How scarce do you think this South Africa 1926 2 1/2 Shilling coin is?

semikeycollector

Hi,

I took a recent trip to South Africa and I like their coins.

• On returning I did some research into the coin populations at PCGS and NGC.
• I was surprised to find that a 1926 2 1/2 Shilling coin had only a population of 24 coins at NGC and 5 at PCGS. There are also 16 NGC submissions of this coin with detail grades. So a total of 45 coins were graded. Maybe some were resubmitted.
• This issue has a mintage of 205,000
• Our colleague user WCC was very helpful in explaining that less of these George the V were collected than the Kruger pieces and that there was a large melting of these for the silver value circa 1980. Plus South Africa tends to certify more coins than many countries.
• This was the only one available on Ebay. Not a high grade coin and has some minor defects.
  In all of their history Stacks has only 2 of these and Heritage had 3. I realize that these may not be the best places to find these. MA shops has none of these.

Perhaps 5 or 10 times the certified population exists (200-400) or possibly many more?
What do you think?

jdmern

I would estimate far, far, far more than a few hundred pieces in existence

semikeycollector

@jdmern said:
I would estimate far, far, far more than a few hundred pieces in existence

Jdmern,

Thank you for replying! What you say may very well be true!
I realize that this is comparing apples and oranges- since we are talking about different denominations and countries:

• 1921-d half dollar- mintage 208,000, well known key, many were saved - estimated 10,000 known per PCGS (PCGS pop 3600)
• 1886-s Liberty Seated Dime 206,000 mintage, semikey, not well known except for Seated Specialists - 350 known per (PCGS pop 113)
• I think that the 1926 2 1/2 Shilling coin may be closer in rarity to the 1886-s dime, but its a WAG (wild ass guess)

I'm continuing to look at coins on your website.

syl

Just because PCGS has a number that they have graded, not everyone has circulated coins graded, especially from countries not known for collector interest. There are many TPG's, so PCGS numbers mean very little.

semikeycollector

@syl said:
Just because PCGS has a number that they have graded, not everyone has circulated coins graded, especially from countries not known for collector interest. There are many TPG's, so PCGS numbers mean very little.

Hi Syl,

NGC is more popular for most non-US coins, than PCGS. That's mainly what I am going by for foreign coin scarcity. I tend to go by PCGS for US coins, though NGC has a good number of US coins too.

I am now checking the South African Numistmatic Grading Service will report back what I find.

Sapyx

I believe South Africa is similar to New Zealand, in terms of eBay market share: the local version of an online marketplace is more popular with the locals than the American import, and eBay has not been successful in buying out and shutting down the local rival.

Here's a recent BobShop listing for a 1926 halfcrown. Yes, you will want to search for "halfcrown" and "half crown", as well as "2 1/2 shillings" and "2½ shillings" when looking for these coins:
https://www.bobshop.co.za/item/587586492/Top_Grade_SA_Union_1926_Halfcrown_in_AVF.html

This listing went unsold for 895 rand (about US$49 at current rates). I do not believe the local market, small as it is, believes these coins are scarce or rare.

TPG pop reports may be an indicator of the scarcity of such coins in the American market, but are not a reliable indicator of overall global rarity. Most coin collectors outside of North America are still barely aware that TPGs exist. I would estimate that tens of thousands of these coins still exist.

realeswatcher

The main thing that should be said about the coin shown is that in that grade for the 1925-27 half crowns (or even the slightly better Bid Or Buy piece), it doesn't matter. As the "NGC Price Guide" (AKA Krause) correctly indicates, these jump EXPONENTIALLY in true XF and above. THOSE GRADES are what's rare and sought after.

semikeycollector

@realeswatcher said:
The main thing that should be said about the coin shown is that in that grade for the 1925-27 half crowns (or even the slightly better Bid Or Buy piece), it doesn't matter. As the "NGC Price Guide" (AKA Krause) correctly indicates, these jump EXPONENTIALLY in true XF and above. THOSE GRADES are what's rare and sought after.

Thank you realeswatcher! That certainly gives perspective.

semikeycollector

@Sapyx said:
I believe South Africa is similar to New Zealand, in terms of eBay market share: the local version of an online marketplace is more popular with the locals than the American import, and eBay has not been successful in buying out and shutting down the local rival.

Here's a recent BobShop listing for a 1926 halfcrown. Yes, you will want to search for "halfcrown" and "half crown", as well as "2 1/2 shillings" and "2½ shillings" when looking for these coins:
https://www.bobshop.co.za/item/587586492/Top_Grade_SA_Union_1926_Halfcrown_in_AVF.html

This listing went unsold for 895 rand (about US$49 at current rates). I do not believe the local market, small as it is, believes these coins are scarce or rare.

TPG pop reports may be an indicator of the scarcity of such coins in the American market, but are not a reliable indicator of overall global rarity. Most coin collectors outside of North America are still barely aware that TPGs exist. I would estimate that tens of thousands of these coins still exist.

Hi Sapyx,

Thank you for the Bob's Shop link! Yes, my population data and sources on South African coins are spotty. Will continue to gather information.

jdmern

For what it's worth, we've sold at least 30 examples of that date since 2012. My guess is there were also some lower grade examples that made it into bulk lots or damaged pieces that went out to melt as well. We did not send a single example out for grading, realistically, it is the type of coin that we probably would not be sent out for grading unless it was at least an AU. As a side note, it seems like the '27 might be quite a bit scarcer just based off of the number we've ended up with- looks like we've had under 10 examples. '28-30 we've had in bulk quantity before. Also for what it's worth, finding any of these in real UNCs is very challenging.

semikeycollector

@jdmern said:
For what it's worth, we've sold at least 30 examples of that date since 2012. My guess is there were also some lower grade examples that made it into bulk lots or damaged pieces that went out to melt as well. We did not send a single example out for grading, realistically, it is the type of coin that we probably would not be sent out for grading unless it was at least an AU. As a side note, it seems like the '27 might be quite a bit scarcer just based off of the number we've ended up with- looks like we've had under 10 examples. '28-30 we've had in bulk quantity before. Also for what it's worth, finding any of these in real UNCs is very challenging.

Hi Jdmern,

I appreciate it! This information is very helpful and only available from people with your experience! It adds much to my overall picture of the scarcity of these coins.

Best,
Ken

semikeycollector

@realeswatcher said:
The main thing that should be said about the coin shown is that in that grade for the 1925-27 half crowns (or even the slightly better Bid Or Buy piece), it doesn't matter. As the "NGC Price Guide" (AKA Krause) correctly indicates, these jump EXPONENTIALLY in true XF and above. THOSE GRADES are what's rare and sought after.

Realeswatcher,

Thank you! That makes a lot of sense and was confirmed by user Jdmern.

WCC

@semikeycollector said:

@jdmern said:
I would estimate far, far, far more than a few hundred pieces in existence

Jdmern,

Thank you for replying! What you say may very well be true!
I realize that this is comparing apples and oranges- since we are talking about different denominations and countries:

• 1921-d half dollar- mintage 208,000, well known key, many were saved - estimated 10,000 known per PCGS (PCGS pop 3600)
• 1886-s Liberty Seated Dime 206,000 mintage, semikey, not well known except for Seated Specialists - 350 known per (PCGS pop 113)
• I think that the 1926 2 1/2 Shilling coin may be closer in rarity to the 1886-s dime, but its a WAG (wild ass guess)

I'm continuing to look at coins on your website.

I rank it second generically from the KGV dates after the 1931 but this might not be accurate. My guess is somewhere around 2500 survive but concurrently, I think it's a lot scarcer vs. the 21-D or '21 WLH, more than my estimate vs. Coin Facts. The WLH is worth a lot more though as a US coin and the 1926 2/6 is mostly available locally.

I don't think the absolute number is meaningful for any 2/6 date though, except the 1931. Low budget collectors there collect as US collectors did prior to TPG. But those who spend more money mostly don't like lower quality coins.

The TPG count for the 1926 2/6 hasn't increased much in over a decade. I recall two each in MS at NGC and PCGS. I presume there are somewhat more ungraded somewhere but relatively few.

semikeycollector

@WCC said:

@semikeycollector said:

@jdmern said:
I would estimate far, far, far more than a few hundred pieces in existence

Jdmern,

Thank you for replying! What you say may very well be true!
I realize that this is comparing apples and oranges- since we are talking about different denominations and countries:

• 1921-d half dollar- mintage 208,000, well known key, many were saved - estimated 10,000 known per PCGS (PCGS pop 3600)
• 1886-s Liberty Seated Dime 206,000 mintage, semikey, not well known except for Seated Specialists - 350 known per (PCGS pop 113)
• I think that the 1926 2 1/2 Shilling coin may be closer in rarity to the 1886-s dime, but its a WAG (wild ass guess)

I'm continuing to look at coins on your website.

I rank it second generically from the KGV dates after the 1931 but this might not be accurate. My guess is somewhere around 2500 survive but concurrently, I think it's a lot scarcer vs. the 21-D or '21 WLH, more than my estimate vs. Coin Facts. The WLH is worth a lot more though as a US coin and the 1926 2/6 is mostly available locally.

I don't think the absolute number is meaningful for any 2/6 date though, except the 1931. Low budget collectors there collect as US collectors did prior to TPG. But those who spend more money mostly don't like lower quality coins.

The TPG count for the 1926 2/6 hasn't increased much in over a decade. I recall two each in MS at NGC and PCGS. I presume there are somewhat more ungraded somewhere but relatively few.

Thank you WCC! The number 2500 is very reasonable, if we assume that about 1-2% survive of the initial 200,000 or so. Is that what you were thinking?

WCC

@semikeycollector said:

@WCC said:

@semikeycollector said:

@jdmern said:
I would estimate far, far, far more than a few hundred pieces in existence

Jdmern,

Thank you for replying! What you say may very well be true!
I realize that this is comparing apples and oranges- since we are talking about different denominations and countries:

• 1921-d half dollar- mintage 208,000, well known key, many were saved - estimated 10,000 known per PCGS (PCGS pop 3600)
• 1886-s Liberty Seated Dime 206,000 mintage, semikey, not well known except for Seated Specialists - 350 known per (PCGS pop 113)
• I think that the 1926 2 1/2 Shilling coin may be closer in rarity to the 1886-s dime, but its a WAG (wild ass guess)

I'm continuing to look at coins on your website.

I rank it second generically from the KGV dates after the 1931 but this might not be accurate. My guess is somewhere around 2500 survive but concurrently, I think it's a lot scarcer vs. the 21-D or '21 WLH, more than my estimate vs. Coin Facts. The WLH is worth a lot more though as a US coin and the 1926 2/6 is mostly available locally.

I don't think the absolute number is meaningful for any 2/6 date though, except the 1931. Low budget collectors there collect as US collectors did prior to TPG. But those who spend more money mostly don't like lower quality coins.

The TPG count for the 1926 2/6 hasn't increased much in over a decade. I recall two each in MS at NGC and PCGS. I presume there are somewhat more ungraded somewhere but relatively few.

Thank you WCC! The number 2500 is very reasonable, if we assume that about 1-2% survive of the initial 200,000 or so. Is that what you were thinking?

It's actually an estimate from Alex Urruzi (collector/dealer/coin grader in SA) which I think is a reasonable ballpark estimate.