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How far away is Jacob deGrom from the Hall of Fame?

daltexdaltex Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭✭✭

OK, but hear me out. deGrom may only have 84 wins (as I type) but his counting stats are better than a lot of HoFers, and his rate stats are elite. I'm not comparing deGrom to the likes of Hunter, Morris, or Sutton, but, for example, his RAA is higher than that of Koufax or Ford despite having pitched 1000 innings fewer than Koufax and well fewer than half as many as Ford.

Counting only AL and NL seasons, because I doubt the completeness of Negro League stats, for pitchers with at least 1300 IP, only Kershaw, deGrom, and Pedro Martinez have ERA+ over 150, Only deGrom and (checks notes) Chris Sale have struck out more than 11 batters per nine innings.

So, is he a HoFer if he retires today, or do we need to see more from him and, if so, how much more?

Comments

  • Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 1,838 ✭✭✭✭

    Hes not close to the HOF. He has the stuff to be a HOFer but part of that includes longevity and not just 4 good years. He has a long way to go and hes 35 now and hasnt been healthy since 2019

  • craig44craig44 Posts: 10,230 ✭✭✭✭✭

    ^^^^^^^^^ Basebal21 has it completely correct. Degrom is a fantastic pitcher, when he is healthy, but he is seldom healthy

    George Brett, Bobby Orr and Terry Bradshaw.

  • dallasactuarydallasactuary Posts: 4,081 ✭✭✭✭✭

    He's 600 innings shy of Dizzy Dean, the most comparable HOF pitcher. It took Dean 11 ballots to get in, and even then it was at least as much due to how well-liked he was than to his pitching career. If DeGrom pitches 600 more innings, which at his recent pace will take him 8 years or so, then I might consider him a low-tier HOFer like Dean. As it is, he's got two HOF seasons, and a handful more very good seasons that HOF pitchers ought to have a lot more of. When he's healthy enough to pitch, he pitches great, he just hasn't been healthy enough to pitch often enough.

    • Clearly, DeGrom is far more deserving of the HOF than Catfish Hunter and Jack Morris and other non-entities. But I think you agree that "better than Catfish Hunter" is not where the HOF line ought to be drawn.
    This is for you @thisistheshow - Jim Rice was actually a pretty good player.
  • georgebailey2georgebailey2 Posts: 1,029 ✭✭✭

  • JoeBanzaiJoeBanzai Posts: 11,103 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I see 3 good/great years.

    2013,14 and 15 Certificate Award Winner Harmon Killebrew Master Set and Master Topps Set
  • jay0791jay0791 Posts: 3,498 ✭✭✭✭

    long way to go.
    Made of glass.

    Collecting PSA... FB,BK,HK,and BB HOF RC sets
    1948-76 Topps FB Sets
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    1948-1993 NY Yankee Team Sets
  • georgebailey2georgebailey2 Posts: 1,029 ✭✭✭

    Seriously, as others have pointed out, despite the two Cy Youngs, he isn't on the field enough to dramatically have an impact for the team. That may change, but his age and continued frequency of being on the IL make me think he won't be able to put together the two to four full seasons he would need from a quantitative standpoint.

  • thisistheshowthisistheshow Posts: 9,386 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @daltex said:
    OK, but hear me out. deGrom may only have 84 wins (as I type) but his counting stats are better than a lot of HoFers, and his rate stats are elite. I'm not comparing deGrom to the likes of Hunter, Morris, or Sutton, but, for example, his RAA is higher than that of Koufax or Ford despite having pitched 1000 innings fewer than Koufax and well fewer than half as many as Ford.

    Counting only AL and NL seasons, because I doubt the completeness of Negro League stats, for pitchers with at least 1300 IP, only Kershaw, deGrom, and Pedro Martinez have ERA+ over 150, Only deGrom and (checks notes) Chris Sale have struck out more than 11 batters per nine innings.

    So, is he a HoFer if he retires today , or do we need to see more from him and, if so, how much more?

    .....
    I believe the lowest wins by a starting pitcher in the baseball HOF is 140 something. So it would be a stretch, for sure ...

  • thisistheshowthisistheshow Posts: 9,386 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Eventually things like wins for pitchers and hits for hitters will become less and less the barometers of success which they once were, and therefore we will see players inducted with career numbers that aren't your typical "back of the card" old school stats.

  • dallasactuarydallasactuary Posts: 4,081 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I looked at this a lot more closely and I've revised my position somewhat. He's still a "no" from me, but he's closer than I thought at first look. If you compare him to universally recognized HOF pitchers, he's not particularly close. If you compare him to borderline, but still deserving, HOF pitchers, he's still short but he's gaining.

    I compared him to the pitchers I thought of as possibly deserving but who aren't in the HOF, and in that group he fits in much better. I looked at RAA, since that was the stat @daltex used and it's as good as any, for the pitcher's top 3 seasons, top 5 seasons, and top 9 seasons (I'd have done top 10, but deGrom only has 9).

    Kevin Brown, Bret Saberhagen, and Kevin Appier beat deGrom across the board, and somewhat handily; they are clearly better then deGrom.

    deGrom edges David Cone in top 3, but loses top 5 and top 9, plus Cone has more beyond that. It's not as crystal clear as it is with the group above, but I still see Cone as being clearly better.

    deGrom's top 2 are much better than Dave Stieb's, but Stieb wins seasons 3 through 9, and by quite a bit. I think Stieb is better.

    It gets very gray with Wilbur Wood and Rick Reuschel. Wood beats deGrom in top 3 (in fact he wins in each season of their top 3) and then fades away, although he still beats deGrom (by 1) in a top 5 comparison. deGrom beats Rick Reuschel in top 3 by a clear margin, and in top 5 by a small margin, but Reuschel beats deGrom easily in top 9 plus has quite a bit more beyond that. Place a ton of weight on top 3, which seems to me to be deGrom's strongest case, and he looks great, but he gets in line behind Wilbur Wood. Place more weight on career stats and deGrom still looks OK, but he falls way behind Rick Reuschel. In my opinion, and this is just an opinion, using my weights for peak and career, deGrom is still behind Reuschel, but he's edged past Wilbur Wood. Your weights may vary.

    The last pitcher I looked at was Luis Tiant. deGrom's top 2 blow Tiant's away, and Tiant's next 7 years blow deGrom's away. In the end, Tiant beats deGrom in top 9 RAA by 6. Tiant has a tiny career advantage, but once you place extra weight on peak (as I think you should), no matter what extra weight you give it, deGrom is ahead of Tiant.

    So deGrom's closest peer group includes Luis Tiant, Rick Reuschlel, and Wilbur Wood. None of them are in the HOF, and none are likely to ever be, but they were all very good pitchers and they were all head and shoulders better than the bottom tier HOFers. Because of the awards deGrom won I think he's more likely to make the HOF than the others in his peer group. As I said, I personally don't think he deserves it (yet), but this little exercise has made me realize that if he did get in it wouldn't really bother me very much.

    This is for you @thisistheshow - Jim Rice was actually a pretty good player.
  • JoeBanzaiJoeBanzai Posts: 11,103 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Degrom has started 30 games or more 4 times. 2020 was a short year.

    I see a dominant pitcher for 4 1/2 seasons, how you can give him credit for full seasons against guys who had 10-12 seasons of over 30 starts is beyond me.

    The comparison to Wood is hard because he was a reliever for much of his career.

    Who's next Karl Spooner? He was real good for a couple of games.

    2013,14 and 15 Certificate Award Winner Harmon Killebrew Master Set and Master Topps Set
  • dallasactuarydallasactuary Posts: 4,081 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @JoeBanzai said:
    Degrom has started 30 games or more 4 times. 2020 was a short year.

    I see a dominant pitcher for 4 1/2 seasons, how you can give him credit for full seasons against guys who had 10-12 seasons of over 30 starts is beyond me.

    In making a HOF case, I count terrible (worse than replacement) seasons as a negative, so-so seasons (better than replacement but worse than average) at pretty close to 0, good seasons (better than average) as a small plus, and great seasons as a large plus. There aren't that many pitchers with two seasons as great as deGrom's top 2 who aren't in the HOF, and unless we're going to blame deGrom for COVID, he's really got three great seasons. Throw in a handful more good seasons and he's still nowhere close to the Lefty Groves and Bob Gibsons at the top of the HOF, but he's already comfortably past the Catfish Hunters and Rube Marquards at the bottom. As I said, I see him fitting in very closely with Rick Reuschel and Wilbur Wood, both of whom have HOF cases that aren't laughable. Where I think we differ is that if deGrom were to settle in as an average pitcher and pitch for 5-6 more years, you would see that as adding significantly to his HOF case, while I would see it adding insignificantly to his HOF case. I would see those 5-6 average years as pushing deGrom over the HOF line, but that's because I see deGrom as only insignificantly below that line right now.

    This is for you @thisistheshow - Jim Rice was actually a pretty good player.
  • Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 1,838 ✭✭✭✭

    @thisistheshow said:
    Eventually things like wins for pitchers and hits for hitters will become less and less the barometers of success which they once were, and therefore we will see players inducted with career numbers that aren't your typical "back of the card" old school stats.

    They already have. well some of the voters anyways. The 300 win mark for pitchers doesnt exist anymore. As far as deGrom wins wont be the issue, the fact that hes just not on the field that much will be. He still doesnt even have 1400 innings pitched and is right about to turn 35, it would be the pitcher equivalent of putting Josh Hamilton into the HOF.

    deGrom is pretty much a minimum of 10 years away from appearing on a ballot, hes not going to retire and give up his contract money even if he cant pitch anymore and then the waiting period. By that point it will be almost all a new generation of voters that dont hold the belief someone has to be on a playoff team to be the MVP and things of that nature. For the most part though they also (nor should they) hold the belief that everything revolves around an algorithm stat and ignore what is done on the field.

    Theres just no way around the fact he hasnt even done close to enough to be HOF worthy and the fact that Texas doesnt really need him to pitch in the regular season to make the playoffs in a weak AL. That hasnt been mentioned yet for him but it doesnt really make me think hes about to rip off 6 or 7 seasons of 200 plus innings of elite or very least very good seasons that he would need or should need anyways for the HOF. Texas would obviously rather he be healthy all year, but theres no reason to have him pitch through injuries or come back in a short time frame. If hes just healthy and a stud in the playoffs every year while expensive they would be fine with it

  • JoeBanzaiJoeBanzai Posts: 11,103 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @dallasactuary said:

    @JoeBanzai said:
    Degrom has started 30 games or more 4 times. 2020 was a short year.

    I see a dominant pitcher for 4 1/2 seasons, how you can give him credit for full seasons against guys who had 10-12 seasons of over 30 starts is beyond me.

    In making a HOF case, I count terrible (worse than replacement) seasons as a negative, so-so seasons (better than replacement but worse than average) at pretty close to 0, good seasons (better than average) as a small plus, and great seasons as a large plus. There aren't that many pitchers with two seasons as great as deGrom's top 2 who aren't in the HOF, and unless we're going to blame deGrom for COVID, he's really got three great seasons. Throw in a handful more good seasons and he's still nowhere close to the Lefty Groves and Bob Gibsons at the top of the HOF, but he's already comfortably past the Catfish Hunters and Rube Marquards at the bottom. As I said, I see him fitting in very closely with Rick Reuschel and Wilbur Wood, both of whom have HOF cases that aren't laughable. Where I think we differ is that if deGrom were to settle in as an average pitcher and pitch for 5-6 more years, you would see that as adding significantly to his HOF case, while I would see it adding insignificantly to his HOF case. I would see those 5-6 average years as pushing deGrom over the HOF line, but that's because I see deGrom as only insignificantly below that line right now.

    Byron Buxton should be a first ballot lock to go in then. When he isn't hurt, he's REALLY GOOD.

    I'm sorry, I can't take this seriously enough to discuss. One minute looking at Degrom's numbers is all it should take.

    2013,14 and 15 Certificate Award Winner Harmon Killebrew Master Set and Master Topps Set
  • dallasactuarydallasactuary Posts: 4,081 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I don't understand the reference to Byron Buxton who isn't all that good even when he's healthy, so I'll let that one go.

    And I agree, if you take only one minute to look at deGrom's stats - which is what I did initially - then his HOF case will escape you. But take longer than that, and really look at everything, and you can see it. Again, that case is a hair stronger than Wilbur Wood's and a hair weaker than Rick Reuschel's, and it doesn't appear to add up to the HOF at this point. And if that's all you mean by "taking it seriously" then we don't really disagree. My point is just that a pitcher builds a HOF case over the course of a career, and what deGrom has built so far isn't as far below the HOF line as a one minute look might make you think.

    This is for you @thisistheshow - Jim Rice was actually a pretty good player.
  • JoeBanzaiJoeBanzai Posts: 11,103 ✭✭✭✭✭

    You've obviously never seen him play.........oh yeah, no one has because he is always hurt.
    Probably the best defensive center fielder since Willie Mays and his base stealing is amazing at 83 stolen and 10 caught, but the Twins are so afraid he's going to get hurt, they won't let him play in the field or steal any bases any more.
    Degrom has no more case than Buxton.
    Which is none.

    2013,14 and 15 Certificate Award Winner Harmon Killebrew Master Set and Master Topps Set
  • craig44craig44 Posts: 10,230 ✭✭✭✭✭

    At this point, he is not the pitcher Johan Santana was, and Johan was off the ballot after his first year with 2.4% votes.

    Unless a miracle happens, DeGrom will not play enough moving forward to get in.

    George Brett, Bobby Orr and Terry Bradshaw.

  • dallasactuarydallasactuary Posts: 4,081 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @JoeBanzai said:
    You've obviously never seen him play.........oh yeah, no one has because he is always hurt.
    Probably the best defensive center fielder since Willie Mays and his base stealing is amazing at 83 stolen and 10 caught, but the Twins are so afraid he's going to get hurt, they won't let him play in the field or steal any bases any more.
    Degrom has no more case than Buxton.
    Which is none.

    Buxton has played 9 years and has a Win Probability Added of 2.4; deGrom has played 10 seasons and has a WPA of 25.4. Double his plate appearances and you've got a full-time player with 4.8 WPA, leaving him just shy of Lee Lacy. Buxton is not nearly as good as you think he is, and the comparison to deGrom is just silly.

    @craig44 said:
    At this point, he is not the pitcher Johan Santana was, and Johan was off the ballot after his first year with 2.4% votes.

    Unless a miracle happens, DeGrom will not play enough moving forward to get in.

    Santana's got a very similar, and somewhat stronger, HOF case to deGrom, and he fell short,as deGrom does right now. Not that it matters how much you miss by, but I thought Santana should have gotten a lot more than 2.4%, and it wouldn't have bothered me at all if he'd gotten elected eventually. But Santana does make a good comparison and he shows just how far deGrom is away from getting voted in to the HOF by the actual voters as opposed to message board commentators.

    This is for you @thisistheshow - Jim Rice was actually a pretty good player.
  • daltexdaltex Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Basebal21 said:

    deGrom is pretty much a minimum of 10 years away from appearing on a ballot, hes not going to retire and give up his contract money even if he cant pitch anymore and then the waiting period. By that point it will be almost all a new generation of voters that dont hold the belief someone has to be on a playoff team to be the MVP and things of that nature. For the most part though they also (nor should they) hold the belief that everything revolves around an algorithm stat and ignore what is done on the field.

    You understand that it's been over 35 years since Andre Dawson won the MVP for the last place Cubs for a season that was not particularly good (13 of the other 18 players who got MVP votes had more WAR than Dawson did), right?

  • Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 1,838 ✭✭✭✭
    edited June 5, 2023 3:51PM

    @daltex said:

    @Basebal21 said:

    deGrom is pretty much a minimum of 10 years away from appearing on a ballot, hes not going to retire and give up his contract money even if he cant pitch anymore and then the waiting period. By that point it will be almost all a new generation of voters that dont hold the belief someone has to be on a playoff team to be the MVP and things of that nature. For the most part though they also (nor should they) hold the belief that everything revolves around an algorithm stat and ignore what is done on the field.

    You understand that it's been over 35 years since Andre Dawson won the MVP for the last place Cubs for a season that was not particularly good (13 of the other 18 players who got MVP votes had more WAR than Dawson did), right?

    You understand that Trout has won multiple MVPs without his team making the playoffs and deGrom won Cy Youngs with a record of 10-9 and 11-8 on two Mets teams that didnt make the playoffs and both even did so on teams with a losing record right?

  • Steven59Steven59 Posts: 8,149 ✭✭✭✭✭

    And here he goes again........................as of today:

    "Jacob deGrom injury update: Rangers ace to get second Tommy John surgery, latest blow for oft-injured pitcher
    deGrom will now miss the rest of the 2023 season and at least part of 2024"

  • Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 1,838 ✭✭✭✭

    @Steven59 said:
    And here he goes again........................as of today:

    "Jacob deGrom injury update: Rangers ace to get second Tommy John surgery, latest blow for oft-injured pitcher
    deGrom will now miss the rest of the 2023 season and at least part of 2024"

    More than just part. He'll be 35 when the surgery occurs and its already June. He will miss most if not all of next season and wont be back onto the MLB mound until hes 36 if ever. He'll certainly get the best care, the best substances etc given Texas investment in him and apparently their wild decision not to insure his contract.

    Its unfortunate, but this pretty much seals the deal that a guy with no HOF case at all will be able to do enough to make one.

  • craig44craig44 Posts: 10,230 ✭✭✭✭✭

    the skinny pitchers just dont seem to hold up well. the Unit is an exception, but as a rule...

    George Brett, Bobby Orr and Terry Bradshaw.

  • Steven59Steven59 Posts: 8,149 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 6, 2023 4:17PM

    @craig44 said:
    the skinny pitchers just dont seem to hold up well. the Unit is an exception, but as a rule...

    Triston Mckenzie from the Guardians...... AKA "Dr Sticks" - 6'5" 175lbs on a good day. He just came back from a few months off from some kind of strained muscle ............. He's amazing to watch pitch.

  • grote15grote15 Posts: 29,435 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @craig44 said:
    the skinny pitchers just dont seem to hold up well. the Unit is an exception, but as a rule...

    Pedro was pretty skinny and dominant.



    Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
  • daltexdaltex Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Basebal21 said:

    @daltex said:

    @Basebal21 said:

    deGrom is pretty much a minimum of 10 years away from appearing on a ballot, hes not going to retire and give up his contract money even if he cant pitch anymore and then the waiting period. By that point it will be almost all a new generation of voters that dont hold the belief someone has to be on a playoff team to be the MVP and things of that nature. For the most part though they also (nor should they) hold the belief that everything revolves around an algorithm stat and ignore what is done on the field.

    You understand that it's been over 35 years since Andre Dawson won the MVP for the last place Cubs for a season that was not particularly good (13 of the other 18 players who got MVP votes had more WAR than Dawson did), right?

    You understand that Trout has won multiple MVPs without his team making the playoffs and deGrom won Cy Youngs with a record of 10-9 and 11-8 on two Mets teams that didnt make the playoffs and both even did so on teams with a losing record right?

    My point was that that ship sailed at least 35 years ago when they voted for Dawson. That we hardly need a new generation of voters to vote for players not on a playoff team. Besides, Trout was far better than Dawson, and Dawson was far better from 1980-83 than he was in 1987.

  • craig44craig44 Posts: 10,230 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @grote15 said:

    @craig44 said:
    the skinny pitchers just dont seem to hold up well. the Unit is an exception, but as a rule...

    Pedro was pretty skinny and dominant.

    Pedro is a perfect example. I watched almost every start he made for the Sox, when he was at his best. I loved him. However, he was constantly on a pitch count and there were often little nagging-type injuries. He was washed after age 33.

    George Brett, Bobby Orr and Terry Bradshaw.

  • craig44craig44 Posts: 10,230 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Steven59 said:

    @craig44 said:
    the skinny pitchers just dont seem to hold up well. the Unit is an exception, but as a rule...

    Triston Mckenzie from the Guardians...... AKA "Dr Sticks" - 6'5" 175lbs on a good day. He just came back from a few months off from some kind of strained muscle ............. He's amazing to watch pitch.

    That is the exact body type that will not hold up historically.

    George Brett, Bobby Orr and Terry Bradshaw.

  • Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 1,838 ✭✭✭✭

    @craig44 said:

    @Steven59 said:

    @craig44 said:
    the skinny pitchers just dont seem to hold up well. the Unit is an exception, but as a rule...

    Triston Mckenzie from the Guardians...... AKA "Dr Sticks" - 6'5" 175lbs on a good day. He just came back from a few months off from some kind of strained muscle ............. He's amazing to watch pitch.

    That is the exact body type that will not hold up historically.

    Not to mention Cleveland will probably just run him into the ground before trading him knowing they have no intention of keeping him when he would be expensive just like theyve done with every other starter

  • Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 1,838 ✭✭✭✭

    @daltex said:

    @Basebal21 said:

    @daltex said:

    @Basebal21 said:

    deGrom is pretty much a minimum of 10 years away from appearing on a ballot, hes not going to retire and give up his contract money even if he cant pitch anymore and then the waiting period. By that point it will be almost all a new generation of voters that dont hold the belief someone has to be on a playoff team to be the MVP and things of that nature. For the most part though they also (nor should they) hold the belief that everything revolves around an algorithm stat and ignore what is done on the field.

    You understand that it's been over 35 years since Andre Dawson won the MVP for the last place Cubs for a season that was not particularly good (13 of the other 18 players who got MVP votes had more WAR than Dawson did), right?

    You understand that Trout has won multiple MVPs without his team making the playoffs and deGrom won Cy Youngs with a record of 10-9 and 11-8 on two Mets teams that didnt make the playoffs and both even did so on teams with a losing record right?

    My point was that that ship sailed at least 35 years ago when they voted for Dawson. That we hardly need a new generation of voters to vote for players not on a playoff team. Besides, Trout was far better than Dawson, and Dawson was far better from 1980-83 than he was in 1987.

    Thats the exception though. Arod got robbed of two MVPs in 2001 and 2002, Adrian Gonzalez didnt even finish top 10 in MVP in 2008 and 2009 which was just an absolute joke. Writers cited their bad teams as why and there still are many of the old school writers that voted then that still vote today. We will never get rid of that entirely and there will always be guys that also vote based on whose nice to them and whose not, but the younger writers and newer voters have shown the trend of just looking at numbers and performance without the they cant win because the team wasnt good enough

  • Steven59Steven59 Posts: 8,149 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Basebal21 said:
    Not to mention Cleveland will probably just run him into the ground before trading him knowing they have no intention of keeping him when he would be expensive just like theyve done with every other starter

    Yep, and not just starters, but Cy Young winners, Although Kluber fell apart after they traded him. Now the Guardians are already looking to trade Bieber. And in my opinion he is just a slightly above average pitcher.

  • Steven59Steven59 Posts: 8,149 ✭✭✭✭✭

  • SDSportsFanSDSportsFan Posts: 5,074 ✭✭✭✭✭

    He still needs to buy a ticket.

    Steve

  • Steven59Steven59 Posts: 8,149 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @craig44 said:

    @Steven59 said:

    @craig44 said:
    the skinny pitchers just dont seem to hold up well. the Unit is an exception, but as a rule...

    Triston Mckenzie from the Guardians...... AKA "Dr Sticks" - 6'5" 175lbs on a good day. He just came back from a few months off from some kind of strained muscle ............. He's amazing to watch pitch.

    That is the exact body type that will not hold up historically.

    Well here ya go.........Good call!

    "8:44pm: As noted by Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com, manager Terry Francona told reporters that an MRI revealed that McKenzie was suffering from inflammation in his right elbow, with Francona noting that the inflammation “means the UCL is involved.” It’s obviously less than ideal news for McKenzie, as UCL issues can often require Tommy John surgery, though it’s certainly possible that this issue won’t rise to that level. Per Francona, McKenzie will head back to Cleveland to be examined by team staff before the club determines next steps."

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