Now that CAC is slowly phasing out the CAC sticker…
cameonut2011
Posts: 10,169 ✭✭✭✭✭
What will become of so called “sticker rarities” or more accurately PCGS/CAC sticker rarities? By sticker rarity, I’m meaning issues with few coins of the grade level at CAC and the underlying service? What effect will registry sets (especially the popularity of the PCGS Registry) have?
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I suppose I just see this whole thing differently... I doubt that it is being phased out but just being reigned in to serve its initial and more importantly INTENDED PURPOSE, I doubt that there was ever an intent for common coins with a value of under $500 to be part of their program. How many common and for the most part uninspiring common coins need to be seen by them? We all know there is a large supply of 1879-s through 1882-s Morgans that exist in 65 and higher and most look terrific. That is the story of the quality from the SF mint at that point in time. And there are other examples from other series,
I suspect they are tired of that market and want to focus on what matters. The sticker- more likely than not- will simply be reserved for those coins that really warrant the service, And it makes sense for everyone. Think about it.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
It will depend on the individual collector or dealer and the desire of those individuals. There have been several collectors here that have stated maxing out the grade and/or value is far more important to them than preserving the sticker. So my guess is that going forward many of the low CAC pop beaned coins will be crossed into CAC holders, or sent in to PCGS or NGC in an attempt to get that grade bump. This will also depend on how the market accepts the new CACG and how popular the CACG registry becomes.
And there will be collectors that prefer to have their coins not be maxed out, over time those coins will be the next regency or NGC black holder and have the potential to sell for significant premiums when sold.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
I understand your point. But the smaller based collectors of under $500 coins make up the bulk of the coin market. They deserve to have their coins stickered as well as the wealthier collectors. The whole point of the new pricing is to get collectors and investors to submit primarily to the new CACG, not the sticker service. But it is pompous of you to think CAC should only serve the wealthier collectors.
A lot of people say this but there is no reason for this to be the case. CAC should (according to me) be agnostic and set their pricing so that either service generates the same amount of profit and let the industry decide which service they want to use.
http://ProofCollection.Net
The optimist in me says that "sticker rarities" will be irrelevant, since people will start collecting coins again.
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars • Variety Attribution
I wasn't aware beans were being phased out. IIRC they said, '10 yrs'.
They could also extend it.
Speculating 10 yrs down the road seems like a waste of brain cells.
It is not about wealth as much as it is about common sense... There are too may common coins that simply are not economical to submit to CAC.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
While that’s true, quite a few coins are submitted for other reasons, such as trying to test (and/or improve) grading skills or improve liquidity.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I've got a few boxes of slabs. Never sent any in to the sticker factory. Always too late to the party.
JA has posted he signed a 10 year contract with the sticker company. Of course, as demand falls this could be moved up by mutual agreement of the parties. There is no guarantee stickering will continue for 10 years.
I suspect a quicker demise. CACG will not gain as much footing with the sticker still in existence. Many will want both PCGS and CAC blessing, especially the big registry players who have a lot of money tied up in PCGS plastic. It will be interesting to see to say the least.
@Gazes @winesteven @tradedollarnut
Does he though? What I read and heard was that he has a 10 yr contract to go to Virginia Beach 1 week a month. The stickering operation was to stay in New Jersey. I could see it eventually moving to Virginia but I've not read that.
From my perspective, I am in no hurry to cross any of my stickered PCGS or NGC into the new CACG holders only because I have no foreseeable plans of selling. From what I understand their registry will accept currently stickered coins. I will watch from the sidelines with regard to the crossover-mania which is sure to be interesting. I will also likely pursue the new CACG market if I find something suitable as well as continue to also look for already stickered PCGS/NGC coins that fit my collection. If CACG does well then I may have financial incentive later on to re-holder if and when I decide to part with any or all of the collection and if they don't then I have not lost anything.
JA is not the only person who can bless a coin with a sticker.
http://ProofCollection.Net
Not a concern for me. They haven’t even rolled out their TPG coins yet.
Just like you have the ogh holder fans there may be some people on that area mentioned.
For many of the issues mentioned above, only time will tell. Here are some of my random thoughts:
There’s plenty of room for all of the TPG’s. Collectors and dealers will now have an additional option.
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
Ultimately, the coins inside the holder will determine value. The best coins eventually tend to end up in the slab/sticker combination that the market fancies at the moment.
The best coins were selling for premium prices long before slabs and stickers.
So, to answer your question, the "memory" of the market will continue to favor the PCGS/CAC combo and will also remember grading rarities.
If a market crash coming as many believe what then?
JA himself said the time would come that stickering would stop, so this prediction isn’t worth much. The KEY, is when? I’m not smart enough to even venture a guess, but I’d be shocked if it was sooner than later.
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
It’s the coin and the holder together that will determine what one is willing to pay. Not just the coin anymore…
I don’t know how much holders are influencing the market prices but I notice in auctions the prettiest eye appealing coins bring higher prices regardless of the holder, although a PCGS holder will add more usually to the final price
It wb interesting in months ahead.
CAC grading would go belly up before NGC or PCGS. Divert their resources back to the stickering company.
Yes, he does. But. Of course. They could renegotiate at any time.
Didn't you just argue both sides: the holder doesn't matter but a PCGS holder adds value???
Except it is unclear that anyone cares if someone other than JA does so. We have zero data.
Not exactly. I am saying the holder doesn’t make that much difference if the coin is very high end with eye appeal.
So a PCGS holder will NOT add more to the final price?
I think the market disagrees. And while the occasional "prettiest eye appealing coins" will bring strong bids, have you ever tried to sell one raw?
In today's market.... TPG's matter, stickers matter - to the majority of collectors, though not all. In the future - well, that remains to be seen.... but given the success record that JA has compiled, I would not rule out a significant market impact of CACG.... Fun times ahead. Cheers, RickO
Will the gold stickered coins automatically be put in the next grade up holders? What happens on the few coins they don't want to put in the new holders automatically? Will submitters be getting calls, "sorry fellah, no dice on that coin guy, we changed our minds on endorsing the grade so can't put it in our holder"? Or how many high end coins are going back to them under their warranties? Is Coinplex still up an running with active bids on their stickered coins?
My understanding is that a gold stickered coin will indeed cross at least at the next higher whole grade number, EXCEPT if it was a color designation, such as RD on a copper coin, or other similar situation where the coin may have changed in the holder since originally graded.
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
It seems silly to phase out the stickering service when there is great demand for it. When JA and his NJ crew get tired of doing it, they could move the stickering operations to Virginia and charge the same price for stickering or grading/slabbing and let consumers choose what service they want. There are a lot of PCGS/CAC collectors that when stickering stops will be faced with a choice between PCGS no sticker and CACG are going to choose PCGS (I know I am one of them). Why give up all of that business?
Although you can do what I do, and that is buy coins that are already stickered.
But separately, as I indicated above, my sense is the closing of CAC stickering will likely be more later than sooner.
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
Except they don't make any money on stickering.
I assume they could if they raised the price to be equal to the slabbing fee.
Explain please.
If they can't make any money putting a sticker on a slab, how are they going to make money putting coins in slabs? Massively higher prices? Stickering doesn't have the overhead of inventory, machines, encapsulation, guarantees, and maintaining registries and can be done with much less staff.
http://ProofCollection.Net
They started the stickering service to allow them to make market in CAC coins. They make their money on the retail side. Google it. JA has said many times that they are just trying to break even on the stickers.
It's been discussed numerous times by JA and CAC as well a several threads in this forum if you want to do the research.
Consider that they offer free review of coins. How profitable do you think that is? CACG has no freebies and they can switch to making market in CACG coins rather than stickered coins.
Please understand that what I am writing is based at least partially on conjecture given what I understand about CAC's business model and what I interpret about its model.
CAC has long claimed that they don't make money on the sticker process and I'd imagine that their historically low prices for the evaluation of most coins (beginning at $10 per coin and then going up to $13.50 per coin a few years later and, finally $16 per coin most recently) in combination with their extraordinarily generous policy of not charging collector clients for coins that fail the evaluation meant that on a per coin basis they weren't seeing much money. Those incoming funds (charged submissions for collector coins that pass evaluation and all coins submitted by dealers) still had to pay for the physical location, overhead insurance, graders, staff, publicity, web development, taxes and other fees and equipment.
I don't know what any of those expenses actually cost and don't know what amount of funds CAC took in, but they gave away quite a bit of expertise and under-charged for a fair bit more. I'd imagine that the sticker review process allowed them a sight-seen opportunity on coins that they would later place a bid on in dealer networks and that this would be where they determined to make their money. Again, this is conjecture on my part. I don't know if the encapsulation service will be a success and don't know if it is a good gamble on the part of CAC, but I guess we will all find out.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
Per latest update, the reviews are no longer free. I saw someone post a 40% CAC approval rate (seems high to me), but if that's the case, and they were break-even before, even with a 25% discount for not-CACs, stickering becomes immensely profitable.
Those fees are only for the lowest tier. But assuming the 40% pass rate is accurate, at $16 for the lowest tier that equates to $6.40/coin reviewed. Considering PCGS charges $17 at it's lowest rate and does a lot more for that money, that pricing is in line with our host for what I imagine the extra effort and cost of slabbing and guaranteeing a coin vs blessing with a sticker.
http://ProofCollection.Net
My sense is the $16 fee will be raised, and POSSIBLY the $35 tier fee as well. we should all know shortly.
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
Instead of just making up your own numbers, you could see what CAC themselves have already reported. They have never even tried to make money on stickering.
You seem to prefer to just try to validate your own preconceptions.
Obviously, if it were so profitable as you seem to think, they wouldn't be sunsetting it.
It is not obvious that their decision to sunset is tied in any way to potential profitability since, as you've stated, they never tried to maximize stickering profit and have intentionally been leaving money on the table for years for the benefit of collectors.
I'm not suggesting that the converse is true.
But with the latest update now they are clearly turning it into a profit center.
You could point me to correct numbers or correct them if I am wrong. Without official sources we can only speculate which is why I try to post my numbers and how I came up with them. I'm looking to be corrected if/when I am wrong or off-base.
I welcome any more accurate information that you may have or can point me to.
I think the market will determine that. I can't see a business terminating a service that is in demand if it is profitable, although it does happen.
http://ProofCollection.Net
What retail outlet / dealership are they? Do they have a website, show retail circuit or is this a group of insiders / various venues? So the sticker biz sets up the retail side. Sort of like the run (non stickered pickups) setting up the pass (stickered retail inventory) in the West Coast offense (my college FB coach game). Then retail based on CDN CPG for CAC (like player archetypes for the FB West Cost Offense) - Cool. If u play College FB Coach it’s a great offense. Won a lot of Natl Championships with it. Now I see why a lot of them want the sticker submissions continuing.
I for one hope they discontinue stickering. While a fan of the premise, one of the major unintended consequences was any coin without a sticker was guilty until proven innocent of being a C coin. Many quality coins had their values suppressed due to this effect for collectors without the access or desire to play that game.
In a world without stickers, I can see that fading away.
11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set
I don’t worry about that - the CAC pop on eBay just slightly over 1pct (1.37 pct) when factoring in and summing PCGS, NGC, PMG pop. Furthermore any CAC coin I have I have to sell it higher to make it work for me. For me many of my clients they would rather pick out a nice non stickered coin (less money). Furthermore CAC only covers US Classic material.
To everyone that has turned these plastic slabs with "stickers" into a religion, caveat emptor.
I would rather join with an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by sheep.
It was profitable for them if they were able to buy the high end coins they stickered; such as a $4K $20 Lib. I sent them and after applying the sticker they offered to buy it from me at 10% behind GS. Also had a PCGS MS67 Morgan somewhat better date they were not interested in. They know how strong those can sell for and don't leave a lot of money on the table someone else can get. PCGS/CLCT got bought out by a hedge fund; NGC got bought out. What do you suppose cac will be worth when fully capitalized?