I once watched a dealer friend price a completed Washington Quarter set album - typical circulated accumulation with the later (clad) proofs. (I forget which album, maybe Whittman).
He priced the 1932D and 1932S separately
The remaining silver at the buy x face
The clad proofs at like $2 or $3 each
He offered the seller $325 and put it in his case marked $350 - which he was thrilled to sell it for later that afternoon.
$25 for being the agent of liquidity
Those are the kinds of margins bread & butter dealers are working on at a local show with $150 tables.
Multiply everything 10x for the big national shows...
-----Burton ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
A lot of the long time experts, dealers, and analysts are ignoring a rapidly growing and evolving numismatic market: Younger Numismatists (not necessarily YN's) aka "new blood". Specifically those who buy/sell on social media.
@jerseyben said:
A lot of the long time experts, dealers, and analysts are ignoring a rapidly growing and evolving numismatic market: Younger Numismatists (not necessarily YN's) aka "new blood". Specifically those who buy/sell on social media.
I agree and am hopeful that this cohort will bode well for the future of the hobby. The question, though, is how big a movement is this to be meaningful in the overall coin market? Is the social media realm comprised of 50 YN dealers and, while they are important, is it enough to for which to pay attention?
Seated Half Society member #38 "Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
You don’t go bargain hunting at big shows you go to buy exceptional coins you can see in hand and accept the insane prices. Pretty much why I quit going except to sell.
I’ve had several dealers say they are having a hard time finding enough coins. Supply and demand.
I've been reading that for years. Same thing with this labor shortage thing in various jobs.
How would those dealers inventory look if they paid an extra 5% to what they have been offering ? How about 10% ?
If they pay more but can GET MORE from the new, larger, full-of-cash public/retail buyers....problem solved, no ?
Theoretically, yes. I notice that some of the dealers with the steady stream of nice inventory are consistently priced on the high side. That leads me to believe they simply pay more on the front end, whether it’s for the actual coins or for advertising and marketing costs.
It comes down to risk tolerance. Some dealers are not afraid to bid strong at auction for the nicest coins, and list the coin right on their website with a healthy margin. Most of these dealers know their market very well, and they have the clientele to support this model and turnover inventory quickly. Other dealers approach the market with trepidation, and don’t want to be holding the bag if and when the music stops.
I can't afford big ticket items like Saints, but I have noticed the same trend in almost every other segment as well. MS V nickels have appreciated in value by about 40%-50% in the past 3 or 4 years. I also collect National notes, and have noticed the same with them. Many Nationals that I paid $200-$250 for just 4 or 5 years ago are now selling for $400-$500.
Best regards, Dwayne F. Sessom Ebay ID: V-Nickel-Coins
@JimTyler said:
You don’t go bargain hunting at big shows you go to buy exceptional coins you can see in hand and accept the insane prices. Pretty much why I quit going except to sell.
I get that with online buying one doesn't have to waste as much time going to LCS's and coin shows to find a unique coin.
But I still see good prices on lots of coins at LCS and coin shows. And I still see some stuff ridiculously priced online.
@DeplorableDan said:
Theoretically, yes. I notice that some of the dealers with the steady stream of nice inventory are consistently priced on the high side. That leads me to believe they simply pay more on the front end, whether it’s for the actual coins or for advertising and marketing costs.
It comes down to risk tolerance. Some dealers are not afraid to bid strong at auction for the nicest coins, and list the coin right on their website with a healthy margin. Most of these dealers know their market very well, and they have the clientele to support this model and turnover inventory quickly. Other dealers approach the market with trepidation, and don’t want to be holding the bag if and when the music stops.
We're on the same side, DD.
I don't mind paying up online at HA or GC or at a small, regional, or national coin show for a REALLY NICE coin. For me, that means maybe 5% more, no more than 10%. In the financial markets, we say paying more than a 10% premium for certain assets ($1.10 for $1 of net asset value) is the most you should pay. I apply that same guideline to coins.
We have to remember that decades ago you could spend weeks or months or YEARS looking for the right coin, even with thousands available, simply because it wasn't at your LCS or a local coin show or was for sale at places not where you lived. The time spent...the wear and tear of travel and miles on your car....it all added to the hidden costs of all our coins. Today, virtually every coin is right at your keyboard fingertips.
When I got my 1923-D Saint, I paid a bit more at FUN 2020 but I didn't mind because it was my 1st time at FUN...it was a coin I had saved up $$$ and researched and waited for for about 5 years....and because I knew I'd probably be keeping it for the rest of my life. So on a $3,000 or so coin, why worry about paying an extra $150-$200 above where the recent sales were ?
I didn't and I have a coin I really like with no regrets on it or the price paid.
I’ve had several dealers say they are having a hard time finding enough coins. Supply and demand.
I've been reading that for years. Same thing with this labor shortage thing in various jobs.
How would those dealers inventory look if they paid an extra 5% to what they have been offering ? How about 10% ?
If they pay more but can GET MORE from the new, larger, full-of-cash public/retail buyers....problem solved, no ?
Gee, I bet they never thought of that. Pay more and charge more!
It's not that simple. There's only so much you can sell a coin for - no matter what you paid for it.
I agree if you are talking a quantum leap in price. But would demand for a Morgan or Saint collapse if the premium to the underlying bullion for a quasi-numismatic coin rose a little but wasn't really be out of line ? I'm not talking 1989-90 Bubble Pricing, just $100-$150 or so on a $2,300 Saint (to use an example of a fairly liquid coin and one I am familiar with).
I get the buyers strike and anger on the premiums for ASEs because those have always traded at a normal premium to the underlying price of silver and today you are being asked to pay an extra 20-30%. That's BIG. I'm not saying that without any move upward in the gold price that Saint pricing should spike out of nowhere as it has done in the past. But I don't think that a 5-10% rise in price would be a deal-breaker for the savvy buyer who has thought it through.
Because think about this: Forget the numismatic or dealer premium on a coin like a Saint. What happens if the price of gold moves to $3,000 in the next few years as is very possible (it's also very possible it doesn't happen but bear with me ). If that happens, that same generic common Saint in MS-65 condition that a buyer would gladly pay $2,200 for and a dealer wants $2,400 for will suddenly be costing $3,500 in all likelihood.
Ironically, premiums are HIGHEST when prices are lowest. If a buyer let that deter them -- if they wanted to wait for the premiums to evaporate -- they probably missed out in the past and will miss out again. Think back to 2000-02 when you could get that same Gem Mint Saint for $750 - $1,000 (and gold was averaging about $350/oz.).
How many of us have rued not pouncing on those bargains (even though if you went by the premium to gold they looked super-expensive) ?
I’ve had several dealers say they are having a hard time finding enough coins. Supply and demand.
I've been reading that for years. Same thing with this labor shortage thing in various jobs.
How would those dealers inventory look if they paid an extra 5% to what they have been offering ? How about 10% ?
If they pay more but can GET MORE from the new, larger, full-of-cash public/retail buyers....problem solved, no ?
Gee, I bet they never thought of that. Pay more and charge more!
It's not that simple. There's only so much you can sell a coin for - no matter what you paid for it.
I agree if you are talking a quantum leap in price. But would demand for a Morgan or Saint collapse if the premium to the underlying bullion for a quasi-numismatic coin rose a little but wasn't really be out of line ? I'm not talking 1989-90 Bubble Pricing, just $100-$150 or so on a $2,300 Saint (to use an example of a fairly liquid coin and one I am familiar with).
I get the buyers strike and anger on the premiums for ASEs because those have always traded at a normal premium to the underlying price of silver and today you are being asked to pay an extra 20-30%. That's BIG. I'm not saying that without any move upward in the gold price that Saint pricing should spike out of nowhere as it has done in the past. But I don't think that would be a deal-breaker for the savvy buyer who has thought it through.
Because think about this. Forget the numismatic or dealer premium on a coin like a Saint. What happens if the price of gold moves to $3,000 in the next few years as is very possible (it's also very possible it doesn't happen but bear with me ). If that happens, that same generic common Saint in MS-65 condition that a buyer would gladly pay $2,200 for and a dealer wants $2,400 for will suddenly be costing $3,500 in all likelihood.
Ironically, premiums are HIGHEST when prices are lowest. If a buyer let that deter them -- if they wanted to wait for the premiums to evaporate -- they probably missed out. Think back to 2000-02 when you could get that same Gem Mint Saint for $750 - $1,000 (and gold was averaging about $350/oz.).
Demand wouldn't "collapse", but it drops even for less than $100 or $150. The pricing is not as elastic as you seem to think. Will someone pay an $100 over "guide" for a $2000 coin they really really want, probably. But most transactions of common date, common grade material don't fall into the "really, really want" category. Just look around this forum at the number of people who try to transact off eBay from a seller to save 5 to 10%, who F&F on BST to save 3.5%. Demand will DROP if you increase prices. No one cares what you paid for it. They only care what they have to pay...and they will pay as little as possible. [Not that there's anything wrong with that.]
And good luck convincing someone to buy a coin because they will be okay if/when gold hits $3000. They want to pocket the difference between $2000 and $3000, not hope for $2500 just to break even.
@dsessom said:
I can't afford big ticket items like Saints, but I have noticed the same trend in almost every other segment as well. MS V nickels have appreciated in value by about 40%-50% in the past 3 or 4 years. I also collect National notes, and have noticed the same with them. Many Nationals that I paid $200-$250 for just 4 or 5 years ago are now selling for $400-$500.
@dsessom said:
I can't afford big ticket items like Saints, but I have noticed the same trend in almost every other segment as well. MS V nickels have appreciated in value by about 40%-50% in the past 3 or 4 years. I also collect National notes, and have noticed the same with them. Many Nationals that I paid $200-$250 for just 4 or 5 years ago are now selling for $400-$500.
There's a reason for that which is separate from traditional supply/demand factors affecting coins and our hobby. During the pandemic, with people having more disposable income and plenty of time, many newcomers came to our hobby. The stuff they bought was usually in the $50 - $1,000 range. They would buy medium-grades of coins and currency, driving the price up and moving the more pristine merchandise up, too. Usually, the latter moves the former.
We have seen that same phenomenon in houses. With interest rates spiking and home prices in the middle-to-upper end soaring from 2018-2022, lower-end homes lagged. But now with the cost of the high-end homes higher via pricing and also mortgage rates, people are flocking to lower-priced homes, condos, co-ops, and town houses. The $600,000 home they got outbid by $40,000 on is no longer affordable -- but they can buy a $300,000 2-BR condo no problem, even with higher rates.
@DeplorableDan said:
Theoretically, yes. I notice that some of the dealers with the steady stream of nice inventory are consistently priced on the high side. That leads me to believe they simply pay more on the front end, whether it’s for the actual coins or for advertising and marketing costs.
It comes down to risk tolerance. Some dealers are not afraid to bid strong at auction for the nicest coins, and list the coin right on their website with a healthy margin. Most of these dealers know their market very well, and they have the clientele to support this model and turnover inventory quickly. Other dealers approach the market with trepidation, and don’t want to be holding the bag if and when the music stops.
We're on the same side, DD.
I don't mind paying up online at HA or GC or at a small, regional, or national coin show for a REALLY NICE coin. For me, that means maybe 5% more, no more than 10%. In the financial markets, we say paying more than a 10% premium for certain assets ($1.10 for $1 of net asset value) is the most you should pay. I apply that same guideline to coins.
We have to remember that decades ago you could spend weeks or months or YEARS looking for the right coin, even with thousands available, simply because it wasn't at your LCS or a local coin show or was for sale at places not where you lived. The time spent...the wear and tear of travel and miles on your car....it all added to the hidden costs of all our coins. Today, virtually every coin is right at your keyboard fingertips.
When I got my 1923-D Saint, I paid a bit more at FUN 2020 but I didn't mind because it was my 1st time at FUN...it was a coin I had saved up $$$ and researched and waited for for about 5 years....and because I knew I'd probably be keeping it for the rest of my life. So on a $3,000 or so coin, why worry about paying an extra $150-$200 above where the recent sales were ?
I didn't and I have a coin I really like with no regrets on it or the price paid.
Your strategy very closely mirrors my own for the majority of my purchases, and that’s what helps me rationalize spending the amount of money that I do. I think the coins worth about 4600 but I have to pay 5k? Big deal, the extra few hundred bucks is the cost of enjoyment. Now if I saw a truly special coin that I know is going to be a lifer in my collection and it rarely comes to market that nice? It’s harder to put a price on those, and I may have to stretch beyond what I initially thought. You have to be willing to set the record if you really like the coin, and not everyone is comfortable doing that.
I’ve had trouble even finding coins I want to buy lately. I would have thought that this market would have swayed more collectors to part with their coins but Im starting to realize a lot of the great coins are in really strong hands. Patience is key, I’ve been looking for the perfect saint in 66 for a couple years now, but I’ve been extremely picky about it and I’m enjoying the hunt.
@jmlanzaf said:
Just look around this forum at the number of people who try to transact off eBay from a seller to save 5 to 10%, who F&F on BST to save 3.5%.
Ain't that the truth? With the constant concern expressed on the forum here about "greedy dealers", you wouldn't expect to see so many people trying to squeeze out an extra 3.5% on a deal when they're selling, would you?
@jmlanzaf said:
Just look around this forum at the number of people who try to transact off eBay from a seller to save 5 to 10%, who F&F on BST to save 3.5%.
Ain't that the truth? With the constant concern expressed on the forum here about "greedy dealers", you wouldn't expect to see so many people trying to squeeze out an extra 3.5% on a deal when they're selling, would you?
There are many wealthy players attending Long Beach. It’s like the Rose Bowl of Coin Shows. This is a show where well off people will pay the money. Dealers know this. Many well stocked and in the drivers seat. For a multi millionaire interested in slabbed $20 Double Eagles paying a little more like buying gourmet burger (vs the average man). Especially if they stacking these just for fun or in anticipation of market upswing.
How much above CPG the dealers asking. Did you make counter offer? Sometimes dealers will pad material in anticipation of wealthy players in room. But have fallback number if counter offer. This especially true if regular customer who always wants x pct discount. It’s all fun and games. Sorta like a pass on 1st down. Everybody knows wealthy players want the best and will pay up. And with CAC identifying the best…….no free ride expect to pay the money.
Comments
I once watched a dealer friend price a completed Washington Quarter set album - typical circulated accumulation with the later (clad) proofs. (I forget which album, maybe Whittman).
He offered the seller $325 and put it in his case marked $350 - which he was thrilled to sell it for later that afternoon.
$25 for being the agent of liquidity
Those are the kinds of margins bread & butter dealers are working on at a local show with $150 tables.
Multiply everything 10x for the big national shows...
ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
A lot of the long time experts, dealers, and analysts are ignoring a rapidly growing and evolving numismatic market: Younger Numismatists (not necessarily YN's) aka "new blood". Specifically those who buy/sell on social media.
I agree and am hopeful that this cohort will bode well for the future of the hobby. The question, though, is how big a movement is this to be meaningful in the overall coin market? Is the social media realm comprised of 50 YN dealers and, while they are important, is it enough to for which to pay attention?
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
I've been reading that for years. Same thing with this labor shortage thing in various jobs.
How would those dealers inventory look if they paid an extra 5% to what they have been offering ? How about 10% ?
If they pay more but can GET MORE from the new, larger, full-of-cash public/retail buyers....problem solved, no ?
You don’t go bargain hunting at big shows you go to buy exceptional coins you can see in hand and accept the insane prices. Pretty much why I quit going except to sell.
Theoretically, yes. I notice that some of the dealers with the steady stream of nice inventory are consistently priced on the high side. That leads me to believe they simply pay more on the front end, whether it’s for the actual coins or for advertising and marketing costs.
It comes down to risk tolerance. Some dealers are not afraid to bid strong at auction for the nicest coins, and list the coin right on their website with a healthy margin. Most of these dealers know their market very well, and they have the clientele to support this model and turnover inventory quickly. Other dealers approach the market with trepidation, and don’t want to be holding the bag if and when the music stops.
Founder- Peak Rarities
Website
Instagram
Facebook
Gee, I bet they never thought of that. Pay more and charge more!
It's not that simple. There's only so much you can sell a coin for - no matter what you paid for it.
I can't afford big ticket items like Saints, but I have noticed the same trend in almost every other segment as well. MS V nickels have appreciated in value by about 40%-50% in the past 3 or 4 years. I also collect National notes, and have noticed the same with them. Many Nationals that I paid $200-$250 for just 4 or 5 years ago are now selling for $400-$500.
Dwayne F. Sessom
Ebay ID: V-Nickel-Coins
I get that with online buying one doesn't have to waste as much time going to LCS's and coin shows to find a unique coin.
But I still see good prices on lots of coins at LCS and coin shows. And I still see some stuff ridiculously priced online.
We're on the same side, DD.
I don't mind paying up online at HA or GC or at a small, regional, or national coin show for a REALLY NICE coin. For me, that means maybe 5% more, no more than 10%. In the financial markets, we say paying more than a 10% premium for certain assets ($1.10 for $1 of net asset value) is the most you should pay. I apply that same guideline to coins.
We have to remember that decades ago you could spend weeks or months or YEARS looking for the right coin, even with thousands available, simply because it wasn't at your LCS or a local coin show or was for sale at places not where you lived. The time spent...the wear and tear of travel and miles on your car....it all added to the hidden costs of all our coins. Today, virtually every coin is right at your keyboard fingertips.
When I got my 1923-D Saint, I paid a bit more at FUN 2020 but I didn't mind because it was my 1st time at FUN...it was a coin I had saved up $$$ and researched and waited for for about 5 years....and because I knew I'd probably be keeping it for the rest of my life. So on a $3,000 or so coin, why worry about paying an extra $150-$200 above where the recent sales were ?
I didn't and I have a coin I really like with no regrets on it or the price paid.
I agree if you are talking a quantum leap in price. But would demand for a Morgan or Saint collapse if the premium to the underlying bullion for a quasi-numismatic coin rose a little but wasn't really be out of line ? I'm not talking 1989-90 Bubble Pricing, just $100-$150 or so on a $2,300 Saint (to use an example of a fairly liquid coin and one I am familiar with).
I get the buyers strike and anger on the premiums for ASEs because those have always traded at a normal premium to the underlying price of silver and today you are being asked to pay an extra 20-30%. That's BIG. I'm not saying that without any move upward in the gold price that Saint pricing should spike out of nowhere as it has done in the past. But I don't think that a 5-10% rise in price would be a deal-breaker for the savvy buyer who has thought it through.
Because think about this: Forget the numismatic or dealer premium on a coin like a Saint. What happens if the price of gold moves to $3,000 in the next few years as is very possible (it's also very possible it doesn't happen but bear with me
). If that happens, that same generic common Saint in MS-65 condition that a buyer would gladly pay $2,200 for and a dealer wants $2,400 for will suddenly be costing $3,500 in all likelihood. 
Ironically, premiums are HIGHEST when prices are lowest. If a buyer let that deter them -- if they wanted to wait for the premiums to evaporate -- they probably missed out in the past and will miss out again. Think back to 2000-02 when you could get that same Gem Mint Saint for $750 - $1,000 (and gold was averaging about $350/oz.).
How many of us have rued not pouncing on those bargains (even though if you went by the premium to gold they looked super-expensive) ?
Demand wouldn't "collapse", but it drops even for less than $100 or $150. The pricing is not as elastic as you seem to think. Will someone pay an $100 over "guide" for a $2000 coin they really really want, probably. But most transactions of common date, common grade material don't fall into the "really, really want" category. Just look around this forum at the number of people who try to transact off eBay from a seller to save 5 to 10%, who F&F on BST to save 3.5%. Demand will DROP if you increase prices. No one cares what you paid for it. They only care what they have to pay...and they will pay as little as possible. [Not that there's anything wrong with that.]
And good luck convincing someone to buy a coin because they will be okay if/when gold hits $3000. They want to pocket the difference between $2000 and $3000, not hope for $2500 just to break even.
There's a reason for that which is separate from traditional supply/demand factors affecting coins and our hobby. During the pandemic, with people having more disposable income and plenty of time, many newcomers came to our hobby. The stuff they bought was usually in the $50 - $1,000 range. They would buy medium-grades of coins and currency, driving the price up and moving the more pristine merchandise up, too. Usually, the latter moves the former.
We have seen that same phenomenon in houses. With interest rates spiking and home prices in the middle-to-upper end soaring from 2018-2022, lower-end homes lagged. But now with the cost of the high-end homes higher via pricing and also mortgage rates, people are flocking to lower-priced homes, condos, co-ops, and town houses. The $600,000 home they got outbid by $40,000 on is no longer affordable -- but they can buy a $300,000 2-BR condo no problem, even with higher rates.
Your strategy very closely mirrors my own for the majority of my purchases, and that’s what helps me rationalize spending the amount of money that I do. I think the coins worth about 4600 but I have to pay 5k? Big deal, the extra few hundred bucks is the cost of enjoyment. Now if I saw a truly special coin that I know is going to be a lifer in my collection and it rarely comes to market that nice? It’s harder to put a price on those, and I may have to stretch beyond what I initially thought. You have to be willing to set the record if you really like the coin, and not everyone is comfortable doing that.
I’ve had trouble even finding coins I want to buy lately. I would have thought that this market would have swayed more collectors to part with their coins but Im starting to realize a lot of the great coins are in really strong hands. Patience is key, I’ve been looking for the perfect saint in 66 for a couple years now, but I’ve been extremely picky about it and I’m enjoying the hunt.
Founder- Peak Rarities
Website
Instagram
Facebook
Ain't that the truth? With the constant concern expressed on the forum here about "greedy dealers", you wouldn't expect to see so many people trying to squeeze out an extra 3.5% on a deal when they're selling, would you?
LMAO. But everything is negotiable.
Out there in Cali everything more expensive.
There are many wealthy players attending Long Beach. It’s like the Rose Bowl of Coin Shows. This is a show where well off people will pay the money. Dealers know this. Many well stocked and in the drivers seat. For a multi millionaire interested in slabbed $20 Double Eagles paying a little more like buying gourmet burger (vs the average man). Especially if they stacking these just for fun or in anticipation of market upswing.
How much above CPG the dealers asking. Did you make counter offer? Sometimes dealers will pad material in anticipation of wealthy players in room. But have fallback number if counter offer. This especially true if regular customer who always wants x pct discount. It’s all fun and games. Sorta like a pass on 1st down. Everybody knows wealthy players want the best and will pay up. And with CAC identifying the best…….no free ride expect to pay the money.