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Panini and Backyard Breaks pulling a scam?

Really interesting thread on the mathematical unlikeliness of Backyard Breaks pulling so many rare cards.

Check it out here.

The long and short of it:
In conclusion, 1 of 3 things MUST be true.

  1. Backyard opened $40M+ of these products AND got 1:200 lucky.
  2. Backyard opened less than $40M of these products, but got absurdly lucky (≈ 1:117,605).
  3. Someone is giving Backyard loaded boxes.

You tell me which is most likely.

Comments

  • GansetttimeGansetttime Posts: 218 ✭✭✭

    Honestly, is anyone surprised that boxes are loaded for top breakers? Who better to promote the product?

  • Nathaniel1960Nathaniel1960 Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Flawless boxes are $10K? Wow.

    Kiss me once, shame on you.
    Kiss me twice.....let's party.
  • CrashingwavesCrashingwaves Posts: 170 ✭✭✭

    The math doesn't lie.... something is up. None of us are surprised but great to see some light shine on the shenanigans. It has been happening for years, but it feels like the last few have been exceptional. I also feel the social influencers breaking on IG etc get loaded boxes.

    On a similar topic.... When receiving a replacement for a high-end redemption, it was also shocking to see another case hit be used as the replacement.... and this has had many of us wondering... do the cared companies hold back some big hits? If high end replacements are available... does that mean they were not included in the product? Seems fishy... even if the company still had unopened boxes.

  • 82FootballWaxMemorys82FootballWaxMemorys Posts: 1,258 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 18, 2022 6:36AM

    SARCASM - Hard to believe anything less than honorable would occur with Sports Cards. - END SARCASM

    IMHO at least with real gambling there is governance. Not so with what is akin to gambling on modern sports cards.

    BTW anyone who purchases anything based on the 2 pop-tart bags depicted in the post above gets what they deserve.

    Unless otherwise specified my posts represent only my opinion, not fact.

  • craig44craig44 Posts: 10,240 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ArtVandelay said:

    these guys would have been abused in my High School...

    George Brett, Bobby Orr and Terry Bradshaw.

  • erikthredderikthredd Posts: 7,892 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Looks like there is actual proof of knowing which boxes have hits before breaking them open.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0o_TqQXju0U

  • This all kinda falls in line with how one should not ever buy single, or multiple, blaster boxes or other from major card distributors. Example being, I bought two Nascar blaster cases a couple months ago. There were 20 boxes in each case. When opening them, I notated which box position any hits came from. Then, with the 2nd case, I was able to pull 4 boxes from the case, open, and get four hits. The rest of the case had diddly. Sooooo.. moral of the story is.. the larger distributors who buy hundreds of cases or whatever from the maker, can easily test it and then pull boxes from cases based on known hit box position in the case. The remaining boxes then get sold off knowing no chance at the big hit for the buyer. It's ugly.

  • erikthredderikthredd Posts: 7,892 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ArtVandelay said:

    Looka like Backyard Breaks may be at it again. Fiirst they scammed (kept) a Trevor Lawrence Gold Kaboom from a customer that was pulled in a free giveaway then just recently a BGS 9.5/10 Giannis Rookie Auto from a break on WhatNot never made it to the customer. BB offered a comparable replacement then that card never arrived either. After the customer started posting the story on social media the owner got involved offering two replacements. What happened to the Giannis Rc and the first repolacement though lol? 🤷‍♂️
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsjdppbMnN8

  • GroceryRackPackGroceryRackPack Posts: 2,336 ✭✭✭✭✭

    This is one of many reasons on why I want to get out of this industry...

  • pab1969pab1969 Posts: 1,053 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @BBBrkrr said:

    @GroceryRackPack said:
    This is one of many reasons on why I want to get out of this industry...

    This is one of the many reasons I find it very difficult to develop any interest in collecting anything new. No thanks.

    Well said!

  • 19591959 Posts: 596 ✭✭✭

    Well written!!!!!!

  • JolleyWrencherJolleyWrencher Posts: 596 ✭✭✭

    Since we are all noble collectors and wish to expose the scam artists...why don't we expose these individuals and run them out of town. Make it so bad that they will never want to be on a camera again.

    Figure out where they live, put signs up all around, send mail to their neighbors about not trusting these people, encourage local businesses not to serve them, and get these jockstraps out of business.

    Or better yet, let's just rob them like they do to others. I'll never forget the kid who stole a 1/4lb of grass from me in the early 2000s. I ended up with his brand new Xbox and games but the best part was that he was cut off from everyone for being a shady little bastard. OK scratch the robbing idea.

    So...back to where I started...us noble individuals.

    What's it called when you call the cops during a live show...swatting? That would be funny to see the crop top get arrested live.

  • CakesCakes Posts: 3,430 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Ridethelightning said:
    This all kinda falls in line with how one should not ever buy single, or multiple, blaster boxes or other from major card distributors. Example being, I bought two Nascar blaster cases a couple months ago. There were 20 boxes in each case. When opening them, I notated which box position any hits came from. Then, with the 2nd case, I was able to pull 4 boxes from the case, open, and get four hits. The rest of the case had diddly. Sooooo.. moral of the story is.. the larger distributors who buy hundreds of cases or whatever from the maker, can easily test it and then pull boxes from cases based on known hit box position in the case. The remaining boxes then get sold off knowing no chance at the big hit for the buyer. It's ugly.

    I was aware of certain sequences, etc. but I was not aware of this. Thank you!

    Successful coin BST transactions with Gerard and segoja.

    Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
  • erikthredderikthredd Posts: 7,892 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @1959 said:
    Well written!!!!!!

    If that was meant for me, I was afraid that my comment might disappear after I made an edit. Unfortunately that tends to happen quite frequently here especially when you go to edit a comment where you quoted someone.

  • Stone193Stone193 Posts: 24,350 ✭✭✭✭✭

    On the hobby?

    I'm in a bit of a funk over all the crap going on; I follow it on a few channels on youtube.

    It's almost entertaining.

    I'm pretty much on sidelines now and have made very few purchases; when I do it's oddball stuff that no one here would be interested in.

    Tho. I'm still happy I have a few hobbies to keep me busy.

    Mike
  • RidethelightningRidethelightning Posts: 362 ✭✭✭

    One billion % and I’ll add my mom in this agree.

    Moronic to trust any of that stuff nowadays.

  • RidethelightningRidethelightning Posts: 362 ✭✭✭

    @Stone193 said:
    On the hobby?

    I'm in a bit of a funk over all the crap going on; I follow it on a few channels on youtube.

    It's almost entertaining.

    I'm pretty much on sidelines now and have made very few purchases; when I do it's oddball stuff that no one here would be interested in.

    Tho. I'm still happy I have a few hobbies to keep me busy.

    Stone ! Basement pics needed 😎

  • BBBrkrrBBBrkrr Posts: 890 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @pab1969 said:
    Just my opinion but, having someone else open a box of cards that I paid for (with the possibility of getting scammed out of my cards) is the same as using any vault services to store my cards (Also with the possibility of getting scammed out of my cards). Boxes should be opened by me, and the cards should be kept in my house for me to enjoy.

    100% agree. Also the reason I won't use vaults and won't even consider it for any company that isn't completely stable. What happens if one (PWCC for instance) just goes bankrupt or discontinues the service? Then I'm on the hook for a huge tax bill all at once. I'd rather pay the tax and have them at my house to enjoy when i want.

  • ndleondleo Posts: 4,039 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The hobby sorta did this to themselves when modern box prices went parabolic. $10K for Flawless? I paid $1000-$1500 "back in the day" for my birthday as a treat to myself. I used to buy a few cases of Optic FB Hobby and Blasters just to rip, now I get 1 or 2 hobby and that's it (around $1600).

    Junkies need a fix and the breaks give them access to products they couldn't buy themselves.

    If you are following the Fanatics takeover of our hobby, it's clear that breaking is here to stay and will most likely be promoted harder. And since Fanatics will own the box supply..........you can do the math.

    Mike
  • Nathaniel1960Nathaniel1960 Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I like to watch breaks and add comments in the chat but I would never participate. I don’t like the way they handle the cards.

    Kiss me once, shame on you.
    Kiss me twice.....let's party.
  • daltexdaltex Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @BBBrkrr said:

    @pab1969 said:
    Just my opinion but, having someone else open a box of cards that I paid for (with the possibility of getting scammed out of my cards) is the same as using any vault services to store my cards (Also with the possibility of getting scammed out of my cards). Boxes should be opened by me, and the cards should be kept in my house for me to enjoy.

    100% agree. Also the reason I won't use vaults and won't even consider it for any company that isn't completely stable. What happens if one (PWCC for instance) just goes bankrupt or discontinues the service? Then I'm on the hook for a huge tax bill all at once. I'd rather pay the tax and have them at my house to enjoy when i want.

    And, of course, better a huge tax bill all at once than losing the cards due to theft or a bankruptcy trustee treating all the cards as assets of the company and you just a creditor.

  • 80sOPC80sOPC Posts: 1,194 ✭✭✭✭✭

    None of this stuff surprises me, the hobby has always had these > @BBBrkrr said:

    @pab1969 said:
    Just my opinion but, having someone else open a box of cards that I paid for (with the possibility of getting scammed out of my cards) is the same as using any vault services to store my cards (Also with the possibility of getting scammed out of my cards). Boxes should be opened by me, and the cards should be kept in my house for me to enjoy.

    100% agree. Also the reason I won't use vaults and won't even consider it for any company that isn't completely stable. What happens if one (PWCC for instance) just goes bankrupt or discontinues the service? Then I'm on the hook for a huge tax bill all at once. I'd rather pay the tax and have them at my house to enjoy when i want.

    Or worse, a creditor has claim on your cards. This has happened in the wine storage business where folks lost millions of dollars on rare wines. When a business fails, it fails fast, and unless you have audit rights, you are taking a big chance leaving your cards in a third parties hands.

  • 3stars3stars Posts: 2,278 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I'd rather have a 15 with the house having a face card showing. At least there is a chance.

    Previous transactions: Wondercoin, goldman86, dmarks, Type2
  • JolleyWrencherJolleyWrencher Posts: 596 ✭✭✭

    @3stars said:
    I'd rather have a 15 with the house having a face card showing. At least there is a chance.

    So you're telling me there's
    a chance. -Lloyd Christmas

  • ReggieClevelandReggieCleveland Posts: 3,853 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @tulsaboy said:
    This is also why the whole approach to production and collecting used by modern cards is fundamentally broken. There is no joy in opening packs for the base cards. It's simply a quest for the "hit." It would almost be simpler for manufacturers to just fill a box with packs full of blank cardboard, except for the "hit" pack, because the base cards are, for the most part, simply discarded. Modern has turned into just another lottery ticket- a process of buying tons of product, dreaming of the one big hit that will make it all worthwhile. It's a fool's errand, and a pursuit that leaves most every purchaser squarely in the hole. I couldn't care less about the "hits." I love collecting baseball cards, and so every year, like I have for a long time, I buy packs and assemble a set of Topps base by hand. It costs about $400 to do, and sometimes I have to trade to get the last few cards. But it's fun, and my kids and I have fun opening the packs and talking about the teams and players. Occasionally we get something unexpected or fun, like a little relic or signature card, but never once have we opened a pack with a 1/1, or 1/5, or similar. Frankly, I couldn't care less. I'm not opening the packs for the big hits. I'm opening them for fun and to assemble a set. That makes me happy. The fact that the moden industry has devolved into a situation where folks are gaming the cases to find the hits, then staging breaks, and then even scamming people on the breaks? That's just sad. I would love for Fanatics to throttle back on the parallels, eliminate about 2/3 of the various dumb sets, and return some of the fun and value to the basic product. It won't happen, but it would sure be neat.
    kevin

    While what you describe is clearly your own personal experience, when I read it it made me feel like you don't really follow the modern market at all. One of the great things about today's modern market is the draw to base cards (both with and without parallels) of both major established stars and the hot new rookies. I would say the main deciding factor in what I rip is based on the likelihood of me at least hitting some base cards that I can add to my collection. I certainly don't care about the grossly overproduced patches or the autos from $1 players. I don't rip looking for those.

    At the risk of sounding like a completely obnoxious contrarian, I think case breaks are a great thing, too, and I participate in many. If you're only interested in one player, you get the advantage of getting everything they have in an entire case of unopened boxes for a mere fraction of the cost of the actual case. How can you beat that?

    I've done probably over a dozen breaks for 2023 Prizm UFC and the odds are you're going to get at least one parallel and decent that you hit an auto. The fighter I'm collecting is not currently "hot" so I'm winning their spots for $6-$10 each. Even if I only pull 5-7 base RCs, that's still good fodder for a PSA sub. Isn't it better to drop $300 and get all of the best player's cards than drop $3500 on a case and get loaded down with a bunch of stuff you have to try to flip in order to regain $3000+?

    Arthur

  • jfkheatjfkheat Posts: 2,716 ✭✭✭✭✭

    There is no way I could watch those guys through an entire break.

  • tulsaboytulsaboy Posts: 281 ✭✭✭

    Arthur,
    One of the things that I think is fantastic about this hobby is that there are an infinite number of different ways to collect and to enjoy the collecting experience. I would agree that my comments relate to my perspective on the modern market, and those observations draw on watching how things seem to transpire in a variety of groups (and in simply watching folks at the National sit and rip through thousands of dollars of modern, and literally walk the base cards over to the trash can.) I'm confident, and your comments support my confidence, that there are a lot of folks who like the modern market just the way it is, and get a lot of fulfillment out of quests for particular players, teams, or parallels. You don't come across as an obnoxious contrarian, simply someone who enjoys the hobby differently than I do. And that's great! My comments were intended as my own opinions and observations, which unquestionably are colored by the way I like to collect. I'm much more comfortable in vintage, and my only modern dalliances involve base Topps baseball. From my perspective, though, the sheer quantity of parallels, inserts, numbered cards, and even overall sets are out of control. I am hopeful that Fanatics reigns it in some, but I know that if the present scheme makes the most money, Fanatics will leave it just as it is.
    kevin

    @ReggieCleveland said:

    @tulsaboy said:
    This is also why the whole approach to production and collecting used by modern cards is fundamentally broken. There is no joy in opening packs for the base cards. It's simply a quest for the "hit." It would almost be simpler for manufacturers to just fill a box with packs full of blank cardboard, except for the "hit" pack, because the base cards are, for the most part, simply discarded. Modern has turned into just another lottery ticket- a process of buying tons of product, dreaming of the one big hit that will make it all worthwhile. It's a fool's errand, and a pursuit that leaves most every purchaser squarely in the hole. I couldn't care less about the "hits." I love collecting baseball cards, and so every year, like I have for a long time, I buy packs and assemble a set of Topps base by hand. It costs about $400 to do, and sometimes I have to trade to get the last few cards. But it's fun, and my kids and I have fun opening the packs and talking about the teams and players. Occasionally we get something unexpected or fun, like a little relic or signature card, but never once have we opened a pack with a 1/1, or 1/5, or similar. Frankly, I couldn't care less. I'm not opening the packs for the big hits. I'm opening them for fun and to assemble a set. That makes me happy. The fact that the moden industry has devolved into a situation where folks are gaming the cases to find the hits, then staging breaks, and then even scamming people on the breaks? That's just sad. I would love for Fanatics to throttle back on the parallels, eliminate about 2/3 of the various dumb sets, and return some of the fun and value to the basic product. It won't happen, but it would sure be neat.
    kevin

    While what you describe is clearly your own personal experience, when I read it it made me feel like you don't really follow the modern market at all. One of the great things about today's modern market is the draw to base cards (both with and without parallels) of both major established stars and the hot new rookies. I would say the main deciding factor in what I rip is based on the likelihood of me at least hitting some base cards that I can add to my collection. I certainly don't care about the grossly overproduced patches or the autos from $1 players. I don't rip looking for those.

    At the risk of sounding like a completely obnoxious contrarian, I think case breaks are a great thing, too, and I participate in many. If you're only interested in one player, you get the advantage of getting everything they have in an entire case of unopened boxes for a mere fraction of the cost of the actual case. How can you beat that?

    I've done probably over a dozen breaks for 2023 Prizm UFC and the odds are you're going to get at least one parallel and decent that you hit an auto. The fighter I'm collecting is not currently "hot" so I'm winning their spots for $6-$10 each. Even if I only pull 5-7 base RCs, that's still good fodder for a PSA sub. Isn't it better to drop $300 and get all of the best player's cards than drop $3500 on a case and get loaded down with a bunch of stuff you have to try to flip in order to regain $3000+?

    Arthur

  • ReggieClevelandReggieCleveland Posts: 3,853 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @tulsaboy said:
    Arthur,
    One of the things that I think is fantastic about this hobby is that there are an infinite number of different ways to collect and to enjoy the collecting experience. I would agree that my comments relate to my perspective on the modern market, and those observations draw on watching how things seem to transpire in a variety of groups (and in simply watching folks at the National sit and rip through thousands of dollars of modern, and literally walk the base cards over to the trash can.) I'm confident, and your comments support my confidence, that there are a lot of folks who like the modern market just the way it is, and get a lot of fulfillment out of quests for particular players, teams, or parallels. You don't come across as an obnoxious contrarian, simply someone who enjoys the hobby differently than I do. And that's great! My comments were intended as my own opinions and observations, which unquestionably are colored by the way I like to collect. I'm much more comfortable in vintage, and my only modern dalliances involve base Topps baseball. From my perspective, though, the sheer quantity of parallels, inserts, numbered cards, and even overall sets are out of control. I am hopeful that Fanatics reigns it in some, but I know that if the present scheme makes the most money, Fanatics will leave it just as it is.
    kevin

    @ReggieCleveland said:

    @tulsaboy said:
    This is also why the whole approach to production and collecting used by modern cards is fundamentally broken. There is no joy in opening packs for the base cards. It's simply a quest for the "hit." It would almost be simpler for manufacturers to just fill a box with packs full of blank cardboard, except for the "hit" pack, because the base cards are, for the most part, simply discarded. Modern has turned into just another lottery ticket- a process of buying tons of product, dreaming of the one big hit that will make it all worthwhile. It's a fool's errand, and a pursuit that leaves most every purchaser squarely in the hole. I couldn't care less about the "hits." I love collecting baseball cards, and so every year, like I have for a long time, I buy packs and assemble a set of Topps base by hand. It costs about $400 to do, and sometimes I have to trade to get the last few cards. But it's fun, and my kids and I have fun opening the packs and talking about the teams and players. Occasionally we get something unexpected or fun, like a little relic or signature card, but never once have we opened a pack with a 1/1, or 1/5, or similar. Frankly, I couldn't care less. I'm not opening the packs for the big hits. I'm opening them for fun and to assemble a set. That makes me happy. The fact that the moden industry has devolved into a situation where folks are gaming the cases to find the hits, then staging breaks, and then even scamming people on the breaks? That's just sad. I would love for Fanatics to throttle back on the parallels, eliminate about 2/3 of the various dumb sets, and return some of the fun and value to the basic product. It won't happen, but it would sure be neat.
    kevin

    While what you describe is clearly your own personal experience, when I read it it made me feel like you don't really follow the modern market at all. One of the great things about today's modern market is the draw to base cards (both with and without parallels) of both major established stars and the hot new rookies. I would say the main deciding factor in what I rip is based on the likelihood of me at least hitting some base cards that I can add to my collection. I certainly don't care about the grossly overproduced patches or the autos from $1 players. I don't rip looking for those.

    At the risk of sounding like a completely obnoxious contrarian, I think case breaks are a great thing, too, and I participate in many. If you're only interested in one player, you get the advantage of getting everything they have in an entire case of unopened boxes for a mere fraction of the cost of the actual case. How can you beat that?

    I've done probably over a dozen breaks for 2023 Prizm UFC and the odds are you're going to get at least one parallel and decent that you hit an auto. The fighter I'm collecting is not currently "hot" so I'm winning their spots for $6-$10 each. Even if I only pull 5-7 base RCs, that's still good fodder for a PSA sub. Isn't it better to drop $300 and get all of the best player's cards than drop $3500 on a case and get loaded down with a bunch of stuff you have to try to flip in order to regain $3000+?

    Arthur

    Kevin, thanks for a thoughtful and insightful response. About 95% of my hobby friends collect vintage and prewar so I was probably projecting a bit, so I apologize. I'm just used to those guys describing the modern hobby the way it was 20 years ago, which was very much driven by "the hit" and then the handful of base cards getting tossed in the trash.

    The best thing that's happened to the hobby in the last 20 years was MLB's RC emblem rule for base cards starting in 2008. If you're not familiar with it (or if others reading this aren't) they made it so that a player cannot have a base card in a MLB licensed set if they haven't played at least one game in MLB. What this did was essentially create two markets -- one for a player's 1st Bowman (technically an insert, although has the same design as the base cards) and a player's RC cards when they finally get the call.

    It used to be that once a player came up and played well, everyone scampered back a few years to find their Bowman cards and those were the ones that carried all of the market. But now the player has RC cards released all season long and it's brought the fun of collecting RCs back as a current event, something you can do in real time while the player is ripping it up. Their base RCs have become extremely popular and the different levels of parallels have allowed everyone to get involved in collecting the same card, the degree of rarity is just determined by their budget.

    Modern collecting has become tied with social media and online message boards. People love to be able to share their pickups and interact with other collectors and now someone spending $20 on a card can share in the excitement with someone spending $20,000. It's the same card, one is just a much rarer parallel. We saw in 2018 & 2019 the base RCs for Soto and Acuna become the hottest things alive and I'm not sure they ever got over $20 raw.

    Just like now. The go-to RC cards for players like JRod, Witt, JPena, and Wander are their Topps/Update Chrome/Update base cards. The days of ripping a box for a cheap auto and throwing everything else out are over. Chances are much more likely that you'll make your money back on the base cards than you will on any insert or "hit."

    But I also run in certain circles and I have no doubt that some people still do that. I've just learned over the last decades to NEVER throw anything out. Errors, variations, short prints, weird stuff shows up many years later. I've developed the most comprehensive list of such things for the 1990 Donruss set. That's right, the 1990 Donruss set. I'll attempt to hang onto my pride by not telling you how many cases of that I've ripped.

    I guess my point is, don't lose faith. There are a lot more true collectors out there than you think. A lot of them are right here on this board.

    Arthur

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