@cladking said:
I'll probably have more to add to this when I have more time but I believe you are still missing the point. Despite the fact there are far fewer of some moderns than very popular old US or Swiss coins the attrition rate on moderns is through the roof. Old popular coins have high prices and very low attrition, usually well under 1% but most moderns have attrition rates as high as 3 to 5%. This means that after a few years there just are even fewer. The coins disappear forever and the few that were saved get whittled away year after year.
I'm quoting this extract but responding to your entire post.
Except for the price differences which do reflect a preference, you're just making the rest up. You have no evidence for any of your factual claims. The next thing I am going to hear from you is that these "moderns" are scarcer than the coins I collect or those collected by others here.
I have a lot of experience chasing moderns all over the world and am merely telling you of my own experience. Many of these coins simply can't be found until the price goes far higher and even then there aren't thousands coming out of the woodwork. The coins weren't saved so higher prices can't produce them. Just because a few coins are more common than my estimates it doesn't change the accuracy of other estimates. I always knew these estimates were based on a lot of guesswork and assumptions. But there is a great deal of legwork and knowledge involved as well.
>
You just don't get it and never will. It's irrelevant that you went all over the world. Your experience is not more representative than what's on eBay (which isn't representative either) because you can only be in one place at a particular time where you have no knowledge of what's for sale anywhere else. How can you not understand that?
The reason you are wrong is because your assumptions of collector behavior are wrong. It's as simple as that. Read my last reply for three examples. Earlier in this thread, you told me you can't be wrong about "everything". Well, I don't know what you mean about "everything" but where I have disagreed with your premises, you are wrong about that. Look at your assumptions and tell me where is the evidence to support that people act like you claim? The answer is they don't.
@Sergey74 said:
Why do you think about only Swiss modern coins? You can "save" all world coins.
I'm quite confident there are plenty of post-1967 Swiss base metal coins in high quality over in Europe and throughout the US. Since I don't assume people hate this coinage, I concurrently assume it's mostly in Switzerland and the bordering countries. Switzerland isn't an economic backwater or numismatic dessert, and neither are the bordering countries where tens of thousands of collectors (minimum) presumably have the opportunity to save it if they want to where there is no actual reason to believe many of them don't. That's what collectors do, they collect coins.
I have no idea why anyone would ever think what they see is reflective of the scarcity for any coin, unless it's really common. Usually, the supply for sale isn't representative of the availability due to the price, especially when evaluating coins where most of it is almost certainly owned on another continent.
As an example, when I have looked for US draped bust /SE half dollars (1796-1797), I have never failed to see it every time in at least XF. My recollection is that somewhere between 275-350 exist. It's a five-figure coin minimum but obviously, if coins like this are not hard to buy, it's something other than scarcity which makes low priced coins somewhat difficult to find 99%+ of the time.
This Swiss coinage isn't hard to find, if the person looks in the right place (eBay).
The reason you are wrong is because your assumptions of collector behavior are wrong.
I often refer to our species as "homo circularis ratiocinatio" (circularly reasoning man). Obviously if my assumptions are wrong I will end up at those incorrect assumptions, just like you. The real difference here is that I have extensive experience and knowledge of these markets so my assumptions might be more accurate than yours. I'm the one who has sought the coins for half a century. I'm the one who has seen them corrode away. I'm the one who hasn't found many despite extensive searching.
I might well be wrong but if I am then why are Russian, Chinese, and Indian coins (soon to include Brazilian) going through the roof. Am I supposed to believe even common coins can go through the roof if people start collecting them? No! They are going through the roof because for the first time these "scarce" coins are being sought by collectors and they can't find them just as I couldn't find them. And, no, I'm not suggesting they are rarer than the coins others here collect. I am stating flat out that most modern are far scarcer than collectors believe and that in some cases they are far scarcer than popular coins collected by large numbers of people.
I'm quite confident there are plenty of post-1967 Swiss base metal coins in high quality over in Europe and throughout the US. Since I don't assume people hate this coinage, I concurrently assume it's mostly in Switzerland and the bordering countries. Switzerland isn't an economic backwater or numismatic dessert, and neither are the bordering countries where tens of thousands of collectors (minimum) presumably have the opportunity to save it if they want to where there is no actual reason to believe many of them don't. That's what collectors do, they collect coins.
That the coins don't exist is not merely a function of people hating them. As I've pointed out many times in these conversations there are numerous ways coins used to be saved beyond what collectors held out AND NONE of these things apply to bas4e metal coins. Historically more coins have been saved inadvertently than intentionally in regard to high denomination coins. Base metal coins are rarely saved inadvertently for more than a very few years. Bad money drives good money out of circulation also means that bad money circulates.
Things like the Dominican 1897 Peso circulated just like base metal coins. This is exceptional for silver.
Earlier in this thread, you also told me you have better things to do than track down every coin. But apparently, it makes complete sense for others to travel across the country if not the world to sell Swiss “moderns” for the insignificant amounts its worth to your local dealer for you to find.
Aside from this “hate” claim, you rely on your unrepresentative personal experience and the few other collectors you know over independent verifiable data, like the TPG populations. It’s not just your ignorance of statistical methods though that’s enough to refute your claim, it’s that no dealer or combination of dealers you have visited over your entire life carries representative inventory either. If I were to ask your dealers if they did and insisted it is true like you have been doing here, they would think I was nuts. It makes absolutely no sense.
I think this demonstrates a misunderstanding of how coins "circulate" after they are removed from circulation. Circulation is by definition "random" but once coins are on the secondary market it is anything but "random" Rather they become "samples" because most coins only get on the secondary market after the original owner passes on. When Swiss coins "walk" into a coin shop there will be dozens and dozens of old coins for every modern. Just as today most roll searchers are seeking old coins so did the owners of the Swiss coins. So what happens is old Swiss coins come into shops and not mint sets and most assuredly not rolls of BU moderns. This is representative of what exists. It is a microcosm or a sampling of what exists. There are no rolls of moderns so they aren't available on eBay despite the new higher prices. If they were available I'd have seen them in shops and lists for the last 50 years. There's just an occasional low mintage very high quality and now rapidly eroding mint set with no apparent demand selling for very low prices. We know the mintage so a low price indicates very very little demand. even as these coins are disappearing and corroding the tiny mintages mean nothing in light of the tinier demand.
This is changing now for a very simple reason I predicted long ago; the new generation of collectors doesn't hate base metal coins to the degree we did. The coin hobby is changing and demand for moderns, while small, is still far higher than for four generations of collectors (since 1945) who hated moderns. The coins may never be "popular" per se but in the coin collecting hobby success breeds success. People see prices soaring on something and want to get in on it. This happens in every human endeavor but it seems to be most powerful in collecting and coins in particular.
In other words the incredible increases may barely be even started. Much depends on supply but even more depends on demand. At this moment there may be as few as 2000 1971 Swiss mint sets surviving and if my experience is any guide most of the coins in them are "tarnished". Sure, most can be saved now but if these coins are ignored much longer then maybe they can not.
I'm not sure I've made this point before so will now.
There were a lot of people back in the '60's and '70's who could afford to set aside rolls and bags of francs with a face value of 70c. Even though 70c was a lot of money to most people there were still a few individuals who were earning $10,000 per year or more. The lack of rolls and bags of Swiss coins merely shows that those who could afford it were saving something else like rolls and bags of the old silver coins or rare dates from the 1800's.
This leaves just a few thousand pristine coins of each date in the mint sets. Of course the point of this thread is that these "pristine" coins are under a haze and tarnish right now and the longer they stay this way the less likely they will ever be pristine again.
I've found and restored most of the rest of my Swiss mint sets. It looks like about 75% of them are OK after a soak in acetone. I have no idea how fast this percentage will drop going forward but I'd wager few of the sets have already been soaked. Half of the sets are gone forever lost to fire, flood, and avalanche. Most of the surviving sets are intact and tarnished.
I found another stack of sets that were stored under ideal conditions. These looked only a little better than the others but more than 95% were restored to perfect condition. I believe it's the storage conditions that made the biggest difference in the outcome but there are two other differences.
These sets were mostly later date '70's sets and the others were more evenly distributed in the '70's.
Also this time the initial soak in alcohol wasn't as effective but they came out of detergent alright.
IMS I don't have very many more sets so probably won't update this thread. I'm still working on the coins that are tarnished but don't have much hope.
Comments
I'm quoting this extract but responding to your entire post.
Except for the price differences which do reflect a preference, you're just making the rest up. You have no evidence for any of your factual claims. The next thing I am going to hear from you is that these "moderns" are scarcer than the coins I collect or those collected by others here.
.> @cladking said:
>
You just don't get it and never will. It's irrelevant that you went all over the world. Your experience is not more representative than what's on eBay (which isn't representative either) because you can only be in one place at a particular time where you have no knowledge of what's for sale anywhere else. How can you not understand that?
The reason you are wrong is because your assumptions of collector behavior are wrong. It's as simple as that. Read my last reply for three examples. Earlier in this thread, you told me you can't be wrong about "everything". Well, I don't know what you mean about "everything" but where I have disagreed with your premises, you are wrong about that. Look at your assumptions and tell me where is the evidence to support that people act like you claim? The answer is they don't.
I'm quite confident there are plenty of post-1967 Swiss base metal coins in high quality over in Europe and throughout the US. Since I don't assume people hate this coinage, I concurrently assume it's mostly in Switzerland and the bordering countries. Switzerland isn't an economic backwater or numismatic dessert, and neither are the bordering countries where tens of thousands of collectors (minimum) presumably have the opportunity to save it if they want to where there is no actual reason to believe many of them don't. That's what collectors do, they collect coins.
I have no idea why anyone would ever think what they see is reflective of the scarcity for any coin, unless it's really common. Usually, the supply for sale isn't representative of the availability due to the price, especially when evaluating coins where most of it is almost certainly owned on another continent.
As an example, when I have looked for US draped bust /SE half dollars (1796-1797), I have never failed to see it every time in at least XF. My recollection is that somewhere between 275-350 exist. It's a five-figure coin minimum but obviously, if coins like this are not hard to buy, it's something other than scarcity which makes low priced coins somewhat difficult to find 99%+ of the time.
This Swiss coinage isn't hard to find, if the person looks in the right place (eBay).
I often refer to our species as "homo circularis ratiocinatio" (circularly reasoning man). Obviously if my assumptions are wrong I will end up at those incorrect assumptions, just like you. The real difference here is that I have extensive experience and knowledge of these markets so my assumptions might be more accurate than yours. I'm the one who has sought the coins for half a century. I'm the one who has seen them corrode away. I'm the one who hasn't found many despite extensive searching.
I might well be wrong but if I am then why are Russian, Chinese, and Indian coins (soon to include Brazilian) going through the roof. Am I supposed to believe even common coins can go through the roof if people start collecting them? No! They are going through the roof because for the first time these "scarce" coins are being sought by collectors and they can't find them just as I couldn't find them. And, no, I'm not suggesting they are rarer than the coins others here collect. I am stating flat out that most modern are far scarcer than collectors believe and that in some cases they are far scarcer than popular coins collected by large numbers of people.
That the coins don't exist is not merely a function of people hating them. As I've pointed out many times in these conversations there are numerous ways coins used to be saved beyond what collectors held out AND NONE of these things apply to bas4e metal coins. Historically more coins have been saved inadvertently than intentionally in regard to high denomination coins. Base metal coins are rarely saved inadvertently for more than a very few years. Bad money drives good money out of circulation also means that bad money circulates.
Things like the Dominican 1897 Peso circulated just like base metal coins. This is exceptional for silver.
I think this demonstrates a misunderstanding of how coins "circulate" after they are removed from circulation. Circulation is by definition "random" but once coins are on the secondary market it is anything but "random" Rather they become "samples" because most coins only get on the secondary market after the original owner passes on. When Swiss coins "walk" into a coin shop there will be dozens and dozens of old coins for every modern. Just as today most roll searchers are seeking old coins so did the owners of the Swiss coins. So what happens is old Swiss coins come into shops and not mint sets and most assuredly not rolls of BU moderns. This is representative of what exists. It is a microcosm or a sampling of what exists. There are no rolls of moderns so they aren't available on eBay despite the new higher prices. If they were available I'd have seen them in shops and lists for the last 50 years. There's just an occasional low mintage very high quality and now rapidly eroding mint set with no apparent demand selling for very low prices. We know the mintage so a low price indicates very very little demand. even as these coins are disappearing and corroding the tiny mintages mean nothing in light of the tinier demand.
This is changing now for a very simple reason I predicted long ago; the new generation of collectors doesn't hate base metal coins to the degree we did. The coin hobby is changing and demand for moderns, while small, is still far higher than for four generations of collectors (since 1945) who hated moderns. The coins may never be "popular" per se but in the coin collecting hobby success breeds success. People see prices soaring on something and want to get in on it. This happens in every human endeavor but it seems to be most powerful in collecting and coins in particular.
In other words the incredible increases may barely be even started. Much depends on supply but even more depends on demand. At this moment there may be as few as 2000 1971 Swiss mint sets surviving and if my experience is any guide most of the coins in them are "tarnished". Sure, most can be saved now but if these coins are ignored much longer then maybe they can not.
I'm not sure I've made this point before so will now.
There were a lot of people back in the '60's and '70's who could afford to set aside rolls and bags of francs with a face value of 70c. Even though 70c was a lot of money to most people there were still a few individuals who were earning $10,000 per year or more. The lack of rolls and bags of Swiss coins merely shows that those who could afford it were saving something else like rolls and bags of the old silver coins or rare dates from the 1800's.
This leaves just a few thousand pristine coins of each date in the mint sets. Of course the point of this thread is that these "pristine" coins are under a haze and tarnish right now and the longer they stay this way the less likely they will ever be pristine again.
I've found and restored most of the rest of my Swiss mint sets. It looks like about 75% of them are OK after a soak in acetone. I have no idea how fast this percentage will drop going forward but I'd wager few of the sets have already been soaked. Half of the sets are gone forever lost to fire, flood, and avalanche. Most of the surviving sets are intact and tarnished.
I found another stack of sets that were stored under ideal conditions. These looked only a little better than the others but more than 95% were restored to perfect condition. I believe it's the storage conditions that made the biggest difference in the outcome but there are two other differences.
These sets were mostly later date '70's sets and the others were more evenly distributed in the '70's.
Also this time the initial soak in alcohol wasn't as effective but they came out of detergent alright.
IMS I don't have very many more sets so probably won't update this thread. I'm still working on the coins that are tarnished but don't have much hope.