1989 randy vs griffey jr
olb31
Posts: 3,358 ✭✭✭✭✭
WAR Randy is better. Randy is easily one of the top 10 pitchers of all time. In the last 100 years his WAR would rank #4 behind only Greg, Roger and Tom ( for Pitchers).
But when comparing card prices, Griffey is dominant.
1) 1989 upper deck Griffey about $1800, Johnson $100 for PSA 10
2) 1989 Donruss griffey about $350, Johnson about $75, for a PSA 10.
3) 1989 Bowman Tiffany Griffey about $5,000, Topps tiffany Johnson about $1,600 for a PSA 10
4) 1989 opc johnson about $1,250 for a PSA 10. And this one is the hardest to come by in PSA 10 for any Griffey or Johnson rookie. (major rookies).
Even the Griffey apologists should have a rough time understanding this one. At a minimum Randy should be equal in value with Griffey.
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I agree with you, but pitchers always seem to be valued less.
WAR does not equal card prices. There are so many more factors.
I am a Randy fan, probably my favorite pitcher, but he didn’t have several Nintendo games in the 1990’s…. and everything else Griffey portrayed during his career.
edit: grammar
Nic
Guides Authored - Graded Card Scanning Guide PDF | History of the PSA Label PDF
This is an interesting thread.
I'm not a Griffey collector but always thought the card should be closer to RJ's prices than where it is now. Or that the RJ's price should be closer to the KGjr price.
Both no doubt HOF's; Randy was and is both a miserly and miserable grouch. Griffey had a huge smile and the soft skills that made him a pure fan gold.
If on field performance was the only component in FMV and collectors hearts then Nolan Ryan cards would be Phil Niekro Or perhaps near Jim Palmer level. Nothing wrong with that but as post 1967 Baseball goes Ryan is pretty much Mantle level it terms of demand.
Besides Johnson simply can't hold a candle to Bobby Orr!
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
I am glad it's still a hobby and people collect who they like and not just treat things like an investment.
Don't get me wrong, I sometimes pick up a card because it's "undervalued", but in general I collect guys I watched play for my local teams.
joe, that's the big question. they both played at the same time. randy beat the yankees in the series. accomplished more than ken. so why isn't randy the most popular card between the two. his war is better too.
i like both of them and both were great, but randy was a little better in my opinion.
except nolan. but i agree.
Chicks do dig the long ball
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
i thought they liked the "Big Unit"!!!
It was interesting 2 months ago.
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/comment/13508215#Comment_13508215
Less interesting this go around.
Johnson was crotchety, started out in Montreal, and took a few years to approach greatness, faked an injury to get out of Seattle, shoved a reporter on his first day in New York, etc. Junior was mega-hyped from Day One and was great almost immediately.
It's not any great mystery why Griffey is a bigger seller.
I can certainly see anyone who says Johnson was "better", but Griffey was an everyday player and he had a great smile, everyone seemed to like him.
Johnson was a dangerous type of player, who might just kill you with a fastball.
You could make a similar comparison with Mantle and Mays. I'm not going to say one was that much better than the other, but Mantle's cards are out of this world expensive.
I absolutely agree that Johnson "should" be worth more than he is. Tom Seaver should be worth a LOT more too.
Certain players just seem to end up being "special" even if the numbers don't agree.
I collect guys I enjoyed watching regardless of the fact there were "better" players to collect.
I have picked up quite a few Griffey cards, but I am "working" on a Puckett set. Probably makes no sense to you, but that's where I get my enjoyment.
You are spot on when it comes to evaluating players and how they "should" be valued, but it's more about fun than investing for me.
I did pick up a couple of 1989 Fleer glossy sets because of one of your earlier posts and both Griffey's are pretty well centered. One (maybe both?) looks like it could be a 10.
Strictly talking Upper Deck. It was the premier product in '89, cost a buck more a pack, was marketed and hyped for Griffey debuting in the big leagues and everyone took the bait and wanted his card. Griffey produced and Johnson was just another rookie. Fast forward, IMO, Griffey is probably one of the most submitted and overpriced cards in the hobby. But the demand is still there for a nostalgic, iconic card that paved the way for the hobby to transition into higher end products like SP, Chrome, Finest, refractors, etc.....
Johnson undervalued: yes. Johnson desired: no. Population control that Griffey gems at approximately 4-5% and Johnson is 3 times that rate probably figures into market value.
@RonSportscards said:
olp31 must be sittin' on a huge pile of R Johnson rookies
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Census medians must be maintained! 1st line in 5th verse of the Who's Join Together sings the song.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
When you talk about iconic cards through the eras UD Griffey is always in the conversation. It started a whole new interest in collecting.
Why is the 1986-87 Jordan so popular and expensive when there are thousands available when a George Mikan in high grade is much rarer?
Why is the 52 Mantle iconic and not his 51 Bowman rookie?
Why is the T206 Wagner iconic when there are other T206’s far rarer?
Perception, popularity and cards even non collectors can identify will always be more desirable than cards seasoned collectors think should be worth more.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
I do have a few Randy rookies. I have several nice Griffey cards too. I find it interesting when I talk about Trout, WAR always comes up as to why his cards are so expensive. When I use it to compare Randy and Jr., their personalities are the major difference or the Iconic Upper Deck is the Difference.
I am not saying anyones opinions are wrong.
And Joe, i do collect Puckett. I have a fleer update 9.5, a 1985 tiffany 9.5, a Fleer 1985 psa 10, all self graded.
Keep the opinions coming. I like comparing players and their card prices, as you can tell.
I enjoy your undervalued comparisons as they are always a fun topic. Of all your comparisons, I believe this one has the most merit. As always, popularity goes beyond 'WAR' in terms of card prices, but in this case, Johnson is clearly the superior player of the two. Yes, a pitcher most certainly can be a better baseball player than a 'position' player, and they can be compared. One prevents runs, one creates runs. A run prevented is the same as a run created. Unit prevented them better than Griffey created them. Also, an Ace has a value that a position player can't quite match(at least they used to).
The difference in card prices as you pointed out is astronomical. Unit's cards are certainly underpriced compared to Griffey.
Unfortunately Unit's RC's are in the junk era and that is going to hurt on a historical level. This hasn't hurt Griffey...yet.
As a result, it is possible Unit's RC's are currently priced right but Griffey's are way over valued.
Even non/casual collectors I know are interested in Griffey RCs, I was chasing the his 1989 rookies in PSA 10 for a while and it was one of the most active buy/sell markets for any modern baseball player. Everyone seemed to be buying one.
Bottom line: Griffey Jr collectors dwarf RJohnson's. Supply and Demand and in this case the latter is paramount set the market. No argument over on-field performance or WAR will ever change that.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
@olb31
If you want a card that is undervalued based on the stats, then look no further than Eddie Collins.
Eddie Collins has a 124 WAR good for 10th all time
Ty Cobb has a 151 WAR good for 4th all time.
Apples to Apples in the T206 set, the last examples sold in REA in same grade:
PSA 4 Eddie Collins $750
SGC 4 Cobb Bat on shoulder $9,000
It isn't just sabermetric stats either. Collins has lifetime .333 average and 3,315 hits for a second baseman. With six World Series championships. He was also a member of one of the most famous teams ever, The Black Sox(though he was not one of the banned players. Ironically, his cards may have been worth more if he was).
Collins cards are pennies on the dollar compared to similar contemporaries.
Popularity is the reason we've concluded. Both the popularity of the players and the cards. The reason for the popularity have been hit on.
Personalities
Marketing (SNES KGjr baseball with the homerun derby challenge...that surely added a few fans)
Sex appeal (I don't switch hit but this is a valid point for popularity in some cases)
Ken Griffey Sr was well liked and we wanted to see a professionals son become elite. Sort of like Jordan/LBJ fans hoped their kids would be even better so we could be reminded of our childhoods.
Randy was focused. Griffey was blasting souvenirs to the crowd. On camera they seem like polar opposites and many pitchers, like myself, really enjoyed the focus and seeing Randy work through the stressful moments.
Serious collectors often have both cards in these discussions. I have cards of both in slabs. But the guys whose cards sell for more when they seem to fall short on paper is usually based on popularity. It's the only logical thing I can think of to explain why so many are graded when there are endless graded options for sale currently and until the end of time.
In the hobby, Griffey is iconic. He ushered in the hobby boom and (as far as we know) was a clean slugger in a era of juiced up juicy juicers. His inserts from the 1990s reign supreme over everyone else. In fact, he pretty much holds the torch until Trout shows up. Pujols has some monster rookies but even with him when the dust settles Griffey trumps him when it comes to inserts afterward.
No one cares about Johnson's inserts. No one cares about pitchers, even some of the greatest all-time, like Johnson. This is not new, it goes all the way back to prewar. WaJo, Christy, Plank, Alexander, etc. all get trumped by the hitters of the era.
The hobby likes hitters. I suppose we could fill up ten pages of debate about how it should be but it would be just another exercise in futility.
Arthur
Griffey never blew up a bird in mid flight! Maybe the ASCPA and PITA people soften the demand for Johnson
i know through history that pitchers cards don't get the respect that they may due in the hobby. Obviously in the game they do, with huge contracts and they fill up the stadium when they pitch.
Since Topps began producing cards, two of the most collected and most desired player cards are Mickey Mantle and Nolan Ryan. Might be the two most desired since 1950. Obviously Ryan is a pitcher. And according to other discussions, a lot of people on the board don't feel like he may even be a top 10 pitcher of all-time or at least somewhere near 10.
overall, popularity (however that is ultimately defined) is the number 1 draw according to everyone. Sounds like a simple answer. But really what goes into popularity?
1) the media's take ( which as we have seen the last few years isn't right a lot)
2) How nice a person is when they do an interview
3) charity work
4) personal looks (good looking, scroungy, etc)
5) team they play for (although the Mariners aren't a household commodity)
So is seems like how good someone is plays less of a factor than some or all of the items listed above. Stats matter but not as much as other qualities. Our hobby definitely has a lot of nuances.
Personally, like I said above, i collect both of these guys. I consider Randy to be a much better talent than Ken.
Popularity is certainly hard to define, but in the end it is still what the player does on the field that drives their popularity, how exciting/alluring it is in the process, and how many people are aware of it due to the hype and attention. I don't think many cards are popular due to interviews or personality. Jay Johnstone doesn't have a legion of fans driving his card prices up, nor does Bill Lee.
Griffey was tabbed to be the next mega star from the beginning and he had a familiar name - Hype. When he got his chance he did well from the get go and when he started doing good, he delivered big, and it was hitting Home Runs that was the driving force to his ability(exciting/alluring). He was being tabbed as the guy that could break Maris's record(more hype). Then he came close to doing it(exciting/alluring). Add the neat things like hitting back to back home runs with his father in MLB and his highlight reel ability in CF....there you have it.
Mantle in a nutshell hit massive long home runs and hit them often, and he did it in a time when people across the nation could only see some players when the World Series was on...and he hit more home runs in the world series than anyone ever has....and was the leader of the Yankee dynasty. Multiple MVP's etc...all well known.
Griffey's smile and Mantle's country boy charm certainly add to all that...and also add to them getting more exposure than a recluse...but without the on field resume, charm doesn't matter.
We know the story of all these guys.
Do the same exercise with Ryan and his strikeouts and Guinness Book of world records fastball MPH that was the awe of every kid/fan...and then he backed it up by setting single season strikeout record and all time record. Ryan never had the charisma or charm of Griffey or Mantle. He came across as surly sometimes actually.
The popular cards of players have these extra exciting aspects to their games.
Who knows how any of these above players will even sustain into the future though. Once the generations of fans are gone who saw them, you are left with the historical record book and the media continuing any hype on them. There has to be a reason for the media to continue hype on them though. Why will the media in 25 years continue to hype Griffey? Ryan? Mantle? Ryan and Mantle have statistical achievements that automatically will give them recognition. Ryan with the strikeouts and Mantle with the World Series Home Run record. Mantle was part of the Golden Age of baseball that seems to grow even stronger in time as 'the time that everyone wishes we could experience', and that is powerful too.
There could be thinks like "Eight Men Out" that highlighted the Black Sox story that gave massive popularity to Joe Jackson and company to fans that may not have otherwise cared. That popularity has sustained, especially with Joe Jackson. However, a movie may not amount to anything either for a player either. Never know what will gain public traction.
The historical record is cemented though. As long as baseball exists as it does now, then there will always be 'records' and players chasing someone before them. The OP is onto something with WAR. With as much negative hype WAR gets from older fans now, it is becoming mainstream more and more. In the end, it could be the only exciting reason to collect a player from 80 years ago that one never saw play, because his WAR is 'the highest ever for second baseman', etc...
@olb31 and I seem to see it differently. Stats in the first few years don't matter if the player is not getting hyped up by media. Nowadays we have social media where guys like Tristan Jass can gain "popularity" through whatever marketing TJass did and the NBA has been helping him too. Clearly the NBA is investing in him. Put him on the cover of sports illustrated for kids, have him do some And1 style events, and there is a following. There's likely much more talent than Tristan but not as much support going into it.
It's less about your stats and more with popularity. How do you explain the prices of cards like Cal Ripken "FF" or the classic "Nutt shot" cards? It isn't how rare they are but the demand that makes it worth something. These cards became popular. The cards didn't become worth much because of their stats.
WAR is another stat. Another debatable number. WAR can make people talk but I don't think WAR will ever be the reason a card catches fire.
Johnson could have been made quite a bit more popular but it likely wasn't ever going to get him a super Nintendo game. You know you will go down as a legend if you have your own game. Tiger Woods golf, Madden football, Barkley 3on3 street ball, Kungfu Shaq, Magic vs Bird 1on1, etc.
Having watched the Mariners for decades I've come to believe there is a blip in the space/time continuum in the Northwest when it comes to baseball. Take Griffey, Johnson, Edgar all HOFer's, and Ichiro (eligible in 2025). Now imagine them in, say, Yankees pinstripes for their careers and I can't help but think they would be viewed in a much more positive light. The Mariner's are a franchise that has been standing in a puddle of mediocrity for decades. The Mariner's franchise history has no depth. Think Yankees history or Boston or practically any other MLB franchise and the M's have little to hang their hat on. Sure, they had the '95 run but ran out of gas and fell short. 2001 was a bit different but essentially the same. Yes, they won 116 games in 2001 but... big deal. It's a record that has little meaning AND they have to share it with the Cubbies anyway so it's not unique. Other than that it's been pretty quiet. Actually really quiet.
And, the capper is Seattle is the only franchise that has never been to the WS much less won. Until just recently they held the dubious honor of being the only US major men's sports franchise to not make it to the playoffs for a couple DECADES.
Seattle is where baseball cards go to die.
Randy and Nolan are Top 5 pitchers of all time. Feared and dominant for decades.
I would be a little nervous hoping Griffey cards will be holding their value long term. Prices are so high and cards are way too plentiful. I would guess that pretty much every collector that was alive during his heyday already has his RC(or had it and sold them at the height knowing it would be easy to get them back). His allure was felt by the people who saw it unfold and that was real and deserved. He doesn't have lasting records or string of championships to hold the same attention 30 years down the road when most never saw him play in his prime when he became so popular. So absolutely, if you had his video game when it came out, that is great...but I don't think that video game carries much weight going further down the road..
Johnson doesn't hold a big record, but he does have a higher statistical standing than Griffey does and Johnson does have five Cy Young awards to go with being second all time in strikeouts. Those have staying power. Having the most Cy Young awards ever for a Hall of Fame pitcher is also strong...though that could change if Clemens ever gets in.
Although in terms of cards, Johnsons also suffers from the plentiful amount of his rookie cards too. I have a hard time seeing any plentiful card from that era as a good venture going forward.
As of now Randy Johnson is also the last pitcher to join the 300 win club. He may hold that distinction for quite some time and that is something with staying power that will keep his name in some sort of prominence among collectors possibly forever(or at least until WWIII).
Regarding you saying you would be a little nervous hoping Griffey cards will be holding their value long term I can say I heard that same argument 10 ago and if you revisit this thread in 10 years you will see that just isn't the case. Like Mickey Mantle, Ken Griffey Junior was an Icon and his Icon status will never change. If you ask 100 random people over the age 20 right now if they know who he is 95 would. Randy Johnson would maybe get 10 and it's more likely to get responses like who that, a NASCAR driver or a Country Music singer
Another factor that will help the high grade PSA 9 and 10's hold their value is the grading standards have changed. You can't just open 10 factory sets, send the cards in, and get 1 PSA 10, 2 PSA 9, 4 PSA 8, and 3 PSA 7's. Now it's much more likely you would get 1 PSA 9, 4 PSA 8, 3 PSA 7, and the other 2 declared misscut,minsize, etc.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
I believe Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine answered this question in a commercial a long time ago.
interesting to know that Randy Johnson cards are finally going somewhere, ive collected him since 89, along with the Griffey cards, and ive got 4 of the donruss Griffey rookie cards , and dozens of the donruss, topps,fleer and upper deck rookies of Johnson. Ken Griffey Jr is what got me back into the baseball card collecting in 1990. The store got a whole donruss 1989 store display, 89 cards in the 1990 season, so they already had value, right out of the jumbo packs, i got 2 griffey jr rookies in ONE PACK! 1989 WAS LOADED with HOF and superstar players, BIGGIO, edgar martinez, and then you had sheffield, sosa, and belle bashing the ball with griffey with johnson and jim abbott tossing it. 5 HOF players from the rookie class of 1989 , not TOO bad of a year for one to start collecting, 89-03 before i had a family, i still managed to acquire EASILY 100k cards, probably closer to 2 or 300k cards mostly baseball and other sports but close to 1000 garbage pail kids cards ive had since new, pokemon and magic and other customizable card games by decipher, star trek and star wars. i also still have happy days, jaws , battlestar galactica, and the star wars trilogy, to go with some of the old planet of the apes and batman cards acquired as a kid, so im glad to see some cards i collect have gone up, i have i would guess an EASY 30-50 cards of each griffey and johnson from rookie to end of career and 20+ biggio rookies from the rack of jumbos. 1990 the year i started is also the year the upper deck included the micheal jordan special insert card that i managed to snag and still have 2 of.
Except random people don't buy baseball cards. If you ask 100 card collectors who Griffey is, whatever that number is, then 99% will also know Randy Johnson.
Johnson will always hold a higher place in baseball 'standing'. That endures. The late 80's/early 90's hype Griffey excitement will fade for people that were no there to see it. Had Griffey not had a disappointing career after Seattle, that would have been a different story.
Ironically, I just sent a picture to a friend who is a big sports nut. It was of players at a Hall of Fame dinner. The friend recognized Chipper and Winfield...but not Griffey
The recent run up on Griffey cards won't hold. There is no earthly reason for such a common card to have the run up it recently had over last couple years. Every card collector who wants a Griffey already has one. Then dealers also have stacks of them. Who is going to buy the cards in the future to cause another price surge if every collector already has one and dealers have stacks of them?
And Griffey was not icon status of Mantle though...not at all. Mantle is the King of the Golden Age of baseball. That has historical teeth and that will endure far longer.
For comparison, every collector does NOT own a Mantle RC(or even a playing days Mantle card), so in 25 years when new collectors enter who never saw either play, it isn't hard to see which card will still hold its value and which one won't.
In March of 2020 just before Covid, the PSA 10 Upper Deck Griffey was averaging $600-$700.
In April of 2020 it was averaging $1,200-$1,700. It held that range through Dec of 2020.
The peak of early 2021 it was going for $5,000!
Then for the rest of 2021 there was a slow descent back into the low $2,000 range.
Then since then somewhere between $1,600-$2,000. Not counting the random outlier blips.
Granted, the market as whole grew, so expecting it to go back to the $600-$700 range probably won't happen.
Other cards that are truly harder to obtain have still maintained their prices and some have even climbed since the peak of 2021. Griffey is way down from that peak and is creeping back toward the pre covid ranges.
This is for PSA 10 with a pop of 4,000+ cards...but the 9 population is an insanely high 29,673. Not to mention every other grade and ungraded that seemingly 'grow on trees'.
Considering that cards have been put into a new class as assets as well as collectibles, there is still room for growth in many cards.
Another headwind could be how collectors view the grades. Who knows how things will change in 20 years. It is possible that many will look at a 9 and see it looks the same as a 10, and then just opt for the 9 instead of spending 10 times the price for a 10....and there are plenty of 9s to choose from. I don't know if that will happen. I do know that there are already people like that though.
Yes, I would be worried about the Griffey card. The incentive to buy Griffey in the future will diminish, and the card is just too dang common to withstand even a sliver in the drop in demand.
In a nutshell
The PSA 10 Upper Deck Randy Johnson was a $50 card before covid. It is currently a solid $100 card via most recent Ebay sales.
The PSA 10 Upper Deck Griffey was a $650 card pre covid. The last three Ebay auction sales averaged $2,000.
I would say the OP's point has some merit going forward.
Almost 35 years since Griffey and Johnson were rookies. I think their positions in the hobby are set. The only time I’ve seen a price surge (besides the pandemic) from Junk Wax era rookies is when one of the stat nerds make a compelling case about some overlooked analysis or if they get a HOF push after many years of missing.
The book on RJ and Griffey is complete. Their stats have been endlessly studied and both are already in the HOF. The hobby has rendered their judgement -Griffey is more valuable.
Sayhey’s point about the Gem Rate is probably the other main reason RJs 1989 UD will never be close to Griffey. Not only is the RJ Gem Rate 3-4x more than Griffey, there are almost 1000 more PSA 10 RJ with only 1/3 of the subs. Sure the Griffey pop is high, RJs is even higher and will only get higher.
nolan has always be high on the collectibles market. but i will say that his cards have really rose over the last five years.
a 1973 psa 8 sells for almost twice as much as clemente, mays, and aaron.
a 1977 psa 9 sells for more than dawson and murphy
a 1975 opc psa 9 sold for 7,000. more than brett yount and aaron.
In March of 2020 just before Covid, the PSA 10 Upper Deck Griffey was averaging $600-$700.
In April of 2020 it was averaging $1,200-$1,700. It held that range through Dec of 2020.
The peak of early 2021 it was going for $5,000!
Then for the rest of 2021 there was a slow descent back into the low $2,000 range.
Then since then somewhere between $1,600-$2,000. Not counting the random outlier blips.
Granted, the market as whole grew, so expecting it to go back to the $600-$700 range probably won't happen.
Other cards that are truly harder to obtain have still maintained their prices and some have even climbed since the peak of 2021. Griffey is way down from that peak and is creeping back toward the pre covid ranges.
This is for PSA 10 with a pop of 4,000+ cards...but the 9 population is an insanely high 29,673. Not to mention every other grade and ungraded that seemingly 'grow on trees'.
Considering that cards have been put into a new class as assets as well as collectibles, there is still room for growth in many cards.
Another headwind could be how collectors view the grades. Who knows how things will change in 20 years. It is possible that many will look at a 9 and see it looks the same as a 10, and then just opt for the 9 instead of spending 10 times the price for a 10....and there are plenty of 9s to choose from. I don't know if that will happen. I do know that there are already people like that though.
Yes, I would be worried about the Griffey card. The incentive to buy Griffey in the future will diminish, and the card is just too dang common to withstand even a sliver in the drop in demand.
In March of 2020 just before Covid, the PSA 10 Upper Deck Griffey was averaging $600-$700.
In April of 2020 it was averaging $1,200-$1,700. It held that range through Dec of 2020.
The peak of early 2021 it was going for $5,000!
Then for the rest of 2021 there was a slow descent back into the low $2,000 range.
Then since then somewhere between $1,600-$2,000. Not counting the random outlier blips.
Granted, the market as whole grew, so expecting it to go back to the $600-$700 range probably won't happen.
Other cards that are truly harder to obtain have still maintained their prices and some have even climbed since the peak of 2021. Griffey is way down from that peak and is creeping back toward the pre covid ranges.
This is for PSA 10 with a pop of 4,000+ cards...but the 9 population is an insanely high 29,673. Not to mention every other grade and ungraded that seemingly 'grow on trees'.
Considering that cards have been put into a new class as assets as well as collectibles, there is still room for growth in many cards.
Another headwind could be how collectors view the grades. Who knows how things will change in 20 years. It is possible that many will look at a 9 and see it looks the same as a 10, and then just opt for the 9 instead of spending 10 times the price for a 10....and there are plenty of 9s to choose from. I don't know if that will happen. I do know that there are already people like that though.
Yes, I would be worried about the Griffey card. The incentive to buy Griffey in the future will diminish, and the card is just too dang common to withstand even a sliver in the drop in demand.
In March of 2020 just before Covid, the PSA 10 Upper Deck Griffey was averaging $600-$700.
In April of 2020 it was averaging $1,200-$1,700. It held that range through Dec of 2020.
The peak of early 2021 it was going for $5,000!
Then for the rest of 2021 there was a slow descent back into the low $2,000 range.
Then since then somewhere between $1,600-$2,000. Not counting the random outlier blips.
Granted, the market as whole grew, so expecting it to go back to the $600-$700 range probably won't happen.
Other cards that are truly harder to obtain have still maintained their prices and some have even climbed since the peak of 2021. Griffey is way down from that peak and is creeping back toward the pre covid ranges.
This is for PSA 10 with a pop of 4,000+ cards...but the 9 population is an insanely high 29,673. Not to mention every other grade and ungraded that seemingly 'grow on trees'.
Considering that cards have been put into a new class as assets as well as collectibles, there is still room for growth in many cards.
Another headwind could be how collectors view the grades. Who knows how things will change in 20 years. It is possible that many will look at a 9 and see it looks the same as a 10, and then just opt for the 9 instead of spending 10 times the price for a 10....and there are plenty of 9s to choose from. I don't know if that will happen. I do know that there are already people like that though.
Yes, I would be worried about the Griffey card. The incentive to buy Griffey in the future will diminish, and the card is just too dang common to withstand even a sliver in the drop in demand.
What hasn't been said (or I missed it) is the fact that the iconic cards, like the Upper Deck Griffey are cards some people want to have multiple copies of.
Yes there are a lot out there, but the demand (WAR notwithstanding) is still there.
I'm a Ryan buyer and this is 100% true. His stuff is crazy-expensive. Just check out some auctions on his 78 PSA 9 from this year. Those are now probably the most expensive 9s in the set.
In my opinion Randy has definite growth potential on all cards. Many Griffey cards are going to go up, but there will be a limit on the Upper Deck. 30,000 PSa 9's make the 9 practically worthless in my book. It's 10 or bust.
OPC Randy Johnson has about 50 PSA 10's. SHould be selling for multiples of the Griffey upper deck, so should the Johnson tffany.
Yup. Already missed the run up on Griffey Upper Deck. It could fall just as hard...and has started to already. Hence why I would be worried. I would guess(pure guess not advice) that the Griffey Upper Deck PSA 10 settles in the $1,200 range two years from now. Still up from pre covid since the market is strong as a whole and did have a revival.
The iconic status is already priced in. It is only its iconic status that keeps it from falling back to the $700 level where the price is a little more plausible(yet still inflated a little high even there).
The Griffey hype was warranted in his Seattle time and that drove his Upper Deck card. History won't feel that hype too much in the future. He disappointed too much after Seattle.
The Griffey Upper Deck grows on trees. I saw a few in my backyard this morning.
Do you look at any Johnson Tiffany cards? 100 pop in PSA 10 for the base set card.
Yup. Already missed the run up on Griffey Upper Deck. It could fall just as hard...and has started to already. Hence why I would be worried. I would guess(pure guess not advice) that the Griffey Upper Deck PSA 10 settles in the $1,200 range two years from now. Still up from pre covid since the market is strong as a whole and did have a revival.
The iconic status is already priced in. It is only its iconic status that keeps it from falling back to the $700 level where the price is a little more plausible(yet still inflated a little high even there).
The Griffey hype was warranted in his Seattle time and that drove his Upper Deck card History won't feel that hype too much in the future. He disappointed too much after Seattle.
The Griffey Upper Deck grows on trees. I saw a few in my backyard this morning.
Do you look at any Johnson Tiffany cards? 100 pop in PSA 10 for the base set card.
I picked up an RJ Tiffany PSA 10 RC recently...anyone know the total POP of PSA 10's?
ETA...just found it...110 PSA 10's on the Tiffany.
That's probably the card to have of him. That and the infamous "OPC".
My RJ preference is the 1989 Fleer Marlboro Ad on Scoreboard card. The challenge with these is inconsistent slab labeling and antecdotal pop numbers. I know it is a love it or hate it card but RJ's rarest RC is likely one of its 13+ versions.