modern it won’t effect me at all though.
Was a big Eric Lindros investor....got hammered.....
chaz
Really? I don't follow Junk Wax. Were any of Bo's cards 5 or 6 figures like some purposely manufactured as rare Ohtani's?
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
and he's in the NHL HOF. But yep u are correct.
I recall mass hoarding of 90-91 Score Canadian. Now it's approx $35 in PSA 10
Moral is buy junk wax and you are buying junk. BTW the reason I knwo about this one is out of nostalgia I will purchase one when it drops to the under $30 level. My guess is that will be sometime in the next 1-8 weeks. If I'm wrong then oh well wont cry over NOT purchasing junk.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
I haven't forgotten you....Your gonna get your butt handed to you kid...Watch out for 1990 Fleer Basketball Wax (FASC)...it's creeping up and I am going to be there to bust you big time when it hits $300 a box and you said it will be under $100. You don't know what your talking about. You don't know it all yet kid, you'll learn the hard way. Demand for Jordan will outstrip supply...learn your economics. What happened to your little Simpson moniker? Did they make you take it down??
chaz
Manufactured rare is a concept that's been around before any of us. When something is 1-off then it's rare. Whether it's valuable is determined by the price somebody is willing to pay.
You may be right. You may be wrong. If you make enough predictions then you're bound to get at least one right. If you're right then I'll buy you the cookie I know you're after.
Went hard after Bob Denier, Johnny Ray and Hrbek. At .35 pack, no harm!
yep even then at that price point it was still pocket change for most every collector.
I do wonder how many on this forum have 4,5,6 figure "investments" in Ohtani? Or have forked over 4 figures or more buying packs in hopes of obtaining certain Ohtani cards?
At very least temporarily Ohtani cards have lost some of their luster. The question is when and how much of that will be regained. If he is not both pitching and hitting at previous levels then his cards increasing or regaining their previous stratospheric value levels seems unlikely.
Given gain to previous levels or increases are not a given, perhaps selling now at small losses will prevent selling later at huge?
Question; Who still feels Ohtani cards at current levels will yield good returns on ROI?
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. I only collect proven HOFs ( vintage). I stopped speculating w/up-and-coming “stars” w/Gregg Jeffries… nothing later than 1980 in my collection.
He's is an Aaron Judge-level home run hitter. You think that's not special?
Not special enough to support the high 4, 5 or 6 figure price tags of some Ohtani cards. Judge level is great but a huge step down from what is/was Ohtani level card values.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Lindros is a top 50 player all time. Issue with his cards was overproduction - nothing from that era is worth anything.
I really wonder sometimes if some of you people actually watch and understand baseball.
I think if Ohtani focused 100% on hitting we could be unreal.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Agreed he could put up some huge numbers, but now add oft-injured to the equation.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
I really wonder sometimes if some of you people are actually reading the posts.
The point of this topic is Ohtani's card values, and will they maintain their huge premiums
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
It's really going to depend on where Ohtani lands in the off-season. If he ends up with a big market team like the Yankees you should see a surge in his prices.
I think the point of this thread is more about your curiosity of how many on this board have 4, 5 or 6 figure investments in Ohtani so you can rub salt in their wounds if these investments go belly up and say "I told you so." while pointing to your initial comment in this thread.
"Calling here it and now on Sept 16, 2023; Ohtani cards will never again sniff their past highs. Those who have $$$ "invested" in them will likley spit some venom as a response, but ain't no ones fault but their own paying solid coin for young/young-ish players."
I don't understand when people get joy seeing others lose. If this isn't your intent then I must be horrible at interpretation.
No. But if Bo was playing today, I could see his purposely manufactured rare cards would also be 5 or 6 figures.
They COULD yield good returns. It's that speculation that drives up the prices.
As another poster said, put Ohtani in a big market, and ROI could increase.
Add to that, if his team goes to the World Series and he hits a walk off homer in Game 7, then his card would return and pass it's current levels.
Plus he has a much broader fan base with Japanese fans.
Charizard never pitched or hit a MLB HR and look at the price of some of those cards.
"In 2022, a Shadowless Holo of Charizard with a PSA grade of 10, a grade only handed out 122 times to Charizards, sold for a record-breaking $420,000 at auction."
I'm a Yankees fan I sure hope it's not them it could very well be yet another oft-injured, drain on the payroll player who best years are already behind them.
if not for the injuries I woudl have said give him a piece of the team to land him but he won't get any less frail as he ages and will be 30 in 2024.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
A well thought out answer coming from position of reason rather than emotion. Kudos Ron!
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Perhaps you are correct? I do mean that seriously.
Maybe I should have created a poll and compared one of the huge ticket Ohtani items to the 1984 Fleer traded set in PSA10
P.S. unclench bud, I like your fun polls. I also would enjoy seeing 2 cards pitted against each other. Something like one of the 1932 Goudey Ruths in PSA 9 vs 1952 Mantle PSA 3 or 1951 Bowman Mays in PSA 2 vs 1973 Mays PSA 9 (or 10)
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
I've noticed a consistent theme in your posts - you get some weird pleasure out of bashing stuff you don't collect. Is '82 Topps Football your thing? Because there's a lot of that stuff floating around. Price is stuck in the mud well off the 2021 highs.
I don't collect Shohei, but maybe just stick to appreciating your own corner of the hobby and don't take so much pleasure in watching the greatest talent since Babe Ruth suffer a devastating injury. We all lost something when Ohtani went down. He's a special, once in a generation talent, and you obviously can't get beyond your own obsession with being proved right to see that.
And the Yankees would be trying to buy another championship like they had done so many times before. It's pathetic with the payroll numbers they had back (and still have) when Jeter, Arod and Sabathia were playing...what's that 150 million in salary ....that is putrid.... how can you get excited about a team with consistently the highest payroll in baseball??? When they don't win the championship it's their own damn fault because they certainly have "unlimited" cash flow to do it with.........
chaz
Guessing you're not a fan of; Dodgers, Red Sox, Mets, Angels, Philly's either. Not the mention over the last several years San Diego, Toronto and Atlanta.
Lets see are you a fan of the Cheatin' Astros? Or one of the Royal like teams with a Super Wealthy owner content to suckle on the socialistic teet of the others.
BTW top 20 list of the 2023 net worth of MLB team owners. Steinbrenner does NOT place in the top 10.
Owner name Team Net Worth
Steven A. Cohen New York Mets $17.5 Billion
Edward S. Rogers III Toronto Blue Jays $11.4 Billion
John C. Malone Atlanta Braves $9.2 Billion
Mark Lerner Washington Nationals $6.4 Billion
Charles Johnson San Francisco Giants $5 Billion
Lawrence J. Dolan Cleveland Guardians $4.6 Billion
Arte Moreno Los Angeles Angels $4.1 Billion
William O. DeWitt Jr. St. Louis Cardinals $4 Billion
John W. Henry Boston Red Sox $4 Billion
Michael Ilitch Sr. Detroit Tigers $4 Billion
Hal Steinbrenner New York Yankees $3.8 Billion
Jim Pohlad Minnesota Twins $3.6 Billion
Mark Walter Los Angeles Dodgers $3.4 Billion
John Middleton Philadelphia Phillies $3.4 Billion
Peter Seidler San Diego Padres $3 Billion
Ray C. Davis Texas Rangers $2.6 Billion
John J. Fisher Oakland Athletics $2.2 Billion
Jerry Reinsdorf Chicago White Sox $2.2 Billion
Peter G. Angelos Baltimore Orioles $2 Billion
Jim Crane Houston Astros $1.6 Billion
Top 10 MLB payrolls in 2023
San Diego, $248,995,932
Philadelphia, $243,009,439
L.A. Dodgers, $222,717,834
L.A. Angels, $212,228,096
Toronto, $ 209,938,983
Atlanta, $203,077,500
Texas, $195,869,490
Houston, $192,667,233
Not saying Yankees don't spend but don't the difference between 2-5 on the list is basically the oft injured skill diminished Stanton who they never should have got.
My prediction is over the course of his contact Othani spends more games on the IL/DL than on the active roster.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
You can't defend what I said with that kid.... look at the payrolls for the last 60 years and how many championships the Yankees won vs. everyone else???? Yankees have won 9 championships and no one else comes close.....it's pathetic....
chaz
60 years ago was 1963, in that time the Yankees have 7 Championships NOT 9. The 7 were 77,78,96,98,99,00,09 . My minor was Mathematics so i was decent at counting stuff
I'm sure you'll now extend that to 62 (glad to do the math for you) to fit whatever your narrative actually is...
BTW kid explain how the Red Sox won 4 this century, were all the players doing it pro-bono?? How ever did Manny Ramirez pay for his custom PEDs?
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
One thing Ohtani and Ruth have both done...popularized the sport to a whole new level. Ruth in the US and Ohtani in Japan.
The market for buying his cards will likely dip until he is back again. 30 isn't old in baseball or basketball, just in football and hockey because of the contact. Vision doesn't usually diminish until mid to late 30s. His injury is an oblique, not a rotator cuff, hip, acl/mcl, back, neck, or something devastating.
In 30 years it will be interesting to see his rookie card in a PSA10 vs a 1982 Cal Ripken Jr PSA10. It has taken 42 years for CRjr to get to the levels which Ohtani reached in 5. Time will tell.
Agreed, however if Ohtani never play again he will hold no offensive or pitching records and will not be in the Hall. He will be an interesting footnote but not one that will support 5-6 figure cards.
Which brings me to the point; if he is a one-way player going forward, his offensive numbers had better be in the all-time range just to maintain their lofty values. That mostly hinges on him being able to stay off the IL/DL and that part ain't looking so good at moment and at 30 next year he wont be young for a ball player. Is this a blip and he'll play mostly without injury for 5-7 more historic seasons starting in 2025 when he's 31? Or is this a sign he is all too human and body now starting to break down which will get worse commensurate with age due to the toll of being a 2-way ballplayer?
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
You are conveniently leaving out 61' & 62'... it's a total of 9 which is RIDICULOUS....you can not defend this boy ....9 championships and there isn't anyone even close... I can't wait to bury you on the 1990 Fleer Basketball wax which you conveniently ignored my post on since you have no defense.... and you know it..... BTW... the Red Sox looked at the Yankees and said if the Yankees are buying championships then why can't we...Money doesn't talk it SCREAMS to these players (and everyone else I might add)....they go where the money is ...they don't care where they play....as long as the money is there....
chaz
You're 100% right. All his cards are going to $0. People will be paying you to take them. Billions will be lost. And everyone will cry "OMG, 82FootballWaxMemorys was right!"
Now go find something else to start a fight over.
We could discuss how Ohtani is about to indirectly cause Trouty's cards to tank. It was only recently that Trouty was considered to be a candidate for MLB's "Mount Rushmore". Now, he most likely wouldn't even be on the Mount Rushmore of MLB players that have worn an Angels uniform.
Ryan, Reggie, Pujols, and Ohtani.
Then, consider the backlash that is coming from Angels fans once they realize that they're stuck with that bum on their team while Ohtani flourishes elsewhere. It's already coming out in Reddit threads. Trouty is trying to get out in front of that by low-key suggesting in the media that he's open to a trade. I can't wait for Trouty to go to an East Coast team, where everyone will still be awake for his 7th inning and later failures. Trouty will be exposed as the biggest fraud in baseball, and HIS card values are the ones to be worried about.
@82FootballWaxMemorys said:
I thought I heard that Charizard played some minor league ball in Japan for a while back in the early 90’s, but left once he caught fire and never looked back.
Live long, and prosper.
If Ohtani used PEDs then maybe his body will break down but I really doubt he is going to be prone to injury as you suggest. He is worth a ton and nobody is going to risk his value (himself, his agent, or team) to have him play injured and see his stats decline as his value declines while also making it more likely for him to be injured again more easily. An abundance of caution is what I believe is happening.
If you happen to have some Ohtani cards then feel free to dump them to me for the price of the cardstock and I'll be happy to hold onto them for the long haul.
For those not up-to-date the current year of our Lord is 2023, 60 years ago was 1963 NOT 1961
Please feel free to double check on that. Here's a helpful link;
https://www.exactlywhatistime.com/time-ago/60-years-ago-from-today
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Sure will sell them all to you at July 2023 FMV.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Give me a break boy... 61 or 62 years ago is not the point ....the point is again that the Yankees buy Championships which is PATHETIC.....9 CHAMPIONSHIPS IN 62 YRS VS anyone else in baseball (and they are not even close) is PUTRID.... how can you be fan of that??? Highest payroll in baseball year after year......
chaz
Cardinals 5; '64, '67, '82, 2006, '11
Dodgers 5 ; '63, '65, '81, '88, 2020
5 is extremely close to 7!
Sorry that whatever team you happen to like is cheap and putrid.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
welp.
1982footballdude has overtaken the most annoying message board poster championship from dan bassette. 1982 now wins. Just cuz the other guy has shut up finally and hopefully.